The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.
The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.
With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.
UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.
UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.
Latest friendlyjordies.
https://youtu.be/SJZrw7PhWds
“Pity about the double negative.”
*twitching eye*
Tom @ #466 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:29 pm
Exactly what I was thinking. And giving the trolls something to gloat about.
Canberrans vote for shared power, say ACT Greens
The ACT Greens have today labelled claims by members of the Federal Labor Party’s leadership that under no circumstances would they form another minority government with the Greens and Independents as unrealistic and anti-democratic.
“Huge numbers of Canberrans are telling us that they’re deliberately voting for Greens and Independents because they’re sick of the major parties and want to see a power sharing parliament,” Tim Hollo, Greens candidate for Canberra, said today.
“So Mr Albanese’s ‘my way or now way’ approach is profoundly anti-democratic and kind of offensive to people voting for shared power.
“Canberrans have 13 years of experience to show how well government works when Labor and the Greens work together. We’ve built the most progressive legislative agenda in Australia, and off the back of that, our vote has continued to climb, while ACT Labor is now the longest serving local government in Australia.”
Dr Tjanara Goreng Goreng, Greens candidate for the Senate, said: “Canberrans also know that the Gillard Greens independent government was the most effective in 50 years, and after a decade of inaction, we need that type of collaborative legislative agenda that comes from having multiple views in the room.
“Canberrans do not support Labor’s drift to the right, and know that a strong Greens crossbench is the best way to help Labor become the progessive party they once were.
https://canberraweekly.com.au/canberrans-vote-for-shared-power-say-act-greens/
ajm. You said it better. 🙂
Anthony Albanese is en fuego kicking off his NPC address, including 2.7% fall in real wages. Laura Tingle introduced Albo with salient observation that Morrison is first PM not to show up at NPC in last 50 years! Beauty, eh?
phoenixRED says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 12:16 pm
Those COVID numbers particularly in Victoria are dire. On Virginia Trioli’s ABC Melbourne’s program this morning quite a few people called in to say their children’s schools were either closed for one or two days or running mixed classes due to absences caused by COVID / flu cases.
Don’t be surprised if after the election there is a BIG push by the State Government to reintroduce / mandate masks in most if not all indoor settings for the next few months to try and contain the spread.
I find it laughable (not that there is much to laugh about atm) that Neil ‘Grumpy’ Mitchell on fascist radio station 3AW is calling for the reintroduction of restrictions. This is a troglodyte that ranted and raved about the lockdowns in Victoria 12 months ago. A truly disgusting and unpleasant individual.
@WeWantPaul @LeftieBrawler
Hung parliaments are actually very rare. The range of 2pp amenable to a hung parliament is tiny, and I don’t think there will be that many more independents this time.
Exactly – the 51-49 polls magically appear. Except that this defeat for Labor will be all the more demoralising and devastating. It will prove that no matter how incompetent and corrupt and reactionary a Tory government is in Oz, the Murdoch-Rag mainstream media will always be able to get them over the line. Moreover, they were further ahead for almost the entire campaign compared to last time.
Honestly I can’t see why anyone would want to be a Labor political hack these days – the highest office they could ever aspire to would be Opposition Leader.
Albanese going for Morrison’s jugular at the NPC.
“Tanya looks depressed at the NPC. Oh no”
***
So did Katy Gallagher in a brief shot they took of her listening to Albanese. Even if they are worried they should have their poker faces on, no? But to be fair, it is a bit hard to judge someone’s mood and thoughts based on a couple of seconds of TV footage. Maybe they were just caught at a bad time. But it has to be said that Penny Wong didn’t look too thrilled in the shot they just took of her, either. Nor KK…
This is the ranking by AE Forecast of top 10 seats to watch, meaning too close to predict. The numbers in parenthesis are the probability of winning, followed by margin at previous election.
