Ahead of the last weekend before the big day, and with nearly a million pre-polls plus over 750,000 returned postals already in the bag:
• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Nika Savva writes that Liberal internal polling shows the primary votes of the six members under challenge from teal independents have “plunged to between the mid-30s and the low 40s”, and that there is “an ever-expanding list of prime Liberal real estate tilting to Labor including Bennelong, Reid, Chisholm, Higgins, Brisbane, Ryan and Leichhardt”. Savva further accuses Scott Morrison of sacrificing these seats in a bid to “harvest votes in the regions and outer suburbs” by reviving the controversy over Warringah candidate Katherine Deves’ comments on transgender issues. According to a “well-connected Liberal” quoted by Savva, the interview on Monday in which Deves recanted her earlier apology was “set up deliberately to resuscitate the issue”.
• I had a piece in Crikey on Wednesday looking at prospects for the Senate race, and in particular for the chamber’s overall balance to tip over in favour of the left. Since the “right”, i.e. the Coalition plus One Nation, won four seats in Queensland in 2019, such an outcome would require four-left, two-right results in two states. That’s unless ACT Senate candidate David Pocock is deemed part of the left and succeeds in ousting Zed Seselja, in which case it comes down to one. However, my reading of the polls is that it’s hard to see in what state the extra seat comes from, although Tasmania, from which there is next to no credible data, cannot be ruled out. More likely is that Nick Xenophon returns and/or the Jacqui Lambie Network wins a second seat, in which case an incoming Labor government will need support from either or both in addition to the Greens to win passage for contested legislation. But there remains a worst case scenario for an incoming Labor government in which the Coalition and One Nation have half the numbers between them. An expanded post on the Senate with a dedicated thread for discussion of the Senate race is something I hope to get around to one of these days.
• The third leaders’ debate of the campaign, hosted by the Seven Network on Wednesday night and moderated by Mark Riley, was rated a clear win for Anthony Albanese by undecided voters gathered by the network in four marginal seats to subject proceedings to a “pub test”. Albanese was deemed to have won by 50% compared with 25% for Scott Morrison in both Macquarie and Solomon, and by 52% in Chisholm, against 35% for Morrison. The two were tied at 44% among the sample in Hasluck.
• A claim by Fiona Martin, the Liberal member for Reid, that her Labor opponent Sally Sitou was only contesting the seat because she had been knocked back for preselection in Fowler has prompted suggestions she had confused her opponent with Tu Le, who was passed over for Labor preselection in the seat to accommodate Kristina Keneally. Martin defended herself by pointing to a news report from 2018 that Sitou was being “touted” as a possible candidate for the corresponding state seat of Cabramatta, sufficient for her to be deemed a “failed state candidate for Cabramatta”. There appears to be no actual suggestion she was ever in prospect for Fowler.
• The Australian reports on data from PowerHousing Australia identifying the 20 seats in which property prices and rents have increased the most over the past two years. Notable in respect to property prices are Gilmore at number one (55.5% higher), Bass at number six (51.7%), Lyons at number eleven (49.0%), Eden-Monaro at number sixteen (47.0%) and Dobell at number nineteen (46.2%). For rents: Robertson at number four (26.7%), Bass at number seventeen (23.9%) and Solomon at number twenty (23.6%).
Thank you William from all your Bludgers for this forum and your hard work. Greatly appreciated.
They also have a short memory – everyone knows Tony Abbott was Gollum. e.g.:
http://loonpond.blogspot.com/2017/07/in-which-pond-celebrates-prattling.html
Incredible to see 54.3%-45.7% 8 days out. These are historic numbers.
Either there are massive polling errors re 2015 UK election [1]
Or a wipe-out for the Liberal party. There are some small parallels to the 1993 conservative wipe-out [2], and if the polls show the swing away from the liberals we have seen this last week continuing then anything is possible [3]
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/exit-polls-conservatives-largest-party-hung-parliament
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election
[3]
Black hole images: First look at Sagittarius A* at heart of Milky Way revealed by Event Horizon Telescope
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-05-12/black-hole-sagittariusa-milky-way-image-event-horizon-telescope/101041816
I’m sure that when the first image of a black hole (M87*) was released in 2019, they also released an image of Sag A* – almost as a footnote. M87* was far more impressive, so got the headlines.
