Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 31, Greens 14

The final Resolve Strategic poll of the campaign has Labor’s primary vote even lower than 2019, but still has them ahead on two-party preferred.

The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.

The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.

With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.

UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.

UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 34, Labor 31, Greens 14”

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  1. Oakeshott Country says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:52 am

    Beguiled Again
    – and don’t forget the very imposing buildings and land of
    Repatriation General Hospital (Concord)

    ——————————————————————-

    Can’t forget it.

    My Mum, as a war widow, (my Dad, a veteran of both World Wars, died after discharge as a result of war service) spent a lot of time at the Repat and at the nearby wonderful Dame Eadith Walker convalescent home at Yaralla.

    And as you may recall we have discussed in the past the dramatic capture of Ronald Ryan at the hospital in January 1966, shortly after we had been there. We did not notice the deployment of 50 police who were set up in a trap at the hospital.

  2. Great Aunt Eunice says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:56 am
    Thank you young Mr Upnorth.
    During my pregnancies my doctor advised a pint of good stout to be taken with my evening meals on a Wednesday and Saturday , I’ve continued with this my whole life, and believe it has contributed to my incredible longevity.
    When that delightful Mr Green calls it for Mr Albanese on Saturday I think I’ll even have a splash or two of Bushmills whiskey.
    By the way, my sources tell me Mrs Keneally will romp it home in Fowler.
    ___________________________
    Knock it off Cousin Ruprecht we all know its you in the family.

    I don’t think Eunice would have cared about you taking her name in vain in death – but she would have been horrified at your “I am better than all of you ” teal presumptuousness. Your Audi Q7 isn’t even electric!

  3. “nathsays:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:38 am
    The Revisionist says:

    In 2016 the Greens went

    51 to 49 in Batman
    55 to 45 in Wills
    _______________
    And in 2007 they were on 13% and 17% pv respectively. I call that a dramatic increase in support.”

    Yeah, I reckon perhaps using 2007 as the base year could be your problem. Nobody is denying there was a considerable growth in the Green vote in gentrifying inner suburbs. You seem to be contorting yourself to deny that it has stalled.

    Since 2010 even it has more than stalled. The Greens PV in batman / cooper was 2% lower in 2019 than it was in 2010. That is in a decade of rapid gentrification

  4. “The whole Greens manifest destiny aint really coughing up much over this last decade but you keep lighting those candles.”

    Yep. That’s why I think the claims of when Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese retire the Greens will win Sydney or Grayndler are pie in the sky and way too premature.

    Labor campaigning on a Labor vs Liberals contest makes it hard for the Greens to get relevance or traction.


  5. The Revisionistsays:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:33 am
    “nathsays:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:23 am
    The Revisionist says:

    The interesting phenomena is that, despite continuing gentrification, those seats are further away from the Greens than they were a decade ago.
    ______________
    It would be interesting if that was true, but it’s not. The Greens are in 2pp contention in both seats and have done extraordinary well since 2007. They ALP will lose them eventually.”

    In 2016 the Greens went

    51 to 49 in Batman
    55 to 45 in Wills

    6 years on and they have no chance. Labor will have a 2CP in the 60s in both seats.

    The Greens know it too. Last election there were Greens corflutes and “Stop Labor’s Adani Mine” plastered across the two seats and now there are barely even any candidate ones

    The whole Greens manifest destiny aint really coughing up much over this last decade but you keep lighting those those candles”

    I don’t know whether nathis lighting any candles or not but Nath is trying to lit ALP-Greens war again.
    Please don’t start ALP-Greens war.

  6. Gorilla @ #434 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:04 pm

    Re those wage figures, I know that in the engineering/construction field, wages and salaries are increasing at much more than 2.4% – it’s double digit in some cases. I’ve heard similar in some other industries. There must therefore be a lot of people in other fields who are getting little or nothing…

    Look to the Service jobs that are carrying this country on their shoulders.

