The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.
The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.
With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.
UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.
UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.
Whoever wins this election is in for a tough time economically and a HELL of a time for Labor getting things through the Senate with a LIB/HANSON majority.
Economically petrol prices are going up and up and will help to kill the economy within 18 months.
Dare I say it ? – It’s going to be beautiful in its ugliness?
Kind of remarkable to see another poll where the Lib primary doesn’t budge… pretty much the only thing consistent over the last few weeks. If Labor goes down, it’s not going to the Libs.
FTR – I do think this is an outlier, as most of the Resolve polls have been … but only one way to test this methodology, I suppose.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
More serious money on the Coalition to win:
Labor out to $1.40; Coalition into $3.45
justif01 says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:25 pm
With a Coalition PV of 34 replicated on Saturday it would be a hung parliament or a narrow Labor victory?
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Unless Labor primary vote decreases , it will be a Labor majority
“ Anyway, on early voting, I expect the prepolls will break heavily for labor. As most prepoll folk I know are doing it to avoid covid. And you know who fucked that up.”
Brave. I suspect they will lean more towards the Coalition, as they have for every election before now due to demographic reasons.
When referencing leaked internal polling, remember it’s done for a reason.
mark 22 @ #94 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:27 pm
The consolation for Scotty’s miracle 2.0 is that the place might turn to shit.
@Holden – more like more people reacting to a poll… something we’ve seen each time the Libs aren’t in a disastrous position.
Oh @mundo … you really don’t have the stomach for this do you? Find a doona and just plan your birthday party, someone will alert you to the result.
The reason I voted early is both to avoid covid and to reduce the chance of not being able to vote in person or at all if I caught it just before election day. Just get it over and done with while you’re covid-free is my theory .
Scott @ #98 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:28 pm
I’ve already predicted a hung parliament.
These threads are more numerous than changing undergarments:
I think there are two reasons (perhaps more) accounting for Morgan & Resolve. First, electors customarily tune in a bit more in the last week of a campaign. Second, Morrison’s announcement at the eleventh hour of drawing down super is most likely a vote winner, despite most of the informed rightly claiming it’s a dud – tell that to a 30-year-old couple attempting to buy a home. I further think that Labor’s decision to dismiss it outright was a big mistake, given it’s matched most of the Cons’ commitments. Essential, Newspoll may tell a different tale but they won’t be that dissimilar. Labor by ten?
This poll may galvanise some indecisive voters to vote for the ALP so Morrison is kicked out. There is no room for wishy-washy-ness or leaving it up to others.
Al Palsays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:46 pm
If the unemployment rate has a three in front of it on Thursday, Morrison will believe his miracle could happen again. It will dominate his message over the following two days – up to 6pm Saturday.
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Some important ABS numbers over the next two days, tomorrow is wage growth, expected to be about 2.7 %, Labor are going to have to make the most of it compared to cost of living.
Thursday is employment figures, and the unemployment rate will definitely start with a 3 (3.8% ?) and as Al Pal says that is all we will hear about until polls close.
sprocket_ @ #98 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:27 pm
If that is not done in Australia, then perhaps poll aggregators could apply the ‘correction’?
Lars Von Trier @ #75 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:20 pm
Bullshit Lars. Get a grip.
I remember the Whitlam moment.
Pre polls nearly always mimic the final result.
So, we’ve finally reached the point where the execs have decided the data scientists are a bunch of numpties, the data and models have been discarded and we’ve moved on to fraudulent results based on the vibe.
Cool. Cool cool cool.
Kos Samaras of Redbridge
Resolve Poll. 51/49 to Labor. Now within the MOE. My intel tells me more will follow in a similar pattern.
No hubris or complacency being allowed. Lots of lessons learnt from 2019.
BSA Bob @ #72 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:19 pm
Repetition.
It works.
Mundo is like Hanrahan, we’ll all be rooned!!!!!
Voice endeavour @ #118 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:35 pm
They go with gut feel instead of the actual data and then massage the data to get the results they want.
The fact the methodology was changed half way through is very suspect.
Snap there Puffy..
Newsltd hacks were very calm around this time in 2019 , their attitude is completely different this year , more out of control like they know a change of federal government is happening this Saturday
Who even answers the phone to a pollster any more?
Lars Von Trier @ #42 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:06 pm
She missed such a great chance when Morrison said he had to behave the way he did because it was an emergency, lives were at stake etc. Next question should have been “Than why did you say it wasn’t a race?” But I think anyone watching would have seen the derisive smile and the side eye looks of Grimshaw. He was, except for the rusted-ons, a laughing stock.
