Ahead of the last weekend before the big day, and with nearly a million pre-polls plus over 750,000 returned postals already in the bag:
• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Nika Savva writes that Liberal internal polling shows the primary votes of the six members under challenge from teal independents have “plunged to between the mid-30s and the low 40s”, and that there is “an ever-expanding list of prime Liberal real estate tilting to Labor including Bennelong, Reid, Chisholm, Higgins, Brisbane, Ryan and Leichhardt”. Savva further accuses Scott Morrison of sacrificing these seats in a bid to “harvest votes in the regions and outer suburbs” by reviving the controversy over Warringah candidate Katherine Deves’ comments on transgender issues. According to a “well-connected Liberal” quoted by Savva, the interview on Monday in which Deves recanted her earlier apology was “set up deliberately to resuscitate the issue”.
• I had a piece in Crikey on Wednesday looking at prospects for the Senate race, and in particular for the chamber’s overall balance to tip over in favour of the left. Since the “right”, i.e. the Coalition plus One Nation, won four seats in Queensland in 2019, such an outcome would require four-left, two-right results in two states. That’s unless ACT Senate candidate David Pocock is deemed part of the left and succeeds in ousting Zed Seselja, in which case it comes down to one. However, my reading of the polls is that it’s hard to see in what state the extra seat comes from, although Tasmania, from which there is next to no credible data, cannot be ruled out. More likely is that Nick Xenophon returns and/or the Jacqui Lambie Network wins a second seat, in which case an incoming Labor government will need support from either or both in addition to the Greens to win passage for contested legislation. But there remains a worst case scenario for an incoming Labor government in which the Coalition and One Nation have half the numbers between them. An expanded post on the Senate with a dedicated thread for discussion of the Senate race is something I hope to get around to one of these days.
• The third leaders’ debate of the campaign, hosted by the Seven Network on Wednesday night and moderated by Mark Riley, was rated a clear win for Anthony Albanese by undecided voters gathered by the network in four marginal seats to subject proceedings to a “pub test”. Albanese was deemed to have won by 50% compared with 25% for Scott Morrison in both Macquarie and Solomon, and by 52% in Chisholm, against 35% for Morrison. The two were tied at 44% among the sample in Hasluck.
• A claim by Fiona Martin, the Liberal member for Reid, that her Labor opponent Sally Sitou was only contesting the seat because she had been knocked back for preselection in Fowler has prompted suggestions she had confused her opponent with Tu Le, who was passed over for Labor preselection in the seat to accommodate Kristina Keneally. Martin defended herself by pointing to a news report from 2018 that Sitou was being “touted” as a possible candidate for the corresponding state seat of Cabramatta, sufficient for her to be deemed a “failed state candidate for Cabramatta”. There appears to be no actual suggestion she was ever in prospect for Fowler.
• The Australian reports on data from PowerHousing Australia identifying the 20 seats in which property prices and rents have increased the most over the past two years. Notable in respect to property prices are Gilmore at number one (55.5% higher), Bass at number six (51.7%), Lyons at number eleven (49.0%), Eden-Monaro at number sixteen (47.0%) and Dobell at number nineteen (46.2%). For rents: Robertson at number four (26.7%), Bass at number seventeen (23.9%) and Solomon at number twenty (23.6%).
leftieBrawler @ #1092 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:08 pm
No. Booth Captains are supposed to be the sober and responsible ones on the day. But if you want to get some of your volunteers into them, go for it!
Pi @ #1096 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:10 pm
How about Coercive Control tendencies?
“C@tmomma says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:07 pm
Historyintime @ #1073 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 7:53 pm
Albo is not authentic.
Trying out for a job as a comedian after the election?”
Good luck to History, the number of unemployed Liberal comedians looking for a job after the election is going to over-saturate the field….
But hey: One in the morning, one in the afternoon… looking for work will make them free.
”
Bystandersays:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:03 pm
Another talking head on Sky tosses in the towel. Cory Bernadi says if he was a betting man he would be backing Labor at this stage.
