YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8

All revealed from the YouGov MRP poll that was teased yesterday, suggesting Labor is on track for a fairly comfortable parliamentary majority in its own right.

The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.

Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.

As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.

Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:

• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.

• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.

• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.

• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.

• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.

• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.

These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8”

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  1. “Morrison not taking responsibility” is resonating across the country

    So can we expect a big, pleading mea culpa in the last week in desperation? Apologies on all fronts; for Hawaii, prices, wages etc? Wouldn’t put it past the showman.

  2. nath says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:00 am
    leftieBrawler says:

    If Labor pull off victory without any help from QLD that state should be severely punished and starved out of existence
    _________
    So Stalinesque!
    ———
    Maybe we could just expel them from the federation….works for just about everyone (apologies to my left-leaning Qld family members, for whom it wouldn’t work at all)…

  3. Get this! The Young Liberals facebook page are saying that Scott Morrison won the 3rd Debate last night!

    😆 😆 😆

  4. max at 8:27 am

    Maybe we could just expel them from the federation….works for just about everyone

    They punished WA by making us stay in the Federation 🙂

  5. ausdavo @ #48 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 8:17 am

    The talk here in Hervey Bay is from Independent Jack Dempsey (Mayor of Bundaberg) that Keith Pitt is gone ! I hope either Jason Scanes ALP or Jack Dempsey IND tip Pitt and his hated Indue Card out of Parliament.

    I hope this is the way it ends up. Keith Pitt is the Coalition Minister who wants to put oil and gas rigs in the sea just off the Northern Beaches and Central Coast.

    Don’t be surprised if this issue is giving Sophie Scamps a lot of traction in Mackellar.

  6. sprocket_ at 6:58 am

    9 days out and no sign of anti-ALP hysteria from the Murdoch tabloids… and no Yellow Clive

    Even The Cave’s The Worst Australian newspaper was toned right down today.

  7. Further comment re the seat of Hinkler. Noticed a comment that the Greens have preferenced Jack Dempsey IND ahead of Jason Scanes ALP on their how to vote cards. This could prove to help Dempsey if he and Scanes are close?

  8. ausdavo @ #57 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 8:38 am

    Further comment re the seat of Hinkler. Noticed a comment that the Greens have preferenced Jack Dempsey IND ahead of Jason Scanes ALP on their how to vote cards. This could prove to help Dempsey if he and Scanes are close?

    The Greens’ ingrained hatred of Labor knows no bounds it seems.

  9. It may do, but Greens voters don’t tend to closely follow HTV anyway, so if Dempsey and Scanes are close Scanes would likely have the advantage on Greens preferences.

  10. bc @ #1 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 2:52 am

    I tend to find that identify politics tends to be the domain of the right.

    Unfortunately, the way it often goes is..

    Right-Winger: Blokes in skirts playing womens’ sport! Blokes in dresses in womens’ toilets! Teachers convincing kiddies to get sex changes!
    Labor:
    Disengaged Voter: Bloody Labor, always banging on about trans rights instead of important issues

  11. Max

    “ Maybe we could just expel them from the federation….works for just about everyone (apologies to my left-leaning Qld family members, for whom it wouldn’t work at all)…”

    The Cronus family resemble that remark. But as I’ve said before about up here, we can’t defend the indefensible.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:29 am
    Get this! The Young Liberals facebook page are saying that Scott Morrison won the 3rd Debate last night!

    There’s nothing like self-delusion. Election night will be somewhat of a surprise for these young folk I imagine. Good.

  13. Maybe I’m missing something, but MRP seems woefully unprepared to deal with 3rd parties and strategic voting.

    Just looking at demographics, this election is likely to see a swing against the greens in the 30-50, educated, rich demographic. As well as a swing towards them in the 18-25 demographic.

    But the caveat is that the swing against them isn’t because rich 30-50 year olds are liking the greens less, it’s only going to be visible in seats with a teal independent.

    So, a demographic analysis says that the greens can’t win any of their target seats, because greens voters will tactically vote for a non existent teal independent instead of the greens

  14. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:39 am
    Morning all. Raining. Grey. Wet. Low clouds.

    120mm in our part of Brissie in the last 24hr, enough we say.

