The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.
Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.
As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.
Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:
• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.
• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.
• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.
• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.
• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.
• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.
These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.
citizen @ #83 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 8:40 am
I reckon he has been predicting this for a while. One can only hope, for the sake of our democracy and our country, that he is right. But it may well be that he is correct in the first because he is incorrect in the second. That the teals are able to market themselves as the ones who temper the ALP into a good government and point out that the LNP are now an ultra conservative and dodgy rabble. The problem with all these predictions is trying to factor in the power of the RW media to control the news narrative (despite the dropping direct influence in old media). You would think some elements of the MSM like 9 and 7 would crab away from what the LNP have become and be somewhat supportive of the teals. But old tribal allegiances and old habits die hard and I suspect we will have an even more rabid Murdoch media and a lot of the rest of the MSM will still fall in behind.
As others have suggested on here, it will be interesting to see what happens to the tribal journos like Coorey and Uhlmann… and even Benson and to a lesser extent the entertainment journos like Markson. But I dont hold my breath on that. And will the ABC keep up with the over compensation and even attempts to put both majors on the same level if the LNP continue this descent.
I suggest that the fact we are talking up the ALP (maybe!) getting to 80 seats as some sort of major turning point gives you the answer to the above questions -there are still greater depths to fathom. We will know a little more in 10 days and a lot more in 110.
@Griff
“The 125 or so sample in each seat, as performed by YouGov, should allow for seat by seat variation to a greater extent than a nationwide poll.”
But I think the whole point of MRP is that you don’t do that.
A standard poll works by asking people who they are going to vote for, then asking for the demographics and weighting each response so that your sample is representative of the nation.
Whereas MRP, as I understand it, is completely different. The ‘who will you vote for’ doesn’t actually do anything for that individual seat. MRP works by saying
“x demographic is swinging to Y party, according to our national poll”
“Z seat has a lot of x demographic, according to the ABS”
Therefore Z seat will swing to Y party.
It doesn’t matter if the candidate for Y party is conclusively proved to be Hitler and not a single person in Z seat indicated a preference for Y party, the MRP is blind to that.
It doesn’t have a sample size per seat in a traditional sense.
You might expect in a 2 party situation, many of these peculiarities will even out, but that’s why I said it’s gong to be terrible at predicting teal, inde green seats. It’ll also struggle where a major party candidate is particularly good, or particularly bad.
It is a shame Moon Unit is taken.
“Work To Rulesays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:30 am
Arky @ #84 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:10 am
Morrison will insincerely chunder through a reasonable concession speech although not without a couple of swipes.
I doubt we’ll get anything as bad as Turnbull’s speech when he didn’t even actually lose.
I’d expect Morrison would have one eye on his next hustle and would attempt a gracious speech. Whether he can manage to pull that off is an open question.”
The fact that he would already be know he is probably gone means he has a bit of time to wrap his head around the implications of an ungracious speech.
Part of Turnbull’s problem was that, the press gallery at least (led by the fucking moronic Chris Uhlmann) had called what was a knife edge election two weeks out (and preceded to hector shorten with questions about whether he would stay on as opposition leader)
Upnorth, in light of mundo’s 8.31 post…
“What’s happening to me Toto, I’m beginning to think Labor does have a chance.”
…I propose that this poster henceforth be known as ‘mundo-Toto’ (note correct capitalisation.) The hyphenation scene was getting a little quiet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkBrTr_0T-g
“Voice Endeavoursays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:35 am
@Griff
“The 125 or so sample in each seat, as performed by YouGov, should allow for seat by seat variation to a greater extent than a nationwide poll.”
But I think the whole point of MRP is that you don’t do that.
A standard poll works by asking people who they are going to vote for, then asking for the demographics and weighting each response so that your sample is representative of the nation.
Whereas MRP, as I understand it, is completely different. The ‘who will you vote for’ doesn’t actually do anything for that individual seat. MRP works by saying
“x demographic is swinging to Y party, according to our national poll”
“Z seat has a lot of x demographic, according to the ABS”
Therefore Z seat will swing to Y party.
It doesn’t matter if the candidate for Y party is conclusively proved to be Hitler and not a single person in Z seat indicated a preference for Y party, the MRP is blind to that.
It doesn’t have a sample size per seat in a traditional sense.
You might expect in a 2 party situation, many of these peculiarities will even out, but that’s why I said it’s gong to be terrible at predicting teal, inde green seats. It’ll also struggle where a major party candidate is particularly good, or particularly bad.”
Surely there is some weighting based on the 125 respondents in each seat though? Otherwise it is not just sketchy, it is actually an absurdity to present the “non-classical” seat results as credible
Cronus says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:12 am
citizen
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:02 am
“Bellwether says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:47 am
Morrison is a loose unit.”