Nah, Mundo this is good news! Rejoice! Change is a comin! I tells ya!
If Smoko does get over the line then theres no hope for this country. What type of people have we become? Endorse corruption, endorse mediocrity, endorse low wages with no pay rises, endorse poor aged care .Jesus!!! Just an awful attitude to society.
One of my kids sung that bucket ad to me this evening :-/
Not reading a great lot into the Resolve poll. It really does not fully ad up.
Still nervous, though, but not because of that poll.
itsthevibe @ #63 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:14 pm
It’s a political killer no doubt.
The first time I saw it I thought…..holy shit, sitting ducks.
The punters are sitting ducks.
Morrison in Darwin is unnerving. Two Labor seats are at risk up there.
Lars pants wetting at the thought of a miracle victory..
Anybody still feel Jason Clare is a future leader after seeing how the respective housing policies have played out?
steve davis @ #121 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:39 pm
It’s an ugly reality we have to face no question.
As I’ve said all along, make the adjustment now – or as early as possible – the re’s no way back.
nath @ #70 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:14 pm
Congratulations on quick googling and adequate Ctrl C Ctrl V dexterity. Bach was a highly religious, journeyman musician. A humble man of his time. He took no part in any political activity, as your hastily found quote confirms. He worked exclusively in and around german minor nobility, playing the organ in their Lutheran churches and composing church music, and other music as he found time. His life is certainly worth study, and his music is a never-ending wonder. You will never have the nous to investigate either.
“ Pre polls nearly always mimic the final result.”
This just isn’t true.
steve davis @ #128 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:39 pm
Since 2019 I have questioned the average voter – if it happens then obviously people are happy with the status quo.
steve davis says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:39 pm
If Smoko does get over the line then theres no hope for this country. What type of people have we become? Endorse corruption, endorse mediocrity, endorse low wages with no pay rises, endorse poor aged care .Jesus!!! Just an awful attitude to society.
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Make matters worst a Taylormade YouTube music video comes out with guest singers like Lars Von Trier , Nath, Mundo ,Rex douglas
Firefox, thanks for sharing each and every fluffy Greens press release, solid contribution to PB….
Sprocket – I have been saying for weeks now that I thought Labor would win. Labor has been in front since July last year – not my fault if Labor finds ways to screw it up.
Poll Bogan @ #129 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:09 pm
Ad jingles can be very effective. Especially if they get stuck in your head.
ONE wonky poll and @mundo runs for the razor… I swear to God.
I don’t buy the Resolve poll, but I still don’t LIKE seeing those figures. Mostly because of the reaction it engenders in people who should know better.
I’m very live to the chance the Government could be returned, haven’t felt anything suggesting that for a very long time. If it happens, it happens. I feel quite fatalistic – basically the way I felt just before the 2020 Presidential.
Sure Lars, but we all know you have your fingers crossed whenever you bleat your unconvincing rhetoric.
yabba says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:09 pm
……..The ‘Art of the Fugue’ is an intellectual and musical triumph.
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I love best the Contrapunctus number 9 which I even learned to play. It was Glenn Gould’s organ recording that motivated me.
yabba says:
You will never have the nous to investigate either.
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Kind of ironic your musical idol was a religious conservative. 🙂
He probably had more in common with GG.
Bludging @ #26 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 4:56 pm
Fickle wasn’t the first description that came to mind but decided to avoid expletives so as not to make the place look untidy.
Lars Von Trier @ #126 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:40 pm
No. He’s good value but we have to accept that the only way Labor gets back into government is with a messianic figure leading them. Forget all this common man crap. Any fuckwit is acceptable as a Liberal leader.
Labor is held to a higher standard/expectation.
That’s the way it is.
The coalition is still in the first half of a term in government roughly equivalent to Menzies/Holt/Gorton/Macmahon.
Try and be patient, 14 years to go. We haven’t even got to Prime minister Frydenburg yet.
Tracy Grimshaw really did assassinate Morrison with this question.
https://twitter.com/AshleyLeahy/status/1526486536979480576?s=20&t=3qNeJ8266_5mGQnGGP_gWA
Sticking by 79 for ALP.
Mexicanbeemer @ #139 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:47 pm
Oh right, so Labor’s vote collapese to 21 but that doesn’t matter because Liberals in the mid 30s.
JFCGMS