”
Cory
FYI, Betting man is backing Labor at this stage . 🙂
Pi at 8.04
Albo was Infrastructure Minister 07-13, Deputy PM 13.
The lamestream media are not blind to this, or to his impeccable record in delivering $75bn of projects on time, on budget and with no adverse audit office reports. He was by any measure, an outstanding minister.
The lamestream media have chosen to not mention this as part of their contribution towards the Coalition’s re-election bid.
IF (no assumptions) Labor wins, the bastardry of the media will be another factor in making it such a sweet night.
The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club should toast the ill health of the lamestream media hard and often in the wake of such a (possible – no assumptions) victory.
“Here’s to pissing on Paul Murray!” etc etc…
Hi D&M,
Great to see you posting and look forward to catching up at the next Sydney PB get together.
Lol C@tmomma. Ill still be sober on the day- night a somewhat different story though !
It would be wise for Labor to get some truth in media laws on the books asap. Sky /fox news will turn ferrel quickl
”
Pisays:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:04 pm
I can’t believe that people are still trying to downplay Albanese. The guy is a genuine heavy-weight negotiator and policy implementer. He’s not joking when he says that the business leaders know who he is and can recognize he gets the brief. He was infrastructure minister from 2013-2016, and deputy prime-minister. Why would anyone think that this guy doesn’t know how to do this job?
A real blind-spot in the media really. They thought that just because they didn’t know him, that it meant he didn’t know how to do the job. Albanese is probably the most qualified ALP candidate that Australia has ever had that would be put up to change government since WW2? Whitlam was a brilliant reformist government. Hawke was known, but was appointed weeks before the election. Rudd was attacked on his inexperience vs Howard, but zero actual government portfolios. Legend IMO.
Albanese has had significant portfolios and has gone through it with everyone that has worked with him seeing him as a guy that gets shit done
”
You missed Menzies. 🙂
He was PM in a previous Conservative government. 🙂
The thing is 2 ex-PMs who were Ministers in previous government lead long-term governments. Menzies andHoward.
Just had 3 Palmer ads in the one ad break. He has more money than sense
leftieBrawler @ #1105 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:15 pm
Sober, as in level-headed. 🙂
Pi:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:04 pm
[‘I can’t believe that people are still trying to downplay Albanese.’]
Not at all; just putting things into historical perspective. Albanese has done extremely well but he’s not a Whitlam, a Hawke. Perhaps he (Albanese) is what’s needed in these very uncertain times?
leftieBrawler
Remember it is the guy who would normally vote Liberal that you want to vote Labor this time.
Do not look like a rabble, be polite, help where you can. Polar neck jumpers.
I am getting a 1996 vibe about this election. In 1996, there was a sense within some of the electorate that the government was in the pocket of special interests. After years of talk of multiculturalism and land rights, the special interests were Aborigines and ethnic communities; hence why the Liberals successfully used the slogan “For all of us”. Howard didn’t revive his One Australia policy for the ’80s because he didn’t need too.
One thing people forget is that a record number of independents were elected at that election (five). Most were dis-endorsed Liberals including Hanson who Howard successfully used as a dog whistle.
Ohh Brian Boru
I visited your redoubt in Cashel recently, without knowing what I gem I would find in that lovely village
I took my mother around all her old haunts in Cork, but we had to fly into Dublin – winter, so the Bordeaux – Cork flights were not available.
So, we flew into Dublin, stayed a night in nearby Swords, then headed off for a half-way point to Cork. Cashel seemed to fit the bill, and as well as a full Irish breakfast in a very comfortable B&B, we got to ascend the Rock of Cashel, the redoubt of Brian Boru, around the beginning of the Middle Ages, circa 1000 AD. His grandson gave the castle on the rock to the church, and it was a religious site until circa 1700 when the Anglican Archbishop insist that the roof be takeoff the medieval church, so that weather would eventually destroy it.