“Or perhaps a loose goose.”
One thing I’ll say about Morrison in regard to this election is that he has been consistent, consistently bad. His judgement has been absolutely atrocious at every turn. I can’t think of even one prudent move that he’s made. Even better, he’s been the architect of his own demise.
Morrison has been campaigning to himself for 3 years. He continues to do that, as if he’s listening to his own inner voice: the voice that tells him he’s been endorsed by Providence and will therefore certainly win.
I’ve always thought Morrison to be an overblown loud-mouth and an idiot, an evangelically-soured figure of prejudice…of phobia with a sneer and a smirk.
He has been playing dress-ups all along. Even when he’s not in fancy costume or play-acting in the kitchen, he’s pretending to be a PM. He only adopts the guise of a PM. He’s utterly without feel for the gig.
At all times, politics is about voters. It’s about the people. Morrison thinks it’s about him and some notion of his destiny. Consequently he’s made himself an issue. One of the worst of politicians is about to lose to one of the best.
Albo in Flynn this morning. I hope Labor are a chance there, Matt Burnett is a great bloke and candidate.
Just read Nikki Sava about how Morrison’s office is running the campaign of Katherine Deves, no huge surprise that one, Morrison and his inner circle happy to throw transgender kids and young people under the bus for One Nation and Palmer United preferences
Our city pre-poll is actually in Garth Hamilton’s campaign office building.
As you approach it is wall to wall posters, banners & freestanding 6ft board of Garth.
Workers at the booth which is directly above his office have been told no advertising material is permitted on site.
A complaint has been forwarded by Labor, Independent & Green’s to AEC.
Bludgingsays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:40 am
Great comments about SCOMUSTGO there. Is he simply a born loser propped up by religious mania?
“WB :
Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:
• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.
• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.
• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.
• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.
• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.
• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.
”
What is interesting about these polls is ALP PV is down in VIC & TAS from its 2019 numbers and in QLD it is still under 30%.
And LNP leads ALP on PV in QLD & WA and
ALP does not have 40% PV in any state.
Baffling to put it mildly.
I suggest to the scotts and alpos of this site to hold their horses.
poroti @ #78 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:03 am
That’s the point! The ice caps are melting into the heating waters of the ocean and then evaporating into the atmosphere! 😯
C@tmomma @ #70 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 8:53 am
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=500007498582515&set=a.161080979141837
It’s not all that baffling … in fact it’s pretty consistent. Welcome to the new world.
I don’t buy the ALP PV is that low in VIC.
I’m not especially concerned.
”
nathsays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:00 am
leftieBrawler says:
If Labor pull off victory without any help from QLD that state should be severely punished and starved out of existence
_________
So Stalinesque!
”
So Nath
Are you implying that Morrison was/is Stalinesque during last 3 years? 🙂
BTW, I am no way suggesting that a place should get its funding share based on how it voted. Far from it. I am not suggesting it. LNP MPs implemented that.
”
mundosays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:31 am
What’s happening to me Toto, I’m beginning to think Labor does have a chance.
”
Don’t jinx mundo. 🙂
Under Duna mundo as GG says to you. 🙂
citizen @ #96 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:00 am
The soft power of the media editor. It is everywhere. It is very poor journalism but the journo can claim they have no control over the headline. It happens a lot on the ABC online and there was the frontpage headline joke in the Advertiser a couple of days ago. This is something an RC into journalism and the media could look at. Either the journalist must write the headline or the editor is held accountable to it as a journalist under journalistic codes.
I believe that the best solution here is a fully professional layer of journalists, set by act of parliament and controlled by an independent board, with a very clear list of ethics and regulations and codes where the board can remove a journalist from the register of professional journalists if they repeatedly breach those controls. To get on the register you must have certain qualifications and experience and pass a test of the code and ethics. Media outlets can still hire small “j” journalists not on the register but must advertise as such. Only those on the register can advertise themselves as Professional Journalists. You could state in the regulations that any headline for a professional journos article must be OK’d by that journalist.
”
carson63000says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:41 am
bc @ #1 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 2:52 am
I tend to find that identify politics tends to be the domain of the right.
Unfortunately, the way it often goes is..
Right-Winger: Blokes in skirts playing womens’ sport! Blokes in dresses in womens’ toilets! Teachers convincing kiddies to get sex changes!
Labor:
Disengaged Voter: Bloody Labor, always banging on about trans rights instead of important issues
”
WTF. You incomprehensible…….
Work To Rule @ #95 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:30 am
Good gracious me!
