The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:
• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).
• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).
• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).
• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).
Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.
The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).
Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.
Soc,
Turkey has stated it is not happy about Finland joining NATO.
differents was Corbin was a a old fationd left winger albanese over the last decadde has been to the right of shorten dropt the progresive tax franking negative gearing waterd down climate toughend china position etc his basicly like uk labor leader lib light small target shorten had way more left policies imagin if albanese spoke about big end of town they tried mean girls to damage wong as albanese key advisor then marles because shorten wants power now this markcsans read albo failed
Lots of Jewish people are cultural Jews and in no way supportive of Israel’s foreign policy. To be against some one due to their religion is wrong. But to oppose some one due to their political stands is often a statement of integrity. My criticism of the treasurer is exactly that he is a senior member of one of the worst Australian governments
Grimace @ #1109 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 7:59 pm
It may be a possible consideration for the odd seat in Sydney and Melbourne with people of Jewish background and may help the under siege Liberal encumbents harvest a few votes. Otherwise, teh vast majority of Australians don’t care that much.
I reckon a lot of Australians have sympathy for Palestinians.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/15/cold-blooded-killing-and-funeral-chaos-leave-west-bank-in-turmoil
former vick federal mp michael danby suports israile unconditionaly more exttremely then any liberal with acseption of paterson nsw shadow minister walt secord is another so is union oficial and want to be cuningham mp Misha zelinskey some on the right are more extreme on israilealbaneselead the campaign againstrhianons bds push maybi to save tebit but his been very strong on israile he is no corben he is not even left any more this is despiration to save wentworth
Boerwar – 858pm
Another trope (from Stalin’s USSR) is ‘rootless cosmopolitans’.
And our very own Tony Abbott used this expression in December 2018 Quadrant (reprinted in Australian Financial Review) in a piece praising Canada’s former PM Stephen Harper.
For Harper, “whose side you are on” is at the heart of it. Rootless, cosmopolitan intellectuals parading their moral superiority, or masters of high finance dressing up self-interest as economic correctness, are not for him.
And I just realised typing this that he got a second trope in!
Though as now Abbott travels a lot with no wedding ring (can’t be in those Liberal TV ads) maybe he could be seen as a ‘rootless cosmopolitan’ himself.
It’s all about housing and super until the election now. Housing prices will go up by how much you can pull out of your super now. The question now is are people smart enough not to take the bait. My guess is no. We are in for a GFC type recession in the next couple of years. The pragmatic politicians of our past are rolling in their graves if not laughing the shit out of their carcases at our stupidity. This is genuinely scary.
Israeli police certainly love a good funeral , bet that gained them some likes.
Why do Liberals have an almost religious zealotry to destroy superannuation for the poorer classes and at the same time condemn them for being a “burden” for not saving enough for their retirement?
IMO the main battle now is the Russians trying small-scale encirclements of Ukraine forces in the Donbas.
If I have it right these are Ukraine regulars who are well dug in along the pre-war lines. The correct strategies are: try to create a diversion that will stop Russia reinforcing the Donbas troops. The Ukraine has been successful at this around Kharkiv. The second one is to threaten the supply lines of the troops trying to advance along the perimeter of the encirclement. I don’t know how this is going.The third is to attack advanced units along the encirclement perimter. This seems to be happening around Izyium right now. I don’t know how well these counter attacks are going. The fourth is to slog it out in an attrition battle using artillery and tanks. The Russians currently have more longer range artillery and may be doing better than Ukraine in this strategy ATM. That balance might change once Ukraine starts receiving state of the art heavy artillery.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-15/ukraine-wages-counteroffensive-against-russian-forces-in-east/101068676
40% of the cost of a home versus a paltry $50k from your super. I know what I’d take.
Oh what a surprise
“There is no compelling case for change and The Sunday Mail believes it is in Australia’s best interest to re-elect the Coalition on Saturday.”
RR
Yep.
I’m skeptical this housing announcement lasts longer than 2 days; news cycles move on really fast.
Evening all,
Proposing that people steal from their own super is one thing.
This mob are proposing that first homebuyers should let retirees and property investors steal from their super!
I said it before, this is straight out intergenerational theft. Who holds the can in 20, 30 or 40 years time when that many more retirees are on the (part) pension? Who gets the benefit now?
Time to go to bed. Goodnight all. Sweet dreams. Only six sleeps to go until…
Holdenhillbilly @ #1147 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 8:24 pm
Presumable sampling after Slomo’s campaign speech today.
Political Nightwatchman
The Sunday Mail believes it is in Australia’s best interest to re-elect the Coalition on Saturday.”