  15. Cronus @ #66 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 8:47 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:29 am
    Get this! The Young Liberals facebook page are saying that Scott Morrison won the 3rd Debate last night!

    There’s nothing like self-delusion. Election night will be somewhat of a surprise for these young folk I imagine. Good.

    It’s the Blue Kool Aid.

    Though the funnier part of the story is that Labor, via friendlyjordies, have a Sydney Shock Jock, Marcus Paul in the Morning, on their side and he put the Young Libs’ post up on his page. The replies from people to it are hilarious!

  16. Although we tend to live in Echo chambers I’m getting a vibe in Longman that is not indicating Terry Young will get back in, he’s been completely invisible since he was elected.
    Having said that LOTs of retirees from NSW & Vic have moved up to Bribie island during the pandemic so perhaps that will make a difference.

    And as far as the Mark Knight cartoon, I’m absolutely certain Menzies would be handing out HTV cards for Monique Ryan not Frydenberg. Menzies would be absolutely appalled by what the Liberal party has become and likely would be working with Ryan and the other teals to create a new centre right party.

  17. 290 mm of rain in our part of Brissie so far this month (as of this morning). Typical average rainfall for Brissie for the entire month of May is normally about 50mm.

    And there’s still more to come. BOM Predicting another 60mm today.

  18. Cronus @ #68 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 8:50 am

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:39 am
    Morning all. Raining. Grey. Wet. Low clouds.

    120mm in our part of Brissie in the last 24hr, enough we say.

    Not going to happen I’m afraid. I read the other day that a lot of this rain is a result of the ice caps at the poles melting and feeding into the atmosphere.

    At least we aren’t suffering the other side of the equation, extreme droughts.

  19. Golden Smaug, you’re correct. Menzies was not averse to creating a new political party if the old one had lost its way.

  20. ‘Voice endeavour says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:50 am

    Maybe I’m missing something, but MRP seems woefully unprepared to deal with 3rd parties and strategic voting.

    Just looking at demographics, this election is likely to see a swing against the greens in the 30-50, educated, rich demographic. As well as a swing towards them in the 18-25 demographic.

    But the caveat is that the swing against them isn’t because rich 30-50 year olds are liking the greens less, it’s only going to be visible in seats with a teal independent.

    So, a demographic analysis says that the greens can’t win any of their target seats, because greens voters will tactically vote for a non existent teal independent instead of the greens’
    ——————————————————–
    True. True. Good points. All the polling is telling us that the 90% of voters who have stubbornly voted against the Greens are finally coming to their senses and that the Greens are going to win government.

    I am still waiting for an explanation from the Greens about how their zero extinction by 2030 is consistent with Darwinian evolution. I can understand doctrinaire reds going for a target like that. But what has happened to the old biodiversity Greens? Run out of Greenstown?

  21. C@T

    I wouldn’t mind being a fly on the wall at the Young Libs Wake on election night. Which leads me to Morrison’s concession speech. I suspect many bludgers will be a little disappointed though not surprised. It will be short, devoid of grace and will blame everyone and everything else other than himself.

  22. C@tmomma at 8:56 am
    Not so much the ice caps as the warming oceans. Warmer water –> More water vapor. Droughts ? Wait for the next El Nino , we’ve just been spared that fun due to an unusual La Nina double up. All that extra moisture and so plant growth should make the next conflagration in an El Nino quite ‘exciting’ .

  23. C@T

    “ At least we aren’t suffering the other side of the equation, extreme droughts.”

    I agree, the rain is far preferable to drought and at least things are very very green. It really is as though the tropics are moving further south.

  24. Leon Cameron has called time as GWS coach. Players have just been told. Leon will coach this weekend before Mark McVeigh takes over as caretaker.

  25. Shellbell says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:54 am
    Sydney now past 1400mm by mid May. Annual is 1200mm.

    The climate change denial line is becoming much harder to run these days, except by Matt Canavan.

  26. I caught a snippet of John Hewson on the Project. From what I saw he seemed to think the (Teal) independents would remain for some time in the seats they win. Also he seemed to foreshadow a restructuring of the Liberal party if they lost the election.

  27. Morrison will insincerely chunder through a reasonable concession speech although not without a couple of swipes.

    I doubt we’ll get anything as bad as Turnbull’s speech when he didn’t even actually lose.

