Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7

Essential Research joins in on the tightening race narrative, although it gets there through preferences rather than primary votes. Also featured: many seat polls, one of which has independent Kate Chaney leading in Curtin, and even polls for the Senate.

The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.

My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.

Other polling news:

The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.

Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.

Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.

• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.

• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.

Senate news:

• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.

The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.

• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.

Non-polling news:

Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.

Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.

• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7”

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  1. If you have a compulsory voting system then it seems fair to allow ppl options to vote on days other than election day that may be more convenient for them. A 2 week voting period seems reasonable, no questions asked.

  2. “Firefox, your waiting until a new page of comments to post spam is irritating. Just sayin…”

    ***

    This from the poster who’s most notable contribution so far has been responding to policy announcements with enlightened comments about “unicorn farts”. Give me a fricking break.

  3. Firefox’s latest “spam” shows what people actually need but the major parties don’t want to talk about. The major parties have offered little to nothing this campaign and if people react rationally to the campaign we’ll end up with a hung parliament.

  4. mj @ #957 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:18 pm

    Firefox’s latest “spam” is what people need but the major parties don’t want to talk about. The major parties have offered next to nothing and if people react rationally to the campaign we’ll end up with a hung parliament.

    If people voted rationally the Green’s and the Coalition would get few votes.

    The Green’s have given little evidence they have any idea of how their policies could be implemented and the Coalition have basically none.

  5. Unicorn farts are a far more useful objective than greens policies. I mean… maybe someday someone will figure out how to make a unicorn.

  6. “Unicorn farts are a far more useful objective than greens policies. I mean… maybe someday someone will figure out how to make a unicorn.”

    ***

    Yeah righto, thanks for proving my point.

  7. Upnorth says Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:05 pm

    Dads Army, To the Manor Born, Blakes 7. Have started to watch The Bill from series 1. They smoked at work and went to the pub for lunch!!! I’m up to series 4 1988 – still not much PC.

    I rewatched the first three episodes of Blakes 7 on YouTube. The acting did appear a bit over the top (especially Brian Blessed in episode three).

  8. The inevitable ” morrison shooting stars ” meme

    https://twitter.com/ethanmeldrum_/status/1526875444678561793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1526875444678561793%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

    Re. PVO –

    I’ve mentioned before that major beef between him and the POMO all started during the white house visit.
    PVO was pushing hard asking Shirko about brian houston and copped a catty txt from someone in the PMO.

    Open contempt from him towards morrison ever since , least that’s the vibe i get
    ( i’m a Pisces – there’s always a vibe )

  9. ShaneB at 12.38

    It’s the Constitution…it’s Mabo…it’s the vibe…

    …It’s the vibe of the thing, really…

  10. mj @ #960 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:32 pm

    Barney, you have left out Labor who according to your logic must be shoe-ins to win in a landslide.

    Well if you look at their policies they actually have thought out them out.

    Little things like making sure the transmission network is able is able to cope with all the new inputs from a variety of different locations.

    The Green’s focus seems to be just build the new solar and wind farms which would potentially leave many being idle while the infrastructure caught up.

  11. bc says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 12:37 am

    Upnorth says Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:05 pm

    Dads Army, To the Manor Born, Blakes 7. Have started to watch The Bill from series 1. They smoked at work and went to the pub for lunch!!! I’m up to series 4 1988 – still not much PC.

    I rewatched the first three episodes of Blakes 7 on YouTube. The acting did appear a bit over the top (especially Brian Blessed in episode three).
    __________________

    Crazy thing is he changed his name, got younger, and is now running for the ALP in the seat of Hunter

  12. Barney, I agree that Labor is a far better option to the LNP but I don’t think they or Labor are going to be seen to change much to address serious generational inequality.

  13. mj @ #972 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:52 pm

    Barney, I agree that Labor is a far, far better option to the LNP but I don’t think they are going to be seen to change much to address serious intergenerational inequality.

    Probably not this Parliament, but once they have the Treasury benches then they can start making the case for these kind of changes.

    Unfortunately they are not the kind of issues that win you Government.

  14. @Firefox

    The greens are entirely correct , the only way to deal with housing affordability is for the state to step in with a mass home building program to vastly increase supply like British governments did in the twenty years after world war 2.