————
I.e. Murdoch believes it is in his best interest to re-elect the Coalition on Saturday.
All the Murdoch Sunday papers editorialised for Morrison. It didn’t make headline news because I could have written that line last month or last year without any risk it would be wrong.
But they aren’t given a company line to follow, of course.
C’Mon Queensland we can do it.
“Opposition leader Anthony Albanese has vowed to work with Queensland, not against the state’s leaders as he claimed Scott Morrison did during the pandemic.
Fronting a Labor rally in Brisbane which included former prime minister Kevin Rudd, former treasurer Wayne Swan, and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, Albanese pushed voters to choose a government that “wants to work with Queensland, not against Queensland”.
“You can choose a Prime Minister who visits Queensland even when there’s no election on … who doesn’t bag Queenslanders as ‘cave dwellers’ when your Premier does the right thing to protect the health and safety of her state,” Albanese said in reference to Morrison’s criticisms of Palaszczuk during the height of the pandemic and disagreement over border closures.
Palaszczuk backed Albanese, saying he was a leader who “fronts up and does not go missing in action”.
Rudd opened the Labor rally throwing his support behind Albanese, calling the opposition leader the “real deal”, while referring to Morrison as “Scotty from marketing” when criticising the prime minister’s recent comments about changing himself if re-elected.
“What planet is this guy on? We all know a leopard never changes its spots,” Rudd said.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/choose-a-pm-who-visits-qld-even-when-there-s-no-election-20220515-p5ali9.html
Cat
“ Turkey has stated it is not happy about Finland joining NATO.”
They are just using their veto power as a bargaining chip. Their claimed reasons (that Sweden and Finland harbour many terrorist organisation!!) are bogus.
They no doubt want something in return. NATO leadership is already talking to Turkey.
Rakali @ #1217 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:22 pm
Who takes their instructions from newspapers and media outlets!?!
Three things about this ‘dirt’ on Albo:
1. There is, evidently, no depth the LNP will not sink to.
2. It’s their bad luck that this very week Israel has murdered a journalist and then assaulted a crowd at the resulting funeral. Probably not the best week to demand unconditional love for Israel and unconditional hatred of Palestinians.
3. It’s their own right flank who literally hate jews, of course. But it wouldn’t be an allegation from the right wing if it didn’t involve them accusing others of what they do themselves.
I predict it will cause barely a ripple.
Turkey are, understandably, just using the whole Ukraine war as a basis to play everyone off against everyone for their own benefit.
Socrates @ #1220 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:23 pm
Isn’t Norway, already a member of NATO, a country who contains the White Supremacist terrorist, Anders Behring Breivik!?!
Rakali @ #1208 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:17 pm
Because they’re Liberals. 😐
It’s fair to assume all of us here are very much into politics, but 80-90% of voters aren’t. I’d say for the majority of voters the only things they are considering are;
1- They hate ScoMo
2- The other guy doesn’t seem much, but is he as bad as ScoMo?
3- Will life be any different if they choose the ‘other guy’ over ScoMo.
The fact that Interest rates and petrol prices are already going up under the LNP, events that directly impact everyone’s day to day lives, means any concerns people have of changing leaders and parties just isn’t what it normally is. All the other issues just aren’t that big, or even present, in most voters minds.
Socrates at 9.23
“ Turkey has stated it is not happy about Finland joining NATO.”
Simple solution: expel Turkey. Then they can deal with Russia, their centuries-old enemy solo.
Just joking – although there are times when I’d love to be in a position to simply call ‘bullshit’ in international diplomacy!
Felix the Cassowary:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 7:58 pm
Yes. Though you perhaps might consider expressing your thoughts with more brevity, like say, Hemingway, who learned his trade in journalism. And old Clem (I can’t recall his surname) who was a staffer to Gough, said, in the most caring terms, “Mavis, you’re too verbose for journalism.” I was hurt, so I turned to law, where the fewer words, the better?
GlenO:
I meant no offence whatsoever if I’ve verballed you.
C@t
Isn’t Norway, already a member of NATO, a country who contains the White Supremacist terrorist, Anders Behring Breivik!?!
————
That is an absurd statement.
Anders Breivik is a convicted criminal in gaol in Norway.
goll
Speak for yourself! I live in South Australia and we never had convicts. In fact, when people were sent to prison by the SA courts in the convict era, they were sent to Victoria to serve out their sentences (and hopefully never to return) because Adelaide did not have a gaol.
They way people go on about it one would think every Australian was a descendent of convicts!
