Ahead of the last weekend before the big day, and with nearly a million pre-polls plus over 750,000 returned postals already in the bag:
• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Nika Savva writes that Liberal internal polling shows the primary votes of the six members under challenge from teal independents have “plunged to between the mid-30s and the low 40s”, and that there is “an ever-expanding list of prime Liberal real estate tilting to Labor including Bennelong, Reid, Chisholm, Higgins, Brisbane, Ryan and Leichhardt”. Savva further accuses Scott Morrison of sacrificing these seats in a bid to “harvest votes in the regions and outer suburbs” by reviving the controversy over Warringah candidate Katherine Deves’ comments on transgender issues. According to a “well-connected Liberal” quoted by Savva, the interview on Monday in which Deves recanted her earlier apology was “set up deliberately to resuscitate the issue”.
• I had a piece in Crikey on Wednesday looking at prospects for the Senate race, and in particular for the chamber’s overall balance to tip over in favour of the left. Since the “right”, i.e. the Coalition plus One Nation, won four seats in Queensland in 2019, such an outcome would require four-left, two-right results in two states. That’s unless ACT Senate candidate David Pocock is deemed part of the left and succeeds in ousting Zed Seselja, in which case it comes down to one. However, my reading of the polls is that it’s hard to see in what state the extra seat comes from, although Tasmania, from which there is next to no credible data, cannot be ruled out. More likely is that Nick Xenophon returns and/or the Jacqui Lambie Network wins a second seat, in which case an incoming Labor government will need support from either or both in addition to the Greens to win passage for contested legislation. But there remains a worst case scenario for an incoming Labor government in which the Coalition and One Nation have half the numbers between them. An expanded post on the Senate with a dedicated thread for discussion of the Senate race is something I hope to get around to one of these days.
• The third leaders’ debate of the campaign, hosted by the Seven Network on Wednesday night and moderated by Mark Riley, was rated a clear win for Anthony Albanese by undecided voters gathered by the network in four marginal seats to subject proceedings to a “pub test”. Albanese was deemed to have won by 50% compared with 25% for Scott Morrison in both Macquarie and Solomon, and by 52% in Chisholm, against 35% for Morrison. The two were tied at 44% among the sample in Hasluck.
• A claim by Fiona Martin, the Liberal member for Reid, that her Labor opponent Sally Sitou was only contesting the seat because she had been knocked back for preselection in Fowler has prompted suggestions she had confused her opponent with Tu Le, who was passed over for Labor preselection in the seat to accommodate Kristina Keneally. Martin defended herself by pointing to a news report from 2018 that Sitou was being “touted” as a possible candidate for the corresponding state seat of Cabramatta, sufficient for her to be deemed a “failed state candidate for Cabramatta”. There appears to be no actual suggestion she was ever in prospect for Fowler.
• The Australian reports on data from PowerHousing Australia identifying the 20 seats in which property prices and rents have increased the most over the past two years. Notable in respect to property prices are Gilmore at number one (55.5% higher), Bass at number six (51.7%), Lyons at number eleven (49.0%), Eden-Monaro at number sixteen (47.0%) and Dobell at number nineteen (46.2%). For rents: Robertson at number four (26.7%), Bass at number seventeen (23.9%) and Solomon at number twenty (23.6%).
Yes, Q&A was pretty boring last night. I got the impression that Paul Fletcher was subtly elevating his status, perhaps with the prospect of a run for LOTO.
Anyway, I was driven to peruse his wikipedia page and came across this line:
“Fletcher is one of seven Liberal MPs in the 46th Parliament of Australia who have obtained degrees at an Oxbridge or Ivy League university, the others being Alan Tudge, Angus Taylor, Andrew Laming, Dave Sharma, Greg Hunt and Josh Frydenberg.”
That’s pretty august company, I’d say. In with a shot.
Edit: So I also checked Christian Porter. He went to the LSE. Shoulda made the list.
Wonder if the floods in QLD will influence the vote, reinforcing Morrisons weak points.
There was a muppet here early campaign claiming that the whole exploiting the lives of vunerable kids for votes thing was in fact a geniue and deep felt public concern about fairness in sport.