    Anything else will be at best ineffectual and more likely counter productive.There is a lot cognitive dissonance around this issue as a majority of the electorate are already land owners/ mortgagees so real estate hyper inflation suits then just fine.Any government that really tackles the issue is unlikely to get any thanks for it, quite the opposite actually.

  15. Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 12:56 am
    mj @ #972 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:52 pm

    Barney, I agree that Labor is a far, far better option to the LNP but I don’t think they are going to be seen to change much to address serious intergenerational inequality.

    Probably not this Parliament, but once they have the Treasury benches then they can start making the case for these kind of changes.

    –——————————

    It’s difficult because it’s hard to see how it’ll be resolved within the current political makeup. Nothing much will change until, and if, things become really problematic.

  16. SSnappy Tom @ 12.53am

    Fave Aussie movie(s) ?
    No order –

    ” Malcolm ”
    ” Chopper ”
    ” Mad Max : Fury Road “

  17. mj @ #977 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 11:09 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 12:56 am
    mj @ #972 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:52 pm

    Barney, I agree that Labor is a far, far better option to the LNP but I don’t think they are going to be seen to change much to address serious intergenerational inequality.

    Probably not this Parliament, but once they have the Treasury benches then they can start making the case for these kind of changes.

    –——————————

    It’s difficult because it’s hard to see how it’ll be resolved within the current political makeup. Nothing much will change until and if things become really problematic.

    It’s not so much the political make up, it’s more the voter demographics that have proven to be reluctant to vote for the uncertainty that a change agenda represents.

  18. Steve777: Re Quad.
    If Morriscum was still PM, or the final result was still to be decided, your scenario is correct.
    Like all LNP administrations, Morriscum would be told the meeting outcomes and respond as he was told.
    Morriscum’s attendance is relevant – apart from his photo-op to demonstrate to an awed Australian public how important he is to be in the company of real leaders.
    If Albanese is PM, real negotiations and debate would be required.
    We all remember the Lying Rodent and his deputy sheriff drivel – it’s all part of the DNA of the LNP.

  19. In relation to Morrison almost squashing that child in the soccer game, contrast the media coverage of that with the media coverage of PM Julia Gillard breaking the heel of her shoe. The former is barely mentioned, Heel-gate was treated akin to Gillard pushing the button to start a nuclear war.

  20. PB GUESSING GAME, May-19 13:01
    FINAL SEAT COUNTS (sorted by alphabetically)

    80 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 Median
    82 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 Mode
    80 | 62 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 Mean
    99 | 79 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 13 Max
    66 | 36 | 1 | 1 | | | 1 Min

