Utting Research Perth seat polls and Liberal Party briefing wars

New seat polls suggest Labor on track for two gains in Western Australia, although the going is a lot heavier for them than when a similar exercise was conducted in March.

The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).

• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).

• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).

• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).

Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.

The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).

Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Utting Research Perth seat polls and Liberal Party briefing wars”

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  1. From a member of lizzie’s family —

    It was truly beautiful to read the wonderful comments from your shared community – thank you to everyone who contributed to these messages and also to the ones who chose not to write anything but still regard Zoë or Lizzie!

    Zoë has been honoured by your diverse group and it gives much comfort to know she was loved and respected as we know she deserved with her inclusive understanding and clear communication to regard of all walks of life.

  2. jt1983

    ….D&M … seriously… isn’t it plainly obvious who “Freya” is?

    That is why is used the italics in my post 😉

  3. SA Bludger says:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:27 pm
    I’m surprised we don’t have an Ipsos or Resolve.

    Since there will be no newspoll tonight, there may be Ipsos or Resolve tonight when newspoll is normally released

  4. On some personal news unrelated to politics, tomorrow is my last day in the COVID lounge and I’m an uncle for the seventh and likely last time.

    My stay in the COVID lounge has been pleasant & uneventful, with special thanks to the science of immunisation & good luck. The arrival of niece or nephew #7 an hour or so ago was similarly uneventful, with mum & the unnamed & unsexed baby being safe & healthy.

  5. Putin’s stupidity is ending in humiliation. With NATO being strengthened, and his army being destroyed.

    Finland has formally confirmed it intends to join Nato, abandoning decades of military non-alignment in a historic decision triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    “Finland is applying for Nato membership,” said the country’s president, Sauli Niinistö, at a press conference. “A protected Finland is being born as part of a stable, strong and responsible Nordic region. We gain security and we also share it. It’s good to keep in mind that security isn’t a zero-sum game.”

    The prime minister, Sanna Marin, said the proposal would now be sent to parliament for ratification. “Our decision is historic,” she said. “As a member of Nato, we will also be responsible for the security of the alliance as a whole.”


  6. feel for the staffers who have had to watch hours + hours of video of ScoMo and Albo – just in case so they can make a point in rebuttal. Surely there are better things to do with your life.

  7. Late Risersays:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:13 pm
    King OMalley @ #1017 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 7:08 pm

    @Late Riser When do nominations close for the guessing comp?

    They stay open until I get bored or overwhelmed by other matters or until the results come in.

    Put me down for Labor 77 Coalition 66 Others 8 please.

  8. I heard albo was involved in the bowling green massacre.

    I wonder what smocking covfefe sky has against albo.

  9. I understand there are videos of a younger Albo supporting the Palestinian cause, and given it is the ALP platform, this is not a surprise.

    There are a number of policies in the ALP platform which the parliamentary leadership is not progressing with.

  10. I’m going to give it rest tonight, but I’ll check back maybe later or tomorrow. For now I’ve recorded guess by the following.

    Freya Stark’s gut
    Freya Stark’s head
    Lars von Trier


  11. On Donetsk + Luhansk. (The Donbass)

    The Russians control over 80% of Luhansk. Too soon to call a Russian defeat.

  12. My prediction:
    Mon morning: Due to this housing idea, there will be a tightening, and some polling will reflect that. Many people will start worrying.
    Mon evening: Albo/Clare/Chalmers says something in reply to that idea again, and makes more sense to people.
    Tues: SfM smirks and lies again, and says something REALLY awful. Probably about women. People remember that he is an awful person
    Polls start to shift back to where they are now.
    Wed/Th/Fri – see saws back and forth. SfM comes out with some ludicrous statement or some unicorn policy that gets the attention of the low-info voters, and the ALP equal it with reality.

    I’d say don’t take tonight as the end of that good polls for the ALP. SfM can’t help being a fwit, because he is one, and he doesn’t have any emotional intellligence to do anything about it.
    He’s his own worst enemy.

    He’ll stuff up at least once in the next few days. Probably many. And he’ll think God will give him a medal for every thing he said.

    How does someone becomes so decrepit as he has? Did his parents tell him the earth was flat every day of his childhood?

  13. AE

    Thanks. I was out earlier and will read your earlier posts.

    Quite apart from the more dubious aspects of how the choice was made, which we both question, the other part I find odd is, why the 18 month delay?

    If they have already chosen which sub, why not announce then work out how to build it? At least then industry would start getting organised, knowing what bids would be coming. This pretending they have not chosen a boat for 18 months looks like a stalling tactic.

