The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.
The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.
With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.
UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.
UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.
Hung parliament territory if Morgan and Resolve trend is accurate.
The Teal/Bandt/Wilkie may well get the BoP which is a disaster for the fossil fuel cartel.
Some on PB now looking for Newspoll to save them after bagging them for 3 years.
I swear to god Australia…
There really isn’t any point trying to reason or unskew.
The poll stands as a data point, everything about it smells wrong – but the only way to see will be on Saturday night.
… @Rex – if the poll were to be close to the mark… the Senate will be a disaster. The cartel will be solid and pleased. Be careful what you wish for…
It’s an outlier but keeps everyone on their toes.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:42 pm
Hung parliament territory if Morgan and Resolve trend is accurate.
The Teal/Bandt/Wilkie may well get the BoP which is a disaster for the fossil fuel cartel.
…but very good news for the Lying Reactionaries, since there is no way under the sun the Lite will be the midwives to a Labor government.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:42 pm
Hung parliament territory if Morgan and Resolve trend is accurate.
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With a 7.5% swing against lib/nats the only way it could be a hung parliament
If Labor primary vote decreases , Labor primary vote increase by 1% is a comfortable Labor majority
If the unemployment rate has a three in front of it on Thursday, Morrison will believe his miracle could happen again. It will dominate his message over the following two days – up to 6pm Saturday.
Dr Bonham on Resolve…
This is the lowest combined major party vote in any poll this term. I don’t believe it’s quite that low + tend to regard this sort of thing as a signal of errors.
But FWIW if we did get this on election night (I predict we won’t) it would be touch and go between ALP majority and minority and the Senate counts would be boiling with chaos.
Look, the Pollyannas have been getting a good run for the past week or so, it’s time the Cassandras had a decent go.
Resolve are suggesting that Labor’s PV will have fallen to a level a couple of points below the low-tide mark recorded in 2019. This would be a remarkably good result for the Lying Reactionaries, their mimics, clones, delegates and trainees, as well as for the Labor-phobic Greens, Rupert Murdoch, Peter Costello and Kerry Stokes.
@Al – while I disagree, and don’t think much is going to change the result … Labor does need to be very clear and firm on true unemployment and not let Morrison dominate.
Al Pal says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:46 pm
If the unemployment rate has a three in front of it on Thursday, Morrison will believe his miracle could happen again. It will dominate his message over the following two days – up to 6pm Saturday.
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How many Australians would actually believe that figure
This is why I wake in the middle of the night having panic attacks.
Polls can be rosy for months but when it comes to putting pencil to paper
Aussie voters are a fickle mob.
@mikeK from previous thread
The teals should more accurately be called community independents. They’re trying to use the successful Cathy McGowan model (voices of) to try and do things differently. They’re not recommending preferences because they’re trying to break the old party structure which is riven with factionalism on both sides, and to appeal across their electorates.
In my case here in Page, Hanabeth is courting everyone, including non rusted on nats supporters sick of being ignored. What’s to be gained by suggesting preferences? Our message is just make sure you vote 1 Hanabeth and number the rest as you see fit, IF we make the 2CP it won’t matter anyway, and if not then the voter still gets their second choice. Preferencing anyone on balance loses more votes than it wins IMO
I would say the Coalition aren’t acting like a party within striking distance of a win. So either their internal polling is wrong, or…
Who really knows though, it doesn’t and hasn’t ever felt like a change election to me, but most, if not all, of the data points in the direction of a fairly easy Labor win.
Socrates @ #824 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 5:56 pm
Who couldn’t have been moved by the heart warming photos of Scomo with Jen campaigning in Darwin earlier today? Where else would you take the love of you life? Scomo will give Jen a wonderful visit, showing her all the marginal seats.
(The girls are old enough to be OK for a few days back in Kirribilli on their own)
————
That photo of Morrison and his campaigning wife speaks to me of patriarchy, possession, and a disturbing power imbalance, albeit consensual. ‘To have and to hold’ ain’t even the start of it. I can’t imagine it appealing in the slightest to women voters thinking of not voting for Morrison because of his attitude to women.
I wonder if any of the polls in the next few days will try to quantify or factor in the voting preferences of those who have already voted.
Some more numbers from PVO’s NSW Liberal leaks.. Resolve has Liberal primary in NSW at 39. If only it wasn’t that unpopular Morrison driving people to the minors – will they preference the bulldozer back? Maybe, maybe not.
Not enough room in the package for the following: the PMs net satisfaction ratings in Parramatta (minus 29), Bennelong (minus 14), Reid (minus 15), Warringah (minus 2). In the same order the Liberal primary votes: 36, 39, 39, 37. The seat by seat sample sizes 700-1,000. #auspol
Good grief! 52/48. It’s still not 48/52. As distressing as it is, the only poll that matters is on Saturday. If Australia is prepared to forgive the last three years of appalling government we deserve what we get. We need a federal ICAC and we need it now. Enough said.
The Lib/nats only once in the last 30 years retained government with a primary vote lower than 40%
39.5% was 1998 Howard government lost 14 seats , remained in government due to a big majority from 1996
Yes. Also telling will be the visits of both leaders this week.
That photo of Morrison and his campaigning wife speaks to me of patriarchy, possession, and a disturbing power imbalance, albeit consensual. ‘To have and to hold’ ain’t even the start of it. I can’t imagine it appealing in the slightest to women voters thinking of not voting for Morrison because of his attitude to women.
________
Just an inch away from going the grope!