    ALP | LNP | KAP | GRN | CA | Teal|other 72 Respondents
    82 | 60 | — | 1 | — | — | 8 AB (May-16 22:01)
    85 | — | — | — | — | — | — Adrian Beaumont (May-16 17:31)
    83 | 60 | — | — | — | — | 8 allin127 (May-16 00:27)
    81 | — | — | — | — | — | — Andrew_Earlwood (May-17 09:03)
    82 | 56 | — | — | — | — | 13 B.S. Fairman (May-17 12:24)
    80 | 63 | — | 1 | — | 2 | 5 BeaglieBoy (May-16 14:13)
    77 | — | — | — | — | — | — BK (May-16 17:36)
    99 | 36 | — | 1 | — | 14 | 1 Bludging (May-19 13:01)
    73 | 72 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 bluepill (May-16 18:15)
    80 | — | — | — | — | — | — Bluey (several seats) (May-17 17:02)
    81 | 60 | — | 1 | — | — | 9 Boinzo (May-17 11:35)
    90 | 55 | — | — | — | — | 6 bug1 (May-17 15:35)
    77 | 65 | — | — | — | — | 9 centaur21 (May-17 11:52)
    — | 51 | — | — | — | — | — Confessions (May-16 05:39)
    79 | 62 | — | — | — | — | 10 Cronus (May-16 18:54)
    79 | 62 | — | 1 | — | — | 9 Dandy Murray-Honeydew (May-17 09:54)
    78 | 62 | — | 2 | — | — | 9 Dandy Murray-Honeydew (May-17 09:54)
    84 | — | — | — | — | — | — d-money (May-15 18:57)
    79 | 62 | — | 1 | — | — | 9 Douglas and Milko (May-17 15:46)
    87 | 55 | — | — | — | — | 9 Edward Boyce (May-15 15:01)
    78 | — | — | — | — | — | — Evan (May-16 17:34)
    81 | — | — | — | — | — | — Expat Follower (May-17 11:48)
    95 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 frednk (May-16 23:21)
    66 | 79 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 3 Freya Stark’s gut (May-19 15:19)
    84 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 7 Freya Stark’s head (May-15 18:39)
    73 | 69 | — | — | — | — | 9 Geetroit (May-16 17:45)
    92 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 1 GlenO (May-15 22:29)
    76 | 66 | — | — | — | — | 9 Goll (May-16 19:03)
    81 | 48 | 1 | 8 | — | 5 | 8 Grant_ExLibris (May-17 12:53)
    82 | 61 | — | — | — | — | 8 Hugoaugogo (May-16 15:19)
    78 | 69 | — | — | — | — | 9 imacca (May-17 11:39)
    76 | 70 | — | — | — | — | 5 It’s Time (May-17 10:20)
    72 | 72 | — | 2 | — | — | 5 Jan (May-17 10:25)
    74 | 69 | — | 2 | — | — | 6 JayC (May-16 20:29)
    80 | 62 | — | 2 | — | 2 | 5 JM from QLD (May-17 11:04)
    77 | — | — | — | — | — | — Kevin Bonham (per Ven) (May-19 10:03)
    80 | — | — | — | — | — | — King OMalley (May-15 22:05)
    86 | — | — | — | — | — | — King OMalley (May-16 17:40)
    78 | — | — | — | — | — | — Lars Von Trier (May-15 18:46)
    80 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | 7 Late Riser (May-18 12:39)
    — | 51 | — | — | — | — | — ltep #1 (May-16 05:05)
    70 | — | — | — | — | — | — ltep #2 (May-17 15:33)
    82 | 61 | 1 | 1 | | | 6 Luke (May-16 19:19)
    74 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 7 Magnetar (May-16 23:27)
    70 | 72 | 1 | 2 | — | 6 | — Matt (May-16 23:42)
    70 | 72 | 1 | 2 | — | — | 6 Matt (May-17 13:04)
    78 | 65 | — | — | — | — | 8 max (May-16 14:05)
    72 | 70 | — | 2 | — | 4 | 3 meher baba (May-17 11:53)
    80 | 58 | — | 2 | — | — | 11 Mick Quinlivan (May-17 17:22)
    82 | 58 | — | 2 | — | — | 9 mj (May-17 00:10)
    78 | — | — | — | — | — | — Mr. Curlew (May-15 22:10)
    75 | 75 | — | — | — | — | 1 mundo (May-17 12:09)
    79 | 62 | — | — | — | — | 10 Ophuph Hucksake (May-16 18:30)
    81 | — | — | — | — | — | — outside left (May-17 07:16)
    78 | — | — | — | — | — | — Outsider (May-16 17:26)
    79 | 63 | — | 2 | — | — | 7 PaulTu (May-16 15:24)
    82 | 60 | — | 1 | — | 2 | 6 Puffytmd (May-16 21:30)
    82 | 59 | — | 1 | — | — | 9 Rossmore (May-17 10:23)
    77 | 66 | — | — | — | — | 8 Sandman (May-16 20:15)
    89 | — | — | — | — | — | — Sceptic (May-17 17:10)
    89 | — | — | — | — | — | — Scott (May-16 00:00)
    80 | — | — | — | — | — | — sonar (May-15 18:31)
    77 | — | — | — | — | — | — steve davis (May-16 17:40)
    91 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 subgeometer (May-17 12:37)
    91 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 6 Tazza (May-16 22:37)
    80 | 60 | — | — | — | — | 11 The loose unit (May-16 09:38)
    82 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — The loose unit (May-16 17:12)
    85 | 54 | — | — | — | — | 12 Toby Esterhase (May-17 12:00)
    82 | — | — | — | — | — | — Upnorth (May-16 19:17)
    71 | 70 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 Victor (May-17 00:47)
    77 | 65 | — | — | — | — | 9 Work To Rule (May-17 08:21)
    81 | 59 | — | 2 | — | — | 9 yabba (May-17 12:08)

  21. 91 | 52 | 1 | 1 | — | 4 | 2
    AG will call it at 8:30pm – we won’t even need to go west.
    ScoMo will appear at 11:45pm
    Albo will be on after midnight!

