Utting Research Perth seat polls and Liberal Party briefing wars

New seat polls suggest Labor on track for two gains in Western Australia, although the going is a lot heavier for them than when a similar exercise was conducted in March.

The Sunday Times in Perth has published results of automated phone polls from Utting Research targeting the same four seats as a previous exercise in March. While suggesting Labor are set to pick up two seats, the results are quite a bit stronger for the Liberals than last time, although the sample sizes of 400 per seat imply large margins of error of nearly 5%:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 53-47 in Swan, in from 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 39% for Liberal candidate Kristy McSweeney on 39% (up seven from the previous poll), Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas on 38% (down eight), 10% for the Greens (up three), 4% for One Nation (up one) and 3% for the United Australia Party (down two).

• Labor’s lead in Pearce is in from 55-45 in March to 52-48, from primary votes of 32% for Liberal candidate Linda Aitken (up two), 30% for Labor candidate Tracey Roberts (down fourteen), 12% for the Greens (up seven), 7% for One Nation (down two) and 6% for the United Australia Party (up one).

• Liberal member Ken Wyatt now leads Labor candidate Tania Lawrence 55-45 in Hasluck after trailing 52-48 in March. The primary votes are 39% for Wyatt (up two) and 31% for Lawrence (down eight), with the Greens on 10% (down three), the United Australia Party on 9% (up six) and One Nation on 6% (down two).

• Liberal member Ben Morton is credited with a 54-46 lead in Tangney after a 50-50 result last time. The primary votes are 47% for Morton (up six), 35% for Labor candidate Sam Lim (down six), 8% for the Greens (up one) and 2% each for One Nation and the United Australia Party (both unchanged).

Elsewhere, the Age/Herald notes a “briefing war” is under way among Liberals, with those aligned with Scott Morrison and Alex Hawke’s centre right faction presenting press gallery reporters with hopeful assessments at odds with those being traded by factional conservatives and moderates, who are respectively angry with the centre right over the New South Wales Liberal Party preselection logjam and a campaign strategy that has seemingly cut loose members under threat from the teal independents.

The optimistic view is that the Coalition might fall only a few seats short of a majority and succeed in holding on to power with the support of a small number of cross-benchers, thanks in part to live possibilities of gaining McEwen and Greenway from Labor. However, both sides agree Labor-held Parramatta and Corangamite are “in play”. Conversely, the view of Liberal pessimists that Reid, Bennelong, Chisholm and Boothby will fall is shared by Labor, who further believe North Sydney, Brisbane, Swan and Pearce are “line ball” (although the last two assessments may not sound like particularly good news for Labor’s perspective).

Talk of a briefing war presumably helps explain the report on Friday from Peter van Onselen of Ten News, in which he revealed internal polling had Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote in Kooyong down from a redistribution-adjusted 49.2% in 2019 to 43%, Tim Wilson down in Goldstein from 52.7% to 37% and Katie Allen down in Higgins from 46.5% to 44%. Such numbers would almost certainly doom Wilson to defeat at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel, and put Labor in contention in Higgins and Frydenberg at risk from independent Monique Ryan. However, the assessment of a moderate Liberal source in the previously discussed Age/Herald report was that Frydenberg’s position was strengthening, prompting the conclusion that “we could lose but save Josh”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Utting Research Perth seat polls and Liberal Party briefing wars”

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  1. Thought I’d post a local link (Ms Snappy has a subscription to this paywalled article; link for those able to sidestep such) pursuant to the seat of Hunter…

    https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/7737538/bonds-not-feeling-upset-on-the-cards-in-hunter/?cs=7576

    Stuart Bonds ran for One Nation in 2019 and achieved 21% of the PV, slashing Joel Fitz’s margin from 12 to 3%.

    Bonds later fell out with PHON and is running as an independent. In the above link, he says he’s not ‘feeling’ an electoral mood against Labor this time. He thinks Albo’s done well in walking back some of Shorten’s ‘rhetoric’ on mining, negative gearing etc. For all his relatively positive comments about Albo, he’s preferencing Nat above ALP.