Resolve has a 13 point collapse in the Labor’s primary in NSW in a little over two weeks, and a 10 point collapse in the LNP’s primary in Queensland over the same period. It’s just nonsense.
Seadog says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:52 pm
This is why I wake in the middle of the night having panic attacks.
Polls can be rosy for months but when it comes to putting pencil to paper
Aussie voters are a fickle mob.
In fact, the Australian electorate is not fickle. It has shown a very consistent attachment to the Lying Reactionaries, no matter how badly they govern.
Assuming this Resolve is something of an outlier, it’s also a damned good thing to happen right now. Gives pause to those at pre-polls and those at the main event on Saturday thinking it’s safe to assume Labor is home and hosed and they can pencil in a cheeky vote for their local LNP MP who they may half-like while despising Morrison.
“The final Resolve Strategic poll of the campaign has Labor’s primary vote even lower than 2019″…
Ha, ha, ha… quite ridiculous… I can’t wait for the election result!
2019: The ALP vote overestimated….
2022: The ALP vote underestimated?
The drop in NSW for Labor seems very strange. This polling company isn’t complaint with the Australian standards so will be interesting to see if it’s true come Saturday.
Essential poll out tomorrow; if that’s similar to this one, than it’s game on for miracle 2.0
Using the voice of Lleyton Hewitt in the middle of a tight match ………C’monnnn
Will give a lot of people hope where none previously existed
A Labor vote of 31% is ridiculous.
A Coalition vote of 34% is disastrous for them. Given they need to win Labor seats to offset losses to Independents, 34% won’t do it.
Probably helps to show they aren’t herding but resolve is just too jumpy to take seriously imo. Like the state breakdowns are ridiculous with how much they bounce around without much rhyme or reason. Entirely plausible there’s a tightening but I find it highly doubtful labor’s PV has gone backwards from 2019
So the future of the Liberal Party being under threat tells you what?
Their candidates are either pre selected or chosen by the Pentecostal
Amazing stuff
And some are talking up this rabble being returned to government
They should tear themselves apart in opposition not in government
No vase!
Wildish fluctuations on SportsBet, currently:
ALP $1.33
LNP $3.50
Should have taken the $4.20 LNP this morning 🙂
I’ve not seen the Albo press ‘walkout’ at all on any news platform.
And what’s the first story on the ABC news? Sheesh!!
“The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor”…
This is exactly like in 2019: Within the margin of error!!
So, 3 years of Scomo PM and Federal Coalition government disasters have made No Difference Whatsoever?….. Ha, ha, ha… Pollsters were ridiculed in 2019… and some will be ridiculed in 2022 too, but for the opposite reason!
Even 2016 federal election despite a big majority win in 2013 , and a combined primary vote of 42.5% , the lib/nats lost 15 seats and barely hold onto majority
That why if Labor primary vote increases , it will be impossible for the lib/nats to be re-elected with a combined primary vote of under 40%
If Labor is defeated again, the party as it stands is cactus.
There would have to be a complete overhaul and total restructure with a totally new reach.
Mick @ #34 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:01 pm
But there is a calming, women friendly pot plant behind him. Women love gardening, doncha know?!
I’m now revising my prediction to a Coalition MAJORITY government.
I stuhl feel Labor should win from here.
Clearly Australians want better from our politics and are rejecting both Albo and ScoMo. 35% dont want either.
Electoral reform is highly likely from here. The whole rotten edifice will come down.
As Bob Hawke used to say “the Australian people always get it right”
I think the economics is coming home to roost for Labor. Dr Chalmers smart Alec young Labor lines haven’t cut through – god help him if he plans to argue the spending promises will be funded by having zero consultants in the public service.
Albo to win but no mandate. Likely to be under siege from News Corp from Day 1.
So this is the Australian version of Pasokification playing out in real time.
OMG this interview with Grimshaw….
😮
Seadog @ #14 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:52 pm
As I said this morning, it’s the creeping miracle.
Numbers and polls are all very well.
But knowing what’s in the hearts and minds of the average dumbarse voter is where the truth lies.
Scotty wins again.
I’ve said it all along.
Make the adjustment now.
Saturday night 10:30pm is too late.
How Labor comes back from this defeat is anyone’s guess.
“If Labor is defeated again, the party as it stands is cactus.
There would have to be a complete overhaul and total restructure with a totally new reach.”
No, just need a fair and balanced media.
Confessions ,
I find it hard to watch 730. I WILL NOT watch ACA.
Richo’s take in the Oz:
Albo’s win will inspire battlers
Anthony Albanese is relentless in pursuit of his rightful victory. Even if Scott Morrison offered every voter a gold bar he would still fail.
1 HOUR AGO By GRAHAM RICHARDSON
Very sombre mood in the Liberal camp down at the Pre Poll in Woy Woy tonight.
Pat Farmer down there campaigning for Fat Palmer again.
I’m not so sure about this Resolve poll. It doesn’t appear to be translating to the mood of the Liberals as I see it.
Lars Von Trier @ #36 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:06 pm
‘“the Australian people always get it right”’
Not just Hawke, it’s a common saying amongst the political class.
Just tell yourself this over and over again on Sunday morning and see if it makes any difference.
“That photo of Morrison and his campaigning wife speaks to me of patriarchy, possession, and a disturbing power imbalance, albeit consensual. ‘To have and to hold’ ain’t even the start of it. I can’t imagine it appealing in the slightest to women voters thinking of not voting for Morrison because of his attitude to women.”
Much as they might wish for otherwise, there are fewer Anne Summerses and Germaine Greers in the electorate than there are women akin to Florence Bjelke-Petersen and her ilk.