Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 31, Greens 14

The final Resolve Strategic poll of the campaign has Labor’s primary vote even lower than 2019, but still has them ahead on two-party preferred.

The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.

The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.

With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.

UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.

UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 31, Greens 14”

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  2. Should Labor loose Rex – I think everybody born before 1980 in the Labor caucus will have to leave Parliament. I think Clare O’Neil would be well placed for the Whitlam style re-build underpinned by a platform of electoral reform.

  3. south:

    Grimshaw rolled her eyes and looked completely exasperated at SfM’s blathering about a bulldozer.

    It’s classic!

  5. C@t:

    He is getting the grilling that Leigh Sales would never give him. She isn’t letting him get away with not answering her questions.

  6. 31 PV seems very low and doesn’t ring true to me, but who knows. It is one poll. Let’s see what the remaining polls show.

  7. SA Voter @ #29 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:58 pm

    The drop in NSW for Labor seems very strange. This polling company isn’t complaint with the Australian standards so will be interesting to see if it’s true come Saturday.

    Essential poll out tomorrow; if that’s similar to this one, than it’s game on for miracle 2.0

    It’s been game on for miracle 2.0 since the day after the 2019 election.

  9. The Guardian:
    “‘Hello it’s John Howard calling’: former PM says Liberal party asked him to ‘campaign extensively’”

    This doesn’t look the decision of a political party that’s on the verge of experiencing a second “miracle”… It looks more like a desperate move of a party that’s on the verge of being historically trashed…

    The Libs must know something that Resolve Strategic doesn’t….

  11. Wonder what channel 9 would do if their other polling company they use IPSOS contradicts resolve and show Labor the same or increase their primary and 2pp

  13. I suppose 3 years ago if we wete told the polls showed Labor at 52/48 in election week, we would have been overjoyed.

    And that’s 52 with a ridiculous 31% primary vote.

    So if it ‘s really 34%, what would that make it – 53/47 or 54/46?

  14. These swings could just be the effects of switching from a purely online poll to online mixed with phone calls rather than any real change in the state of play. As usual, it’s difficult to know what to make of Resolve.

  15. Confessions @ #54 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:10 pm

    C@t:

    He is getting the grilling that Leigh Sales would never give him. She isn’t letting him get away with not answering her questions.

    Thanks, ‘fess. Morrison probably thought it would be a softball interview but as I’ve said before, Tracy Grimshaw is no pushover journo. She’s been around the block more times than most people have had hot dinners and she’s made ACA her own personal fiefdom and doesn’t take crap from anyone she interviews.

  16. Grimshaw making a point many journos have missed: The downsizing boomers have to buy a property elsewhere. So how does that help housing supply? It doesn’t.

    Of course Morrison, after looking temporarily befuddled, obfuscates his way back to his talking points.

  17. Morrison has ended up stumped a couple of times before the bulldozer kicks in and off he goes blathering again.

    Grimshaw is rolling eyes, deep sighing and looking disbelieving at him on the TV screen as he rolls on and on.

  18. Hands up if you think the GRNs are getting 14% nationally.

    Now move the difference to the ALP column and youve got a better picture.

  19. Just a note from a (very) long term lurker here in the seat held by the much admired Ged Kearney in Melbourne. Thanks to all the – admittedly sometimes fractitious – contributors, and especially for BK’s work. I don’t mind whether we have a Labor majority or minority government as long as the country puts an end to this highly corrosive period of coalition rule. Good luck to all the campaigners trying to achieve that important goal.

  20. Looks like whoever came up with that “Hole in your budget” ad will be getting a pretty sweet Christmas bonus this year.

  21. yabba says:

    Bach was apolitical. The ‘Art of the Fugue’ is an intellectual and musical triumph. Way, way beyond your ability to even begin to comprehend, as you demonstrate so clearly, day after day.
    ___________________________
    that’s debatable:

    Both Bach’s music and his Calov notations put powerful stress upon: (1) contempt for human reason, along with the exalting of biblical revelation as the proper arbiter of truth; (2) disparagement of notions of human autonomy and achievement, along with the exalting of dependence on God, including for one’s position in the social hierarchy; (3) contempt — explicit or implicit — for Judaism, Catholicism and Islam, along with the exalting of orthodox Lutheranism; (4) disdain for foreigners, along with the exalting of German faithfulness and goodness; and (5) the emphatic exalting of monarchical power, as authorized not by the people but by God. Nowhere in Bach’s music or Calov notations are these sentiments contradicted.

    In short, Bach, in his unswerving religious conservatism, was living and working very much at odds with the progressivist currents of his day, and ours.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/30/arts/music/bach-religion-music.html

  25. From the previous thread…

    Xenu @ #927 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 6:40 pm

    Random thought but I wonder if a lot of ALP voters voted early to get it over with and maybe that’s why they aren’t answering polls as much anymore. A lot of early voting tends to not be a great sign for the incumbent

    I had the same thought, re early voters no longer being polled. With the majority of votes being cast before the final day, it makes polling less relevant towards the end

  26. Befuddled: Yes most notably after Grimshaw suggests he ‘overegged’ his claim he saved Australia (after she reeled off a devastating list of Morrison’s failures during bushfires/pandemic etc).

