Federal election minus eight days

The latest on the ongoing Katherine Deves controversy, Wednesday night’s leaders debate, prospects for the Senate and more.

Ahead of the last weekend before the big day, and with nearly a million pre-polls plus over 750,000 returned postals already in the bag:

• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Nika Savva writes that Liberal internal polling shows the primary votes of the six members under challenge from teal independents have “plunged to between the mid-30s and the low 40s”, and that there is “an ever-expanding list of prime Liberal real estate tilting to Labor including Bennelong, Reid, Chisholm, Higgins, Brisbane, Ryan and Leichhardt”. Savva further accuses Scott Morrison of sacrificing these seats in a bid to “harvest votes in the regions and outer suburbs” by reviving the controversy over Warringah candidate Katherine Deves’ comments on transgender issues. According to a “well-connected Liberal” quoted by Savva, the interview on Monday in which Deves recanted her earlier apology was “set up deliberately to resuscitate the issue”.

• I had a piece in Crikey on Wednesday looking at prospects for the Senate race, and in particular for the chamber’s overall balance to tip over in favour of the left. Since the “right”, i.e. the Coalition plus One Nation, won four seats in Queensland in 2019, such an outcome would require four-left, two-right results in two states. That’s unless ACT Senate candidate David Pocock is deemed part of the left and succeeds in ousting Zed Seselja, in which case it comes down to one. However, my reading of the polls is that it’s hard to see in what state the extra seat comes from, although Tasmania, from which there is next to no credible data, cannot be ruled out. More likely is that Nick Xenophon returns and/or the Jacqui Lambie Network wins a second seat, in which case an incoming Labor government will need support from either or both in addition to the Greens to win passage for contested legislation. But there remains a worst case scenario for an incoming Labor government in which the Coalition and One Nation have half the numbers between them. An expanded post on the Senate with a dedicated thread for discussion of the Senate race is something I hope to get around to one of these days.

• The third leaders’ debate of the campaign, hosted by the Seven Network on Wednesday night and moderated by Mark Riley, was rated a clear win for Anthony Albanese by undecided voters gathered by the network in four marginal seats to subject proceedings to a “pub test”. Albanese was deemed to have won by 50% compared with 25% for Scott Morrison in both Macquarie and Solomon, and by 52% in Chisholm, against 35% for Morrison. The two were tied at 44% among the sample in Hasluck.

• A claim by Fiona Martin, the Liberal member for Reid, that her Labor opponent Sally Sitou was only contesting the seat because she had been knocked back for preselection in Fowler has prompted suggestions she had confused her opponent with Tu Le, who was passed over for Labor preselection in the seat to accommodate Kristina Keneally. Martin defended herself by pointing to a news report from 2018 that Sitou was being “touted” as a possible candidate for the corresponding state seat of Cabramatta, sufficient for her to be deemed a “failed state candidate for Cabramatta”. There appears to be no actual suggestion she was ever in prospect for Fowler.

The Australian reports on data from PowerHousing Australia identifying the 20 seats in which property prices and rents have increased the most over the past two years. Notable in respect to property prices are Gilmore at number one (55.5% higher), Bass at number six (51.7%), Lyons at number eleven (49.0%), Eden-Monaro at number sixteen (47.0%) and Dobell at number nineteen (46.2%). For rents: Robertson at number four (26.7%), Bass at number seventeen (23.9%) and Solomon at number twenty (23.6%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,231 comments on “Federal election minus eight days”

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  1. Simon Benson might as well run for the Liberals in a future election, he is such a hack. But trust the Australian to put a desperate pro Morrison spin on yet another bad poll for the Coalition.

  2. Oh the gritted teeth over at Mordor Media’s flagship lol

    The Australian
    Newspoll: Fumbling Albanese takes a knock but Labor still ahead

  3. UpNorth: have we yet agreed on an official title for the collective otherwise known as the Poll Bludger Labor pissheads club?
    And more members, the merrier.

  4. I would like to see the voters of Dixon send him on his way. Many of us thought once that Abbott was unelectable too, and under different circumstances he should have been, but he became Prime Minister. Dutton would be far, far worse than Abbott imho. I want him out of Australian politics.

    This x eleventh billion

  5. @sprocket_ says:
    Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:41 pm

    A bit odd they are putting NewsPoll out on a Friday night?

    Don’t want to rain in ScoMo’s parade with his Sunday ‘campaign launch LOL’ with a dud poll. How pathetic is Murdoch
    _____________________

    Probably just setting up for next weeks pre-election poll, sampling would be mon-thurs this week, if they did a standard poll would have to be in the field continuous until next thursday sprocket_ says:
    Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:41 pm

    A bit odd they are putting NewsPoll out on a Friday night?