I’m guessing I missed the retraction and apology
BBill if you are reading..
I don’t contribute much to PBer, more of a reader & damn it your contributions are extranado mucho.
Clive must have something big planned for the last week of the campaign to bring some (sinister) plan to fruition. If not, he’s spent tens of millions just faffing around.
Does someone have the real Leak locked in a closet? I didn’t think he could write the words “Albo’s right” in any context without his head spinning 720 degrees and green ichor spewing forth.
Bullshit Man starting to scrape the bottom of their comfort food barrel.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politicsnow-live-news-billboard-footsoldiers-keep-campaign-on-track/live-coverage/2dd581a0d3b3c83b21efeb4b7820dfd2
Luigi ,
What with Tony Abbott having been to Oxford, ‘august’ is not a word I would use in describing that cohort.
While the Latika Bourke thing evennnntually mentions the mutilation and Nazi comments, I find it dishonest on the whole to set the article up to accept Deves’ framing that criticism of her is disagreement about the sport thing and silencing her views on that, then just mention the real issue a mile down the column and in passing.
An example of PR Guys latest tweet. What this account basically does is repackage a snippet of news. Quite effective.
——-
PRGuy
@PRGuy17
GPs have warned the decline of bulk billing has priced Aussies out of health care and patients are turning to emergency departments. Last week it was revealed the Morrison Government had been recording non-bulk-billed consults as bulk-billed — hiding the crisis.
11:03 PM · May 12, 2022
Q&A – I avoided it, mostly because I can’t stand an hour of Stan Grant and his massive ego. I’d assume Catherine King did well, as she usually does. Paul Fletcher is just a boring mouthpiece for Morrison, I’d agree he probably fancies himself as a future Deputy Liberal leader.
It feels like the LNP have nothing left in the armoury. The Deves story being elevated again is perhaps one last attempt to dog whistle to a presumed “silent majority”, but it hasn’t worked so far and I doubt that’s going to change – it’s a very low priority issue to most voters, and the constant trumpeting of it only plays into teal hands. It will be interesting to see how many teals will be elected and if this has any influence in moving the Liberals closer to the centre or just consolidates them more as a socially conservative party.
Luigi Smith @ Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:51 am
It’s the quiet ones. Fletcher has kept his nose out of major trouble to date, a feat in itself in the Morrison government.
How are the wombat burrows holding up?
Arky @ Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:58 am
Do not expect otherwise from Latika Bourke. The Australian Fourth Estate improved by a very small degree when she departed for Ol’ Blighty.
Steve777 says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:54 am
Clive must have something big planned for the last week of the campaign to bring some (sinister) plan to fruition. If not, he’s spent tens of millions just faffing around.
__________________________________
Balance of power in the Senate?
Felix, Expat, Victoria
Re @PRGuy
As Expat correctly noted, this Twitter account was extremely active in Victoria during the darkest days of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 basically supporting the State Government’s approach to COVID. There was some assumptions that the account was operating out of the office of Premier and Cabinet but it could not be substantiated. Whoever / whatever they are, they seem to have the finger on the pulse of government and appear to be well connected to sources.
Griff
Gotta agree with you on that!
Ukrainian war, a historical point of view:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d21K_csDds
Quasar @ Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:56 am
“Luigi ,
What with Tony Abbott having been to Oxford, ‘august’ is not a word I would use in describing that cohort.”
Surely it was sarcasm? 🙂
I believe Clive and One Nation are trying to be Senate kingmakers, campaigning to grow the pile of disaffected voters and then hoover them up, and probably ultimately merge. Running all these basically fake candidates in the lower house is all about keeping the party in people’s thoughts for the upper house.
Boerwar @ #57 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 7:51 am
This article also explicates another example of Katherine Deves being loose with the truth:
“What with Tony Abbott having been to Oxford, ‘august’ is not a word I would use in describing that cohort.”
If ever these institutions managed to sell themselves as something more than corrupt elite institutions, the world is a much better place now the reality is apparent.
