Ahead of the last weekend before the big day, and with nearly a million pre-polls plus over 750,000 returned postals already in the bag:
• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Nika Savva writes that Liberal internal polling shows the primary votes of the six members under challenge from teal independents have “plunged to between the mid-30s and the low 40s”, and that there is “an ever-expanding list of prime Liberal real estate tilting to Labor including Bennelong, Reid, Chisholm, Higgins, Brisbane, Ryan and Leichhardt”. Savva further accuses Scott Morrison of sacrificing these seats in a bid to “harvest votes in the regions and outer suburbs” by reviving the controversy over Warringah candidate Katherine Deves’ comments on transgender issues. According to a “well-connected Liberal” quoted by Savva, the interview on Monday in which Deves recanted her earlier apology was “set up deliberately to resuscitate the issue”.
• I had a piece in Crikey on Wednesday looking at prospects for the Senate race, and in particular for the chamber’s overall balance to tip over in favour of the left. Since the “right”, i.e. the Coalition plus One Nation, won four seats in Queensland in 2019, such an outcome would require four-left, two-right results in two states. That’s unless ACT Senate candidate David Pocock is deemed part of the left and succeeds in ousting Zed Seselja, in which case it comes down to one. However, my reading of the polls is that it’s hard to see in what state the extra seat comes from, although Tasmania, from which there is next to no credible data, cannot be ruled out. More likely is that Nick Xenophon returns and/or the Jacqui Lambie Network wins a second seat, in which case an incoming Labor government will need support from either or both in addition to the Greens to win passage for contested legislation. But there remains a worst case scenario for an incoming Labor government in which the Coalition and One Nation have half the numbers between them. An expanded post on the Senate with a dedicated thread for discussion of the Senate race is something I hope to get around to one of these days.
• The third leaders’ debate of the campaign, hosted by the Seven Network on Wednesday night and moderated by Mark Riley, was rated a clear win for Anthony Albanese by undecided voters gathered by the network in four marginal seats to subject proceedings to a “pub test”. Albanese was deemed to have won by 50% compared with 25% for Scott Morrison in both Macquarie and Solomon, and by 52% in Chisholm, against 35% for Morrison. The two were tied at 44% among the sample in Hasluck.
• A claim by Fiona Martin, the Liberal member for Reid, that her Labor opponent Sally Sitou was only contesting the seat because she had been knocked back for preselection in Fowler has prompted suggestions she had confused her opponent with Tu Le, who was passed over for Labor preselection in the seat to accommodate Kristina Keneally. Martin defended herself by pointing to a news report from 2018 that Sitou was being “touted” as a possible candidate for the corresponding state seat of Cabramatta, sufficient for her to be deemed a “failed state candidate for Cabramatta”. There appears to be no actual suggestion she was ever in prospect for Fowler.
• The Australian reports on data from PowerHousing Australia identifying the 20 seats in which property prices and rents have increased the most over the past two years. Notable in respect to property prices are Gilmore at number one (55.5% higher), Bass at number six (51.7%), Lyons at number eleven (49.0%), Eden-Monaro at number sixteen (47.0%) and Dobell at number nineteen (46.2%). For rents: Robertson at number four (26.7%), Bass at number seventeen (23.9%) and Solomon at number twenty (23.6%).
A media inquiry, by the incoming ALP government, could be a start.
Legislation to divest media conglomerates from dominating; print, radio, television & digital in the market place would be better.
However, an incoming ALP Government, should apply a total media ban upon the Murdoch / Fox organisation – as successfully applied by the Carr (NSW) and Keating (Federal) governments, towards Jones & 2GB.
Don’t give the thieves any oxygen.
The Government should only deal with SBS, ABC and non-aligned, fair & balanced media organisations.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/13/federal-election-minus-eight-days/#comment-3903042
Don’t let the facts get in the way of #SFM believing his own press releases?
Our messages, stuff that bubbles up, their messages …
I guess if you can’t convince enough swing voters, motivate the base, well there’s tacking to the extremes, for any votes, and hoping for them billionaire preferences?
The Revisionist,
Comments under the Deves article are not sympathetic to her.
