Ahead of the last weekend before the big day, and with nearly a million pre-polls plus over 750,000 returned postals already in the bag:
• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Nika Savva writes that Liberal internal polling shows the primary votes of the six members under challenge from teal independents have “plunged to between the mid-30s and the low 40s”, and that there is “an ever-expanding list of prime Liberal real estate tilting to Labor including Bennelong, Reid, Chisholm, Higgins, Brisbane, Ryan and Leichhardt”. Savva further accuses Scott Morrison of sacrificing these seats in a bid to “harvest votes in the regions and outer suburbs” by reviving the controversy over Warringah candidate Katherine Deves’ comments on transgender issues. According to a “well-connected Liberal” quoted by Savva, the interview on Monday in which Deves recanted her earlier apology was “set up deliberately to resuscitate the issue”.
• I had a piece in Crikey on Wednesday looking at prospects for the Senate race, and in particular for the chamber’s overall balance to tip over in favour of the left. Since the “right”, i.e. the Coalition plus One Nation, won four seats in Queensland in 2019, such an outcome would require four-left, two-right results in two states. That’s unless ACT Senate candidate David Pocock is deemed part of the left and succeeds in ousting Zed Seselja, in which case it comes down to one. However, my reading of the polls is that it’s hard to see in what state the extra seat comes from, although Tasmania, from which there is next to no credible data, cannot be ruled out. More likely is that Nick Xenophon returns and/or the Jacqui Lambie Network wins a second seat, in which case an incoming Labor government will need support from either or both in addition to the Greens to win passage for contested legislation. But there remains a worst case scenario for an incoming Labor government in which the Coalition and One Nation have half the numbers between them. An expanded post on the Senate with a dedicated thread for discussion of the Senate race is something I hope to get around to one of these days.
• The third leaders’ debate of the campaign, hosted by the Seven Network on Wednesday night and moderated by Mark Riley, was rated a clear win for Anthony Albanese by undecided voters gathered by the network in four marginal seats to subject proceedings to a “pub test”. Albanese was deemed to have won by 50% compared with 25% for Scott Morrison in both Macquarie and Solomon, and by 52% in Chisholm, against 35% for Morrison. The two were tied at 44% among the sample in Hasluck.
• A claim by Fiona Martin, the Liberal member for Reid, that her Labor opponent Sally Sitou was only contesting the seat because she had been knocked back for preselection in Fowler has prompted suggestions she had confused her opponent with Tu Le, who was passed over for Labor preselection in the seat to accommodate Kristina Keneally. Martin defended herself by pointing to a news report from 2018 that Sitou was being “touted” as a possible candidate for the corresponding state seat of Cabramatta, sufficient for her to be deemed a “failed state candidate for Cabramatta”. There appears to be no actual suggestion she was ever in prospect for Fowler.
• The Australian reports on data from PowerHousing Australia identifying the 20 seats in which property prices and rents have increased the most over the past two years. Notable in respect to property prices are Gilmore at number one (55.5% higher), Bass at number six (51.7%), Lyons at number eleven (49.0%), Eden-Monaro at number sixteen (47.0%) and Dobell at number nineteen (46.2%). For rents: Robertson at number four (26.7%), Bass at number seventeen (23.9%) and Solomon at number twenty (23.6%).
B.S. Fairman
I think any other Liberal as leader would not have comprehensively stuffed up their response to bushfire, pandemic and floods. The Liberals, by picking Morrison, may have won in 2019 but now have a severe case of ‘buyer’s remorse’.
The myth making of 2019 basically made it impossible for anyone to challenge Morrison – it’s really only in 2022 that it started dawning on them that they were not going to win. And by then it was too late.
And they all massively underestimated Albanese which added to their delusion.
B.S. Fairman says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:47 pm
Yes, Keating still had the true believers at the end, but Morrison does not. You get the sense the Liberals & their supporters wish they had changed but nobody wanted to go down with the ship.
—————————
Morrison still has his reactionaries but they might find themselves in for a shock when they discover there isn’t a great reactionary base in the burbs.
Mavis @ #1112 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:19 pm
Give him/us a break Mavis. He’s not even Prime Minister yet. Compare him with past PMs when he’s run his two to three PM terms, if you’re looking for historical perspective.
”If PvO is right, Dutton is lying through his teeth.”