#10 Hughes (60% LNP, LNP 9.8%)
#9 Brisbane (58% LNP, LNP 4.9%)
#8 Bennelong (57% LNP, LNP 6.9%)
#7 Curtin (56% LNP, LNP 13.9%)
#6 Hasluck (55% LNP, LNP 5.9%)
#5 Casey (55% LNP, LNP 4.6%)
#4 Braddon (52% ALP, LNP 3.1%)
#3 Banks (51% ALP, LNP 6.3%)
#2 Lindsay (51% LNP, LNP 5.0%)
#1 Goldstein (50% LNP, LNP 7.8%)
Also interesting
#13 Kooyong (61% LNP, LNP 6.4%), Frydenberg
#23 Dickson (70% LNP, LNP 4.6%), Dutton
#24 Griffith (72% ALP, ALP 2.9%), least certain ALP seat
#41 Ryan (87% LNP, LNP 6.0%), my electorate
Thoughts:
* The first 23 least certain seats are held by the LNP. Just coin tossing I’d have no trouble thinking 10 or so them would be lost by the LNP, just under half.
* Of those 23, 9 favour an independent as most likely to win it (if the LNP doesn’t), 14 favour the ALP.
* Just on that horribly rough analysis, in that group alone there are likely 3-4 independents and 6-7 ALP wins.
Keen to see the effect on BludgerTrack of the latest Essential Poll.
LR
“I’ve been exploring AE Forecast. I like it. So that’s what I’ll base my guesses on.
Seat count On The Night
ALP 65
LNP 58
IND 2
GRN 1
KAP 1
CA 1”
If there are 23 too close to call, WB’s usual follow up Too Close to Call posts will be a mighty read
Was there not an essential poll which had ALP up only by one? ALP is up by two in the latest poll.
Resolve, as we know, is poppycock.
A lot of you seem to be discounting the very bad seat polling for the LNP.
Sportsbet: Labor odds of victory improving in Brisbane and Ryan. In North Sydney, Kyla Tink back to 2nd in the betting behind Zimmerman
south @ #942 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:36 pm
Firefox @ #960 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:45 pm
Tanya has said she is always a nervous campaigner. In my experience pollies are usually frowning in those brief shots at the NPC.
[‘Albanese continues his attack on Morrison.
“The prime minister’s most remarkable statement though was that his biggest flaw is that he is “too quick” to solve problems,” he said, to laughter.
“I’ll just leave that there hanging there for a minute,” he quipped.
He reprises the prime minister’s infamous quotes, including “I don’t hold a hose mate,” and “it’s not a race.”
The prime minister made those remarks in relation to the bushfires and the vaccines and has, during this campaign, acknowledged that vaccines were a race and that should not have been said.
But Albanese said this wasn’t enough.
“The only thing Scott Morrison does quickly in a crisis is blame someone else.
“The Liberals won’t change. The Prime Minister can’t change,” he said.’] – SMH
Did Keating write this speech ..?
nathsays:
_________
“You can use 2004, 2001 and get an even greater increase. You are using 2019, a poor election for the Greens for your whole argument that the Greens have stalled. That might work for Cooper because the Greens over performed against Feeney, but their advance in Wills in undeniable.”
I used 2010 to 2019 because my contention is the Greens growth in those seats has stagnated over the last decade. The problem with using previous elections is that it has no bearing
“This election will add another data point. Your contention is that the status quo will prevail. My argument is that further change is very likely.”
Nah, not really. My contention is and was that the Greens growth in those seats has stalled over the last decade. I said it was interesting. I have never said the “status quo will remain”.
You made a statement of certainty “They ALP will lose them eventually.” You have adjusted you position to “very likely”.
Strawmen and moving goal posts.
@MrMysterious
People are just too broken from 2019… punters are as emotional as most of the posters here, and agents of darkness like “them” are just revelling in the concern and fears people have.
Sad really.
south @ #942 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:06 pm
She was my local MP. She is lovely and v competent and nice to look at. But she is low energy and can ramble. And that’s fine.