    He concludes with the view that the best outcome for Hunter, given the likelihood of a Labor govt, would be Big Dan winning, but the seat remaining marginal – so Labor in govt has to continue investing in it to shore it up.

  2. GlenO:

    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 10:17 pm

    I have a marked tendency for confusion at this time of the night. I attribute it to an old war injury.

  3. The bucket add, also doesn’t account for the fact that you can grow the economy and reform away debt. So sunk costs on a imaginary submarine are worse than childcare help. because one of the two will result in a more productive workforce that pays more tax.

  4. Btw, if anyone doubts my argument that Westminster conventions only exist if they’re enforceable, then you should answer this question: do you seriously expect the Liberals would voluntarily follow a convention if it wasn’t in their best interest? And do you really believe their highly self-interested and shockingly corrupt 19th century predecessors were any better?

  5. C@t, I think the point was not “is Breivik a terrorist”, the point is he’s in jail, he’s not a terrorist or terrorist group being “harboured” by Norway.

  6. [The problem with the hole in the bucket ad is that song is just BLOODY awful ]

    the problem with the hole in the bucket ad is that the whole concept that it speaks to has passed the Liberals by.

    18 year olds today who look ahead to a tertiary degree need to picture themselves in their mid-20s with 30/40/50K of debt.

    then if they want to own a home in their mid-30s, they need to contemplate $500-$600K of further debt.

    Jesus. who cares if the government budget is balanced? the liberals have created a generation of debt junkies who have become overly familiar with debt just so they could get educated and put a roof over the heads of the their family. why would they vote for a government that laughs at others in debt

  7. And the whole debt thing – the Coalition more than doubled the debt before Covid struck. They never budgeted a surplus, in spite of repeated promises. They tipped thens of billions down the toilet in Jobkeeper for profitable corporations, on subs and helicopters that would never be built, on tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy – no one ever asks them where the money’s coming from.

  8. With the election predictions what does it mean by “seats declared on the night”? I’m not aware of any seats the AEC or Antony Green declares on the night.

  9. C@tmomma @ #1281 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 10:33 pm

    The campaign will probably make sure they’re on opposite sides of the country.

    I actually think they would be quite smart to have the two cross paths, in a carefully-timed manner. Perhaps they could do an announcement in Cook, and have both Rudd and Gillard appear there on either side of Albanese. What better message to send to Morrison that Albanese has the support of past Labor PMs, than by having them both there, with Albanese, in Morrison’s own seat.

    I kind of wonder if they could coax Turnbull to be there, too. Maybe pick something Turnbull cares deeply about, and have an announcement on that?

  10. Does anyone posting here get paid (either as salary or commission) to drive business to betting companies?

    Alternatively, do betting companies pay to have comments as ‘native advertising’?

  11. “What better message to send to Morrison that Albanese has the support of past Labor PMs”

    I don’t think Morrison would give a shit and nor would anybody else?

    Turnbull isn’t even in the country, and tweeted himself voting pre-poll in London. He happily tipped a bucket on today’s super policy announcement via Twitter again, so nobody doubts he wants Morrison to lose….

  12. With the whole house in Covid Iso, my eldest daughter (the recent new mother), who is 23 and been working since she was 17 in Aged Care, and her partner were actually comparing the Labor housing policy with the Lib one just announced….I got wind of what they were doing when they asked me how to find the balance of their super accounts….we rummaged around for a letter from Hesta and got her set up online…..she has a little over 10k owing to her hours being very part time……His was about $13k having worked a lot of cashie jobs……they didnt ‘get’ the jist at first of what the labor policy until I explained it ….they were much happier.