If PVO is correct, Morrison should sack Dutton now rather than the wait for the voters to do it. This is risking relations with our biggest trading partner and drumming up a fake national security scare for political gain. Disgraceful if true (which I surmise to be likely).
Woke it’s not worth thinking about. Nobody in there right mind would believe it
The Morrison Government is trying to create fake black swans…
Dutton is lying through his teeth – the chinese ship was never in australian waters.
Sir Geoffrey Donaldson resigns from the NI assembly before taking his seat indicating the assembly is unlikely to function due to a DUP boycott
Holdenhillbilly says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:02 pm
8 minutes to go in the GF and ALP lead by 4.1. Scomo going the biff on oppo captain Albo. Self inflicted injured players all over the park but emergency player Tudge cannot be found by the assistant coaches or media. CHB Potato Head trying to distract the maggots by pointing out a chinese sub 400ks off shore. Fried-in-a-berg and other Libs also confusing fans, umps and other players by changing their blue jumpers to teal at 3/4 time. Labor solidly at $1.30 Coalition $4.15 on Sportbet.
______________
You missed the umpires awarding dubious free kicks to the Scummo team and they fumble or shoot wide of the posts
Mexican – They are only with him now as they are chained to him. They won’t be making ScoMo the musical.
Tom:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:57 pm
[‘I hope Dutton wins – just. I want to see the ALP team do him slowly. Watching him squirm will be a highlight of the next couple of years ‘]
Yes, but I do regret the intense dislike I have for this man. Imagine his behaviour when he’s doing un-nice.
This is one for the PB lawyers..
The NSW Supreme Court has issued an extraordinary order requiring a major media company to hand over copies of an upcoming television program and newspaper investigation to an interested party before the content has been published or even completed.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/court-issues-extraordinary-order-for-herald-the-age-and-60-minutes-to-hand-over-draft-story-20220513-p5al9v.html
Surely this is a mad decision
Perhaps Scott ‘Bulldozer’ Morrison aspires to become the much nicer Scott Steamshovel.
poroti @ #1144 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:59 pm
PVO named it and I think it’s in the ABC article or Dept. of Defence rebuttal.
Nearly jumped on Labor when the price blew out well above $2 post-gaffe. Operative word being “nearly”. Damn. Still some attractive odds in the various individual seats.
‘Bulldozer’ has a silent ‘Y’.
I hope Dutton wins – just. I want to see the ALP team do him slowly. Watching him squirm will be a highlight of the next couple of years
Screw that. Let’s hope the voters of Dickson just punt him and he can be forgotten. He deserves nothing more.
B.S. Fairman says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:07 pm
Mexican – They are only with him now as they are chained to him. They won’t be making ScoMo the musical.
—————-
The reactionaries don’t strike me as the most loyal bunch and Keating books still sell so his base is still there.
The Chinese Boat is doing what they always do; they are engaged in electronic surveillance. Park a boat with some detection equipment there and listen in to the radio transmission, study the radar patterns… The US has boats like that up in the Arctic spying on the Russian subs and off the coasts of China; or they fly planes that do the same thing. There is nothing too abnormal about it.
There were always Soviet “trawlers” in the English channel and near Guam in the Cold War. Never seemed to do any fishing however.
Can Morrison bring the election forward – to, you know, save furniture?
Like, say, tomorrow?
He wouldn’t have to bother with a campaign launch and the Party would save lots of money…just trying to make a helpful suggestion.
“If the Chinese warships are in International waters and they’re not fishing or otherwise extracting resources then of course there’s nothing we can or should do apart from keeping an eye on them at an appropriate distance.
Next beat-up…”
No, no, no, no, no steve777……..Just keep it on a low simmer and track the ship and see if its actually heading north to transit Torres Straight on its way to a Goodwill Visit to the Solomon Islands. Could it get there in 9 days?? 🙂
Late Riser, I’ll try and make a video or a series of screenshots that I can post in time for the first pages of the next thread.
Mavis @ #1161 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 9:09 pm
I have contempt for such people, based on his actions and intentions, not because he’s a Lib and I believe he has well and truly earned that contempt.
@ Oakeshott Country
Meant to add to the “quiz” last evening re. Communist Local Government.
The North Queensland Labor Party (known as the Hermit Park Labor Party before 1949 and the North Queensland Party after 1974) held a majority within the Townsville council from 1943 to 1949, having formed a coalition with local Communist councillors such as Fred Paterson until 1946.