Good to see Latika Bourke being used to further the Morrison Textor wedge campaign, from Warringah via London.
In a candid interview, the Liberal candidate for the northern beaches electorate of Warringah repeatedly burst into tears and spoke of “dark moments” she has experienced after her incendiary comments propelled her to become one of the election’s most high-profile candidates.
Stage managed event, really the Libs deserve to get thrashed.
John Black has a good article on the AFR, where he talks about historical approaches similar to MRP.
He summarises his analysis of this so…
John BlackElection Analyst
Updated May 12, 2022 – 4.33pm,
first published at 3.48pm
All the polls at this stage are pointing to a win for Labor and – at this stage – I think they’re correct.
My reading of the polls and their associated demographic profiles has Labor gaining eight seats from the Coalition (Lindsay and Bennelong in NSW, Boothby in SA, Bass and Braddon in Tasmania and Swan, Hasluck and Pearce in Western Australia).
This would give the ALP a bare majority of 77 seats out of the 151 in the House of Representatives.
However, there’s another eight seats that are now too close call, but which could be picked up by Labor, including at least two of which that could go to the Greens.
These are Longman, Leichhardt, Dickson, Brisbane and Ryan in Queensland, Reid in NSW, and Casey and Chisholm in Victoria. Brisbane and Ryan could also easily be won by the Greens, given preference flows.
For the Coalition, this would leave them on between 58 and 66 seats, before we factor in what could be the loss of between four and eight Coalition seats to teal candidates in North Sydney, Wentworth, Cowper, Mackellar in NSW, Flinders, Kooyong and Goldstein in Victoria and Curtin in Perth.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/as-tradies-deserted-labor-so-career-women-turn-liberal-seats-teal-20220511-p5ak9t
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s a Friday feast!
Some Liberals fear the character assassination of Scott Morrison is complete. If true, the election is all over, but he doesn’t buy it, writes David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/waging-war-from-a-deep-trench-morrison-camp-says-it-can-defy-polls-20220512-p5akoz.html
NineFax has asked Anthony Albanese if he had thought about what it would mean to Australia’s multicultural communities to have an Italian-Australian as prime minister and the first Muslim member of a federal cabinet in Ed Husic.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/you-can-achieve-anything-in-this-country-albanese-on-his-italian-roots-and-modern-australia-20220512-p5aksu.html
David Crowe and Katina Curtis report that Labor has gained an edge over the Coalition in a new scorecard of economic and social policies for women that could sway voters at the coming election, highlighting a gulf on key issues ranging from childcare to equal pay and safety from violence.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/who-is-better-for-women-independent-scorecard-gives-one-major-party-the-edge-20220512-p5akva.html
By any objective assessment, Anthony Albanese has had a poor campaign. Apart from his period in isolation, he has pretty much averaged a gaffe per week, but the polls have stayed solid, writes a down in the mouth Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-averages-a-gaffe-a-week-voters-don-t-seem-to-care-20220512-p5akn1
I have not seen a more backward-looking campaign by a sitting government, writes David Penberthy who says a doomed ScoMo paying the price for forgetting about SA.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/david-penberthy-the-liberals-have-forgotten-the-lesson-of-their-greatest-pm-john-howard/news-story/31401fe192b1582e470fbac1486f2fb1?amp
It’s Albanese’s to lose, as Morrison looks for some momentum, concludes Michelle Grattan. She says people were “over” Howard, as they’re “over” Scott Morrison. But the feeling against Howard was that he’d had his time – it’s visceral against Morrison.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-its-albaneses-to-lose-as-morrison-looks-for-some-momentum-182953
Josh Gordon tells us that Australia’s financial watchdog is considering launching a sweeping inquiry into the federal carve-up of infrastructure funding, after Victoria complained it has been short-changed by the Morrison government.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/auditor-general-mulls-review-of-federal-infrastructure-spending-in-victoria-20220512-p5aknk.html
A leader of the Liberal Party’s moderate faction has issued a plea to voters not to boot the party’s sitting MPs in favour of independents. New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean warned the move would leave the Liberals at risk of being taken over by fringe right-wing activists and conspiracy theorists. He’s not wrong!