    I don’t trust anything they say at this point, irrespective of which option.

  14. if palistine is involved the zelit michael danby must be leaking against albanese all ready trying to undermine marles is labors trurnbull has no labor values and belongs in libs even more extreme than james paterson palastine is not as radicle as it used to be do not think this will hurst albo danby should retire and get over fct shorten no longer runs vick right hope shorten pulls his faction in to lynn danby on chris kenny cclaiming marles is a chinease pupit trying to paint this litel knows branch stacker anthony byrne who made litel impact in 20 tyears as the only person saving labor from china

  15. Grimace says:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:29 pm
    On some personal news unrelated to politics, tomorrow is my last day in the COVID lounge and I’m an uncle for the seventh and likely last time.

    My stay in the COVID lounge has been pleasant & uneventful, with special thanks to the science of immunisation & good luck. The arrival of niece or nephew #7 an hour or so ago was similarly uneventful, with mum & the unnamed & unsexed baby being safe & healthy.

    I’m happy to hear the news on both scores, Grim.

  16. Standard lefty rhetoric on Israel / Palestine isn’t enough to sink Albo especially if its video from 20 years ago.

  17. Steve777:

    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:11 pm

    I know it’ll be close but I’m as confident as Zimmerman getting up as I’m with Fyrdenderg’s prospects. Not sure about Sharma though, nor Wilson, the latter of whom seems to think it’ll be a laydown misere, without doing the hard yards.

  18. hiprocrits that sky usis the reactionary danby who is to the right of james paterson on israile yet when turnbull does same thing and advicate vote foor teels they demand he be sensored yet danby is advicating liberal vote and no calls for exbulltion if continues thankfuly only sky after dark cares byrne was uselis thats whiy liberals liked him if he was so good on security as the reactionys sugest never became a shadow minister and never had security background he is no los hope the new mp is a true labor member

  19. Omen , Is Morrison following the footsteps of the defeated Howard government

    2007 John Howard announced the lib/nats final major campaign policy 6 days before the federal election , and it was about housing

  20. There’s no dirt on Albo because, firstly, he isn’t dirty. Secondly, if there was they would have released it well before now. Unless it involves a goat, leaving it this late is far too risky a thing to do.

    There’s nothing. Sure they’ll try to context something, but there’s nothing.

  21. Burgey the Michael Daley video came out on the Monday before the Saturday of the NSW election and is widely regarded as having sunk his campaign.

    Not sure if the Libs or Labor have something of similar quality – but you would think if they had something Wed or Thu would be optimal to do the damage / distract before voting.

  22. Another omen ,this one Morrison is likely to avoid
    John Howard was at the launch , John Howard(Prime Minister ) lost his seat

  23. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1061 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 7:31 pm

    “ Both very good but for sheer grandiosity and compulsive viewing I think GoT takes the cake. There have been a number of imitators since but nothing has come close. A redefining tv event that ushered in the golden age of tv drama on a grand scale.”

    I feel ya … but Seasons 7 & 8. Truly awful.

    for me the redefining tv event of the last decade would have to be season 1 of True Detective. Followed closely by Breaking Bad/Better call Saul and … The Expanse.

    Yes, The Expanse was a good sci fi. However the ending was obviously contrive due to the cancellation at the end of the season and left many threads hanging for a potential resurrection.

  24. Lars,
    Daley was never winning the NSW election. They could leave it that late because they were a mile in front anyway.
    They’ve got nothing on him. Because there’s nothing to have.

  25. Michael Manetta who has been stood down from AAT for not being friendly enough to LNP govt was politically active liberal in SA for many years.

  26. The first order issue with respect to Israel/Palestine is why give it a priority for attention over all other conflicts around the globe.

    IMO, it might be legitimate to do so but there would have to be a conscious decision with a cogent reason so to do.

    ATM priority attention is being given to Putin’s War for, IMO, legitimate reasons.

    Other than that I have a curiosity. If Frydenberg describes him as a Jew then it would seem legitimate to call Frydenberg a Jew But GlenO might have other views. If so, I am genuinely curious about this.

    ‘Melbourne Jew’ is something else entirely. I have heard it used in what could only be anti-semitic contexts: ‘sharp in business’ and ‘aggressively litigious’. These stereotypes are instantly recognizable.

    As for Markson, totally compromised already, IMO. She is worth avoiding.