    Don’t want to rain in ScoMo’s parade with his Sunday ‘campaign launch LOL’ with a dud poll. How pathetic is Murdoch
    to be released on Friday/Sat.

  6. Evan at 9.43

    Bad poll? This Newspoll is a DISASTER for the LNP!

    Note two things: Hawke’s 1983 2PP was 53.23 – 54 would be historic!

    Also, the revised (since 2019) Newspoll has been close in three state elections (Qld WA SA) but slightly underestimated Labor each time!

    If the actual federal 2PP is 54 or better, the will not be sufficient alcoholic beverages in the world for the needs of the Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club!

  7. So nothing but rounding errors in Newspoll. Spinners gotta spin, but the concrete boots have set for Scomo 2.0 in the polls.

    Now just to test how well the polls have mapped against the actual votes.

  8. Elon Musk and twitter never felt like a done deal to me.
    It may still go ahead. I will be very surprised if it does.

  9. There is an article at The Guardian detailing the circumstances of the China Navy ship being where it was/is

    And they quote opinions of people presented as expert in this field

    The Defence Department response was cleared by the Minister’s Office, noting that response is not as inflammatory as the language at the Minister’s press conference

    The Pentecostal with the glass jaw described Albanese the other day, responding to the minimum wage comment by Albanese

    The Pentecostal with the glass jaw should now apply the same description to Dutton, and stand him down

    This government is once again trashing Australia’s reputation on the International stage

    We are a laughing stock, unfortunately

  10. Re Tom Atkins…. was a qld character..I thought first about the short period on Townsville council mentioned… but it was left Labor and communist.Atkins started left of Labor and moved to the right. He voted for Pat Field to be appointed to the senate Tom Atkins was expelled due to the efforts of Tom Douherty who was corruptly running the awu for many years. Clyde Cameron, ‘s aim in life was to defeat him within the awu Cameron was upset as he died before the ballot he would have lost

  11. Victoria @ #1212 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:50 pm

    Elon Musk and twitter never felt like a done deal to me.
    It may still go ahead. I will be very surprised if it does.

    Didn’t I say this weeks ago? If Elon Musk buys Twitter and people get to say nasty things about China on Twitter, China won’t be happy and all of a sudden the Tesla production plant will be on an inexplicable go slow. ‘Technical difficulties’ or something like that. 😐

  12. C@t

    Douglas and Milko,
    Two things:

    1. Don’t forget we need to organise another PB get together in Sydney!

    2. Did you see the Sag 2 photos? But I bet you know more than most about it all.

    Hopefully we can get together for celebration post election. Whatever happens we should have champagne. As Napoleon said “In victory you deserve it, in defeat you need it.”

    The Sgr A* (for those of us who know it well enough to call it by its nickname) blackhole accretion disk images are very good. I will (eventually) check to see how my papers estimating the mass of the black hole at the centre of Sgr A* with lower resolution data compare to EHT.

    I am most impressed by the three “hotspots” in the disk image. Is this where the accretion disk is gobbling up stars or molecular gas? That would be fascinating – I will leave the observing proposals to a new generation. But imaging with VLBI at 1-mm is incredibly difficult, and so imaging reliability is relatively low. That being said, me and OH have talked about this result – we both have skin in the game – and it has been quite rare, in observational astrophysics, that a published result has been overturned.
    So, what are those hotspots in the “heat” colormap?

    [Edit] With big thanks to Saint KayJay that the image below actually worked!!!

  13. Douglas and Milko @ #1217 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:57 pm

    C@t

    Douglas and Milko,
    Two things:

    1. Don’t forget we need to organise another PB get together in Sydney!

    2. Did you see the Sag 2 photos? But I bet you know more than most about it all.

    Hopefully we can get together for celebration post election. Whatever happens we should have champagne. As Napoleon said “In victory you deserve it, in defeat you need it.”

    The Sgr A* (for those of us who know it well enough to call it by its nickname) blackhole accretion disk images are very good. I will (eventually) check to see how my papers estimating the mass of the black hole at the centre of Sgr A* with lower resolution data compare to EHT.

    I am most impressed by the three “hotspots” in the disk image. Is this where the accretion disk is gobbling up stars or molecular gas? That would be fascinating – I will leave the observing proposals to a new generation. But imaging with VLBI at 1-mm is incredibly difficult, and so imaging reliability is relatively low. That being said, me and OH have talked about this result – we both have skin in the game – and it has been quite rare, in observational astrophysics, that a published result has been overturned.
    So, what are those hotspots in the “heat” colormap?