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/12/liberal-party-moderates-alarm/
The AFR’s editorial declares that the 5.1 per cent minimum pay rise Anthony Albanese wants would risk a wage-price spiral that would jeopardise Australia’s low jobless rate.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/jobs-or-inflation-that-s-the-big-question-20220511-p5ak9q
But wage Justice can be delivered while also containing inflation, explains Dr Tristan Ewins.
https://theaimn.com/wage-justice-can-be-delivered-while-also-containing-inflation/
There has never been a better time to increase minimum wages than now. And there has never been a bigger need, argues David Peetz.
https://johnmenadue.com/should-the-federal-government-support-a-5-1-increase-in-minimum-wages/
The end of coal is nigh. The next government must tell the truth, says Alan Kohler.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/05/12/coal-end-alan-kohler/
Were the Liberals and Nationals to win on 21 May, the successful Liberal MPs would give little if any credit to Morrison. Most would regard a win as having been achieved despite Morrison’s performance in the campaign and in the last three years of his government, writes David Solomon who opines that even if the Liberals win, Morrison won’t.
https://johnmenadue.com/even-if-the-liberals-win-morrison-wont/
Anthony Galloway reports that a former high commissioner to the Solomon Islands has questioned whether Australia is still a free country after being “manhandled” by Scott Morrison’s security when he tried to talk to the prime minister about mishandling the relationship with the Pacific Island nation.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-solomon-islands-high-commissioner-manhandled-by-morrison-s-security-20220512-p5akuj.html
“It’s not my fault if moderate Liberals lose seats”, says Katherine Deves. Latika Bourke takes us through an interview the SMH had with her.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-my-fault-if-moderate-liberals-lose-seats-katherine-deves-20220512-p5akqd.html
Australia is at a critical point. A government that would cling to power to impose unpopular policy threatens the very nature of our democracy, opines Lucy Hamilton.
https://theaimn.com/democracy-in-decline-australias-slide-into-competitive-authoritarianism/
In a speech to be delivered today, Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox will argue the next federal government needs to take the lead on establishing national standards for on-demand gig workers as states, unions and gig companies plan their own differing reforms.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/gig-worker-regulation-on-the-agenda-post-election-aigroup-20220512-p5akq9
The Coalition has made almost $3bn in spending promises across 10 marginal seats ahead of the election, including a surprising $300m to try to flip the Labor seat of McEwen in Melbourne’s outer north.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/13/coalition-targets-marginal-seats-with-almost-3bn-in-election-spending-promises
Mark McGowan has rivers of gold, a commanding parliamentary majority, ironclad caucus support and public popularity. If now is not the time for broader-reaching reforms, it’s unlikely it ever will be, says Gareth Parker.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/mcgowan-s-budget-a-reflection-of-both-his-political-instincts-and-personality-20220512-p5aky4.html
Liberal candidate for Bennelong Simon Kennedy has been forced to remove anti-vax volunteers from his campaign after they were filmed spouting conspiracy theories that the COVID-19 jab was “killing people” and Australia’s vaccination statistics were faked.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bennelong-liberal-candidate-removes-anti-vax-volunteers-from-campaign-20220512-p5akrc.html
The identity crisis of the Liberal-National Coalition around climate change action and a federal integrity commission is writ large in the New South Wales central west electorate of Calare, where a community independent has revived memories of a longstanding former representative, writes Natasha May.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/13/in-the-nsw-central-west-the-talk-once-again-is-of-shaking-the-nationals-grip-on-calare
Matthew Knott tells us that Labor expects its proposed national integrity commission will examine alleged misconduct from as far back as 15 years, with both former and current politicians eligible to be investigated under a broad definition of corruption.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-integrity-commission-to-investigate-allegations-from-a-long-time-ago-20220512-p5akvr.html
Petere Beattie explains why he’s unafraid of teals holding the balance of power – whether Labor or the Coalition governs.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-i-m-unafraid-of-teals-holding-the-balance-of-power-whether-labor-or-the-coalition-governs-20220512-p5aklu.html
Michael Mc Kinley chronicles the track record of Peter Dutton’s incompetence.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-track-record-of-peter-duttons-incompetence/
Peter Hannam writes that economists and advocacy groups have seized on the Morrison government’s objection to lifting minimum wages by the inflation rate, noting benefits such as pensions are tied to how consumer prices change.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/13/morrisons-objection-to-lifting-wages-in-line-with-inflation-puts-spotlight-on-pensions-linked-to-cpi
The Reserve Bank of Australia will pay the big banks $10 billion a year in interest for money the banks have sitting in deposit. Callum Foote and Michael West look at why the RBA has chosen to start paying interest on almost half a trillion dollars sitting in its settlement accounts.