Who in their right mind would employ him.He is toxic and would now be more well known for undermining his employers as well as those under him.
Nope he’s finished as far as I can see,burned most of his bridges and not even a hope over seas to hide away.
I can’t see Albo and co. giving him a gig.
Re the difference between the 2019 and 2022 campaigns…
It was an unforgivable mistake 3 years ago to allow the election to be a referendum on Labor.
Granted, most of the policies had been taken to the 2016 election. I’m not a campaign manager, but Labor needed to be more flexible in the post-Turnbull phase. There needed to be a willingness to dump policies at short notice to keep the spotlight on the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison govt (which should always have been referred to in that triple-barreled way.) Another problem was that, for all his contributions to NDIS and strong party leadership, Shorten had baggage from the RGR wars – so, could be nicknamed ‘Shifty.’
Morrison’s problem this time is that he and his govt’s record are in the spotlight. He’s campaigned as he’s governed: poorly. He’s failed to focus on Labor (despite media help) because his record is so poor. He’s failed in comparison to Albo because Morrison is neither nice, genuine, nor particularly Christian. His unlikeability worsens the perception of his govt’s already poor performance. He would be doing less badly if he was nice but incompetent.
Instead, he combines the competence of a McMahon, the integrity of a Petersen and the empathy of a Fraser.
YouGov methodology is provided here: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/mrp-a-new-way-of-polling/news-story/393a33b7c671f254db1b21515528c215
“In these surveys, respondents were asked their voting intention in the same way Newspoll does. Participants see the options that they will have to choose from in their own electorate, including all parties and independents. They are also asked a large number of questions about their demographic and other characteristics, as well as how they have voted previously.
The data from the survey – age, gender, education, language spoken at home, religion, dwelling tenure, household income, employment and 2019 vote – along with other information are used both as predictors in our model, and to weight our predictions.”
There are some details that are not provided here, but it is safe to say that they are providing seat-level choices to participants. This would account for the Teals being present in some seats over others. The demographic and historical voting information is then used to weight the results according to the Census and 2019 voting patterns to work up a seat-level prediction. While it does not say that it has stratified the sample according to seat, with “18,923 surveys with Australian voters from 14 April to 7 May. This includes some data from recent Newspoll surveys as well as additional surveys collected separately. This provides us with a very large sample to produce granular estimates of vote intention in all 151 of the electorates that will decide the election.” it at least says it sampled in every seat. I am very willing to backtrack on the suggestion that it had samples of at least 120 in each seat, although that is the way I would have run it, and I would be surprised it they didn’t stratify at least partially according to seat.
So, I would suggest more granular than traditional robopolling, hence the potential to provide more accurate seat-level polling. But also potentially inferior to traditional seat-level tracking polling, as it relies on predictors to extrapolate the small sample per seat.
The Prime Minister is a one person Dirt Unit.
Here is a summary of the MRP POLL from Newpoll which, if nothing else, does a pretty good job of identifying the seats that will shape this election.
ALP 80 COALITION 63 OTHERS 8
ALP GAINS (11): Bennelong, Reid, Robertson, Lindsay, Chisolm, Higgins, Brisbane, Boothby, Bass, Swan, Pearce.
Independent gains (2): Kooyong, Goldstein
Liberal gains (1): Hughes
Greens gains 0
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2022/results
As William says, Corangamite is the only Labor seat at risk with the poll stating it is likely a Labor retain and Lindsay is tipped as a likely win for Labor. Others that can be added to the likely Coalition retains but not out of contention in the survey are Longman, Ryan and Sturt.
–
This survey result makes little room for surprise outlier losses for both sides, with only Corangamite considered at risk for Labor {for example]. On the other side of the ledger, Page will be one to watch because there are people who haven’t forgotten the disgraceful lack of emergency support they got during the floods disaster and the lack of follow up.
Evan @ #108 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:42 am
Someone just commented on Niki Savva’s article that Katherine Deves is the Liberal’s 21st century Pauline Hanson.
Grime @ #120 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:55 am
Russia running a
terrorismtourism campaign anytime soon? Or perhaps Afghanistan? They would like his views on religious freedom legislation…The Revisionist says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:40 am
The YouGov forecasts attempt to describe the general (electorate-wide) allocations of support by selecting from the micro-scale (from the individual voter-level), then summing the micro and re-casting the results as particular seat-level outcomes.
All done, it is an attempt to describe the general on the basis of the particular. It is very unlikely to be accurate wrt all particular seats. Because the samples are not randomised, the implicit MOE in each ‘unit’ are huge, so the PV splits are also unlikely to be accurate in each case.
