The Australian reports on an unusually timed release from Newspoll, although the field work period from the poll of Tuesday to Friday is only slightly different from the usual Wednesday to Saturday. The poll finds no change since last week on two-party preferred, with Labor retaining a lead of 54-46 from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% (up one) and United Australia Party 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 42% and down two on disapproval to 53%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 38% and up two to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 44-42 to 43-42. The sample for the poll was 1532.
Makes sense for Newspoll to release a poll tonight, given they’re going to be releasing one next Friday night.
A Friday night newspoll. A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one
Newspoll: Albo takes knock, ALP still ahead (Oz)
Not narrowing, expanding.
If GhostWhoVotes doesn’t tweet it first then did it really happen?
Evan at 9.43 [So impressed with myself, I’m reposting this from previous thread…]
Bad poll? This Newspoll is a DISASTER for the LNP!
Note two things: Hawke’s 1983 2PP was 53.23 – 54 would be historic!
Also, the revised (since 2019) Newspoll has been close in three state elections (Qld WA SA) but slightly underestimated Labor each time!
If the actual federal 2PP is 54 or better, there will not be sufficient alcoholic beverages in the world for the needs of the Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club!
So nothing but rounding errors in Newspoll. Spinners gotta spin, but the concrete boots have set for Scomo 2.0 in the polls.
Now just to test how well the polls have mapped against the actual votes.
Evan says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:46 pm
UpNorth: have we yet agreed on an official title for the collective otherwise known as the Poll Bludger Labor pissheads club?
And more members, the merrier.
中华人共和国
The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club
Executive decision.
BTW will take 54-46 next Saturday
#Newspoll TPP L/NP 46 (0) ALP 54 (0)
Primary L/NP 35 (0) ALP 38 (-1) GRN 11 (0) ON 6 (+1) UAP 3 (-1) OTH 7
Only surprise is the ON RWNJs on 6 percent, Mr Palmer and his 5 lovely daughters is on a well deserved 3. Note, no change for the LNP primary again.
Stick a fork in ScottyFromMarketing, he’s done.
If it’s 54-46 next Saturday, that would be the worst federal result for the coalition since the formation of the Liberal Party.
The campaign has essentially changed absolutely nothing in the electorate.
Well done, LNP.
Awww how nice, Rupert went out and got a birthday present for SfM ,a NewsPoll . What a shame this was the best icing they could manage to stick on the cake.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-fumbling-albanese-takes-a-knock-but-labor-still-ahead/news-story/d73e7f273507f17b30a4c3206739d12f
It will help ease the pain of the news.com.au headline a little earlier.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/inside-focus-group-slamming-arrogant-prime-minister-scott-morrison/news-story/7e39c4187d3ae8a107d4418ec3284a49
So Newspoll during the campaign have been (for Labor) 53/53/54/54…… I am sensing a trend with 8 days to go.
Sceptic, don’t read too much into 1% changes, just as likely to be statistical variation then a true change
UpNorth/Snappy Tom – 54/46 on May 21 will have me going hard on the beers, true pisshead style .
So Murdoch will keep polishing that turd for Scotty boy til the bitter end, quite pathetic really.
Primary L/NP 35 (0) ALP 38 (-1) GRN 11 (0) ON 6 (+1) UAP 3 (-1) OTH 7
Looking at the numbers, I get Labor 2PP ~ 0+38+9+2+1+3.5 = 53.5.
Looking good.
Morrison in full cornered-rat mode. The coming week’s campaign will be ugly.
Pedant says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:55 pm
If it’s 54-46 next Saturday, that would be the worst federal result for the coalition since the formation of the Liberal Party.
中华人共和国
It may well prove to be high point as they eat each other up.
I’m thinking Antony Greens toy calculator will say 90 + seats to labor / tea
This is my exit poll prediction:
TPP:
Labor-54.5
LNP-45.5
PV:
Labor-39
LNP-35
Greens-11
One Nation-5
UAP-3
Other-7
Well, certainly wasn’t expecting a Newspoll tonight. 54-46 one week out from an election is just fine with me. One week to seal the deal.