https://michaelwest.com.au/mollycoddled-reserve-banks-10bn-gift-to-banks-to-help-with-rate-stress-or-profits/
“With surgery waitlists in crisis and a workforce close to collapse, why haven’t we had more campaign promises about health?”, ask these contributors to The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/with-surgery-waitlists-in-crisis-and-a-workforce-close-to-collapse-why-havent-we-had-more-campaign-promises-about-health-182327
Modern organised crime is leagues ahead of the police posse, with cartel bosses as wealthy as BRW rich listers. Police know this but don’t want to publicly say it, writes Nick McKenzie. NSW Police Assistant Commissioner Stuart Smith has said these bosses have the facilitators (lawyers, accountants, real estate agents and corrupt insiders) and technology (encrypted phones, crypto currency wallets) to remain so rich. This is a very interesting read.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/inconvenient-truth-on-organised-crime-revealed-it-s-out-of-control-20220512-p5akuw.html
McKenzie follows through, writing that there are claims NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet ignored calls for counter-crime reforms from the offices of two of his senior ministers. McKenzie has quite a scoop here!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/organised-crime-rampant-across-australia-secret-briefings-reveal-20220512-p5akpa.html
The reef wants you to think about climate policy when you vote, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-reef-wants-you-to-think-about-climate-policy-when-you-vote-20220512-p5akt7.html
Anglican disunity on same-sex marriage threatens to tear the church apart, writes Muriel Porter.
https://theconversation.com/anglican-disunity-on-same-sex-marriage-threatens-to-tear-the-church-apart-182936
A Christian school in Melbourne’s east that is under regulatory review over its handling of a former teacher’s sexual crimes against students is urging parents to vote in defence of its right to vet staff by their religious faith. In seeking the resurrection of the Coalition’s religious discrimination bill, it tells parents ,“We hope that the protection of fundamental rights which ensure that this college can continue to stand strong as a Christ-centred, God-fearing, Bible-based, Spirit-led Christian school will be one factor you consider.” Those poor children!
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/god-fearing-school-makes-vote-plea-to-parents-20220512-p5akm8.html
Elizabeth Knight writes that CBA boss Matt Comyn doesn’t think the sky is falling on the economy nor that the Australian housing market is set for a hard landing.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-cba-boss-isn-t-worried-about-inflation-or-higher-interest-rates-20220512-p5akrw.html
Farrah Tomazin explains why Australia’s voting system is the envy of Americans.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-eyes-australia-s-compulsory-voting-system-as-federal-election-looms-20220512-p5akkb.html
Fern Greig-Moore argues that teaching children about death would help remove the taboo.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/teaching-children-about-death-would-help-remove-the-taboo-20220512-p5akud.html
China is increasingly looking like an economic and political disaster zone. But it will take more than COVID to derail its powerhouse economy, writes the London Telegraph’s Matthew Lynn.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/beijing-s-covid-failure-won-t-stop-the-relentless-rise-of-china-20220509-p5ajlr.html
Finland has announced it would apply to join NATO “without delay”, with Sweden expected to follow, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looked set to bring about the very expansion of the Western military alliance that Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed to prevent.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russia-threatens-to-retaliate-as-finland-seeks-nato-membership-without-delay-20220513-p5akyc.html
The World Health Organisation (WHO) last week updated its report on excess deaths from COVID-19, highlighting an extraordinary correlation between deaths and authoritarian leaders, writes Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/authoritarian-leaders-butcher-covid-19-response,16348
A majority of Americans support abortion rights – but will this issue galvanise them to vote Democrat in November?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/can-biden-weaponise-the-abortion-debate-to-win-the-mid-terms-20220512-p5akmm.html