The historic Lib plurality is disintegrating. This is a defining feature of this election. YouGov would be better to try to describe this. This disintegration has been developing for more than 25 years. It’s in full motion now. It will determine how many seats the Reactionaries – the historically dominant Party in national politics – have in the next Parliament. It also portends the deconstruction of the Liberal Party itself, a Party that has become all but unelectable.
I think the final question in last night’s debate was along the lines of ‘what do you admire about your opponent and what most worries you?’
For the first time ever, the PM answered the actual question and it blows up in his face.
Well played, Albo!
Jan says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:52 am
The soft power of the media editor. It is everywhere. It is very poor journalism but the journo can claim they have no control over the headline. It happens a lot on the ABC online and there was the frontpage headline joke in the Advertiser a couple of days ago. This is something an RC into journalism and the media could look at. Either the journalist must write the headline or the editor is held accountable to it as a journalist under journalistic codes.
I believe that the best solution here is a fully professional layer of journalists, set by act of parliament and controlled by an independent board, with a very clear list of ethics and regulations and codes where the board can remove a journalist from the register of professional journalists if they repeatedly breach those controls. To get on the register you must have certain qualifications and experience and pass a test of the code and ethics. Media outlets can still hire small “j” journalists not on the register but must advertise as such. Only those on the register can advertise themselves as Professional Journalists. You could state in the regulations that any headline for a professional journos article must be OK’d by that journalist.
_________________________________________
I fail to see any point in a media Royal Commission. To the extent that the Constitution allows, what you propose (and I personally think that media ownership is the issue) can be done without a commission of inquiry because everyone who wants to look knows what is wrong. A Royal Commission will only give the media powers a chance to regroup and undermine the RC and anything it proposes.
If Labor is going to do anything, it should just legislate.
Victoria :
There have been another 15 COVID-19 deaths in Victoria.
There are 545 cases in hospital, with 29 of those patients in intensive care, with eight of them requiring ventilation.
There were 14,333 new cases reported today.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
New South Wales :
The state has recorded 23 more COVID-19 deaths.
There are 1,403 cases in hospital, 56 of whom are in intensive care.
There were 12,600 new cases reported today in New South Wales.
Frydenberg and Birmingham are doing their darndest to save the Liberal party’s bacon on ABC News right now. The future of the party is in their hands.
God help them.
Old Spoke @ #126 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:01 am
Not to mention that Albanese appeared to have a pre-prepared anodyne response to give about Morrison. 🙂
Just musing further, MRP would be a reasonable approach to direct seat-level tracking polling in a hybrid polling strategy. If sufficient money was available of course 🙂
The responsibility that comes with government will not and can not embrace a culture war
The government must govern
As with the election of Whitlam, Hawke and Rudd, an incoming Labor government will inherit less than ideal circumstances
This is a World of a pandemic, putting pressure on public health, introducing supply chain pressures which are feeding into inflation and, to boot, we have conflict in a region of Eastern Europe also impacting on commodity prices – and inflation
Inflation driving interest rates – adding further pressure no matter that interest rates are at historical lows
This all feeds into uncertainty
Also impacting economic activity
To reverse and exit from this trend is going to take time – time to restore capacity contingent on the impacts of the Pandemic and time to resolve the Eastern European situation (which must be resolved – as must Australia’s relationship with China)
So clear minds, explaining the challenges and supporting the community thru to resolutions
The much repeated productivity is not 400,000 people a week going into isolation to interrupt the spread of the virus
It is not 350 deaths a week
It is not losing those people from the productivity pool
No one has all the answers – particularly in the World of today
To draw together business leaders, Unions and community groups and set them one challenge to improve the circumstances of Australian citizens in going about their lives and contributing to economic activity is (once again) the start point
For all the criticism of China, the key to their manifesto is to improve the living circumstances of their citizens
Fail on that and they fail
We all need to do our bit, starting from being vaccinated, self testing and isolating to interrupt the spread of this virus
In the knowledge that government and society has our back
This starts with making every effort to address the pressures on our health system
The taxing jurisdiction of government (Federal) must come to the party – not leave the unprecedented fall out of this Pandemic to the States (and culture wars)
Recruiting staff resource, training staff resource so addressing need
Such that physical capacity in the systems can be supported by human capacity
And, at the core, do everything possible to arrest the spread
Don’t fight a culture war over masks and physical distancing and vaccination and testing
We are in just too big a fight for the distractions
Ok, so which one of you is BobMcMullen?
Mundo?
I am much too scarred by the 2019 experience to make an election prediction in 2022.