  7. The Revisionist says:

    Yeah, I reckon perhaps using 2007 as the base year could be your problem. Nobody is denying there was a considerable growth in the Green vote in gentrifying inner suburbs. You seem to be contorting yourself to deny that it has stalled.
    _________
    You can use 2004, 2001 and get an even greater increase. You are using 2019, a poor election for the Greens for your whole argument that the Greens have stalled. That might work for Cooper because the Greens over performed against Feeney, but their advance in Wills in undeniable.

    This election will add another data point. Your contention is that the status quo will prevail. My argument is that further change is very likely.

  8. I said late last week that Wednesday before polling day is dirt day.

    WA Today has two stories along those lines:

    The absent member for Tangney

    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/politician-payday-morton-spends-239-days-in-canberra-outside-sitting-weeks-on-taxpayers-dime-20220518-p5am88.html

    and the Big Tobacco candidate for Swan

    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/lung-foundation-calls-on-liberals-star-swan-candidate-to-reveal-relationship-with-big-tobacco-20220517-p5am2c.html

    Anyone else got local variations on the theme?

  9. BK at 11.30 re Teal vote…

    I’ve been wondering about the general splintering of voting and how it impacts overall 2PP calculation.

    E.g. in Wentworth (where I once lived) I would probably vote 1 Spender to poke the Liberals in the eye. I would preference Labor above Liberal, but would expect the final count to be between Spender and Sharma.

    How would my hypothetical vote be accounted for in the national 2PP? To Labor, because I preference them above Liberal?

    Can anyone explain how this might work?

    BTW, my sense of the polling is Labor’s 2022 2PP might be similar to 1972 and 2007 at 52.7%.

    Those two elections produced quite different outcomes in terms of seat totals:
    1972 67 of 125 (53.6%)
    2007 83 of 150 (55.3%)

    1972 was probably weighed down by DLP preferencing Liberal.

    2022 might be superficially similar to 2007 – about 53.6% of seats, or 81, going to Labor.

    The big problem for the Coalition is the 2 flank war they’re fighting: against Labor in marginal (or not so marginal, like Bennelong) seats, and against various ‘centre-right’ independents (not just Teals – the Hinkler IND comes to mind) in formerly heartland seats.

    We could end up with 80 ALP – a workable majority, but not landslide – anywhere between 8 and 15 cross benchers (most of them committed to integrity, climate action and respect for women) and 63 to 56 Coalition.

    If Labor win majority, can negotiate the difficult economic circumstances and deliver a FICAC, reasonable climate action (sorry, Fire-Fox!) and enacting of Jenkins recommendations, the INDs could campaign for re-election based on delivering their promises (even if Labor actually delivered.)

    60 seats or less for the Coalition, with a compromised heartland, could make returning to govt a difficult path.

  10. Honestly, that ad will appeal to people who wouldn’t know a double negative if they fell over one. It gets the message across that Labor wants.

  11. Ven says:

    I don’t know whether nathis lighting any candles or not but Nath is trying to lit ALP-Greens war again.
    Please don’t start ALP-Greens war.
    ______
    Ven do you have a crush on me? I’m taken.

  12. VIC :

    Victoria has recorded another 22 COVID-related deaths.

    There are 510 people in hospital after contracting the virus, including 31 patients in ICU and five on ventilators.

    There were 14,220 new cases reported to authorities, taking the number of active infections to 78,017.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    NSW:

    NSW has recorded 12,297 new COVID cases.

    Another 14 people have died after testing positive.

    There are 1,395 people hospitalised with the virus; 57 of those are being treated in intensive care.

  13. Rewi, I am glad to see this in the media as I also got a letterbox drop with a pamphlet pointing out just how much time he spends in Canberra and Sydney rather than the beautiful streets of Tangney. Appears to spend the whole campaign with morrison too.