In vitro fertilization treatment is facing a “clear and present danger” and could be a “casualty” of some of the proposed anti-abortion laws that are emerging across the US, according to an advocate of reproductive medicine.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/12/ivf-treatment-us-anti-abortion-laws-bills
The House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the Capitol has issued unprecedented subpoenas to five Republican members of Congress, seeking to compel their cooperation with the inquiry into Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/12/capitol-attack-panel-subpoenas-five-republicans-mccarthy
An alleged war criminal who hid in plain sight in western Sydney for 26 years has been formally charged by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and a warrant has been issued for his arrest.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/arrest-warrant-for-alleged-war-criminal-zoran-tadic/news-story/b2444d2256462ea2b47e99ef191a00ce
A Queensland superyacht tour operator has been arrested during an alleged attempt to flee Australia, after a failed cocaine drug drop left a diver dead in Newcastle this week. James Blake Blee, 62, will appear in Cairns Magistrates Court after he was taken into custody at Cairns Airport on Wednesday while trying to board a flight to Singapore, thereby earning nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/man-arrested-after-allegedly-trying-to-flee-country-over-drug-drop-death-20220512-p5aklw.html
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
Alan Moir
Andrew Dyson
David Rowe
John Shakespeare
Matt Golding
Jim Pavlidis
Fiona Katauskas
Peter Broelman
Some gifs and a catch up from Glen Le Lievre
https://twitter.com/i/status/1524650972307681280
https://twitter.com/i/status/1524641816163012608
https://twitter.com/i/status/1524546794067492865
https://twitter.com/i/status/1524176779510185984
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523892833350221825
Simon Letch
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
John Black on what MRP misses..
Our 1970s group of Housewives has also disappeared, to be replaced by Female Professionals, who are the largest single male or female occupation group and are leading the demographic desertion from the Liberals in what used to be the safest Coalition seats.
From a review of the numbers by individual seats, I’m not sure this trend has been fullyFederal election picked up by this week’s Newspoll seat predictions. (It certainly hasn’t been picked up by Scott Morrison.)
For example, when you try to link an attitudinal survey to a demographic template, you can understate the personal vote of candidates if the voters don’t know who these candidates are.
Personal voters, by definition, don’t associate a popular candidate with their political party, such as John Alexander in Bennelong, who was worth 6 per cent to the Liberal party in 2019. As he retires in 2022, the ALP base 2PP vote rises magically by 6 per cent, meaning it is now on my list of seats won for Labor.
This is a fascinating and detailed look into the way in which lobby groups try to distort our democracy. I routinely get Advance Australia posts which misrepresent Pocock.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-13/checkmate-advance-australia-david-pocock-zed-seselja/101061598
Bloody hell it’s been raining forever.
Hammering down!
I’ll believe Dickson is close when I see Antony Green say it’s close on a Saturday evening. You have to be a very special kind of out-of-touch to lose your seat with a profile like Dutton’s.
Crypto investors panicked on Thursday as bitcoin plummeted to its lowest price in more than a year and other cryptocurrencies endured even worse sell-offs.
Victims of the bloodbath — which comes amid a broader stock market rout — range from the billionaire crypto titans who run leading marketplaces such as Coinbase and Binance to lowly retail investors who have poured their life savings into cryptocurrencies, the New York Post reported.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/world-markets/crypto-investors-panic-during-market-bloodbath-i-will-lose-my-home/news-story/453f15a51fea3e2ccf3ca16c5b6503c2
Terra Luna cryptocurrency price
One week ago: $82.5
Now: $0.02
Hh
I just followed a couple of age old rules.
If you don’t understand it, don’t buy it.
When people say ‘This time it is different’, it never is.
Thank you, BK.
I see you have linked the glass ceiling article. It pisses me off that it covers the story as if Labor is the same as the Liberals and the Nationals.
It is not perfect but it is around twice as good as the Liberals.
Yes, Boerwar. I nearly commented on the choice of the word “edge”.