    Im sure many young people with better paying jobs might have substantially more super balance, but then they probably dont need the help to save the gargantuan deposits needed these days….and thats in Adelaide….Fuck knows how anyone affords houses in Melb or Syd

  13. Bludging @ #1172 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 6:39 pm

    Grimace says:
    Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 8:29 pm
    On some personal news unrelated to politics, tomorrow is my last day in the COVID lounge and I’m an uncle for the seventh and likely last time.

    My stay in the COVID lounge has been pleasant & uneventful, with special thanks to the science of immunisation & good luck. The arrival of niece or nephew #7 an hour or so ago was similarly uneventful, with mum & the unnamed & unsexed baby being safe & healthy.

    I’m happy to hear the news on both scores, Grim.

    How is life treating you?

  14. Seems a bit late for any polling to drop tonight. Every pollster just holding on to do a final poll to drop between Wednesday and Friday I guess. So we have to wait to see the impact of Real Scott The Non Bulldozer.

  15. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russia-withdraws-from-kharkiv

    Some interesting images from Ukraine in this. Russian tanks dead in a river, apparently while trying to retreat. Odd…..debate as to whether they were knocked out or their crews just drove them into the river by mistake, panic……or whatever?? Pretty good confidence that the Russians have lost a lot of kit and personnel in those attacks of the last few days. Russian river crossing ability has been legendary since WWII. Seems they have lost the knack.

    Russia certainly being pressured over blocking Ukrainian food exports which is good to see but dont think it will shift them. I will not be surprised if Putin does agree to a cease fire in place, but only to take advantage of time to rest and resupply. Dont think a ceasefire on land will hold long, but, arrangements to minesweep off Odessa and get make it off limits for Russian missiles AND Ukranian anti ship could work??

  16. The jingle advertisement is a deflection from the debt racked up by this government which has lined the pockets of Corporate Australia and expended on pork barrel

    The Palmer graph of debt is the confirmation

    The question is, where are the Nation building expenditures on health, well-being and infrastructure?

    Instead they sell the Port of Darwin and every other public asset

  17. The dears leaders of Russia and China are purportedly on the way out. Dear leader Putin, leukemia & Parkinsons; dear leader Xi, aneurysm. Oh, and dear leader Kim Jong-un, obesity, excessive imbibing, smoking. If this keeps up, they’ll be no dear leaders left.

  18. mj @ #1310 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 11:12 pm

    With the election predictions what does it mean by “seats declared on the night”? I’m not aware of any seats the AEC or Antony Green declares on the night.

    Good point. I guess it means a poor memory or bad phrasing. I was thinking of the seat counts for the leading Parties (and any others) that the ABC usually shows us based on A. Green’s magic algorithms. The final count and confirmation may of course take days. So what I was trying to say is “the ABC’s count, at COB on election day, of seats likely won by each Party”.

    I’ve captured tonight’s additional guesses for PuffyTMD, King OMalley, Mr. Curlew, GlenO, and Historyintime. I’ll collate sometime tomorrow and get a regular update going.

    Now it’s Good Night for sure. 🙂

  19. @MJ

    Yes surely the game is about guessing the real result not what tv networks estimate it to be, they always call seats too early including the ABC.

    My prediction is Labor grind out a workmanlike victory picking up two seats in every state SA excepted where they get one but drop a couple against the run of play probably in NSW and end up with 78.

    My other prediction is it will look 80ish on the night but postals will drag two or three close seats back into the tory column once all the votes are counted.

  20. Late Riser @ #1326 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:48 pm

    mj @ #1310 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 11:12 pm

    With the election predictions what does it mean by “seats declared on the night”? I’m not aware of any seats the AEC or Antony Green declares on the night.

    Good point. I guess it means a poor memory or bad phrasing. I was thinking of the seat counts for the leading Parties (and any others) that the ABC usually shows us based on A. Green’s magic algorithms. The final count and confirmation may of course take days. So what I was trying to say is “the ABC’s count, at COB on election day, of seats likely won by each Party”.