Since then, they’ve obviously improved their algorithms to deal with the variability of Sag A*, but “first” image? Hmm.
I still can’t believe the Liberals haven’t dropped Deves. What an embarrassment, and surely doing more harm to the party in the long term.
If the moderates in those blue ribbon seats do hang on it’ll be in spite of the Liberal campaign not because of it.
And speaking of brand damage.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bennelong-liberal-candidate-removes-anti-vax-volunteers-from-campaign-20220512-p5akrc.html
The recriminations and blame games begin!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-my-fault-if-moderate-liberals-lose-seats-katherine-deves-20220512-p5akqd.html
The polls may be wrong and it is still posible that in 11 days we wake up to a Sunday morning crying fest after a second Scomo miracle, but leaving the polls aside there really is no sign of a change in the electorate’s mood. Debates don’t win you elections but I got the feeling that the last one (which by the way was a categorical and somewhat surprising triumph for channel 7) may have been instrumental in consolidating the perception that Albo is relatable and genuine. Given the fact that finding a significant contrast in actual policy is hard this time around, Labor’s plans were clearly to run the campaign as a contrast of character. However, it is really hard to frame a contrast in character when the electorate barely recognises your candidate. I felt through the first 3 weeks of the campaign that Labor had stragle to make people able to recognise Albo by his personality, but I really get the sense that the last debate brought the message home. Albo is now persived as the boring father figure that really cares about you. To me that accomplishment may have locked in the election for Labor.
Confessions says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 4:57 am
I still can’t believe the Liberals haven’t dropped Deves. What an embarrassment, and surely doing more harm to the party in the long term.
If the moderates in those blue ribbon seats do hang on it’ll be in spite of the Liberal campaign not because of it.
Morrison is running the Liberal campaign and he’s campaigning to himself. He’s trying to flatter, explain and excuse himself. Along the way, he’s trying to position the Liberal Party as the champion evangelical political voice…as the voice of pentecostal phobias, conspiracy theory, obsession, doctrine, prejudice and escapism.
We have a nutter, a narcissist, an actor, an idiot and a bully as PM. But not for much longer.
When you receive Savva’s “kiss of death”… it’s over.
Bye bye, Scomo!
“Morsatun says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 5:23 am
The polls may be wrong and it is still posible that in 11 days we wake up to a Sunday morning crying fest after a second Scomo miracle”…
Dear me, Mors, you were truly traumatised by the events of 2019….. Calm down, it’s 2022 and the level of Voter Moronisation in the electorate has dropped significantly over the last 3 years… Surely I don’t have to explain why.
I’m not a Twitter person, but every now and again during the campaign I’m looking at #auspol, and there’s always this character @PRGuy17 with some crafted interpretation of events, from a left wing angle. Does anyone know anything about that character, or any credible rumours?
In Guardian Australia, Sarah Martin contorts the stats to offer the latest twist on “both sides are as bad as each other”:
Headline: “‘Glass cliff’: only two in 10 female Coalition and Labor candidates in winnable seats, analysis finds”
“Research from the Australian National University’s Global Institute for Women’s Leadership shows that just 20% of female candidates running for the Coalition are contesting safe seats … For the Labor party, the numbers are slightly better, with 24% of the party’s female candidates contesting safe seats …”
Buried deep in the article, the raw numbers paint a starkly different picture to the breathless headline:
“Labor has preselected a total of 62 female candidates, compared with the 41 preselected by the Liberal and National parties.”
Riiight … so Labor is running 62 x 0.24 = 15 women in safe seats. The Coalition is running just 41 x 0.20 = 8 women in safe seats.
