The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.
The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.
With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.
UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.
UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.
Holdenhillbilly at 1:08 pm
‘White’ immigrants are OK. It’s the ‘brown’ ones that get the Poorlenes’ inner bigots going.
I agree with the comments made here about Pilbersek’s manner. I don’t get people who saw her as a potential leader – always seemed more like the fact that she’s the Federal ALPs highest profile woman in the House (Penny, who is also unsuited by personality to being the leader because of her temper, is the highest profile if the Senate were included). Not everyone is suited to the relentlessly daily grind of political leadership. I wouldn’t be either because I would call media people fuckwits before the first week was out.
I have been a bit disappointed at the lack of Clare O’Neill in this campaign as the ALP has definitely lacked female voices and especially younger female voices in a campaign targeting Morrison over his handling of women. It’s a very bloke heavy campaign for Labor.
So it’s a nervous wait for Ipsos tonight
Gorilla says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:47 am
I doubt anyone remembers me – I used to post here until the last election, but that took me a long time to get over! I didn’t even look at PB again until a couple of weeks ago, and have been lurking ever since.
Beguiledagain and JenAuthor, I grew up in Concord and Cabarita, and my folks are still in the area – in fact beguiledagain, we were probably in Concord at the same time (the 1970s). I still know plenty of people in that area, and play for a sporting club there. It still seems to be a mixture of silvertail and working class, but it still seems a fairly progressive area from what I see, even amongst those who are doing pretty well.
I don’t think Mortlake had a bad reputation as such, other than it being pretty industrial with a lot of chemicals that had to be remediated. In fact the whole area for a long time seemed to have virtually no reputation at all – one of those forgotten pockets of Sydney.
————————————————————————–
I don’t think we were contemporaries. Concord Public, then Eastwood Opportunity and Homebush Boys’, Leaving Certificate in 1954. I left in the late 1950’s to go overseas for fame and misfortune.
I did return in mid-1970 as a journo accompanying Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau when he unveiled a monument to the Canadian exiles at Cabarita where I learned to swim. My Mum lived on in the family home just off Majors Bay Road until the late 1980’s.
But Concord, as the suburb of parks, was a wonderful place to grow up.
What happens to the betting odds if IPSOS also comes in at 51/49?
This first page looks uneasy for Albanese, however the Bludger Track state by state looks all go for Albo!
Jan says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 1:12 pm
Freya Stark @ #991 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:34 pm
Labor’s support likely to collapse down to its lowest ever primary vote. Cannot win government on 30% of the vote.
Coalition vote down too, but going to PHON and UAP…..
FWIW, Newspoll had Greens primary above UAP and PHON combined. You would expect far more preference flows from Greens to ALP than UAP+PHON to Coalition. So unless there are “others” that change that dynamic, the Coalition need a higher primary than ALP in order to win the 2PP.
________________________________
Fair point.
Basically 3 things left in this campaign:
1> Albo in Fowler tonight (lots of footage of Albo with KK for the outer city and regional voters to be broadcast tomorrow)
2> Dr Chalmers costings tomorrow ( Labor spending more than Liberals and looking sneaky leaving it to the last minute – not owning it)
3> Friday’s Newspoll (which as a minimum would need the Libs to be on a higher primary for ScoMo to have any chance)
I think ScoMo will get more undecideds breaking to him at the last minute but not enough. Albo’s to loose from here.
Essential Report;
That is a most interesting poll question and result IMHO.
Have to laugh at the troll tribe here who now, with a two second look on TV, can tell from looking at a face in an audience the mood of that person…..
No wonder most here think this group is a hoot…
On top of this, much is made about the the Labor PV being low, while the Liberal one is probably even lower….even with the help of the Nationals…..
And to top it off, the LNP is under serious threat of from its own…the Teals……..I don’t think Palmer will save the Liberals this time and even less from ON.
Fancy having to rely on right-wing looney parties to save one’s political skin…..Still, with conservatives nobody is ever surprised by the hypocrisy.