  14. So if Smoko survives what the fuck are they going to do for 3 years? Just sit on his arse and legislate nothing?

    ____________
    Which is pretty much what he has promised.

  15. steve davis says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 12:16 pm

    So if Smoko survives what the fuck are they going to do for 3 years? Just sit on his arse and legislate nothing?
    ______
    He’s going to enjoy the trappings of office. Strengthen his faction. Soak in those Kirribilli views. Yell at people, and post plenty of curries on twitter for our enjoyment.

  16. Despite the last couple of polls Mordor Media’s ‘editor at large’, his holiness Paul the Pontificator, is not sounding confident.
    .

    PM a fighter but revamp may be too late

    Scott Morrison’s focus is hard power – economics, finance, security – but the country has embraced a soft power in which the norms of acceptability, ethics and virtue shifted.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/election-2022-pm-a-fighter-but-revamp-might-be-too-late/news-story/2b1ed71829adfc7400318f0df949db5d

  17. @steve davis

    If he wins, or whoever wins, the winner will need to deal with RBA raising rates, house prices dropping, pressure on people with mortgages, inflation peaking at 6-7%, uncertain future of commodity prices. Not to mention foreign policy challenges. Right now.

    Not an easy job. The government has limited control over all of those but will take a lot of blame.


  18. nathsays:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 12:16 pm
    Ven says:

    I don’t know whether nathis lighting any candles or not but Nath is trying to lit ALP-Greens war again.
    Please don’t start ALP-Greens war.
    ______
    Ven do you have a crush on me? I’m taken.

    No. I am heterosexual. 🙂

  19. Jan @ #857 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 11:28 am

    Completely off-topic from polls, elections, running numbers and working the phones, I was wondering what fellow PB’s thoughts are regarding the effectiveness or otherwise of LinkedIn.

    I have found that people on Linkedin who use it a lot are people who need more work. Or companies that can afford someone to post in there a lot. Or recruitment peeps.

    I like it as an address book. I find the information posted not useful beyond people patting themselves on the back.

    I get emails daily telling me of wonderful ideas that someone else has had, marketing by consultants I’m linked to, and job opportunities, even though my profile says RETIRED. Sometimes it’s handy to keep in touch with a distant work colleague. And I can follow careers of people in the next generations.

  20. “@steve davis

    If he wins, or whoever wins, the winner will need to deal with RBA raising rates, house prices dropping, pressure on people with mortgages, inflation peaking at 6-7%, uncertain future of commodity prices. Not to mention foreign policy challenges. Right now.”

    And you’ve omitted the biggest challenge of all, massive investment in renewables here and through foreign aid in other countries.

  21. nath @ #917 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:18 pm

    steve davis says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 12:16 pm

    So if Smoko survives what the fuck are they going to do for 3 years? Just sit on his arse and legislate nothing?
    ______
    He’s going to enjoy the trappings of office. Strengthen his faction. Soak in those Kirribilli views. Yell at people, and post plenty of curries on twitter for our enjoyment.

    He will be having views of the Shire, not Kirribilli.

  22. Re dy/dx @11:48.

    “The Lib Dems also have ALP above LNP”

    Labor are numbering LDP 5 on their NSW Senate HTV ticket (they are only numbering 6). Maybe there’s been a deal?

  23. The hard work that will need to be done to rectify the problems that the Coalition government has caused in the Australian economy is best done by Labor.

  24. “This election will add another data point. Your contention is that the status quo will prevail. My argument is that further change is very likely.”

    ***

    The Greens campaign in Cooper has been exceptionally good this time. Much better than the last couple for sure. Celeste Liddle has really re-energized the local Greens and they’ve been supporting her campaign with great enthusiasm. Sarah Jefford’s campaign in Wills has been going well too apparently.

  25. No, BK and steve davis re…

    “So if Smoko survives what the fuck is he going to do for 3 years? Just sit on his arse and legislate nothing?”