The party was formed when the Australian Labor Party in Queensland expelled its branch in Hermit Park, Townsville and the latter’s founder, Tom Aikens, for Soviet sympathies.
Aikens was elected for the Electoral district of Mundingburra in the 1944 Queensland state election and would serve in the state parliament for the next 33 years.
He consistently voted against the then Labor State Government until 1957 and then with the Country Party until his defeat by Labor’s “Sweat Rag” Alex Wilson in 1977.
Aikens earned the title “Tory Tom” and my Grandad was fond of throwing rotten duck eggs at him during his stump speeches. Grandad was a pretty mean cricketer and apparently had the best throwing arm in the district.
Running a Turkey and Duck farming business he always had access t0 prime rotten eggs.
“The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club”
Snappy but needs more description. Show, don’t tell.
Covid seems to be taking off again, albeit a much milder variant now. There were nearly 55,000 new cases in Australia yesterday, about 1/500 of the population. About 6.5 million Australians (one in four) are now reported to have been infected. So pretty much every family and workplace.
https://covidlive.com.au/
The long term consequences, especially in relation to “long Covid”, are unknown. Is there a problem? Maybe there is, maybe it’s serious, or maybe it’s now just a bad flu. Whatever, there seems to be a general agreement to ignore it.
Sir Jeffrey resigns.
More likely because of the fear of a Westminster Lagan valley by election.
I guess we’ll know before Christmas if the unionist veto is still a thing in NI.
OC
The DUP will refuse to support a speaker, meaning the assembly cannot function. Donaldson has made it clear; there will either be power sharing or the protocol, but not both. Time for the UK government to stop talking and start walking away from the protocol.
Warrigal at 9.21
I would have thought the proposed club name is fairly self-explanatory.
There remains the question of decision-making process viz-a-vis adopting said club name.
Are we an autonomous collective or an anarcho-syndicalist commune?
Donaldson is right to resign and to be in Westminster. As there will be no Stormont, the action will be in London and it is right that he continues to be there to push for the taring up of the protocol. Emma Little Pengelly will take his place.
Snappy Tom says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:26 pm
Warrigal at 9.21
I would have thought the proposed club name is fairly self-explanatory.
There remains the question of decision-making process viz-a-vis adopting said club name.
Are we an autonomous collective or an anarcho-syndicalist commune?
中华人民共和国
Depends how pissed we are and what we are drinking.
We are fairly clear that strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government, and that supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses and not from some farcical aquatic ceremony off the coast of, say, Exmouth.
You’re right, it’s implicit in the name. Mea culpa.
imacca – 916pm
And stop in at their friendly port in Darwin on the way!
Back from prepoll and getting things ready for more booths opening tomorrow. The wannabe Nationals leader was very stony faced tonight handing out.
Piqued my interest on the possibilities of what was going through his head. Perhaps it’s not seeming like it’s situation normal. Whilst he has an awful lot of support (obviously) there’s a lot of detractors around here and that also covers conservative voters I’ve talked to.
Being wearing my Jeffreson t shirt out and about on the streets. Lots of comments “you’re brave”. My innocent (haha) reply is “oh I’m from the city where democracy is a close run thing. Riverina misses out because it’s not”.
Had some interesting conversations with that response. Really wish people lifted their heads up for 5 mins to see the difference between where you live in Australia and how you miss out compared to marginal seats.
As much as the idea of the seemingly unelectable Dutton as OL might seem tempting, I would like to see the voters of Dixon send him on his way. Many of us thought once that Abbott was unelectable too, and under different circumstances he should have been, but he became Prime Minister. Dutton would be far, far worse than Abbott imho. I want him out of Australian politics.
Massive rhymes with 96 and getting more harmonic every day.
Plenty of differences of course, but the miracle win against a big agenda to massive bust against a non threatening small target with senior government experience thing is undeniable.
Like Keating, Scomo (2.0) is THE issue. All the old magic that worked so well last time just makes things worse this time. Doesn’t matter what you throw at the LOTO, nothing sticks, because the voters have decided long ago that the PM has got to go.
Sure the rusted ons and even the media will claim it’s not decided, because they’re in a bubble and/or they got burnt last time. It also helps to try and maintain interest. But the campaign does little more than funnel the disengaged into the same mindset as the majority had already reached.