Labor has selected *almost twice as many women* in safe seats than the Coalition. FFS!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/12/glass-cliff-only-two-in-10-female-coalition-and-labor-candidates-in-winnable-seats-analysis-finds?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Alpo says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 5:40 am
Same voters, but different approach by Labor. Very different. Meanwhile Morrison has spent 3 years proving to voters that he’s a blustering, bullying idiot who likes to play dress ups.
Just watched that LNP ‘Albo as Gollum’ ad.
As political campaign advertising goes, it truly is…indescribable!
“More likely is that Nick Xenophon returns and/or the Jacqui Lambie Network wins a second seat, in which case an incoming Labor government will need support from either or both in addition to the Greens to win passage for contested legislation. ”
Yes, that’s credible. PM Albo will need the support of both Greens and somebody else in the Senate. For as long as that somebody else is broadly a Populist, then it may not be too difficult to get him/her to support ALP policies that favour the common people. Albo’s major work, however, will be to convince the Greens to calm down and support Evolutionary change, rather than getting all hysterical trying to impose a Revolution on 90% of the rest of Australia.
But overall, I am optimistic about how the Senate will work….
Bennelong Liberal volunteer (per Confessions):
“Guess how smart I am?”
Hmm … not very, apparently.
“The Australian reports on data from PowerHousing Australia identifying the 20 seats in which property prices and rents have increased the most over the past two years.”….
Yep, and Scomo may shout as much as he likes (and regularly smirk in between), but that’s always bad news for the incumbent Federal government as we are ready to cast our vote.
I finally found my phone. I have not been here much because I got very tired. Quite drained. With this attack on Roe v Wade, I am wondering if all the rights I spent my years supporting, have to be fought for all over again. t never freacken stops!
i finally found my p
I finally found my phone. I have not been here much because I got very tired. Quite drained. With this attack on Roe v Wade, I am wondering if all the rights I spent my years supporting, have to be fought for all over again. t never freacken stops!
Felix
PR Guy has been around on Twitter for a while especially on the Vic scene.
His identity is secret, despite anti-vaxxers, Neo-Nazis and other assorted nutjobs going yo lengths such as trying to take the matter to court to identify him.
“Bludging says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 5:45 am
Alpo says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 5:40 am
Same voters, but different approach by Labor.”
Yes, there is definitely a different approach by Labor (in politics, not learning from your mistakes is suicide). But many voters, although being the same person in name, are different in mind compared to 2019. So many things have happened in the past 3 years that have shaken very many Australians. So much so, that even the “mighty-Murdoch” and his assistant Costello won’t be able to sell a turd as “gold” this time around.
Thanks Expat, even court cases that sounds quite something. Sounds like this very account is why the government wants to “unmask trolls”.
“ we wake up to a Sunday morning crying fest after a second Scomo miracle”
Good grief, why would anyone wake up crying? Life will carry on regardless of who wins.
Confessions @ #7 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 5:22 am
She’s not to blame if others lose their seats due to her stridently stated and repeatedly reiterated views!?! Mind boggling.
Honestly. This woman isn’t going to Sky After Dark after the election, she’s probably been signed up already by Rupert Murdoch to go directly to Fox News!
puffyTMD,
With an elected Labor federal government, Women’s Bodily Rights will be secure.
“Oliver Sutton says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 5:43 am
In Guardian Australia, Sarah Martin contorts the stats to offer the latest twist on “both sides are as bad as each other””
Excellent post, Oliver… In The Guardian, the “Libs and Labs are just the same” meme is intended to help the Greens. I don’t mind the progressive TG supporting the progressive Greens, but when they do it through direct (and usually indirect) attacks/manipulation against the progressive Labor, then you truly wonder how “progressive” they really are.
And what’s this malarkey with Katherine Deves breaking down in tears? Playing the Victim Card, that’s what it is. She’s brought it all on herself. I have zero sympathy for her. I do have sympathy for Transgender Australians though.