  27. Apropos COVID-19, my mother was telling me that an operation that my dad was going to have done on his knee has been postponed, likely indefinitely, because his surgeon has contracted COVID-19 and has become very, very ill, to the extent that he will likely never return to work again! 🙁

    It just amazes me the variable nature of this disease. That one triple vaxxed individual can get it and arrive out the other side almost uneventfully, yet others who are also fully vaxxed, and seemingly approximately in a similar demographic, in this instance white, male, middle aged and relatively healthy, can get it and get very sick indeed, some, as we are seeing every day even still dying from it. 🙁

  28. Game of Thrones is one of the best TV series I have ever watched, on all levels, including the music.

    I will need to watch it all a second time, just to pick up stuff I might have missed. I just rewatched the Korean Drama ‘Law School’ and now that I am a very fast subtitle reader, I found stuff I had missed. The music score is fabulous. I would recommend Crash Landing on You, a series that you will now have to hunt for It is a really good Korean Drama romance/drama that focuses on mostly on the lives of people in NK and the ones who want to go to the West.

    It was praised for its realistic depiction of ordinary North Koreans in their villages just getting on in life like all of us and ones caught in roles they did not want (the soldier who had to listen to all their telephone calls). They had NK defectors as consultants.

    On the numbers of Covid deaths in North Korea, you can bet your house it is much much more than they are letting on. Remember, Dear Leader creates the perfect state of living for North Koreans, away from the evils of the West. We probably will never know the final total of deaths due to Covid. Kim Une Arskehole has already rejected Western vaccines because to use them means keeping records.

    When is the world going to collectively do something about tyrants ruling countries for decades (in the case of NK, across generations of the Kim family) before a mechanism is set up to remove those who commit crimes against humanity? It is the 21st century after all.

    Also ALP 55-45 and whatever amount of seats that turns into, is my prediction.

    I think an ALP win is as sure a bet as Ukraine winning the Eurovision Song Contest. (Their act deserved the win in any case. It was fantastic.)

  29. Yes, The Expanse was a good sci fi. However the ending was obviously contrive due to the cancellation at the end of the season and left many threads hanging for a potential resurrection.
    It’s time, without giving any spoilers, as Rocket Rocket hasm’t yet seen it, the end of season 6 is actually pretty similar to the end of the corresponding book. Some of the threads left hanging at the end of the season are taken up and tied up in the last 3 books.

  30. An anti-semitism allegation was inevitable given the people who advise the Liberals. Same playbook they used in the UK. Labor should be prepared for it. Thus far the media bias has backfired spectacularly. Long may it continue.

  31. It’s not an issue that moves votes in this country outside a few seats and particular types of left wing activists who froth at the mouth on the topic. Not that I would expect Albo to have said anything that can’t be passed off as student politics 35 years ago.

    Antisemitism was used effectively against Corbyn because at absolute best he was naive but frankly simply had way too many incidents of associating with Holocaust deniers and Hamas, and associating himself with anti semitic speakers and books and pictures etc (especially ones doing the old evil Jewish moneylenders secretly controlling nations routine) that you have to say that more than likely it kept happening because he didn’t see anything wrong with it. If he was a right wing politician with that many associations with fascists, Corbynistas wouldn’t have accepted it.

  32. The USA’s foreign policy in the Middle East includes a strand of unconditional support for the positions and policies of Israel. When the Coalition is in power, Australia’s foreign policy includes unconditional support for the policies and positions of the USA, which through a sort of transitive law means unconditional support for the policies and positions of Israel. Simple.

  33. On a personal note (I have family in Finland) I am delighted, and slightly relieved to read Finland is officially applying to join NATO. Both sides will be better off. I expect Sweden will soon follow.

  34. ‘Roaldan says:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 9:01 pm

    An anti-semitism allegation was inevitable given the people who advise the Liberals. Same playbook they used in the UK. Labor should be prepared for it. Thus far the media bias has backfired spectacularly. Long may it continue.’
    British Labour walked into that one big time. Australian Labor has done well in that space. The Greens ran into trouble on that front but by tipping out the main protagonist have since been on a reasonable course, IMO.

    From memory, the only bit of anti-semitism in this campaign specifically linked to a candidate has been Frydenberg calling out Deves references to Nazism and the Holocaust. Frydenberg raised it again this morning in response to a question by Speers. I thought at the time that Frydenberg was using the Holocaust reference as a sort of diversionary answer. Speeers was having none of it and persisted so that Frydenberg had to talk about the Deves’s trans rants and Morrison’s response to Deves. Frydenberg essentially abandoned his leader to it in his eventual response. I can’t remember his exact formulation.

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