ScoMo’s chicken may have been raw, but his goose is certainly cooked.
Lars from the previous thread
Those complaining about the actions of the DUP and TUV have very, very short memories. Sinn Fein collapsed the last assembly for three years, and in the end, said they would not go back until they got a promise of an Irish language act. I don’t think the DUP are going to have much sympathy for the squealing happening at the moment, especially when it comes from people and parties who did not similarly squeal when Sinn Fein did the same thing and would not go back in for three years.
I predict the worst acceptance speech in our nation’s history by SfM. And the most fun too. To be watched over and over again.
Steve: 53.5.
If it was 53.5, newspoll would have rounded it to 53.5. That they posted 54 means that it is 53.8-54.4.
Worst losers speech – if he even turns up.
Hmm, still I won’t forget how incorrect 2019 was. Even if methodologies have changed and a lack of herding. Is ALP PV 3% too high again? Will the shy Tories awaken once again? A colleague at work decided to be a shy Green and said she support Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, fearing too bad a result for Joshy would push a few softies back to vote for him!
I referenced on the prior thread The Guardian article quoting who it quotes on the Maritime matter – including the Department response, a response which was passed thru the Minister’s Office
The description the Pentecostal with the glass jaw applied to Albanese should now be applied to Dutton, who should be stood down
These inept individuals are further trashing Australia’s International reputation
Australia under this watch is a laughing stock globally
And we are paying a price, including economically and not only with our largest trading partner
And if you want something to seal the deal for Labor, this is it
The only way to repair the reputation of Australia is to change the government
The rest of the World is watching
Bronwyn Bishop with a straight face: “most young women in their 20s and 30s are very scared of a Labor government, with their main concerns being taxes and the boat people”.
Verbatim.
From the previous thread:
C@t
C@t
Hopefully we can get together for celebration post election. Whatever happens we should have champagne. As Napoleon said “In victory you deserve it, in defeat you need it.”
The Sgr A* (for those of us who know it well enough to call it by its nickname) blackhole accretion disk images are very good. I will (eventually) check to see how my papers estimating the mass of the black hole at the centre of Sgr A* with lower resolution data compare to EHT.
I am most impressed by the three “hotspots” in the disk image. Is this where the accretion disk is gobbling up stars or molecular gas? That would be fascinating – I will leave the observing proposals to a new generation. But imaging with VLBI at 1-mm is incredibly difficult, and so imaging reliability is relatively low. That being said, me and OH have talked about this result – we both have skin in the game – and it has been quite rare, in observational astrophysics, that a published result has been overturned.
So, what are those hotspots in the “heat” colormap?
[Edit] With big thanks to Saint KayJay that the image below actually worked!!!
@Benno – Shy tories aren’t real thing in Australia – there was just a systemic failure of polls.
Newspoll tonight. 54-46 one week out from an election is just fine with me. One week to seal the deal.
I would prefer 60-40 but I’ll take it
(With a large qualifier of “if all goes as expected”): I think whatever crude marketing instincts Morrison possesses will kick in to ensure he gives a moderately gracious concession speech.
Am quite undecided as to whether he will announce his decision to stand down as party leader on the night itself.
And will Morrison hang around in Parliament? I very much doubt it.
Douglas and Milko,
Jaeger helpfully put this article up this morning:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-05-12/black-hole-sagittariusa-milky-way-image-event-horizon-telescope/101041816
You probably know everyone in it. 😀
54-46 and Albanese still hasn’t used his secret weapon, Jodie, that much. 🙂
9.55pm
Full-time: Broncos 38 Sea Eagles 0
That’s it… all over for Scottie Qlders in ecstatic mood for a week at least, they’ll celebrate hard & vote for Albo.
Well I definitely want to join the pissheads club.
Not sure how I found myself in the position, but I need to find booth captains for three polling places.