I’ve dealt with Transgender Australians throughout my pharmacy career. They are truly prepared to do whatever it takes to become a man or a woman. Because that’s what they feel they truly are. I’ve filled the prescriptions as they transitioned. They have to take a lot of tablets to make the process complete but they are happy to do it because it gets them to where they want to be in order to have peace in their lives.
And honestly, Katherine Deves is a hypocrite because it sure looks to my eyes as if she has had a large amount of plastic surgery herself. So it’s alright for her to change her appearance and become her perfect self but it’s not okay for others?
Give. Me. A. Break!
However, I will also add, before this saga is finally over at the election, that I am reserving a special contempt for Katherine Campbell. A Liberal and arguably Australia’s most prominent Transgender Woman. Not a peep out of her for the whole of the election campaign, when normally she is voluble about everything from cricket to foreign and military policy. I bet if she could have played in the Australian Women’s Cricket Team she would have. So we could have had no one better than her to comment on this issue, Transgender Women in Sport. But what have we got instead?
*crickets* from a gutless wonder. Not to mention the gutless media who didn’t seek out her views. I have contempt for them all. Zero courage to stand up for those among us who truly deserve our sympathy.
In Australia people have rights because a majority of the people are convinced they should. In the US people have rights because a majority of the Supreme Court justices think they should. It is much harder to change the minds of 10 million odd people than five people, because much of the opinion is passed through diverse and informal methods. Consequently I would expect that rights in Australia, once won, will last for longer. But winning them in the first place takes much much longer (see: abortion being legalised only last year/covid time; marriage equality being legalised some time later in Australia than in the US). I used to be in favor of a Bill of Rights for Australia too, but the developments in the US these last few years have really changed my mind. It’s better to change the minds of everyone so that the law has popular consent, than just focussing on a few. And in practice countries that have constitutional bills of rights and those that don’t have basically travelled in the same direction.
Well said, Felix the Cassowary.
“Jaegersays:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 3:50 am”…
I just watched the Gollum Liberal party ad…. This is getting truly ridiculous: a group of psychopaths trying to communicate an incomprehensible message to other psychopaths?….
The Libs keep using the stereotype of “latte sipping” progressives…. I think it’s quite proper to start using the stereotype of amphetamine injecting/snorting/smoking/swallowing Liberals.
Morsatunsays:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 5:23 am. Albo is now persived as the boring father figure that really cares about you. To me that accomplishment may have locked in the election for Labor.
_____________________
He didn’t care about Kitching I know that much.
What about copyright re: Lord of the rings?
We pondered this when the ALP did Abbott’s Addams Family. Now that was a cracker ad.
Morrison the pentacostals, having fluked the miracle in 2019, has scuptured an image of himself as a pope like figure.
All the hand grasping, paternal back slapping, all thanks to the womenfolk, sermoning and infallibility.
I’m genuinely surprised that this preacher has maintained his leadership role within the parliamentary liberal party and still has some followers attempting the laying of palm leaf with each now futile visit to some never to be visited again campaign destination.
What has this deluded nutcase not achieved besides derision?
What has this pompous bully not setback?
What amount of money has this robber thrown towards the greediest?
It’s near enough impossible to get the Australian public to change their vote.
Morrison has re-invented the national cringe!
Eight more days an eternity!
Someone should give Peter Jackson a call in NZ and tell him how his character has been misappropriated.
I’d like to commend Kevin Rudd on his anti Murdoch campaign of these last few years. I’m sure it’s helped to finally bell the cat and expose this old scoundrel for what he is. It has definitely given the unengaged a lesson in Australian cockeyed media coverage and will pay dividends over the next three years. For too long a small number of shock jocks and hard right journos have ruled the opinion making space. Johnny the H rued the ABCs lack of a right wing Phillip Adams FFS!! When we now have Switzer, PK, Speersy, Stan and even Amanda Van stone. We had Alan Jones spewing made up nonsense and dodgy climate numbers, Ray Hadley who should have stayed with the footy, the laughing clowns of sky at night, even want to be shockers like Kak and I think even the glamourous ex movie man John Michael Howson was limbering up for a shot at the anti Labor radio way back then, Howard’s “Battler” Sattler in WA with his outrageous anti Gillard slurs, the list goes on through the years. Though many of these people have departed or are in dotage the ALP will need to fight their disinformation and when one goes off into the never never another like ” agro” Murray or Fordham will follow the big bucks into anti egalitarian discourse and conservative bomb throwing. Keep up the good fight KR as it means Albo can keep above it.