I am, my fore-mother being a 19 year old London girl who came in the Second Fleet on the women’s ship, The Lady Juliana, where Kevin Rudd’s fore-mother also was transported as a young female convict.
It is a fascinating story, of The Lady Juliana. If you do not know of it, give it a google. It will be worth it.
https://collection.sl.nsw.gov.au/record/74Vvb20a53xb
But hey, the convicts were sent here for political reasons, including cementing The Great South Land for Britain’s ongoing presence and influence in Oceania. They stole it, colonised it (brutally), and now their vision is complete. Convicts just happened to be the free expendable labour they needed to start reaching their goal.
Damn it, you lot! ou have got me rambling going off on another tangent again. But you are forgiven, I can talk to intelligent, insightful and interesting people on PB and at The Pub over the road. It beats most stuff about on social media! So I just type out (almost) whatever comes into my mind!
Breaking news from Sky that will surely break Albo.
100% confirmation that he was in fact the Zodiac killer!!
This will have the desired effect on the PHON vote, someone stuffed up!
For anyone wondering what Turkey’s problem with Sweden joining NATO is (they care less about Finland), it’s because Sweden has a large Kurdish refugee population, who escaped persecution by the Turks.
That’s who they’re calling “terrorists”.
That ON HTV from Hawke is brilliant. What a pack of meatheads.
Dog’s Brunch says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 9:36 pm
This will have the desired effect on the PHON vote, someone stuffed up!
中华人民共和国
Two tens. Probably Poorlines accounting skills to claim the Taxpayers dollars
Snappy Tom,
That was my first thought. Kick Turkey out and take Sweden and Finland. Two for the price of one! Was it Turkey who got let in by the skin of their teeth?
Of course, Turkey could be just posturing for Putin, and then it’s ‘We just had to back down because they bullied us into letting those two countries in. So sorry, Mr. Putin.’
Aaron newton @ #1174 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 8:40 pm
Such perspicacity! Astonishing.
And only you acknowledge it!
I’ve recalled Clem’s surname: Lloyd, a thorough gentleman. Do any bludgers recall him?
Puffytmd @ #1029 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:45 pm
Turkey has been the source of lots of arms used by Ukraine, I understand, including the drones that were so effective against Russian tanks earlier on.
Scott,
“most … dumbest”?
Sounds dumb, what does it mean?
Toolman just conceded defeat on channel 9.
The most dangerous time in any kingdom or dictatorship is when the old leader is close to karking it or being overthrown. It is rare for everyone to get out of those circumstances alive or in one piece. I do not see Putin’s Russia as any different. His time is almost up, give or take five years. He has already lived longer than the usual lifespan of a Russian male.
It is a tragedy that he is taking all those Ukrainian (and Russian) young people, kids, and babies with him. They will never get the lifespan Putin enjoyed, the selfish evil old bastard. I wish I believed in Hell, so a special ring of torment could be built just for him and the others like him.
Such a shock every Murdoch Sunday tabloid backed the reelection of the Morrison Government – actually I would really be shocked if any of their newspapers ever deviated from the company line. And their journalists claim nobody tells them what to write lol
I have never understood the obsession by parts of the Left with Palestine. They hate Israel but have been happy to give Iraq, Syria, the Soviet Union, North Korea, East Germany etc a conceded pass. Anyway, unless there is a video of Albanese saying the PLO or Hamas are legitimate organisations, there is nothing there.
Turkey also has the second largest military force within NATO. Why would they kick them out? Sure, the whole Democracy thing is not work out too well there but at least it is still functioning to some degree. Kicking them out would drive them into the hands of the Russians and be a massive own goal.
The Turkish position on Ukraine has been on the one hand to supply weapons to UAF but on the other to attempt to bring both Russia and Ukraine together to seek diplomatic solution if possible.
“I have never understood the obsession by parts of the Left with Palestine. They hate Israel but have been happy to give Iraq, Syria, the Soviet Union, North Korea, East Germany etc a conceded pass.”
I don’t think any part of that is reasonable.
Wanting to end apartheid and crimes against humanity, isn’t honestly described as an obsession, except by those condoning same.
The free pass thing is just projection / lies.
“Mavis says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 9:50 pm
I’ve recalled Clem’s surname: Lloyd, a thorough gentleman. Do any bludgers recall him?”
Yes indeed. He and Gordon Reid (later Governor of Western Australia) wrote a good book on the first two years of the Whitlam Government: https://www.politicsbooks.com.au/ccp0-prodshow/out-of-the-wilderness-clem-llyod-gordon-redi.html.
And I did a cooking class with him at the Canberra Tech back in the 1980s.