Dr Kevin Bonham
Ask Me Anything (Relevant) On Reddit: 8 pm AEST Sat 14 May
Just an announcement that this Saturday from 8 pm to 9 pm (perhaps later) I will be doing an Ask Me Anything (AMA) on the r/AustralianPolitics subreddit on Reddit. This is a chance for people to bombard me with questions that I will then attempt to answer at warp speed (I believe you need to sign up to participate, but anyone can read it without being signed in). The AMA is in relation to the 2022 federal election and polling.
I’m sure KB would love some interaction
John Black is I think the first pundit to raise the loss of John Alexander’s personal vote as a reason why Bennelong is flipping. Most are just focussing on the Chinese Australian vote. John is almost certainly right.
Betfair has blown out to ALP 1.38/LNP 3.55.
https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
Not that I gamble. Over 5mil on it now. Does anyone know if that’s a lot in a historical context?
poroti @ #106 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:55 am
Because they’re all rich!?! Or, if they actually are wealthy due to their criming, isn’t that removed from them as the proceeds of crime?
Coorey in the AFR bemoaning the fact that Albo is really a “dunderplunken” and that the problem is that the voters are all just fools who don’t understand this. They’ve all got it wrong.
Apparently Morrison has run a very good, disciplined campaign that has remained on message while Albo’s campaign has been gaffe-filled at every turn. Different planet I guess and with credibility shredded I can only imagine Coorey is off to SkyNews sometime soon.
Sceptic @ #123 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:12 am
I’d feel like a goose asking such a smart guy a question. 😀
I remember the first day Lizzie joined PBer.
She was timid & said she didn’t like confrontation. Lizzie had no sooner joined the blog & was attacked by one of the many flame throwers at the time.
A few times she threatened to leave but was encouraged to stay & over time the bullies & abusers either left in the pips or Wm permanently banned them.
I’m no wordsmith but Lizzie became entrenched as a PBer elder.
She was held in high regard is missed by all.
Cronus @ #127 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:14 am
If Albanese is so stoopid, how come he won all the real time debates against Morrison? Must make Morrison even more of a dunderplunken! 😆
When meeting with our local member and Mark Butler , as I mentioned before, and it was pointed out that banks are knocking back loans to GPs to set up practices because with Medicare changes they don’t consider them viable business’.
BeaglieBoy @ #91 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:43 am
So why are the UAP preferencing the Coalition above others?
Felix the Cassowary says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 7:53 am
“I’ll believe Dickson is close when I see Antony Green say it’s close on a Saturday evening. You have to be a very special kind of out-of-touch to lose your seat with a profile like Dutton’s.”
Agreed, and with the type of folk that turned up at Eaton’s Hill on Tuesday night (according to the Guardian report) to hear Paul Murray interview Dutton and their disgraceful abuse of everyone linked to Albo then you can imagine that change is unlikely in this redneck locale.
Dutton may well be one of those last-man-standing types after this election but he’s still very dangerous.
I recently came across an American cartoon showing Mitch McConnell with text something like:
Find something completely unimportant,
Make up some crap about it,
Talk loud and often about it,
Get the apathetic angry about it.
It’s a major part of the Right’s strategy here as well as in the USA. It’s rarely as explicit as it is in the case of TransGate. Does Ms Deeves know she’s a pawn in a bigger game? If so, is must be OK with it.
Dsays:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 6:52 am
What about copyright re: Lord of the rings?
We pondered this when the ALP did Abbott’s Addams Family. Now that was a cracker ad.
_______________________________________
The Abbott Family add – that was funny, it resonated well in the echo chamber but would not have changed a single vote…
The hole in my bucket add goes one step further by putting people off voting coalition because it is that annoying…
I think we need a decent jingle add – there hasn’t been a good one since 1987 – though I preferred Mike Carlton’s Friday News Review Version – “Let’s Stick It Up ‘Em.”
OH one of fifty at the Rudd dinner tonight.
”
Confessionssays:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 4:57 am
I still can’t believe the Liberals haven’t dropped Deves. What an embarrassment, and surely doing more harm to the party in the long term.
If the moderates in those blue ribbon seats do hang on it’ll be in spite of the Liberal campaign not because of it.
