The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:
• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).
• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).
• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).
• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).
Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.
The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).
Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.
“ I agree, even though I was shattered the Starks won. Aegon Targaryen (Jon Snow) and Daenerys Targaryen should have ended the show sharing the Iron Throne.”
Seasons 7 & 8: truly shite. The laziness of the show runners and George RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Martin are equally to blame.
When I finished book 5 it was finally become in clear that the whole Game was a long play of revenge driven by the Prince of Dorne to avenge the death of his sister (?) by The Mountain 20 years prior. Putting a Targaryen (and there were actually three possible candidates, including the most likely one that didn’t even are into the TV series) was his main objective (unfortunately – having slowly built up all the plot elements for the Dorne angle in seasons 3-5, the feckless show runners then killed off all the important Dornish characters, just like that in season 6, FFS!).
There was a hint in the books however that ‘the north’ would obtain its independence, with the Wall effectively collapsing (once the power of the Night King was ended) and the ‘free folk’ being able to farm ‘the gift’ south of the wall freely – but observing some notional fealty to the House of Stark (who in turn would acknowledge a notional fealty to House Targaryen and the Iron Throne – which is one plot element that actually did come about in the TV series).
I’m fed up with that “Hole in the Bucket” ad that’s being run incessantly, so I have composed a rebuttal:
Is he fleeing the country
Oh Scomo, oh Scomo?
From a natural disaster?
It’s not Scomo’s job!
Is the bush all on fire?
Or the towns underwater?
Or a global pandemic?
It’s not Scomo’s job!
@freya
Well, Jean Chretien….
Imagine a first home buyer raiding their super to rustle up a deposit and competing with boomer retirees who are now downsizing having sold a mansion and who have 40 odd years worth of equity to splurge on the home they’re all competing for.
Fulvio:
You’re supposed to be the site’s comedian. I forgive your lapse.
nath @ #934 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:07 pm
Your putrid anti-semitism isn’t acceptable.
And let me be clear, that’s what it is. You can invoke a Jewish description of him as a Melbourne Jew, but the difference is between describing him as it, and referring to him by it.
Let me demonstrate the difference. Suppose you wanted to refer to Tim Wilson vs Zoe Daniel, and you said it was “The people of Goldstein are rejecting a gay guy in favour of an eco-friendly politician”. Tell me, how do you think people would react? I think you’d find that characterising him as a “gay guy” in this context would be viewed as quite homophobic – after all, it’s not relevant to the situation, and choosing that characterisation over the more relevant ones strongly implies that you consider it to be a notably negative characteristic.
It’s the same, here. You’re not just referring to him, you’re condemning him specifically for being Jewish.
You could have said “a Melbourne Investment Banker”, or “a Melbourne Politician”, or something like that. These are things that Frydenberg chose to be.
It’s unacceptable, and any attempt at justifying your decision is just digging the hole further. Just acknowledge that it was a poor choice of words, apologise, and move on.
nathsays:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 7:34 pm
Sharri Markson doing Albo is anti-Israel/pro-Palestinian job.
Albo kinda supports terrorism.
____
Nath retract that statement. You know its BS and frankly beneath even you to say something so offensive.
In trying to assess conventions, you should always ask how can they be enforced? Of course none of them can be enforced by courts – or else they would be laws. But it’s generally obvious that a convention which will stand is one that can be enforced using laws that actually exist or appeals to voters.
In the Victorian era, they said that there was a convention that the House of Lords wouldn’t reject a budget. The Lords did reject a budget in 1911, and lost their power to do it ever again as a consequence. But this proves the convention was enforceable, and the convention only existed because if it the power was used, the power would stop existing. It was no surprise that if the electors and the Lords disagreed, the monarch would appoint Lords on the advice of the Prime Minister, until the Prime Minister had a satisfactory majority in the Lords. It had been written about before the fact, decades before.
