The Australian reports on an unusually timed release from Newspoll, although the field work period from the poll of Tuesday to Friday is only slightly different from the usual Wednesday to Saturday. The poll finds no change since last week on two-party preferred, with Labor retaining a lead of 54-46 from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% (up one) and United Australia Party 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 42% and down two on disapproval to 53%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 38% and up two to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 44-42 to 43-42. The sample for the poll was 1532.
So, off to bed now. Helping to set up tomorrow morning and then hand out for a couple of hours. 🙂
Sportsbet now offering odds for forming govt at:
Labor: $1.28
LNP: $4.00
1996 election result: the Coalition won 94 seats, Labor won 49 seats.
This time, I doubt Labor will get anywhere near 90 seats, but stranger things have happened.
Good point @leftieBrawler
Time to start highlighting the recklessness of the LNP spending and promises!
C@tmomma says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 10:34 pm
I agree about the Liberal Party ads, aaron newton. My son hates the hole in the bucket ad because the voice of the lady singing the song drives him crazy!
You should get your son to watch the LNP Gollum ad, it’s crazy
The week ahead, I think, will be very karma filled for Morrison with all of his detractors chiming in. Other than with his dig whistled diehards, he is universally despised.
If the polls are correct I think the only thing separating from Labor from a hung/minority parliament to a 96’ style belting and everything in between are the final destination of all these preferences and where they end up.
With the majors having fairly low primary numbers due to the popularity of the greens, teals, inds and fringe cults I suspect the gravity of Albo’s victory will be decided be these “loose unit” preferences lol
The one small thing that worries me, just a little, about the Newspoll results, is how steady the numbers have been. The 75% Margin of Error, based on this most recent Newspoll (1532 respondents), is about 1.5%. That means that roughly one in four of the polls should be outside of 1.5% of the true value.
The last ten Newspolls have been between 53% and 55% for Labor, and have varied smoothly. There should be more variation than this.
Herding between pollsters is a major concern, if it happens, and it doesn’t seem to be happening. But Newspoll is usually taken to be the gold standard, and I wonder if something is hiding the variance, such as an implicit bias of some sort.
Of course, we can hope that the implicit bias is hiding a stronger Labor vote… but it’s hard to say.
Labor for Medicare
“Patients will be given better access to GPs and doctors offered grants of up to $50,000 to improve their practices under an almost $1 billion plan by Labor to “strengthen” Medicare.
Under the plan, an Albanese government would set up a Medicare taskforce made up of peak medical bodies such the Australian Medical Association (AMA) and the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP) to map out the priority programs needed to improve access.
A fund worth $750m over four years would also be established to deliver better access and care to patients with Labor citing “improved patient access” to GPs, including after-hours help, and better management of complex and chronic conditions.
The fund would kick in from financial year 2023, with the packet costed into the forward estimates.
Labor would also and out grants, worth $25,000 for small GP practices and $50,000 for larger clinics, to help GPs upgrade IT systems including for telehealth, upskill staff, purchase new equipment, upgrade ventilation and infection control and “make other improvements to ensure GPs can see more patients”.
The grants program will cost $220m.
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, set to campaign in the Northern Territory on Saturday where the health system is crushingly underfunded, said people were telling him it was “getting harder and harder to see a doctor”.
“General practice is the cornerstone of the Australian health system,” Mr Albanese said.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/election-2022-labors-1b-plan-to-beef-up-medicare/news-story/ae5504b6399c2b0d11e7cabc49ade08f?amp
Even his own mob know he is gone…..
“In a final week pitch to win over undecided voters, Scott Morrison has vowed Australians will see a new side of him to the “bulldozer” he has been during the pandemic.
The Prime Minister claimed Australia had needed “strength and resilience” to get through the past few years, but acknowledged his approach would have to change now the country was “moving into a different time”.
“I admit that hasn’t enabled Australians to see a lot of other gears in the way I work,” Mr Morrison said.
“As we go into this next period, on the other side of this election, I know there are things that are going to have to change in the way I do things.”
Several Liberal sources said Mr Morrison’s shift was “welcome,” with one MP telling News Corp Mr Morrison should have said as much “months ago”.
Another senior Liberal source said the pivot, which some have described as Mr Morrison’s “real Julia” moment when former prime minister Julia Gillard asked voters to give her a chance to be herself, was still a “gamble” for the Coalition.”
““It depends if people see it as a sign of humility … or think it’s desperation,” the source said.
The Liberal said voters needed to have “positive reasons” to vote for the government to “overcome the fact that some are disgruntled with Scott in different ways”.