”
It appears the basic assumption of Morrison and LIB HQ is that they will hang on in blue ribbon seats but harvest votes outer Suburbs and regional seats. Otherwise I can’t see a reason why they don’t disendorse Deves.
On the eve of 1996 election even John Howard dropped Pauline Hanson for her racists remarks even though it was apparent LNP will win the election.
To be fair (sorry), the rank and file Liberals in NSW did all they could to stop Deves being selected (and it would appear they’re now doing all they can to stop her being elected).
Quasar @ #67 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:15 am
Thank you, Quasar. Gotta walk it like you talk it, I reckon. While I can still do it I will. Our country is too important to neglect. 🙂
“Fletcher is one of seven Liberal MPs in the 46th Parliament of Australia who have obtained degrees at an Oxbridge or Ivy League university, the others being Alan Tudge, Angus Taylor, Andrew Laming, Dave Sharma, Greg Hunt and Josh Frydenberg.”
Part of his schtick is for Tudge to brag about his MBA from Harvard. I told him once “yep an MBA from Harvard, but you still had a role in Robot debt, you mug.” “You have to have one, to be as stupid as that.”
BeaglieBoy @ #90 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 6:43 am
I wonder what democratic process Clive used to choose his candidates?
D
Rudd’s interaction with a Murdoch journo yesterday is being retweeted by US political operatives such as former Republican Rick Wilson.
Wonder if that will be discussed at the dinner. Lol!
Dutton may well be one of those last-man-standing types after this election but he’s still very dangerous.
As any snake in the grass is.
He’s a well-seasoned politician who knows how to push people’s buttons. He didn’t get where he is for no good reason. Even after being voted the worst Health Minister Australia has ever had, he stayed on the front bench going from strength to strength. Even after his failed leadership tilt, he was still there. It shows he knows how to survive and prosper against the odds. He will be Tony Abbott 2.0 if he is the LOTO after the election, you can count on it.
Quasar @ #99 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:50 am
I would like to add that Lizzie was resilient – she managed for several days without power etc after the June storm last year. We were all concerned and relieved when she joined in again.
I think losing her golden retriever was a big blow in the time I followed her comments on the blog. Lovely person that I think we all miss
Bennelong Liberal volunteer (per Confessions):
“Guess how smart I am?”
Mate, there’s no need for quesswork.
Black Swan events suggested so far and my take on them –
Queen dying – She is 96, so kicking the bucket at anytime is possible. But as for her not attending parliament this week, s ahe has been have trouble walking because she is 96 and had a dose of the COVID last year. To open parliament she would have had to have used a wheelchair to get into the house of Lords and up the steps… and then reading a long speech saying what BoJo’s government is up to…. So I can see why she skipped it and let Chuck do the duties. There is no sign that she is actually on deaths door and is will probably live for at least 9 days more.
Ukraine escalating – The biggest escalation that could happen would be the use the of a tactical nuclear weapon. But Russian troops are not in a position to exploit the deploy in an offensive fashion. Nor are the Russian troops in the middle of a rout and nukes need to be used to delay an advance that is threatening to wipe up the Russian army in a matter of days. Again no happening in the next week.
China doing something – They are busy dealing with COVID and not doing a great job of it. They will be too busy for an shenanigans for a fortnight.
North Korea – Who the F$%# knows what is actually going on in the Kim Kingdom? But self-preservation probably precludes an act on the South.
Major terrorist act – One thing that is forgotten about the 911 attacks is that a low-level war at already been happening for 5 years before hand between the CIA and OBL’s forces. There had actually been a warning in July that something was likely to happen. The CIA and allied intelligence organisations for all of their short comings have generally been able to upset major terrorist conspiracies since. If something happens it is likely to be lone wolf attack (or very small wolf pack attack).
There are many other things that can go wrong – Black swan events by their nature are supposed to be unexpected and therefore unpredictable. But the likelihood of any of them is the same as always.
Laughtong
Definitely. Resilient. Grief and loss is not easily managed and dealt with by anyone. That is for sure.
I seem to recall reading articles after the last election of Liberal HQ being annoyed with Morrison because he ignored their advice and just did what he thought was good. Wonder if that is going on this time too.
Worked for Hitler.