Most Westminster conventions are in fact like that – they only exist because they can be enforced through painful and expensive processes and it’s easier just to follow the convention than force the battle. Whitlam lost because he aped Westminster when others were playing by the rules of the game. If he had used the full force of the Australian constitution, he would have humiliated Kerr and Fraser, and they would have gone down in history much worse than they have (the Labor perspective would have been the only acceptable perspective). Part of the reason it’s never been rehashed is because in retrospect the rules are obvious (“if you get fired, don’t just go and eat steak for lunch” being the most important).
The constitution in fact mentions parties. It was amended after the Dismissal to ensure that if a candidate presents themselves as endorsed by a party and the party endorses them, then a replacement senator has to be a member by that party in order to fill a vacancy. I gather in those days party names weren’t mentioned on the ballot, and the constitution refers to matters of fact rather than registration, so I sometimes wonder what would happen if a Senate candidate in an “unwinnable” position was disendorsed during the campaign and the party unexpectedly won a larger quota than they’d hoped for.
The constitution quite deliberately doesn’t mention anything about the largest party in the House of Representatives choosing the prime minister, or who chooses the LOTO, partly because the people who wrote it were accustomed to conducting parliamentary politics in the absence of parties. Partly also they considered codifying more of it than they did, but decided it should be flexible enough to respond to changing politics while still being rule-based. In those days there was often just the government, the opposition and the crossbench – something like an implicit motion of confidence based on where people were sitting (crossbenchers being not opposed to the government implicitly having confidence). There might be parties that occupy seats in one part of parliament along with non-party members, which I guess is just the idea of ad hoc coalitions on both the government and opposition side. If we had retained that system perfectly, then probably Wilkie and Bandt would have sat on the opposition benches even though they weren’t part of the Labor party.
In principle the LOTO should be the member of the opposition who is most likely to gain the confidence of the house and form a government. The only circumstance in which an anyone other than the leader of the Liberals, Labor or the Nationals could hold the LOTO position is if they were capable of demonstrating an actual threat to the traditional parties in electoral contexts by a strong extra-parliamentary presence building support amongst voters. This sort of infrastructure has traditionally been associated with a party, and I think in that circumstance it would be very hard to be credible as genuinely independent. Maybe in a couple of cycles, if some seats become “safe independent” but become competitions between different independents. (I think the chances of this are much greater than you do, without particularly expecting it to happen before I die.)
sprocket_ @ #1077 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 5:40 pm
The fixation on Israel/Palestine politics in Australia has me perplexed. There is no question that it is a terrible conflict and all illegal & unlawful acts need to stop. What I do not understand, despite an active interest in Australian politics spaning my entire adult life, is that the (alleged) support of one side or ther other in this dispute can have any impat whatsoever on current Australian domestic politics.
For the avoidance of any doubt, I do not want to debate any actual, alleged or purported right or wrong by any party in this dispute.
Sharri Markson is not an unbiased journalist she is mainly a Murdoch mouth piece and an Israeli government propagandist .
Interesting sections on the ABC SA 7pm news.
One story is about the independent running in Grey (covering 80%of the state- normally a very safe Lib seat) where a previous Lib MP is backing her against the longstanding Lib incumbent.
Another was about a lawyer punished by the govt for findings in the AAT that too often went against the government. Jo Dyer (independent candidate for Boothby) appeared quite prominently supporting him.
More time spent on these than on Scomo’s launch/policies.
There were other political stories, including state Labor promising more hospital beds etc…
NB I also watched the Ch7 news which was also rather “light” and somewhat critical of Scomos’s launch/announcements.
Sandman , it’s nath. He is a piece of shit, and should never have been allowed back here.
Newsltd hack Sharri Markson is getting more notice on here than from the low number of coalition supporters who bother watch the propaganda .
let that sink in
Questioning whether or not I should invest in House of the Dragon.
Sharri’s dad was a very interesting character back in the late 70’s. Met the pompous twit a number of times.