PvO praises Albo’s NPC speech:
https://twitter.com/vanonselenp/status/1526759255894020096?s=21&t=m4kwlgWSnSeOkRyvZbMNnA
Firefox says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 12:53 pm
Scott Morrison’s only campaign strategy was to have a lonnnnnnnng election campaign, bore everyone witless & wring us dry emotionally.. he has succeeded.
He will be reward with size 46 right up the clacker
hazza4257 @ #986 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 1:03 pm
Rotten Analogy Warning: I have two pieces of fruit. I bite into one. It’s awful. Do I bite again or try the other one?
“Firefoxsays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 12:45 pm
“Tanya looks depressed at the NPC. Oh no”
***
So did Katy Gallagher in a brief shot they took of her listening to Albanese. ”
Ha, ha, ha… drawing conclusions from a brief shot of somebody’s expression (presumably after lunch)?…. Oh dear: “clutching”, “straws”, “desperation”, “delusion”…. Order the four words in the why that better reflects your situation.
Hah!
Just been door knocked by none other than … checks notes … the candidate for Chisholm one Gladys Liu!
Unfortunately I live in the seat of Hotham.
“Sorry Gladys but you need to be on the other side of the road… this is the seat of Hotham. You are in the wrong electorate and besides I would never vote for you regardless if you were. Would you like to come in for a coffee.”
IDIOT!
I have had a final report back from Goldstein prepolling to the effect that –
– Consistently across all the days people are taking Zoe Daniel how to votes the most, my correspondent continues to think Wilson is gone for all money.
– My correspondent believes the Palmer vote will exceed polling and the number of Palmer voters showing up has been rising as prepolling continues. They have a hypothesis that UAP antivax voters don’t answer polling and maybe have a different profile to the “unengaged” Morrison voters supposedly missed last time. These people are engaged, very engaged, they’re just nuts.
– My correspondent has detected no move to the Libs across prepolling. If there is such a move it is only on preferences from increased Palmer votes.
One seat, anecdotal evidence, take it for what tiny amount it is worth.
ltep @ #1004 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:45 pm
51-49 on their headline 2PP? That would be a 6pt drop and I dont want to be on here if that happens.
Andrew Clennell is a straight shooter. A respectable journalist.
south @ #942 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:06 pm
Yep..
https://t.co/nXy1LlU7pg
That DT question about referring an MP for alleged misconduct…
I always said, if you want to know where the dirt may come, await the preemptive questions from the gutter press…
Wondering if that question at NPC from Daily Tele was a set up…..
Looks like Labor already know the results of the Ipsos poll and it’s not good for them. That’s why they have glum faces.
Penny Wong at 54 and staring down twelve years of opposition would be seriously thinking about a switch in careers.
“Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 1:17 pm
…. Albo’s to loose from here.”
Ha, ha, ha…. That’s all you need to write as a Liberal party employee. All the preliminary crap is completely unnecessary … and laughable.
So Lars, if the Coalition loses, will you get one of those Liberal party “wage rises”?…. Ha, ha, ha….
People on camera look sad/depressed if they are not grinning like a maniac. It’s why you see people with media training smiling in such a peculiar way on camera.
Last night in here after Resolve was released was bad enough, imagine the reaction if IPSOS and Newspoll predict a similar close result , some very unhinged people on this blog and a few obvious troublemakers.
“Ha, ha, ha… drawing conclusions from a brief shot of somebody’s expression”
***
Did you even bother to read the rest of my post?
I would add this to your list. It is a factor and where the disengaged are often at the mercy of the Murdoch Press and some lazy journos on 9/7. It is why I dont get leaving costings to a last minute attack by Morrison and his media cheer squad where there is little time to defend it.
I’m 100% Labor.. I wish Albo had answers grounded in policy.. sadly missing from this address.. all what if’s… My reading from the press is they are tolerant of the non answers because they want to see the end of Morrison. Albo will be a good PM because he wont get in the way.
Freya Stark @ #1021 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 1:24 pm
Pretty sure it’s not depression, but exhaustion.
And I’m not surprised – they’ve been so active over the last 5.5 weeks, and they’ve got just 3 and a bit days to go. I’m kind of surprised that they’re not so overwhelmed that they take an entire day off to just sleep.