  27. “Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:09 pm
    Should Labor loose Rex – I think everybody born before 1980 in the Labor caucus will have to leave Parliament.”…

    Whereas Liberal seniors have already announced that they will be leaving at this election, whereas many others will be sent packing by the voters after a historical Labor win, and those who will be left…. well, whatever they do it’s rather irrelevant.

    1 (ALP)+ 1 (Teal) = 0 (Liberal party)….

    The new arithmetic of the Liberal party extinction….

  28. Albo invited but has declined.

    That would seem to infer how both parties feel about the state of play: SfM having to do all these media engagements, whereas Albo doesn’t feel the need to?

  32. ShaneB – sure , but you cant expect to run the country, credibly, with a 31% primary, nor for that matter with a 34% primary.

    We are on the cusp of a Whitlam moment in Australian politics. A reset is coming – its actually very very exciting.

  35. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:18 pm
    Albo invited but has declined.

    That would seem to infer how both parties feel about the state of play: SfM having to do all these media engagements, whereas Albo doesn’t feel the need to?
    —————————————————————————

    Good point , It is good to see Albanese not appeasing the media

  37. Some interesting remarks made today by Julie Bishop, former deputy leader of the Liberal Party and foreign minister, reported by the Australian Financial Review’s Mark Ludlow.

    Bishop, who made a disastrous and failed bid for the leadership on behalf of the moderates against Scott Morrison in 2019, said that Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese had failed to inspire voters or provide any “big picture vision”.

    She warned that without the moderates, the entire future of the Liberal Party was at stake.

    “There would have to be a lot of soul-searching within the Liberal and National parties if the teal independents get up one, two, however many seats,” Bishop told the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association conference in Brisbane on Tuesday.

    “There would have to be a lot of soul-searching as to why progressive and moderate Liberals, who have been such a significant part of the success of the Coalition over decades, as to why seats like Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong, Bennelong, Wentworth, which have always been in their column, [have been lost].

    “That would eat the heart out of the party in terms of support, volunteers, fundraising.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/election-2022-live-updates-scott-morrison-insists-coalition-s-super-home-buyer-scheme-is-well-calibrated-anthony-albanese-wants-deeper-ties-with-south-east-asia-20220516-p5alss.html

  39. Yeah, if the Essential poll shows a similar 2 point narrowing it will be game on. However, the ALP would still be in a winning position. If you are pessimistic you would still say Labor wins 2 in NSW, 1 in SA and 1 in WA (ALP doesn’t get Swan). That would mean nothing in Tas, Vic or Qld, which seems fairly unlikely. The Teals win 1 or 2. And this leads to a minority ALP Government. But that is pretty pessimistic for sure.

  41. I think Albo should do as much media as possible. He can handle it.

    Anyway, on early voting, I expect the prepolls will break heavily for labor. As most prepoll folk I know are doing it to avoid covid. And you know who fucked that up.

    I’m voting on the day because that’s really what you’re meant to do, I only need to last as long as seeing SfM conceed. Then if covid takes me, meh!

  42. Part of me questions why resolve changed their methodology – was the poll not getting the results they wanted so they had to change and is 52/48 the best lnp position they could get?

  45. In the six Resolve polls conducted in 2022, they’ve had the ALP primary on 40, 31, 36, 32, 35, and now 31.

    In the same six polls they had the LNP primary on 29, 31, 34, 35, 30, 34, and 34.

    The Greens – 11, 11, 11, 12, 16, 15.

    Good luck making any sense of that.

  46. That photo of Morrison and his campaigning wife speaks to me of patriarchy, possession, and a disturbing power imbalance, albeit consensual. ‘To have and to hold’ ain’t even the start of it. I can’t imagine it appealing in the slightest to women voters thinking of not voting for Morrison because of his attitude to women.

    For the full effect swap it around with Mrs in behind gently protecting her loving Mr.

  47. Historyintime ,
    only 2 in NSW seems insane just with all those fires, floods, pandemic lock downs and corruption.

  48. By today we will have 2.5m postals and approaching 4m pre-polls – 6.5m of the 17.6m registered to vote, or 37% have voted already.

    Given around 8% won’t bother, and ~5% informals- add 13% and we have 50% or thereabouts voters left.

    In the US, the better pollsters weight the responses after prepolling starts – those who have voted already and say who they voted for get a 1.0, those who say they intend to vote a particular way get a 0.8, those who don’t know/can’t say and are pushed to say (like Resolve does) get 0.5 weighting.

  50. Wow, the pessimists are out tonight!! Really need to see Newspoll but the NSW internal polling and Resolve polling can’t be both right. Considering the internal polling figures are bouncing around within the margin for error, willing to treat these as more reliable and ignore Resolve. Vic figures are just wrong, ScoMo is despised by all down here, even rusted on Libs.

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