    I’ve captured tonight’s additional guesses for PuffyTMD, King OMalley, Mr. Curlew, GlenO, and Historyintime. I’ll collate sometime tomorrow and get a regular update going.

    Now it’s Good Night for sure. 🙂

    Thanks Late Riser, I thought that was probably what was meant but just wanted to make sure it wasn’t just a tally of total seats declared regardless of party. I’ll reserve my prediction for Friday night or Saturday morning but atm it seems like a roughly 8o ALP, 60 LNP, 11 Others election.

  21. Voodoo Blues @ #1327 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 9:58 pm

    @MJ

    Yes surely the game is about guessing the real result not what tv networks estimate it to be, they always call seats too early including the ABC.

    My prediction is Labor grind out a workmanlike victory picking up two seats in every state SA excepted where they get one but drop a couple against the run of play probably in NSW and end up with 78.

    My other prediction is it will look 80ish on the night but postals will drag two or three close seats back into the tory column once all the votes are counted.

    Yeah Voodoo it seems sensible to expect that Labor will do better with election day votes, so they would want to be over 80 projected seats on election night to be confident of majority govt.

  22. Mavis says Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 11:43 pm

    The dears leaders of Russia and China are purportedly on the way out. Dear leader Putin, leukemia & Parkinsons; dear leader Xi, aneurysm. Oh, and dear leader Kim Jong-un, obesity, excessive imbibing, smoking. If this keeps up, they’ll be no dear leaders left.

    Are there any reputable sources for the Xi aneurysm? News.com.au has an article, but that comes from The Sun, so I would hardly call it reputable. I think it’s reasonable to ask questions about Putin’s health considering his recent appearances, but again none of the reports seem authoritative.

  23. Here we go again at 11.37

    Speaking of the Port of Darwin…there was that story about Treasurer Morrison signing of on $20m incentive to NT govt to help get the China port deal done.

    Has this story be successfully buried by our completely unbiased lamestream media?

  24. @mj – nah, Labor doesn’t need to be above 80 seats. Postals will be much higher, as a consequence will be unlikely to behave as they normally do. They’ll be more Lib than ED votes, but not as much as normal.

    If Labor is solid on 74-76 seats, it will be clear there will be a Labor Government, just requiring formalities as to whether it’s minority or majority based on what’s outstanding, where and the margins.

  25. jt1983 @ #1333 Sunday, May 15th, 2022 – 10:18 pm

    @mj – nah, Labor doesn’t need to be above 80 seats. Postals will be much higher, as a consequence will be unlikely to behave as they normally do. They’ll be more Lib than ED votes, but not as much as normal.

    If Labor is solid on 74-76 seats, it will be clear there will be a Labor Government, just requiring formalities as to whether it’s minority or majority based on what’s outstanding, where and the margins.

    Possibly but it depends on the margins on election night. With more postal votes it’s unclear how they’ll distribute but you’d assume they lean more conservative, though not as strongly as in past elections.

  26. The postals will still strongly favour the coalition because lots more old people than usual will vote that way, nothing will change in that regard.

  27. Check postals at state elections… I didn’t say they wouldn’t be more Coalition-friendly… but based on the state elections you’ve seen more people voting postal but as a consequence likely to be as overly pro-Coalition as in previous Federal Elections, don’t think I’m saying anything particularly controversial.

  28. Minjee Lee returned to her winning ways by taking the LPGA event in New Jersey on Sunday.

    But as usual, our footy-addled sports media will probably ignore her world-class performance, as they do with our young elite male golfers.

  29. Hey, what? ‘was, has been? Did something happen with Lizzie that I completely missed?

    Zoë has been honoured by your diverse group and it gives much comfort to know she was loved and respected as we know she deserved with her inclusive understanding and clear communication to regard of all walks of life.

  30. Lizzie is a Bludger who will be very much missed. It saddens me greatly to learn she died. I know I will shed tears. Rest in Peace, Zoe aka Lizzie.

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