“At the outset of the campaign we laid our plan … and it’s the right thing from him to reinforce again now we know it’s been a tough few years and haven’t been able to get everything right … to tip the undecided voters our way,” the source said.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/next-time-ill-be-different-pm-scott-morrisons-plea-to-voters-as-election-nears/news-story/1d0ef08792426a8602e58a712ba79b0b?amp
Useless Australian Political Trivia #392: Bronwyn Bishop was the only speaker of the House of Reps to have been a Senator.
Useless Australian Political Trivia #393: William Watt was the only speaker of the House of Reps to have been a State Premier. He also never flew in a helicopter.
Evan says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 10:36 pm
1996 election result: the Coalition won 94 seats, Labor won 49 seats.
This time, I doubt Labor will get anywhere near 90 seats, but stranger things have happened.
——————————-
The Liberals hold a lot of seats by around 4 to 8 and if they start falling then 80 might become 90 so the ALP would need every seat up to and including Banks.
This is such good news for the True Believers. Short of a massive polling failure, we’re on track for a solid win next weekend, comrades.
Just keep the faith.
Australia’s border law enforcement agency would be broken up under a proposal by the Greens to abolish Border Force.
The bold plan would see the agency’s responsibilities handed to a re-established customs agency, police and the military.
Unveiling his suite of immigration policies standing outside a pre-poll booth in Melbourne on Thursday, leader Adam Bandt and spokesman Nick McKim said the party wanted to push for a “more compassionate framework for refugees”.
Additionally, the Greens would capitalise on a hung parliament to push to end offshore detention and boat turnbacks.
It would also establish a royal commission into offshore detention.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/federal-election/greens-to-push-to-abolish-border-force-should-it-win-balance-of-power-on-may-21/news-story/8ebb674096749a407342b5c05e9bbae7
Mexicanbeemer @ #62 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 10:47 pm
I’m hoping for an ALP majority and don’t care if it’s only by one or two seats because iIf there is a swing to the ALP then those seats in that range become easier to win the next time.
It feels like everyone’s just looking at their watches now counting down the days until the LNP are sentenced to opposition. Scomo’s “I’m going to be a changed man” spiel is a sign of the desperation.
If we see 54-46 or above – I think I’ll go a little higher on the shelf…
Upnorth:
Surely you know Courier Mail is fake news, the real truth is here:
– https://www.theshovel.com.au/2022/05/13/i-cant-stand-scott-morrison-either/
LNP out to $4 on Sports bet as others mentioned!
I wonder what they’ve just found out ?
Imagine the torturous feeling of dejavu if they decided to take out the front page of all the daily papers the day before again to announce they are paying out Labor early lol
I don’t think the Libs are going to save the furniture.
All Scomo can do is grab the bric-a-brac and make a run for it!
https://chaser.com.au/national/scott-morrisons-i-stopped-the-boats-trophy-revoked-2/
The Coalition will win this election. Labor is unpopular in their traditional heartlands like the Hunter region. The Coalition will gain Paterson and Hunter and perhaps even Shortland, this will cancel out any Labor gains elsewhere.
Bree,
I know you’re not meant to be taken seriously, but in case you haven’t noticed, the Libs are pretty unpopular in their traditional heartland.
E. G. Theodore says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 10:53 pm
Upnorth:
Even his own mob know he is gone…..
Surely you know Courier Mail is fake news, the real truth is here:
– https://www.theshovel.com.au/2022/05/13/i-cant-stand-scott-morrison-either/
“I can’t stand Scott Morrison either,” Scott Morrison says in new pitch to voters
中华人民共和国
Red Ted as you know the Courier Mail and it’s predecessors have been “shite” for over 120 years!!
The Shovel is much more believable!
I’d be happy with a Royal Commission into offshore detention, in fact our whole asylum seeker policy since 2001. It is wrong in principle – detain people who have committed no crime indefinitely without a trial or much in the way of process and put them beyond the protection of Australian law.
What a raging indictment on Morrison that even with wall to wall cheering from the nation’s media he can muster but 35% of the primary vote.
DB Cooper says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 10:57 pm
Bree,
I know you’re not meant to be taken seriously, but in case you haven’t noticed, the Libs are pretty unpopular in their traditional heartland.
中华人民共和国
Bree and Wayne we think are William having a good laugh at us. Take no notice cobbers.
From the previous thread, @ratsak and others:
“ “ I would like to see the voters of Dixon send him on his way. Many of us thought once that Abbott was unelectable too, and under different circumstances he should have been, but he became Prime Minister. Dutton would be far, far worse than Abbott imho. I want him out of Australian politics.
