The Australian reports on an unusually timed release from Newspoll, although the field work period from the poll of Tuesday to Friday is only slightly different from the usual Wednesday to Saturday. The poll finds no change since last week on two-party preferred, with Labor retaining a lead of 54-46 from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% (up one) and United Australia Party 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 42% and down two on disapproval to 53%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 38% and up two to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 44-42 to 43-42. The sample for the poll was 1532.
Much prefer Katherine Murphy’s caution to the confidence and failure in 2019.
clem attlee @ #1145 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 9:37 pm
It would be the first time if it was true. 😆
Mavis says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 11:26 pm
Early days, but these policies don’t seem to be a game-changer, as they don’t assist younger prospective home buyers. Perhaps there’s more to come?
_____________________________
There must be more in it, i was expecting more $$$ for the buyers renovators to push up prices even more. Had to check the article wasnt from The Shovel as it is hard to tell anymore.
This is a strange policy, nice to see them looking after the next generation and propping up the inheritance values. So you sell up your big place, downsize to smaller and affordable pushing up the prices even more for entry level buyers, stick the proceeds all into super, still get the ‘welfare, not an entitlement’ pension and then pass it all on later to entitled relatives.
Can’t say it is a winner like that Albo scheme that actually helps people who need to buy a house but great for the older cohort with one already – but they vote LNP anyway.
I have been sleeping comfortably since the end of week 1. Despite Morrison’s resurrection of Deves in an attempt to put outer urban seats such as Parramatta in play, the trend is our friend.
Sleep well Bludgers.
Sell your home and buy something less expensive
And you can put the difference into superannuation
There are currently restrictions to how much you can put into superannuation including not being able to contribute after a certain age (and I can not further contribute because of age)
I was in a position (not from a home sale) to contribute $300,000-, being the maximum, into my wife’s account 2 years ago (then transitioning to Allocated Pension phase)
And I purchased Shares in banks to the value of $200,000- in her name, so Franking Credits plus dividends returning around 7% per annum currently
Then there is the $1.6 Million cap per account (so $3.2 Million for a couple) and this (if I was able to contribute in my name, which I was not) was the reason I put monies into my wife’s account, taking her to about $1.3 Million
My balance is near the $1.6 Million (now with a little more margin!! Markets!!!)
The question is, given the markers around superannuation, who does this policy benefit?
Because I have been able to do what I did with $500,000- I had sitting around in cash
My wife and I are fully self funded – apart from remitting Franking Credits in August each year, the government does not know we exist
We do not qualify for any benefit from government on both asset and income tests
So how many, contributing to superannuation will lose their Aged Pension entitlement?
And join my wife and me?
We (again, replicating the GFC) able to reduce our Allocated Pensions to 50% of the minimum, so some protection from falling markets
Given you can contribute $300,000- over a 3 year period currently, so $300,000- at any one time over that 3 years, plus the $1,6 Million cap, what retirees are we talking about?
And, from our perspective, if we did downsize we would purchase at a similar price so not to a standard 3 bedroom apartment
But something luxurious with all belts and whistles to enjoy
We are not into frugal
Also another bit of advice, Nate Sliver’s first rule of polling, probably one of the few good things he has these days: “When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polling, it almost always guesses in the *wrong* direction”. Good thing to keep in mind.
Hope that NDIS will be fixed. I help connect people to it in my job and it really needs to be fixed. Have had very unfair outcomes for people I support lately in the mental health space….
Sportsbet now $1.25 v $4.20.
/
Frednk @ #1150 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 9:39 pm
Caution is understandable given the last election, but ppl have caught on anf got to know Morrison like most honest journos knew him in 2019. He’s gone.
So freeing up more larger properties – getting more people into smaller and less expensive properties … so more competition at the lower levels and another **** *** to the superannuated?
Sounds like a Liberal policy to me.
The first words of the concession speech on 21 May will be…?
Patrick Bateman @9:16pm
Sandman @10:42pm
re: Promoting the idea that it’s a close race.
It’s not just trying to avoid looking dumb. It’s also that a close game is an uncertain one and good for ratings. Eyeballs are dollars.
rhwombat @9:16pm
Thanks for the Jethro Tull. A favourite.
nath @9:23
Reading past the typical NASA starshine I’d say that “soil” is an overly enthusiastic description of previously sterile lunar scaffolding. Soil is a complex living ecosystem, like a forest. I would expect even beach sand to be closer to soil than the irradiated sterile regolith brought back from the moon. And most seeds are reasonably self contained and only need water to trigger sprouting. But good on them for trying, however humble the science. Small steps and all that. Thanks for posting.
JayC @9:58pm
We did that the entire time we lived there, but as an income deduction not a straight tax deduction. It kept our mortgage manageable. It’s popular.
EDIT: “income deduction” not “tax deduction”
Quasar @ #1160 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 9:58 pm
We have faced the most difficult period since WW2… (ie. it’s not my fault)
Murphy is not the worst. She at least apologised for getting it wrong on Gillard’s misogyny speech when most of the sneering press gallery did their usual thing of pretending they never got anything wrong and never mentioning it again. She was hugely in the tank for Turnbull and hated Shorten and didn’t give him a fair run (I remember complaining to the Guardian about the constant faceless man jibes with every mention of Shorten and they actually mostly dissipated after that though the attitude didn’t) but most of the press gallery was like that. I don’t have any sense she wanted say Abbott or Morrison to be PM and she calls out stuff others stuff under the carpet but again like a lot of CPG journos seems to feel a need to bend over backwards to be fair to the right and give benefit of the doubt which obviously is not reciprocated by Murdoch journos dealing with Labor figures.