We can’t forget what’s going on in the rest of the world either:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/12/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates-latest-putin-zelenskiy-finland-nato-bid
C@t
I think you a referring to Abbott’s transgender pal, Catherine McGregor.
Katherine Campbell is a public servant, now head of DFAT.
@C@tmomma
As someone with a Trans child, I cannot agree more and thank you enough for your comments. Absolutely nailed it.
Sorry sprocket_, yeah Catherine McGregor. 😳
Thank you, Luke. Go well with your family. 🙂
“Confessionssays:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 5:22 am
The recriminations and blame games begin!
Katherine Deves says she will not be to blame if moderate Liberal MPs lose their seats because of her controversial views on transgender children, claiming most Australians agree with her campaign on women’s sport and are more focused on other issues.
In a candid interview, the Liberal candidate for the northern beaches electorate of Warringah repeatedly burst into tears and spoke of “dark moments” she has experienced after her incendiary comments propelled her to become one of the election’s most high-profile candidates.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-my-fault-if-moderate-liberals-lose-seats-katherine-deves-20220512-p5akqd.html”
Further evidence of how fucked up fairfax is nowadays…..and particularly “journos” like Latika Bourke. If you are getting an interview with Deves in this election you are being used to position the “Device”, it’s a simple as that. On Monday it was sky news and the dead cat “adolescence genital manipulation”. On Friday it is a softnening piece in a publication people in Blue-Teal land are more likely to read
You gotta laugh at this though
“I did not expect that some tweets about a complex, nuanced argument that I’d been having before I’d even considered putting my hand up for politics were going to dominate my campaign.”
This is performance art
Michael Rowland giving Anne Ruston a proper grilling on ABC Breakfast just now.
The media tone has most definitely shifted.
Now we’re talking: some of our pollies may be feeling a little queasy over their Weeties this morning:
“Labor expects its proposed national integrity commission will examine alleged misconduct from as far back as 15 years, with both former and current politicians eligible to be investigated under a broad definition of corruption.
Unlike the Coalition, Labor has promised to create an integrity body with retrospective powers, meaning it could examine decisions taken before the
commission came into being.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-integrity-commission-to-investigate-allegations-from-a-long-time-ago-20220512-p5akvr.html
Foot-and-mouth outbreak fears for Australia as Indonesia grapples with outbreak
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-13/foot-and-mouth-outbreak-fears-for-australia-/101059658
“The $741m Resilient Homes Fund is designed to help home owners affected by flooding. Who is eligible and how does it work?”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-13/resilient-homes-fund-explainer-brisbane-queensland-floods-grants/101061808?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web
Swiss, Italian, French? The Brexiteers will choke on it.
No mere trifle: amateur baker creates ‘platinum pudding’ fit for the Queen
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/12/platinum-pudding-jubilee-swiss-roll-queen
“Taylormadesays:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 6:47 am
Morsatunsays:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 5:23 am. Albo is now persived as the boring father figure that really cares about you. To me that accomplishment may have locked in the election for Labor.
_____________________
He didn’t care about Kitching I know that much.”…
It’s clear that Kitching’s sudden and tragic death caused a major breakdown in the mind of the Liberal party politicians and stormtroopers… I can only wonder why?
Thank you, Jaeger, for the Black Hole article earlier. 🙂
Murdoch tabloids giving Labor and Albo a free pass with coordinated silence – instead going after those ‘arrogant Teal women’. Apparently the goons asked the Teals for some policy positions, and they were told to shove it up their clacker.
Murdoch tabloids complaining about others being ‘arrogant’ is the height of chutzpah…