However, as I remain fascinated by the prospects and challenges in the remainder of the election campaign, I have studied the two websites I am aware of which are trying to assess the probabilities of various election outcomes based on polling and, in one case, other data.
The Poll Bludger website provides the best overview of polling data but does not attempt to use it to make forecasts. In a recent edition the poll bludger referred to two websites which are attempting to do just that for this election. Their methodologies are different but their results are remarkably similar.
https://johnmenadue.com/probability-websites-are-picking-labor-to-win/
Sign that Murdoch is accepting the writing on the wall:-
sky news has big banner plastered on their news channel:
“Albanese wins final debate”
Bludgingsays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:28 am
This is yet another example of the Greens adopting tactics that they hope will result in a Labor candidate losing. This is a principal goal of Green campaigning: setting out to award wins to parties other than Labor wherever feasible. They will try to win on their own account, naturally and where this is not possible, in the clinches they try to make sure that another 3rd-voice candidate wins.
They are an anti-Labor outfit.
_____________
Briefly doing delusional again……
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:58 am
Evan @ #108 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:42 am
Albo in Flynn this morning. I hope Labor are a chance there, Matt Burnett is a great bloke and candidate.
Just read Nikki Sava about how Morrison’s office is running the campaign of Katherine Deves, no huge surprise that one, Morrison and his inner circle happy to throw transgender kids and young people under the bus for One Nation and Palmer United preferences
Someone just commented on Niki Savva’s article that Katherine Deves is the Liberal’s 21st century Pauline Hanson.
It would be more accurate to describe Morrison as the Hanson of this election. Hanson spoke up as a Lib to champion phobic causes and tropes. She was dis-endorsed by the Liberals and went on to win anyway. Morrison is likewise a champion of phobic causes and tropes, but since he now has the Liberal Party in a headlock, he will not be dis-endorsed. Rather, the electorate will eject his party from power. Deves is his toy.
ausdavo says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:38 am
Further comment re the seat of Hinkler. Noticed a comment that the Greens have preferenced Jack Dempsey IND ahead of Jason Scanes ALP on their how to vote cards. This could prove to help Dempsey if he and Scanes are close?
中華民國
Cobber where are Dempsey’s preferences directed? That may be the real indicator.
Scomo’s next gig is preparing for and appearing at ICAC inquiries and the Robodebt RC.
Grime
I can’t see Albo and co. giving him a gig
…………….
The ALP needs to clean the crooked bastards out of government not give any of them a gig. Bloody hell!
And the link to the full YouGov results in The Australian is SLOOOOOW right now! Can some of you stop reloading please? 🙂
Rakali @ #139 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:12 am
That was Kevin Rudd’s first big mistake. Leaving Liberals where they were so they could undermine his government from the inside.
Rakali @ #140 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:12 am
+1
Bludging
“ At all times, politics is about voters. It’s about the people. Morrison thinks it’s about him and some notion of his destiny. Consequently he’s made himself an issue. One of the worst of politicians is about to lose to one of the best.”
The opponents certainly could not be more different, one entirely self-centred, the other with a history of thinking about others and what’s best for the nation. I often think that this is also the difference between Liberal and Labor at their hearts.
DRDR @ #136 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:06 am
Don’t be freakin’ stupid DRDR.
Morrison can’t be trusted and now Frydenberg should be punished for reverberating at every press conference, the lies and distortions that LNP and Morrison pretend to believe.
The Morrison/Frydenberg/Birmingham mantra is repeating bullshit , unchallenged by the MSM, that having built up a trillion dollar deficit, they should be rewarded for accidentally achieving some deficit number slightly less.
As a nation, Australia is now in a position of having an incompetent and deceitful Morrison government needing to be removed to clean up a concoction of self importance, misplaced trust and lack of transparency.
The exiling of Morrison at the completion of an election lost will be swift. Frydenberg should not be exonerated and should be punished as harshly as Morrison.
Thankfully enough Australian seem to identify the only remedy available to expunge the Morrison/Frydenberg/ Joyce on-going travesty.
C@t
Someone just commented on Niki Savva’s article that Katherine Deves is the Liberal’s 21st century Pauline Hanson.
____________________________________
There is no comparison. Hanson encapsulated working class frustration at what they saw as Keating’s aggressive agenda – links to Asia, Aboriginal rights, etc. Deves is championing a truly non-issue, which is being weaponised by Morrison in an attempt to engage conservative and religious societies among immigrant communities. Like marriage equality, these people may agree with the ‘anti’ position (and will say so if asked), but they will still vote with their pockets.
Morrison has 9 days!
He’s desperate & nothing would surprise me in the last week up to polling day.
I meant Bludging.
As in don’t be freakin’ stupid Bludging.