Clearly, Albanese’s birth certificate has been falsified. His middle name is Hussein.
Snappy Tom,
We could be so lucky. That name didn’t hurt Barry.
Lachlan at 11.50 Re ‘conventional wisdom’…
Here’s the thing: the new and different YouGov has been estimated to yield a Labor 2PP of 52.5% and a median 80 seats.
Newspoll has, for some time, oscillated between 53 and 54 2PP. So, mid to high 80s seats.
Bludgertrack is about 54.3 2PP – about 90 seats.
All of these are compiled by relatively hard-nosed stats gurus. No ‘conventional wisdom’ bending of numbers discernible.
The most likely result for the Coalition is set to be either bad, very bad or terrible.
BTW, big thanks to all Labor volunteers (noting esp. Pollbludgers) who are working for every vote!
https://nomoremorrison.com/
Griff @ #1154 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 11:45 pm
People keep saying things like this – sometimes even mentioning Lilley as one of the seats that it might be for…
What makes people think that the Deves stuff would play well in these seats, and why do they think the people who would buy into Deves’ nonsense wouldn’t have voted Liberal (or One Nation with Liberal above Labor/Greens) anyway? It feels like classism, like people who say it believe that “outer suburban” people can’t see through what the Liberals are doing, the way that other people can, or something.
Nice to have a day without any attention to that vacuous Deves
This is fun reading for Labor supporters. If the strategy is to “fight the teals” and at least “save Josh”, then the next LOTO has already been picked. Mr Frydenberg is the future of the LNP and Mr Morrison is already the past.
I think the LNP is not going to do well anywhere but it’ll be especially poor in inner city seats with or without teal candidates.
Snappy Tomsays:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 12:19 am
Lachlan at 11.50 Re ‘conventional wisdom’…
Here’s the thing: the new and different YouGov has been estimated to yield a Labor 2PP of 52.5% and a median 80 seats.
Newspoll has, for some time, oscillated between 53 and 54 2PP. So, mid to high 80s seats.
Bludgertrack is about 54.3 2PP – about 90 seats.
All of these are compiled by relatively hard-nosed stats gurus. No ‘conventional wisdom’ bending of numbers discernible.
The most likely result for the Coalition is set to be either bad, very bad or terrible.
BTW, big thanks to all Labor volunteers (noting esp. Pollbludgers) who are working for every vote!
—————-
Yeah, sorry, I was more referring to the people who seem to be thinking the polls will just tighten again because that’s what’s always happened, which I personally see more of than people overestimating for Labor.
“Using childish name-calling doesn’t enhance your argument.”
How is referring to her as a pro Tory hack childish? You are clearly looking for an argument. Keep it up and you will get one.
New thread.
Labor hopeful in Lingiari. Pre poll exit polls from Nt News match Labor’s tracking polling in urban areas ( Alice Springs, Katherine, Tennant Creek, Nhulunbuy) 37 % all. If CLP don’t crush Labor there the bush ( the vast rest of Lingiari ) will roll over the conservatives by a generally larger margin than even Snowdon has won in the past. . Early ALP reports from the communities suggest Scrymgour (ALP) will beat the CLP’S Ryan in the largely Indigenous booths remaining (about 120) Labor report Averaging 78 % across the 100 mobile polls already conducted across the wide brown land. CLP struggling to put teams on the field Suggesting their instability and division is in play. Ex CLP Senator Dr Sam MacMahon running for Lib Dems preferencing Labor. You won’t see Morrison or Joyce here again. It’s done the Territory remains red. Soloman safe as houses!
Felix the Cassowary:
“The Victorian Liberals have been able to make one term of government in recent years, the Queensland right have been able to make two terms of government in a longer period.”
Not even two terms in Queensland: the Borbidge Coalition government came into power midterm.
The Goss Labor government was re-elected narrowly in 1995. However, Labor won Mundingburra by just 16 votes, and a court-ordered re-election delivered a Labor loss. Independent MP Liz Cunningham then switched her support to the Coalition and the government changed mid-term.
Placing Liberals Last.
I am enjoying catching up, in the early morning, the posts and comments from yesterday.
However, despite how odious and stupid the views and policies of PHON, UAP et el may be it is the Coalition who will form the alternative government.
I realize that it may be for broader strategic reasons that the ALP suggest their preferred order of candidates, but I’ll always put the Liberal last.
LongMemory82 @ #1149 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 11:37 pm
THIS is the final week bombshell for Albanese & Labor!?!
Funny how they never mentioned it when everyone else in parliament caught up in the S44 net was being dragged in.
The Cleaner,
Good to hear. I was worried about the NT, seeing the effort the Coalition had put into it.
The wally, has been found!
But he has been functioning as Education Minister, backing the Deves position into the Chinese community:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stood-aside-minister-alan-tudge-tight-lipped-as-he-attends-citizenship-ceremony-20220514-p5alce.html
The man doesn’t know the meaning of ‘values’
THE PORK IS RIGHT – Australia’s favourite rort guessing game show is back!
https://youtu.be/ywyD6acrYTc
The Silver Bodgie says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 9:24 am
THE PORK IS RIGHT – Australia’s favourite rort guessing game show is back!
https://youtu.be/ywyD6acrYTc
Put the headphones on and listened, it finished and Frydenberg is still going on.
Oh oh, the narrowing has begun.
In a major betting plunge on Sportsbet the coalition have firmed markedly from $4.20 to $4.15 whilst labour has blown out from $1.25 to $1.26.
Be afraid, be very afraid.