Thanks again to BK who’s exhaustive list of articles plus erudite commentary and fantastic cartoons of which are some of the best in the world. Phil Coorey Hey !!!,what a prize boofhead he is, nearly as connected to this woeful government as Pezullo. Even Johannes Bjelke leak seems resigned to Scomoe being no mo’ after the 21st. I guess his cockeyed take on things will ramp up after this date as he tries to keep Voldemort happy and continue to draw a good wedge ( of cash )each fortnight.
This provides some fascinating insights into the Australian Chinese voting segment:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/13/chinese-speaking-voters-critical-of-coalitions-militaristic-stance-on-china-in-lead-up-to-2022-election-wechat-study-shows
C@t,
Thanks for being more than just a keyboard warrior.
We need more like you.
Cheers.
I just had a very strange thought. Would it be considered a black swan event if the Queen passed away before our election?
The Guardian’s Sarah Martin is a Liberal supporter, as is the medical reporter (whose name I forget), and a few others. Don’t read anything by them these days.
Ama media
The AMA’s Ambulance Ramping Report Card has found every state and territory is failing to meet its performance targets for the time it takes to transfer patients from an ambulance into the care of the Emergency Department (ED).
https://t.co/hlHv7p46zs https://t.co/3HZE4BLYBH
Felix ,
I’m a big fan of PRGuy but know nothing about him/her.
Am having problems with twitter as I can’t get past its ‘ Before you scroll…’ page. Anyone else or is it just me?
‘Victoria says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:16 am
I just had a very strange thought. Would it be considered a black swan event if the Queen passed away before our election?’
========================
Barely a cygnet, IMO. Morrison would express deepest condolences, praise the Queen and sneer at republicans and Albanese. Albanese would express deepest condolences and praise the Queens. And everyone would go back to sleep.
Thanks,BK.
If you don’t understand it, don’t buy it.
When people say ‘This time it is different’, it never is.
Good investment rules.
There might be another one for speculative investments which goes something like “if you’ve heard of it, it’s too late”.
Boerwar
I see our media going into overdrive.
Lol
‘Victoria says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:20 am
Boerwar
I see our media going into overdrive.
Lol’
===================
If anything it would suck the oxygen out of Morrison’s Noise Makers.
S777
I like that one as well.
G’day all, thinking of those in SE Qld again facing the prospect of floods.
Thanks to BK for his always comprehensive roundup of the stories in today’s newspapers. Phil Coorey – wasn’t he a big Julia Gillard supporter in the media back when she was PM? What made him switch political camps? The sooner he retires, the better, he is little more than a Liberal mouthpiece these days.
Weather sullen. Ground soggy. Low grey clouds. Temp in the mid teens. Rain just about finished here.
Albo in Cairns this morning doing morning radio
Yesterday, Gladstone in Flynn and Lilley in Brisbane.
Showing the Queenslanders he cares, will it move the dial?
Just talking about the death of the Monarch used to be a crime.
”Would it be considered a black swan event if the Queen passed away before our election?”
It could be. I expect that all major political figures would say the right thing. Republicans would lay low. If asked, prominent republicans like Keating would say “now is not the time”. Even the Morrison Government wouldn’t try to capitalise on it.
Many people wouldn’t care. Many would be sad. The impact would be subtle, psychological. Would it change any votes? Who knows?
Some pretty odd views about the Guardian here. IMHO it’s clearly the best Australian news outlet, generally critical of the government but not barracking for Labor. Of course the odd article emphasises or understates things, but that’s inevitable. It is certainly no friend of the LNP and allegations to the contrary are paranoid.
If I have one complaint it’s that their younger cohort spend 90% of the time encouraging people to be disengaged from politics with the general tone being “oh god politics is so grim and awful I can’t even”. If you hate politics maybe get a different job…
Oh, and I sometimes find the doom and gloom levels in the Guardian excessive.
The death of the Queen would push everything else out of the media. This would benefit the front runner in the election.
Albanese doing work in northern Queensland demonstrates the campaign at least think there’s a chance the seats are winnable.
Hope you all have wonderful weekends!