    D& M,
    Jaeger helpfully put this article up this morning:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-05-12/black-hole-sagittariusa-milky-way-image-event-horizon-telescope/101041816

    You probably know everyone in it. 😀

  14. “If things that hurt people help get you more power, people will continue to do them”

    Remember Peter Buttigieg? Here’s Pete on the current state of politics in the USA, and have they reached the highwater mark in “freedom’ and “rights”.

    https://youtu.be/5ysZYwjuFes

  15. “The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club will piss on Latham and Murray!”
    UpNorth, if your getting that sausage out near Latham you’re on your own bro.

  16. Douglas and Milko

    Extraordinary images.

    And ironic they come as Morrison looks like he is about to fall into a McMahon sized black hole as far as the Liberal Party is concerned.

  17. “ I would like to see the voters of Dixon send him on his way. Many of us thought once that Abbott was unelectable too, and under different circumstances he should have been, but he became Prime Minister. Dutton would be far, far worse than Abbott imho. I want him out of Australian politics.

    This x eleventh billion”

    Plus 1.

    Australia desperately needs to rest its relations with China, the PI and SE Asia. Dutton – as leader of the opposition, or even a senior shadow minister, would continue to amp up the language – backed by at least 9/Faix and most or Mordor. Albanese and Wong need some breathing space for that reset.

  18. Mavis @ #1189 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:33 pm

    ItzaDream:

    Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:04 pm

    [‘Give him/us a break Mavis. He’s not even Prime Minister yet. Compare him with past PMs when he’s run his two to three PM terms, if you’re looking for historical perspective.’]

    You’re missing my point, which is the circumstances under which Whitlam and Hawke came to power – charisma & it was time. Thus in a fashion, if Labor gets up, Albanese’s feat may exceed his predecessors, both the aforementioned facing far lesser opponents than Morrison. Anyway, it’s goodnight from him.

    You’ve lost me; I got know idea what your point is. It started out Albanese would win on the back on the cost of living with nothing to do with Morrison(even mentioned the ‘drover’s dog’ put down) and was no Whitlam or Hawke, and now you’re saying Albanese may be the greater of the three having overcome Morrison.

    Your ref Mavis 7:52pm : The principal issue of the election is the cost of living, not Morrison’s character – the lack thereof. Most could live with this provided they could feed their family. Albanese is fortunate that almost all the planets have aligned whereas this was not the case in 2019. I hesitate to refer to Hayden’s “drover’s dog” but it’s almost on par, absent Hawke’s charismatic authority.

    Just sayin’.


  19. sprocket_says:
    Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:43 pm
    HT Leroy..

    #Newspoll TPP L/NP 46 (0) ALP 54 (0)
    Primary L/NP 35 (0) ALP 38 (-1) GRN 11 (0) ON 6 (+1) UAP 3 (-1) OTH 7 (+1) theaustralian.com.au/nation/politic… ($) #auspol #ausvotes

    The poll says
    1. ALP lost 1%
    2. ON gained 1%
    3. Others gained 1%
    4. LNP steady
    5. Greens steady
    6. UAP lost 1%

    It appears
    So 1 % from ALP to others
    1%from UAP to ON

  20. Ven @ #1228 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 11:09 pm


    sprocket_says:
    Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:43 pm
    HT Leroy..

    #Newspoll TPP L/NP 46 (0) ALP 54 (0)
    Primary L/NP 35 (0) ALP 38 (-1) GRN 11 (0) ON 6 (+1) UAP 3 (-1) OTH 7 (+1) theaustralian.com.au/nation/politic… ($) #auspol #ausvotes

    The poll says
    1. ALP lost 1%
    2. ON gained 1%
    3. Others gained 1%
    4. LNP steady
    5. Greens steady
    6. UAP lost 1%

    It appears
    So 1 % from ALP to others
    1%from UAP to ON

    All rather meaningless movement with a MOE of 3%.

  21. Boinzo @ #1223 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 10:34 pm

    “The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club will piss on Latham and Murray!”
    UpNorth, if your getting that sausage out near Latham you’re on your own bro.

    Gee, that degenerated quickly. From a few like-minded lefties celebrating a famous victory to a sausage competition in nanoseconds. A few congratulatory drinks will suffice.

  22. Hang in there Australia. Keep on asking for the essential accountability, integrity and honesty, until the election time at least. Remember this is our Country.

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