This x eleventh billion”
______
Plus 1.
Australia desperately needs to reset its relations with China, the PI and SE Asia. Dutton – as leader of the opposition, or even a senior shadow minister, would continue to amp up the language – backed by at least 9/Faix and most or Mordor. Albanese and Wong need some breathing space for that reset.
Late Riser, I wasn’t expecting this, check back for my video/screenshots amongst the posts around 6 or 7 am, hopefully.
As for the poll result, I really struggle to believe it is so. It’s not that I think the polls are wrong because they’ve been wrong before, it’s because the number is just so big and the presentation of the campaign in the media is just so close. I remember 2018 of course, when the Labor party was being attacked by Murdoch like they would cause the apocalypse, and the polls said 54/46 and the result was 58/42ish. So I know the result could be even worse than this (for the government).
As for the prime minister’s future, I guess he’s going to find a future in London if Johnson manages to calm things down or on a megachurch circuit in the US. Recent prime ministers seem to have rather taken to leaving the country when they’ve finished up, Gillard being the main exception. Leaving the country is probably the best chance for recovery for the Liberal party. If he stays around, he will probably be agitating or be seen to be agitating for the continuation of his preferred membership, which will keep the Liberal party associated it with him and make it harder to reform. If he’s gone, him and his allies will have less credibility.
Meanwhile…
”The Coalition appears to be losing the debate on national security because of external events and its own overreach, a remarkable development given it was seen as one of its biggest strengths heading into the election.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-coalition-is-now-losing-the-debate-on-national-security-and-china-20220513-p5al62.html
“Bree!”
Hello Alex, hope the fishnets are not too uncomfortable for you tonight.
So, it’s 8 days from the election and Newspoll has delivered a 54% 2PP for the ALP.
First, 54% is beyond the margin of error.
Second, in 2013, at this point in the campaign, Newspoll delivered a 2PP for the ALP of 51%, which is within the margin of error.
Conclusion, this is definitely nothing like 2019 and if anybody should feel very nervous it’s Scomo and his mates in the Coalition.
Now, if the ALP does win with a 54%, that would mean a swing of about 5.5%. If the swing is uniform, then the ALP is expected to win about 17 seats (5 in VIC, 2 in WA, 3 in NSW, 4 in QLD, 2 in TAS, and 1 in SA)…. I don’t expect that kind of win for the ALP in VIC, as 5 seats looks excessive, but the Coalition could lose close to 5 seats in VIC courtesy of the combined ALP and Teals. In any event, the trashing of Scomo and the Coalition is pretty much guaranteed and it’s going to be substantial.
If I was a moderate Christian, as I believe most Australian Christians are, I would be incensed that newspapers keep going to only the extremists as if they are the only ones who get to represent Christian views in Australia.
They were just as ghastly about who they chose to represent Muslims of course.
The worst sort of journalism, trying to drive division and promote the extremes.
Also from the previous thread, to underline Morrison’s trans bullying.
“If things that hurt people help get you more power, people will continue to do them”
Remember Peter Buttigieg? Here’s Pete on the current state of politics in the USA, and have they reached the highwater mark in “freedom’ and “rights”.
https://youtu.be/5ysZYwjuFes
We just went from being thrashed to thrashing other teams.
=================
May I start a rumour (lie) that a former Team Sky cycling doctor has started working for them?
Re the Chinese spy ship.
Somebody on twitter said it had been docked at fleet base west or somewhere nearby to have repairs done to a helicopter.
I haven’t yet been able to find out if this is true.
Given how bad the campaign has gone for the LNP this week I would have thought the Newspoll 2PP figures would have been 1 pt better for the ALP. But because Newspoll don’t publish results down to 0.5% divisions, it’s understandable that the 2pp has remained on 54/46 due to rounding and possibly MOE.
My gut feeling is that the actual state of the electorate right now is more than 54/46 and that this figure will continue to blow out for the ALP.
Because I have a deep distrust of Murdoch, I’m also wondering if the pollsters here fudged the weightings to achieve a 54/46 result to not rain on Scotty’s launch parade this weekend.
Anyway, after I made my “there will be no narrowing and I will not put up with nervous nellies” speech on here earlier this week, I put my money where my mouth was and duly unloaded on Labor in the betting markets.
For those that are interested, apart from having a good piece of the the $1.38 on offer for the ALP, I also invested in the ALP on the following seats:
Macquarie
Parramatta
Robertson
Lingiari
Boothby
Bass
Braddon
Lyons
Casey
Corangamite
Dunkley
McEwen
Hasluck
Pearce
The technique used to select bet options and stakes was:
1. Adopt a weighted hybrid model made up of own polling model with the AEF’s model to calculate a probability for all seats that I judge are winnable for the ALP.