Albo was head of the Labor Club at Sydney Uni when I was studying history there, not from the Trots or Spartacists by any means.. He was conciliatory rather than an attention seeker, from memory. (I wasn’t a member). Pro-Palestinian sentiment was pretty strong on campus but I doubthe expressed any extreme views
Young Libs probably see it differently. Their head, one Heyward – an unintentional self-parody of a born-to-rule – , had some thuggish mates who beat and hospitalised Albo, but Albanese was able to identify his attackers from his bed. Exit Heyward in disgrace. They’d assumed it would could be down to Tom Domican, a standover causing havoc in Labor branches around Newtown. Big scoop in Honi Soit back around 1983(?)
Q: Imagine a first home buyer raiding their super to rustle up a deposit and competing with boomer retirees who are now downsizing having sold a mansion and who have 40 odd years worth of equity to splurge on the home they’re all competing for.
Yes, and add in investors backed with tax-payer dollars and a few foreign buyers and you are back at square one!
The average Australian in the street does not give a damn about either Israel or Palestine.
GlenO:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 7:57 pm
Please stop being dramatic. It’s not in Flavio’s nature to be deliberately offensive – settle!
More Australians’ now are in Poverty than when the Tories came to power. Simple measure. Kick them out.
“Australians could be forgiven for thinking the Abbott government of 2013 is completely different to the one headed by Scott Morrison in 2022, now seeking a fourth term in power. Besides two changes in prime minister since then, we’ve had three health ministers, five in charge of education and six heading defence. Should Mr Morrison return to power after May 21, just two other ministers from that first Abbott cabinet will be with him: Barnaby Joyce and Peter Dutton.
Rates of home ownership have fallen slightly over the past nine years, but the value of homes has boomed: the average Australian dwelling is worth 62 per cent more in 2022 than in 2013. In Sydney and Hobart the average value of homes has more than doubled.
CommSec chief economist Craig James said home ownership was “arguably in a similar position to 2013”.
“Rates are lower and more people are in jobs – so the entry levels into the housing market have improved,” he said.
“But the cost of housing is far higher and that affects the sort of property you can purchase as well as where it is located. It’s always a juggling act.”
Loading embed…
The proportion of Australians living in poverty during the term of this government has increased – from 12.4 per cent in 2013 to 14 per cent now, according to the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS).
ACOSS chief executive Dr Cassandra Goldie said there were now three million Australians “making the unbearable choice between whether to put food on the table, get further behind in paying the bills or skip buying essential medicines”.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-how-life-has-really-changed-under-coalition/news-story/54afc04a80a0f573de48993bcce82d72?amp
The more corrupt newsltd hack and lib/nats attack Albanese the less chance they are going to gain any ground on Labor
Since becoming Labor leader, Albo has made statements on Israel..
OPPOSITION leader Anthony Albanese vehemently condemned antisemitism, boycotts of Israel and the apartheid slur, but failed to provide clarity on whether Labor would recognise a Palestinian state if elected to government during an online forum with Jewish communal leaders this week.
In the Tuesday evening Zoom hosted by the Executive Council of Australian Jewry (ECAJ) co-CEO Peter Wertheim, the federal Labor leader reiterated his support for a two-state solution, saying he has always been “very concerned” by people who argue for a one-state solution, calling it “a recipe for disaster”.
Recognising that Israel was created as a Jewish state, Albanese said, “To pretend that wasn’t the case is ahistorical.”
But while clear on that point, he was less so when asked whether Labor would recognise a Palestinian state should it win the next election – as its party platform now calls for it to do – also stating that it would be “pre-emptive” to confirm which Palestinian authority it would recognise.
“We wouldn’t take any action without consulting relevant organisations and nations, across the board, including the Jewish community, including Israel and the Palestinian community,” he said.
https://www.australianjewishnews.com/anthony-albanese-blasts-israel-boycotters/
@ Socrates to me:
“ Have you read the two SMH articles by Peter Hartcher on the AUKUS negotiations? Apart from proving that Morrison will lie about literally anything, there were some significant inclusions I had not seen before. Notably ….”