Bowen in Sturt today sounding upbeat and concise. He got a grab on the midday ABC radio news.
And…. ALP need to link it all together. All this debt and all this money going to who knows where – because middle Australia is going backwards. Our debt, their back pocket.
ICAC, Debt, Inflation, Wages. And dont let the peeps forget that GDP was floundering before Covid.
Resolve too is totally at odds with the polling leaks Peter Van Onselan and Andrew Clennell have been detailing.
I see that Morrison has got his conspiracy theorist dog whistle going – that the 41 Australians dying from Covid every day are in fact instead dying “with” Covid.
Such a relief for their grieving relatives and friends to hear the PM say that!
hazza4257 @ #956 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:49 pm
I think she’s cooked.
Probably should have bowed out six months ago.
“Tanya has said she is always a nervous campaigner.”
***
That is understandable – we are just days away from an election after all. Pretty high stakes. They’re allowed to be nervous, they just shouldn’t be showing it on camera. Easier said than done though of course. Albanese is looking ok as he is speaking but the the rest of the room is a bit of a different story.
Clennel said on Sky this morning he still thinks Labor will win. Doesn’t trust the most recent polling as it’s so far from other polls, and has come too late.
Individual seat betting moves today, for what they’re worth. No real trend towards the LNP from what I can see.
NSW
BANKS: LNP $1.25 (in from $1.40)
DOBELL: ALP $1.15 (in from $1.22)
EDEN-MONARO: ALP $1.10 (was $1.05)
FOWLER: ALP $1.35 (was $1.20)
GILMORE: ALP $1.75 (was $1.80)
VIC
CORANGAMITE: ALP $1.30 (was $1.25)
GOLDSTEIN: LNP $3 (was $2.80)
SA
BOOTHBY: LNP $3.75 (was $5)
GREY: LNP $1.25 (was $1.20)
NT
LINGIARI: ALP $1.40 (was $1.30)
Which journo is going to do the Laurie Oakes massive gotcha question …?
The Revisionist says:
You made a statement of certainty “They ALP will lose them eventually.” You have adjusted you position to “very likely”.
_________
I should clarify that I mean it is very likely there will be change in the next couple of elections, i.e increasing Greens support and eventually they will fall to the Greens.
I guess we will find out. Stay tuned.
Mr Mysterious @ #964 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:18 pm
I would discount seat polling. Other than it shows how many firefronts Morrison has to deal with.
Yes, ignore Resolve.
And Essential is essentially unchanged from last time.
And Coalition odds were ridiculously high to drag in some interest. So ignore that too.
PB ALP peeps should be looking at any change in IPSOS before freaking out.
shellbell,
“If there are 23 too close to call, WB’s usual follow up Too Close to Call posts will be a mighty read”
As long as Frydenberg and Dutton feature it will be worth the words.
I’m not sure that looking too relaxed and comfortable would be a good look at this point either – you would take nothing for granted.
All Albo needs from the NPC is good sound bites for the nightly news, plus no gotchas. Surely that’s not too much to ask.
What I find singularly appealing about Albanese’s NPC address is that he’s not “speechifying”. Instead, it just sounds like he’s having a natural conversation with an intelligent audience.
I have previously underestimated Albanese’s abilities as a public speaker, but this address is the ideal way of expressing Labor’s vision prior to broadcast media advertising ceasing.
Can we fly in JG to Sturt? Yes, a risk, but she can be a crowd favourite if they choose the place carefully. Or do we want to erase the war?
Tom @ #933 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:29 am
They’ve already drawn in the suckers, that’s why the odds are shortening.
Albo’s genuineness shone at the NPC. A nice contrast to Morrison’s hectoring and smugness.
Rex Douglas:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 12:51 pm
[‘Did Keating write this speech ..?’]
Don’t know but it’s a pearler & very well delivered.
Two broad truths
1. The electorate really dislikes Scotty
2. The electorate is very unconvinced by Albo
So it’s the devil you know vs let’s kick this mob out. Which wins?