    He’s going to give us religious bigotry, zero wages growth, ongoing deficits, buggered up super, further hidden erosion of Medicare, further erosion of health spending to states, massive military spending for no weapons, China partnerships with all Pacific neighbours except NZ (and the French – New Caledonia, Tahiti etc)…

    I would have have thought the agenda was clear from the public record…

  26. Yes Freya but tellingly:

    – No to hung parliament is $1.60. (Yes is $2.25)

    By Friday night / Saturday morning coalition will be close to $4

  27. “Sportsbet ALP 1.50 Coalition 2.75

    Continuing the trend and narrowing…”

    Lol a market correction, I’ve always been doubtful, but both the blowout to Labor and this contraction seem more idiot sheep based than reliable indicator.

    But I know ‘markets are magic’

    Goddess and unicorns save us all.

  28. And so it came to be : The dreaded 51-49 polls magically appeared on the eve of the election.

    Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. 2019 all over again.

  29. “The hard work that will need to be done to rectify the problems that the Coalition government has caused in the Australian economy is best done by Labor.”

    ***

    Labor have been causing the problems with the Coalition – they teamed up together to give tax cuts to the rich while also leaving people doing it tough on JobSeeker and the Pension in poverty.

  30. “ He will be having views of the Shire, not Kirribilli.”

    Other alternatives present themselves:

    – views of NY from the World Headquarters of Hillsong,

    – views of the exercise yard from the Malabar Hilton.

  31. “So if Smoko survives what the fuck are they going to do for 3 years? Just sit on his arse and legislate nothing?”

    More of the same. Cuts, privatisations, helping out mates, attacks on the ABC and other class enemies, culture war stuff, supporting and generally running interference for fossil fuels. Maybe catch up on industrial relations “reform” which he couldn’t do this time. Also dust off the IPA wish list and the zombie 2014 Budget measures (they’re not dead, just sleeping) under cover of “Budget Repair”. Sign us up for any war the USA buys into (or starts).

  32. A general question- any chance that seats that are won by Teals will see a rise in TPP for the LNP over Labor? Just trying to make sense of the Resolve and Essential polling, especially in NSW.

  33. The Age 18/05
    Police have decided not to lay any charges after a Labor volunteer at a south-eastern Queensland pre-polling centre claimed he was assaulted by the LNP candidate for Bowman, Henry Pike.

    The Labor volunteer filed the complaint against Pike on Monday morning, but Pike said he was “acting in self-defence” and was “provoked” by Labor volunteers attaching signs to his marquee.

    Queensland Police Service said in a statement that it had finalised its investigation and that no charges would laid.
    _____________________
    The Labor volunteer should have been charged with wasting police time and what on earth was he doing attaching signs to Pikes marquee.

  34. I have noticed that when it comes to betting markets that the slightest hint of a move to the conservatives has markets tumbling. I also ponder if some punters who got Labor at good odds($1.90 at the end of week 1) are just making sure of a certain win.

  35. Other thoughts.

    Palazsczuk’s first win was by the skin of her teeth. But it was a win and it turfed Newman.

    I’ve been exploring AE Forecast. I like it. So that’s what I’ll base my guesses on.
    Seat count On The Night
    ALP 65
    LNP 58
    IND 2
    GRN 1
    KAP 1
    CA 1

    Final seat count
    ALP 80
    LNP 60
    IND 7
    GRN 2
    KAP 1
    CA 1

    A.Green calls it at 9:30pm
    Mr Morrison concedes at 11:30pm.

  36. Late Riser @ #938 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:34 pm

    BK @ #903 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 12:08 pm

    …image snipped…
    Pity about the double negative.

    You get a second to make your message. The word FALL, a huge number, and Mr Morrison is all most will remember.

    “Fall” and “-2.7%” reinforce each other. Most people don’t think mathematically unless forced to do so. Actually good marketing work to present two negative thoughts out of one fact.

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