Yes. I provided a long response yesterday to two aspects of Hartcher’s first article and today, three posts on pages 6 & 7 of this thread.
The ASTUTE option is fucking useless:
1. The Brits simply dont have the heft to build them in australia any time soon (maybe eventually, but the lead time would be 15 years, with nothing operational for decades);
2. The Astutes are not an off the shelf option. It’s problematic reactor isn’t even in production anymore. It doesn’t use an American combat system or American weapons. It has no VL system (which seems to be what Dutton now wants).
3. It has been problematic in operation. it is cramped, it needs a huge number of sailors when compared to the Suffren class and lacks the punch of the Virginia.
4. Post Brexit Britain is a basket case in the making. We should stay well clear of them.
Finally, scroll back – i skewer good and proper the notion that the French should haste been ruled out because their LEU reactors would kept us dependent upon them. in short – we would be dependent on any contracting partner for as long as we lacked a domestic nuclear industry. Refuelling considerations actually play a very small part of that fundamental issue. AUKUS is not a ‘sovereign’ capability deal. A French deal might be … but only if we committed to a civilian nuclear power industry. Still a much better option however. But alas – verboten at the moment.
Albo used to drink Jim Beam and coke without the coke.
Sandman says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 7:58 pm
nathsays:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 7:34 pm
Sharri Markson doing Albo is anti-Israel/pro-Palestinian job.
Albo kinda supports terrorism.
____
Nath retract that statement. You know its BS and frankly beneath even you to say something so offensive.
__________
It wasn’t offensive at all. Just a group of people jumping at something to try and get me with.
@Holden – or worse, vice-versa…
Mavis ”Zimmerman will be returned.”
Trouble is, the Labor candidate is too good and campaigning too well. She’ll probably finish second, the Teal will split about 50-50 pushing Zimmermann over the line.
After the other seven candidates are eliminated, it might look like:
Lib: 40%
Lab: 35%
Teal: 25% ==> Lib 52.5
Swap Teal and Lab, assuming Labor prefs go 90% to Teal, you get Teal 57.5.
Ms Renshaw should have been assigned to a winnable seat.
Anyway, we can prognosticate all we like, we’ll know soon enough.
Wonder how long till this story will break
When South Sydney were kicked out of the ARL/NRL Comp , Albanese supported another rugby league team
You breached your party vows voting for the Teal in North Sydney steve777. Expulsion beckons?
King OMalley @ #1017 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 7:08 pm
They stay open until I get bored or overwhelmed by other matters or until the results come in. However, closest earliest wins bragging rights. You can change your mind at any time, but if two guesses are the same then the earlier guess wins. Timestamps are taken from the blog. I’ll try to accommodate, but no-ones perfect. Whew!
@Steve – you really are going glass half-empty at the moment, lol.
FTR – I’ve not made my overall prediction yet, but agree North Sydney is impacted by being a genuine three-way contest on primaries, but one in which only Tink or Zimmerman can reasonably win.
I’d have voted for Tink – FWIW.
What does Sky actually have on Albo? Do they have video? Need that to get the story to run.
It’s OK @LvT – don’t put your cold teaspoon away, I’m sure there’s …something to get you going.
Grimace @ #1108 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 7:59 pm
Unfortunately, it’s a result of both sides actually being shockingly racist while trying to tag the other side as being racist. The Palestine/Israel issue isn’t a major one for most people… but it’s not invoked as a political issue, but an attempt to tag people as racist.
The pro-Israel side (typically on the Right) will shout “anti-semitism” at anyone daring to criticise the Israeli government, as though all Jews are Israeli and the Israeli government represents the views of all Jews.
The pro-Palestine side (typically on the Left) will shout “anti-Muslim racism” at anyone daring to criticise the… let’s just say “subset of the Palestinian people”, in an attempt to keep from establishing a political point about the issue itself, as the discussion here is about Australian politics. They do this as though Palestine represents all Muslims and criticism of any Muslim is a criticism of all Muslims.