2. Convert this probability to decimal odds (rated price).
3. Select bet options for those seats where; odds > (rated price * 1.1)
4. Apply a fractional Kelly criterion (fraction = 0.1) to determine bet amount.
Arky @ #80 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 11:11 pm
Having been on Anglican diocesan boards, I can tell you the old churches feel the same way.
Also from the previous thread, as I try and work out Mavis saying exact opposites. I’ve got little tolerance for putting Albanese down, and less for some drover’s dog reference. He is one week away from being one of the great Aussie battler success stories, off his own back. More power to him.
You’ve lost me; I got know idea what your point is. It started out Albanese would win on the back on the cost of living with nothing to do with Morrison(even mentioned the ‘drover’s dog’ put down) and was no Whitlam or Hawke, and now you’re saying Albanese may be the greater of the three having overcome Morrison.
Your ref Mavis 7:52pm : The principal issue of the election is the cost of living, not Morrison’s character – the lack thereof. Most could live with this provided they could feed their family. Albanese is fortunate that almost all the planets have aligned whereas this was not the case in 2019. I hesitate to refer to Hayden’s “drover’s dog” but it’s almost on par, absent Hawke’s charismatic authority.
Just sayin’.
Wednesday before polling day is dirt day.
A little over a week to go. I am not longer sleeping comfortably.
I’m excited!
Bludgers, 2019 was traumatic for some. But this is not 2019. Morrison is a known quantity. Albanese is not Shorten. And we have a new polling methodology on the block that aligns reasonably well with the classical approach.
Smile and enjoy the ride. FICAC!
Like a cow that breaks free and then learns to live in the woods, The teals will never enter the LNP fold. Hold that thought for a moment.
An ALP win of 85, + 5 Teals, Katter, Wilkie, Bandt and then the maybe something like ~55-60 LNP. I’m being rough here but looking at Antony Greens calculator. Things don’t look good for the coalition.
It’ll take the LNP 1 election to wipe out a teal or two and take back say 5 ALP seats. And then those teals, if they enter the fold in the LNP. They’ll be hated, because indies are loved. Especially in electorates that have no problems (Like Clarke) and all the teal electorates.
So then that means the LNP will need to broaden its base, appeal to women, set quotas, open up branch primaries, and figure out what version of Australia it wants to represent.
It could be a dark winter for the LNP.
Given the change of government and the Pentecostal with the glass jaw resigning as a consequence, do the Liberal Party endorse Michael Towke to stand in the electorate the Pentecostal with the glass jaw has resigned from?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-promises-750-million-to-for-medicare-coalition-to-invest-in-sport-20220513-p5al7l.html
Labor playing to its strengths
I have been busy all day so apologies if this is old news. I just came across this reminder of just duplicitous Morrison and Dutton are;
Heads up about Duttons desperate ”Children overboard” style scare campaign about a chinese vessel off WA’ s coast. Dutton is saying that it is an unprecedented voyoge south as far as Exmouth. That is BS! In 2019 Three Chinese warships travelled through the Bight and Bass strait and apparantly with Scomo’s approval berthed in Sydney Harbour, all with no knowledge of the Australian public until sighted in Sydney harbour. Duttons excuse at the time was that they stopped over on their way back from operations in the middle east and was a sign of Australia’s strong relationship with China. Since when was the south coast of Australia on the route from the Middle East to China?
Snappy Tom @ #6 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:51 pm
You underestimate the range of alcoholic beverages available for such an outcome available to the Pissbludgers Old Boyz Club.
Pedant @ #11 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:55 pm
I think you mean accretion.
Granny Anny,
We have A LOT of over the horizon radar. Such as JORN.
We know what is to our north most of the time.
Dutton is being a mega Chad saying the Chinease are sneaking up on us.
with 17% of voters having already voted or with their forms ready for a friday night filling out, they LNP are doomed. # I hope!
Xenu @ #15 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:56 pm
Yep. But less than 5% probability that Labor 2PP is less than the LNP 2pp.
Evan @ #16 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:57 pm
Wait until election day. If the result is plain as day then Rupert’s troll will say that, more in sorrow than in anger that people should vote Albo in. Then he can assume the role of (fraudulent) kingmaker.
SA Bludger @ #29 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 10:09 pm
I think they’d be more scared of Bronwyn’s hair than of the nominated issues.