William – thanks again for all you do on this site and for enabling us all, for better or worse, and with the caveat that this is from someone with otherwise little to add. Particularly appreciated the intellectual honesty about the recondite statistical process operated without necessarily fully understanding what was happening under the hood – an “ah, yes, indeed” moment for many of us who need to make use of digested expertise to do the our jobs because art is long and life is short. The Warrigal spouse is also grateful as PB corrals Warrigal’s obsessions to a level the SO can cope with.
Probably a bit late, but Lizzie/Zoe: I felt like I knew her. On an online forum where posting names and personas, including mine, often hide more than they reveal, Lizzy exuded a gracious, civil, honest decency and directness and gave us glimpses of her daily life which made her PB handle conjure someone we could believe and believe in. Lizzy felt like a beloved, sensible, wise neighbour who had lived a well-examined life*. And in this community, she was exactly that. I often wonder what she would say when reading the board now – her brand of gentle sanity mattered and matters. Not forgetting her dogs, her garden and her birds.
* as did Kay Jay
Other possible black swans:
– a terrorist attack in Australia or a crime that could be beaten up into one.
– a major terrorist incident overseas in a First World country
– major and grave developments in the Ukraine war.
– the arrival of an asylum boat
– a natural or man-made disaster in Australia
– major developments involving China
I endured no more than three minutes of QandA last night. Boring.
Astronomers reveal first image of the black hole at the heart of our galaxy
https://eventhorizontelescope.org/blog/astronomers-reveal-first-image-black-hole-heart-our-galaxy
Minister for Families and Social Services Anne Ruston told ABC News Breakfast that politician’s security officers often operate in “very dangerous circumstances”.
“I think we need to respect the fact that they were doing their job, and there are other mechanisms through which people are able to get access to our leaders.
_____________________
What are these mechanisms? Paying thousands of dollars in donations?
Full page ad in the Adelaide Rupert from Clive Palmer quoting Barnaby Joices opinion of Morrison and also bagging the PMs forcing candidates down NSW parties throats….so better than the 2019 carpet bombing of Labor by Clive
Posters here are becoming more bold in the confidence of their predictions. Mine is that after the election we’ll be deluged by moderate Liberals claiming to have always had sincere reservations about Morrison and his campaign tactics and claiming to have railed against him in the party room.
Of course they’ll deserve sympathy for their failed efforts.
Darren Chester on ABC;
‘its going to be like 151 by-elections’
hmm, events like this seem to happen every few years, maybe there should be a special word for when when that happens.
BK beat me by 3 minutes in the Q&A test:)
Katherine Deves says she will not be to blame if moderate Liberal MPs lose their seats because of her controversial views on transgender children, claiming most Australians agree with her campaign on women’s sport and are more focused on other issues.
In a candid interview, the Liberal candidate for the northern beaches electorate of Warringah repeatedly burst into tears and spoke of “dark moments” she has experienced after her incendiary comments propelled her to become one of the election’s most high-profile candidates.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/not-my-fault-if-moderate-liberals-lose-seats-katherine-deves-20220512-p5akqd.html
SMH front page with Deves pushes Sportsbet out to $3.30 for LNP ( maybe not but that’s my story)
BK
Thanks very much.
95mm in this neck of the woods in Brissie since 9am yesterday Bludgers (following about 100mm the day before). Another 75mm forecast for today. This is just Crazy stuff.
From previous thread…
How lovely to check in and read the tributes to Lizzie.
Surprisingly brought a lump to my throat and proved what a fabulous place this can be.
GG, my initial impression of you years ago was of a ‘Scarface claw, the toughest Tom in town’ but your post today shows a generous soft side.
Bludging too, beautifully said.
I never met Lizzie, but like KayJay, her calm wisdom stays with me.
Vale Lizzie.
Implied probability of winning from betfair.com
As at: May-13 (previous week in brackets)
Coalition majority: 5.3% (12%)
Coalition minority: 23% (21%)
Labor minority: 18% (14%)
Labor majority: 54% (53%)
Average number of seats LNP seat lost to ALP: 6.9 (6.9)
MOE (66% CI): 5.3 (6.6)
Betting markets largely unchanged for the last few days – drifting, waiting for the next poll