Don’t get me wrong, a lot of those criticisms are coming from people who *are* racist in each direction… but the issue is being used as a political football. And Sharri Markson is case in point – she’s not bringing it up to criticise his position on Israel, she’s bringing it up to try to beat him over the head with an accusation of racism, less than a week before the election.
Both sides do it, unfortunately.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:14 pm
What does Sky actually have on Albo? Do they have video? Need that to get the story to run.
________________
IF they are combing through HoR speeches for anti-semitism then they’ve got nothing.
Lars Von Trier
That would be the most political dumbest thing in the final week of campaign for the Lib/nats and their corrupt media propaganda to do , particular when Morrison claims he is a changed and more passionate man
If they dont have video , they dont have an Albo anti-semitism story.
Rocket Rocket says:
Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 7:50 pm
A_E
Loved ‘The Expanse’ – I had seen a few of the books in the past but never read them. The TV series was great, though series ?4 dragged a bit. I watched 5 series in about two weeks (sad life!) – haven’t watched 6th yet so no spoilers!
———————
I’ve heard the Expanse described by reputable critics as the best sci fi series ever – and I reckon that’s reasonable- it’s certainly my favourite. A lot more credible and observant of the laws of physics than your average space opera. The first season is a bit hard to get into as figuring out what’s going on is a challenge, but persistence pays off. I’d admire your restraint with season 6! Once it was over I got the last 3 books in the series and read them over summer. Hopefully they’ll also be produced as further seasons or separate movies down the track.
https://twitter.com/mediaanalystoz/status/1525700161657131008?s=21&t=ihKrV7gTKS-0swNQmRxAsA
Well this is awkward – members of the lnp rubbishing the super for houses idea
Jt1983 …FTR – I’ve not made my overall prediction yet, but agree North Sydney is impacted by being a genuine three-way contest on primaries, but one in which only Tink or Zimmerman can reasonably win. I agree. The seat poll in an earlier thread, for what it’s worth, also seems to support it. I can’t see Labor getting to 50% 2PP. Never happened in North Sydney.
I’d have voted for Tink – FWIW. So will I, Labor 2… Liberal 10.
If newsltd hacks attack Albanese this week
The lib/nats combined primary vote will be closer to 30% than 35% on this coming saturday night
Anyone hear live in Grey electorate in SA? Interested in the ground campaign of Independent there, has there been anything in the mailbox from Ramsey or Habermann? Gather Labor will tactically play dead
It will be interesting to see the viewer numbers for the underwhelming LNP campaign launch.
Morrison is finished whatever the result on Saturday.
If enough Australian voters decide at the last minute to re-elect the liar from the shire they will be cruelly rewarded during the next three years as Morrison jumps and the LNP parliamentary party has Barnaby and whoever at the helm.
The talk fest will continue, but it appears a matter of how Albanese and Labor land, both in the Reps and perhaps more importantly, the Senate.
The nation born of convicts often seems unwilling to remove the shackled.
Apologies to the first Australians, Barnaby talked today of the Nationals birthright ……….. !
BREAKING: Finland’s leaders confirm they will apply for NATO membership
Paul The Avenger @ #1101 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 7:55 pm
+1
Sandman:
You too needs to settle down a smidgeon, with your almost command: “Nath retract that statement.” I accept you’re Labor to your bootstraps, evidenced by your work at the booths. I also think you’re nervous about the outcome but this site is enhanced by contra views, which I’m sure dear moderator clandestinely encourages.
Gavin White
@GavinWhite18
The final Essential poll will be released Wednesday, with a larger sample size & fieldwork finishing later than our standard polls.
Mavis @ #1117 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 8:06 pm
You do know it was nath, not Flavio, that said it, right?
I assume Turnbull is dismantling Morrison on this?
I’m surprised we don’t have an Ipsos or Resolve.