Sceptic at 1.19
I’m pleased to note your use of metric shoe sizing!
Gee a lot of people here are still bullish on a positive outcome for the ALP.
However the last three polls have the ALP’s PV at 38% then 34% now 31%. That is a bad trend, very bad.
I am starting to think the unthinkable that we see Morrison and his clown show remain in government for another three years with no movement on climate change or a national integrity commission.
With the uneven media landscape and greens voters helping keep the Liberals in power maybe eternal opposition is Labor’s lot at national level.
Very nervous about Saturday night.
Simmo888: Andrew Clennell is one of the Murdoch people I’d have any time for, I can remember him interrogating Gladys during the covid lockdown in NSW, the bloke is no mug
“Andrew Clennell is a straight shooter. A respectable journalist.”
He has everyone’s back as it assists him in locating where to put the knife in.
His prediction record is no better than what can be obtained from some off the street random.
Trafford10 @ #1031 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 1:28 pm
31 is an outsider – every other poll has 34-38….
Meanwhile in radio land the news led with 2.7% wage growth?
If Ipsos comes out badly, I’ll be pulling myself up by my bootstraps and selling razor blades around here. I’ll be Rich :p
10/10 for Albanese at the NPC today. Both the speech and question responses.
If Ipsos is 51-49 to Labor, Labor is in front enough to win ……..
Itep…Why is the impact on the betting odds important in this matter?
If Ipsos comes out this way, other then Newspoll, it means the reputable polls are all likely to have Labor in the lead….
The worry for the Libs is they are bleeding badly to the splinter right wing groups.
Anybody of any substance calling it for a Morrison win yet?
New thread.
On the up side, it is the last night you will see the hole in the bucket ad on commercial TV
Thanks Arky for the field report from Goldstein. Like everybody I’m feeling a little rattled today. It’s some meagre consolation that even if the unthinkable happens – my head tells me still that it’s unlikely – and the LNP gets up, that it’s most likely it will be a minority government dependent on Teals like Daniel.
That gives some prospect of getting an acceptable FICAC and something resembling a climate policy. Very much second best but it would be aeons better than the totally unthinkable scenario of a LNP majority.
Given IPSOS was ridiculous the other way – some kind of correction to the mean has to be expected.
Trafford10 at 1.28
“…last three polls have the ALP’s PV at 38% then 34% now 31%. That is a bad trend, very bad.”
You might want to try comparing apples with, you know, apples. Each of those numbers comes from a different pollster. So, no trend line at all, unless you compare the numbers from the same pollster over several polls, then weight them for, frankly credibility.
steve davis @ #918 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:16 pm
He will implement every single piece of legislation the Liberal party have promised in their campaign ads.
So, yes, he will sit on his arse for 3 years, assiduously “not being Labor”.
Sceptic @ #1027 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 1:27 pm
‘My reading from the press is they are tolerant of the non answers because they want to see the end of Morrison’
You’ve just arrived have you?
Beguiled Again
Talking to nurses who were there, no one seems to have noticed that there were 50 armed detectives pretending to be promenading in Hospital Rd at the time. The Telegraph even claimed that there were snipers in the trees overlooking the hospital shop. There are photos of the deployment and Ryan in cuffs in the recently published history of the hospital.
The poor student nurse who was used as a decoy to attract Ryan and Walker was given a reward of $10,000 but suffered severe guilt when Ryan was hanged. There were rumours that there was an underworld contract out on here and senior nurses slept outside her door in the nurses’ home for several months
I see Birmo is being wheeled out on the wages data. Morrison squibbed it by having his presser before the announcement and Josh is probably too busy handing out HTVs at a Kooyong pre poll with the living corpse that is John Howard.
Poor old Alfred E Birmo. Always wheeled out to serve up the shit sandwiches for this govt.
According to the Oz – KK is living in a one bedder flat rental in Liverpool ($400 pw) after relocating from her 5 bdr home in Scotland Island and changed her electoral enrolment to same last week.
Lars, your obsession with Fowler and KK is creepy and disturbing.
somethinglikethat @ #582 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:14 pm
There, fixed it for you. 😀