Given that ALP votes would plunge (by more than half) across a whole heap of seats being targeted by independents (such as McKeller and Wentworth) .. I wonder if that’s having some effect on the low ALP primary in polling data? (Avg since the start of the campaign has been a pretty low 34/35)
Eg, they got 17% of the vote in 2019 in McKeller, I reckon they’ll be lucky to get 8% this time .. as Labor are running dead and everyone’s piling on the indie
“* The first 23 least certain seats are held by the LNP. Just coin tossing I’d have no trouble thinking 10 or so them would be lost by the LNP, just under half.”
The trouble with this is that individual seats are not fully individual statistical events. Swings are not perfectly aligned but nor are they unrelated coin flips either.
Labor’s support likely to collapse down to its lowest ever primary vote. Cannot win government on 30% of the vote.
Coalition vote down too, but going to PHON and UAP.
This is classic 2019 with balls to boot
And a few more;
WA
Tangney: LNP $1.30 (was $1.40)
Hasluck: LNP $1.60 (was $1.75)
QLD
Brisbane: 50/50 (LNP were in front)
Ryan: ALP $3.25 (was $4)
BK
Before SfM appearances on tv they need to run these public service health warnings.
One Nation’s first SA MLC has told parliament that immigration has “enriched” the nation’s culture and skill base, defending “people’s right to maintain their culture and belief practices in Australia”.
In a further statement of policy and ideological separation from the party that installed her to the Legislative Council, Sarah Game – who last week declared herself at odds with a One Nation pledge to ban the teaching of foreign languages in schools – delivered her maiden speech late yesterday, championing immigration to Australia.
“My father is of Lithuanian and German heritage, born shortly after his parents immigrated to Australia,” she told parliament.
“My paternal grandparents were immigrants. They came to Australia after the Second World War, because their countries of birth had had their democracies destroyed.”
Game said: “I want to make clear that I support genuine refugee intake, and Australia’s responsibility to help communities overseas in need.”
“I support and acknowledge the benefit of sustainable cohesive immigration to Australia,” she said.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2022/05/18/one-nation-mp-defends-immigrants-right-to-maintain-culture/
Steve777 @ #929 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:26 pm
Looks more like Labor have sent preferences to any party that they think could take a seat that they would prefer over the Coalition. Also explains SFF. The only other parties that could feasibly win a senate seat are Coalition, PHON, and UAP, and Labor wouldn’t have preferenced PHON or UAP over Coalition.
@FreyaStark
30%? Not sure were those numbers come from. And if the Greens get the whopping numbers some polls suggest then most of that comes back to ALP.
Ipsos and Newspoll are now eagerly anticipated, if they drop down to 51-49/52-48 territory then maybe it will be a contest after all. But the Libs clearly think they’ve lost.
“BKsays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 1:01 pm
Albo’s genuineness shone at the NPC. A nice contrast to Morrison’s hectoring and smugness.”…
and Scomo’s no show for a last appearance at the NPC before the election….
Why is he hiding from scrutiny?…. Today’s announcement that he has delivered a real wage cut to Australians is not easy to spin as a “success”?….
Freya Stark @ #991 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:34 pm
FWIW, Newspoll had Greens primary above UAP and PHON combined. You would expect far more preference flows from Greens to ALP than UAP+PHON to Coalition. So unless there are “others” that change that dynamic, the Coalition need a higher primary than ALP in order to win the 2PP.
Investment opportunity for those that believe that the most recent polls are not reflective of the reality on the ground in this campaign and the consensus of the more reliable polls to come before polling day: ALP at $1.50.
If you trust IPSOS and Newspoll more than Resolve & Essential and believe that the aggregated polling trendline that was holding around 53.5/46.5 (before the release of Resolve & Essential) will continue to hold when these more credible polls are released over the next few days, then you should take the $1.50 on offer now before IPSOS is released this evening, because if the above assumptions hold, then the price will come tumbling back in as quick as it blew out.