  22. PB GUESSING GAME, May-19 13:01
    TPP (FINAL) (sorted alphabetically)

    ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP Median
    ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP Mode
    ALP 53.2 to 46.8 LNP Mean
    ALP 55.4 to 49.0 LNP Max
    ALP 51.0 to 44.6 LNP Min

    ALP / LNP 51 Respondents
    53.5 / 46.5 Adrian Beaumont, May-16 17:31
    53.4 / 46.6 allin127, May-16 00:27
    53.0 / 47.0 Andrew_Earlwood, May-17 09:03
    53.1 / 46.9 BeaglieBoy, May-16 14:13
    52.5 / 47.5 BK, May-16 17:36
    53.2 / 46.8 Boinzo, May-17 11:35
    52.9 / 47.1 Cronus, May-16 18:54
    53.7 / 46.3 Dandy Murray-Honeydew, May-17 09:54
    54.4 / 45.6 d-money, May-15 18:57
    52.7 / 47.3 Douglas and Milko, May-17 15:46
    54.8 / 45.2 Edward Boyce, May-15 15:01
    53.5 / 46.5 Evan, May-16 17:34
    52.8 / 47.2 Expat Follower, May-16 17:03
    52.2 / 47.8 Geetroit, May-16 17:45
    55.4 / 44.6 GlenO, May-15 22:29
    52.5 / 47.5 Historyintime, May-15 22:29
    53.2 / 46.8 Hugoaugogo, May-16 15:19
    53.0 / 47.0 imacca, May-17 11:39
    52.0 / 48.0 It’s Time, May-17 10:20
    52.0 / 48.0 Jan, May-17 10:25
    51.0 / 49.0 JayC, May-16 20:29
    53.0 / 47.0 JM from QLD, May-17 11:04
    53.0 / 47.0 Kevin Bonham (per bc), May-17 01:41
    53.7 / 46.3 King OMalley, May-15 22:05
    53.7 / 46.3 King OMalley, May-16 17:40
    51.9 / 48.1 Lars Von Trier, May-15 18:46
    54.1 / 45.9 Luke, May-16 19:19
    52.0 / 48.0 Lynchpin, May-18 05:02
    52.4 / 47.6 max, May-16 14:05
    54.3 / 45.7 mj, May-17 00:10
    54.3 / 45.7 Mr. Curlew, May-15 22:10
    52.3 / 47.7 Ophuph Hucksake, May-16 18:30
    52.4 / 47.6 Outsider, May-16 17:26
    53.6 / 46.4 PaulTu, May-16 15:24
    53.0 / 47.0 Pica, May-16 14:47
    55.0 / 45.0 PuffyTMD, May-15 20:59
    55.0 / 45.0 Puffytmd, May-16 21:30
    53.5 / 46.5 Rossmore , May-17 10:23
    52.2 / 47.8 SA Bludger, May-16 17:59
    51.9 / 48.1 Sandman, May-16 20:15
    52.5 / 47.5 Sceptic (WB??), May-16 18:43
    53.2 / 46.8 sonar, May-15 18:31
    52.3 / 47.7 steve davis, May-16 17:15
    52.5 / 47.5 steve davis, May-16 17:40
    55.4 / 44.6 subgeometer, May-17 12:37
    54.5 / 45.5 Tazza, May-16 22:37
    53.0 / 47.0 The loose unit, May-16 17:12
    54.3 / 45.8 Tom, May-16 18:23
    52.4 / 47.6 Work To Rule, May-17 08:21
    53.4 / 46.6 yabba, May-17 12:08

  23. Thank you, Late Riser, for running the 2022 Election Guessing Game.

    My guesses are based on hope, not on science!
    Who is going to design the Election Night TV Coverage Drinking Game.

    I will start with:
    ‘It is not over yet.’ – Drink one shot of Vanilla Coke.

  24. From Twitter

    DownWithTheLNP Retweeted
    Dr. Barney Langford
    @shal2500
    ·
    8m
    total failure of foreign policy. a complete abrogation of this government’s sovereign responsibilities for the security of the nation and its responsibilities to the region
    Quote Tweet
    Dan McGarry
    @dailypostdan
    · 15m
    Half an hour ago, the Government of Vanuatu signed a financing agreement with China EXIM Bank to upgrade Pekoa airport in Luganville, Santo to allow international air traffic.

    No further details are available at this time.

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