Happily, sense prevailed only 180 years later, and in circa 1880, the buildings on the Rock of Cashel became one of the first International “World Heritage” listed sites, stopping the further decline the site, and leading to the gradual restoration.
A lovely photo showing how the new consensus beats the old enmities was that of QEII on a visit to Cashel Rock in the 1980s.
Measured feedback. I’ll print it but save for the evening
Felix the Cassowary @ #1080 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 7:57 pm
Do you know of a link (youtube or static) for “deleting it”?
@ Snappy Tom
The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club should toast the ill health of the lamestream media hard and often in the wake of such a (possible – no assumptions) victory.
“Here’s to pissing on Paul Murray!” etc etc…
中华人民共和国
Cobber you are a genius! “The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club” I for one think is the perfect solution to our naming conundrum.
As for Pissing on Paul Murray – I better get more Grog, that’s a big body to Piss on.
BREAKING: Elon Musk says Twitter deal is temporarily on hold pending details that ‘spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users’
Oh FFS 🙁
British Electoral Politics
@electpoliticsuk
NEW:
The Wakefield Constituency Labour Party’s executive committee has resigned en masse over the party’s selection of potential candidates for the Wakefield by-election.
11:03 AM · May 13, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
Seems hard for Morrison to make much of the Chinese surveillance ship when he it proves he can’t stop the boats. It highlights his multiple defence failures, particularly in relation to The Solomons, submarines and warships. This looks very desperate to me, death throws in other words.
Upnorth at 8.26
I hope you also appreciate that the proposed name includes 8 hyphens.
Looks like the Dutton/Morrison scare tactic on (Xi’s) boats isn’t working well at the moment going by the betting markets.
By the way, that dirt file must really have been something…………crickets chirping.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1119 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:26 pm
That sounds like the precursor to walking away
“Pissheads” on PB? Surely not…
How much have Tech stocks gone down since Elon’s bid? He is going to have enough on his plate with Tesla.
Mark Latham aired the supposed dirt file on Albo in his Facebook page yesterday. It’s so ridiculous and outrageous the MSM won’t touch it- particularly in light of his recent Abo drama
Snappy Tom says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:32 pm
Upnorth at 8.26
I hope you also appreciate that the proposed name includes 8 hyphens.
中华人民共和国
My oath cobber Fire-Fox and his Vaping mates will feel welcomed. We are all inclusive.
If the Chinese warships are in International waters and they’re not fishing or otherwise extracting resources then of course there’s nothing we can or should do apart from keeping an eye on them at an appropriate distance.
Next beat-up…
citizen
Gamblers can smell desperation.
And in sporting parlance it’s too late to sack the coach.
‘My new game plan’ doesn’t cut it this close to the Grand Final!
Bluey has asked me to bring this to the human bludgers’ attention. From Word Hippo:
‘The noun teal can be countable or uncountable. In more general, commonly used, contexts, the plural form will also be teal.’
It does seem very 1996. A government that has run its race lead by an unpopular leader but opposed by a bland opposition leader not offering too much, just riding on wave of incumbent unpopularity.
ScoMo is going to get his arse kicked, just like Keating all those years ago. Difference is Keating remains a respected figure whereas ScoMo is just a lightweight marketing man who will disappear quickly from sight, a dirty smudge on the undies of history.
leftieBrawler says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:42 pm
Mark Latham aired the supposed dirt file on Albo in his Facebook page yesterday. It’s so ridiculous and outrageous the MSM won’t touch it- particularly in light of his recent Abo drama
中华人民共和国
The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club will piss on Latham and Murray!
Yes, Keating still had the true believers at the end, but Morrison does not. You get the sense the Liberals & their supporters wish they had changed but nobody wanted to go down with the ship.
There is a fact issue. PvO stated that the chinese ship had come no closer than 400km from the coast line. So it was not in Australian waters and had never been in Australian waters. The EEZ is 370km from the coastline.