I will take one, an old hand will take another, but I fear I will need to also baby-sit the ” booth captain” of the third.
By the time I wrap up booth duties and scrutineer, the result will be known, and I will go home to with celebrate or drown my sorrows.
Knowing I can come home to a lovely PB “Don’s Party” makes it easier for me to miss the action, and Antony Green’s wonderful election commentary.
I note Morrisson and Dutton are getting desperate with warnings of the China military boat close to WA. Looks like they looking for another Tampa or Children overboard scenario? Would they ? Could they?
Morrison in full cornered-rat mode. The coming week’s campaign will be ugly.
With the way people feel about him, and his promise today to be a kinder, gentler Scotty, if he goes in hard next week it will rebound on him and simply reinforce people’s opinions about him.
But
Albanese has improved on the PPM
By a point, to lag by only a point
So what does that say, given the headline appended by Murdoch?
There’s still another week for Morrison to push it out to 55-45. “I can change” should knock another 1% off the lib 2PP on its own. It’s like he’s campaigning to turn the Liberal party into a rump of bigots and nutters. Still there are 46% prepared to vote for them( over the past few days anyway).
Sceptic @ #36 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 10:18 pm
Adam Reynolds should still be at Souths. 😡
The Fairfax9 papers spoke to faith leaders about Katherine Deves’ remarks. Some of them hadn’t even heard of her, let alone her controversial statements:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-are-faith-communities-responding-to-katherine-deves-20220513-p5al3i.html
No race between two horses is decided until it is run, and this election is no exception.
However, if I have this correct……
The LNP PV is stuck on 35% and at its lowest level for a long time….
In the preferred metric of the conservative rags, that of PPM, Albanese has actually caught up a point and thus is almost on level pegging now with Morrison after trailing him for nearly three years by a much larger margin…gaffes/mistakes/misunderstandings/uncertainties and all dug up by the media hacks on behalf of Albanese…
A 1% PV has slipped off Labor to somewhere, but is still at 38 to 35 – a bigger margin in this poll than some of the others.
The TPP is on 54-46, still, having been on 53-57 in prior polls.
And the spin is that Albanese has lost momentum/stalled or whatever……..?
I am sure the LNP is truly hoping the “polls are wrong again” but if the LNP were leading by this margin the Death Watch for Labor would be well and truly be flogged by the media friends of the LNP.
the liberal party adds are the worst i have ever sceen the latist lord of the rings paridy is laughable becaus its so cartonish any mesage is lostdoes aandre4w hurst secretly want labor to winn worst adds ever labors succes could be because of tim gartrell albo chief off staff being rudds campaign director however has litel policy expirence so not shore how he would go as chief of staff but libs prepairing ground work when they lose badly they will not acsept the result and say china stole it
Sceptic @ #36 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 10:18 pm
We just went from being thrashed to thrashing other teams.
I agree C@t, reading the article is gave me a sense that for all the crap about Deves, the interviewees had FA knowledge of her but seemed to generally like her ideas. Not a well targeted campaign methinks
One ponders what bounce ( if any) the campaign launch will bring for the PM.
Considering this week he has resorted to revisiting key seats with nothing but the re announcement of previously released packages.
What could he have up his sleeve ?? I suspect nothing because he has put so much pork on the table already you’d assume there’d be nothing left to throw around.
Only thing Labor needs to be wary of is too much matching LNP commitments dollar for dollar. A cynic might suggest that the LNP Is being strategic by setting up Albo up- knowing full well they are on the way out they could be making ridiculous promises in the hope Labor matches so they end up with problems down the track trying to meet these promises
I agree about the Liberal Party ads, aaron newton. My son hates the hole in the bucket ad because the voice of the lady singing the song drives him crazy!
alias
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 10:14 pm
And will Morrison hang around in Parliament? I very much doubt it.
If Morrison lost and leaves Parliament, who in the private sector would want to hire him, he’s a liability. If a company did hire him, you would question that companies integrity or lack of it.