In the 07 campaign I think Howard saved a bit of furniture. In 96 though I think the longer the campaign went the more determined to just be rid of Keating the electorate became. It really seems the same dynamic is at play. Morrison really can’t buy a trick because there just aren’t enough people left that are prepared to give him another chance.
Matt 31, should dup+tuv with 28.8% of the seats block an assembly executive ?
When the reverend paisley was vetoing stuff he spoke for 50-60%
In terms of the seven stages of grief is Coorey’s piece the anger or depression stage?
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-averages-a-gaffe-a-week-voters-don-t-seem-to-care-20220512-p5akn1
And I note not a single positive reflection on the ALP campaign. Coorey is just an LNP hack.
ItzaDream:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:04 pm
[‘Give him/us a break Mavis. He’s not even Prime Minister yet. Compare him with past PMs when he’s run his two to three PM terms, if you’re looking for historical perspective.’]
You’re missing my point, which is the circumstances under which Whitlam and Hawke came to power – charisma & it was time. Thus in a fashion, if Labor gets up, Albanese’s feat may exceed his predecessors, both the aforementioned facing far lesser opponents than Morrison. Anyway, it’s goodnight from him.
“I want him out of Australian politics.”
Don’t live in Dickson, but donated to Ali France’s campaign. Here’s hoping.
Anthony Albanese has suffered a fall in his approval ratings following gaffes over the NDIS and economic concerns over his support for a 5.1 per cent rise to the minimum wage, with popular support for Labor also dropping with one week to go before the election.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted ahead of Scott Morrison’s campaign launch on Sunday shows the primary vote contest tightening over the past week, but Labor still leading comfortably with a two-party-preferred lead of 54 to 46.
While the Coalition’s primary vote remains at a low 35 per cent, Labor’s has fallen back a point to 38 per cent, suggesting momentum for Mr Albanese may have stalled in the final weeks of the campaign.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-fumbling-albanese-takes-a-knock-but-labor-still-ahead/news-story/d73e7f273507f17b30a4c3206739d12f
Talk about polishing the turd, Simon Benson spinning a 54-46 stable lead for Labor as a failure for Albo
The only party to make gains was Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which rose a point to 6 per cent. This is almost double the level of support for the conservative minor party at the 2019 election. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party fell a point to 3 per cent, despite an estimated $100m advertising budget. The Greens remained on 11 per cent, consistent with their result at the last election, while the vote for independents and other minor parties rose a point to 7 per cent.
In the head-to-head contest, Mr Morrison leads his rival as the better prime minister 43 per cent to 42 per cent, after dropping a point on the previous survey.
This margin has narrowed over the course of the campaign, with Mr Morrison enjoying a nine-point lead over Mr Albanese in mid to late April.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-fumbling-albanese-takes-a-knock-but-labor-still-ahead/news-story/d73e7f273507f17b30a4c3206739d12f
sprocket_ says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 9:36 pm
Talk about polishing the turd, Simon Benson spinning a 54-46 stable lead for Labor as a failure for Albo
中华人民共和国
Now only one point in preferred PM
Steve777 at 9:04 pm
SfM sacking someone for lying . We’d need one of those very long German words to adequately describe that 🙂
The reactionaries don’t strike me as the most loyal bunch and Keating books still sell so his base is still there.
Labor seeks government to do stuff.
The Libs seek government to prevent Labor doing stuff.
Keating will always be a Labor hero because he did some pretty significant stuff.
Liberal hero ranks are purely based on time keeping Labor out of power. Morrison made an excellent start, but if as it appears he suffers a huge loss and sets Labor up for a significant period of government, then he’ll be reviled like McMahon.
A bit odd they are putting NewsPoll out on a Friday night?
Don’t want to rain in ScoMo’s parade with his Sunday ‘campaign launch LOL’ with a dud poll. How pathetic is Murdoch
Well, stalling with at 54-46 lead is the new failure for the RWNJs
HT Leroy..
#Newspoll TPP L/NP 46 (0) ALP 54 (0)
Primary L/NP 35 (0) ALP 38 (-1) GRN 11 (0) ON 6 (+1) UAP 3 (-1) OTH 7 (+1) theaustralian.com.au/nation/politic… ($) #auspol #ausvotes