1. If PvO has it right, the Chinese ship was never in Australian waters.
2. Even if it was inside the EEZ the ship has full rights under the Law of the Sea to transit.
3. Australian full sovereign territorial waters are 12 nautical miles from the coast. (Bludgers would recall that an Australian naval ship actually transgressed and entered Indonesian waters and the captain got the sack.) It seems rather obvious that it was never inside Australian sovereign waters.
4. The notion that the Chinese ship threatened something a spy base from over 400km away is preposterous.
If PvO is right, Dutton is lying through his teeth.
The truth is catching up with Dutton pretty quickly.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/13/its-unprecedented-for-dutton-to-label-a-chinese-spy-ship-sailing-outside-australias-territory-an-act-of-aggression
But the Australian is still reporting it as if Dutton is not lying and as if Dutton is not totally wrong about the so-called Chinese ‘aggression’.
Rocket Rocket:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:43 pm
[‘Gamblers can smell desperation.
And in sporting parlance it’s too late to sack the coach.
‘My new game plan’ doesn’t cut it this close to the Grand Final!’]
Apt metaphor.
Not a ‘Bulldozer’ but the bustard IS however a Bully and a Dozer(see pandemic and bushfires etc Zzzzz)
I think smirko thought he could have a 6 week campaign, catch up in 5 weeks and then launch the campaign strong into the 6th.
As it is – they are looking deseperate and they may end up with less than 55 seats – who will show up in the next 7 days – smirko 1. or 2.0 or is there smirko 1.5?
I’m not a betting person but 1.28 on Labor in Sportsbet at the moment looks a rather good investment for a payout when the GG swears in a new government.
It certainly beats 1.01 on each of the three ACT seats.
Mavis says:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:52 pm
Rocket Rocket:
Friday, May 13, 2022 at 8:43 pm
[‘Gamblers can smell desperation.
And in sporting parlance it’s too late to sack the coach.
‘My new game plan’ doesn’t cut it this close to the Grand Final!’]
Apt metaphor.
_________________
The Grand final?? FFS, this is the final quarter, 6 goals down and half the team is either off injured of hiding in the dressing rooms
Mavis @ #1086 Friday, May 13th, 2022 – 8:05 pm
I hope Dutton wins – just. I want to see the ALP team do him slowly. Watching him squirm will be a highlight of the next couple of years 🙂
Do we know the name of the ship ? Chances are it’s tracker will be on and we’d see how close it got .
The Libs, Nats/Cnts are terrified of Albo becoming PM for all the right reasons that threaten them to be reduced to oppositions status for a hawke/Howard length of time.
They know Albo is a likeable, genuine down to earth Aussie. When they see the media or the LNP try to pincer him in a gotcha moment it only adds to his every man appeal.
The so called gaffes where journos needed their phones open to pull up policy facts and figures in an attempt to bring him down have failed miserably.
He will be the benign, jolly, grand old father of the nation who will grant executive level autonomy to his ministers and be the figurehead of a competent cabinet.
This style worked very well for Reagan and Hawke- it will work well for Albo to
Dutton could even have some issues with ficac.
Tom at 8:57 pm
Il Dutto should befull time at inquiries into how so many $Billions were flushed down the drain in Defence etc and how poor a value we got for our taxpayer’s ‘hard earned’ money .
Cronus
The dirt file was released. Did you miss it? Apparently Albo is a loose unit. File closed.
8 minutes to go in the GF and ALP lead by 4.1. Scomo going the biff on oppo captain Albo. Self inflicted injured players all over the park but emergency player Tudge cannot be found by the assistant coaches or media. CHB Potato Head trying to distract the maggots by pointing out a chinese sub 400ks off shore. Fried-in-a-berg and other Libs also confusing fans, umps and other players by changing their blue jumpers to teal at 3/4 time. Labor solidly at $1.30 Coalition $4.15 on Sportbet.
I know who I would rather listen to music/have a beer with – albo can dj, I’ll bring the drinks.
What was the supposed dirt file?