  28. What’s happening to me Toto, I’m beginning to think Labor does have a chance.
    ===================
    Don’t you dare. Hold your position soldier. Stay a true disbeliever.

  29. Voice endeavour @ Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:50 am
    “Maybe I’m missing something, but MRP seems woefully unprepared to deal with 3rd parties and strategic voting.

    Just looking at demographics, this election is likely to see a swing against the greens in the 30-50, educated, rich demographic. As well as a swing towards them in the 18-25 demographic.

    But the caveat is that the swing against them isn’t because rich 30-50 year olds are liking the greens less, it’s only going to be visible in seats with a teal independent.

    So, a demographic analysis says that the greens can’t win any of their target seats, because greens voters will tactically vote for a non existent teal independent instead of the greens”

    The 125 or so sample in each seat, as performed by YouGov, should allow for seat by seat variation to a greater extent than a nationwide poll. However, it may not be as useful for individual seats as a larger seat-based stratified (or adjusted) sample. So seat-based tracking polls as employed by the big two political parties would be the (expensive) polling to beat, provided of course that the right seats are being monitored.

  30. citizen

    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:02 am
    “Bellwether says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:47 am
    Morrison is a loose unit.”
    “Or perhaps a loose goose.”

    One thing I’ll say about Morrison in regard to this election is that he has been consistent, consistently bad. His judgement has been absolutely atrocious at every turn. I can’t think of even one prudent move that he’s made. Even better, he’s been the architect of his own demise.

  31. Cronus – it’s I think generally accepted that Labor in 2019 had a strategy for Turnbull they failed to adapt to Morrison. In 2022 I would say Morrison has trotted out the same strategy used on Shorten and failed to adapt it for Albo and can’t understand why it isn’t working again.

  32. Arky @ #84 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:10 am

    Morrison will insincerely chunder through a reasonable concession speech although not without a couple of swipes.

    I doubt we’ll get anything as bad as Turnbull’s speech when he didn’t even actually lose.

    I’m not sure that any concession speech will ever match Turnbull’s bitter, drunken “victory” speech in 2016. That was truly one for the ages, especially in contrast to Shorten’s sprightly “we didn’t quite win but jeez we gave it a red hot go!” speech.

  33. Interesting, Albo campaigning in Gladstone this morning – O’Dowd retiring (on 8.7%). If Labor are thinking it’s a possibility, the portents of a swing are firming????

  34. Cronus @ #87 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:12 am

    citizen

    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:02 am
    “Bellwether says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:47 am
    Morrison is a loose unit.”
    “Or perhaps a loose goose.”

    One thing I’ll say about Morrison in regard to this election is that he has been consistent, consistently bad. His judgement has been absolutely atrocious at every turn. I can’t think of even one prudent move that he’s made. Even better, he’s been the architect of his own demise.

    Exactly how he’s been throughout his Prime Ministership. The leopard can’t change his spots.

  35. Two final points before I am off at work:

    It isn’t just Albo arguing that Morrison is NOT a good economic manager. This article points out that the IMF data shows that Australia’s covid recovery has been far from “leading the world”.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/scott-and-josh-superior-economic-managers-not-according-to-the-imf/

    Labor (assuming they take office) will have to look further at car regulations and emissions. There are ways this could be sold as helping people to get more fuel efficient vehicles. This link is to a story on a decision of the EU states to ensure no petrol or diesel cars will be on sale there by 2035. The rules will be drafted by September. This will have an impact on the whole industry. We might as well plan for an EV future because it is coming whether we are ready for it or not.
    https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/eu-lawmakers-back-effective-ban-new-combustion-engine-cars

  36. Arky says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:18 am
    Cronus – “it’s I think generally accepted that Labor in 2019 had a strategy for Turnbull they failed to adapt to Morrison. In 2022 I would say Morrison has trotted out the same strategy used on Shorten and failed to adapt it for Albo and can’t understand why it isn’t working again.”

    Perfect examples of fighting the previous war and failing to adapt to new circumstances.

  37. ltep says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:41 am

    It may do, but Greens voters don’t tend to closely follow HTV anyway, so if Dempsey and Scanes are close Scanes would likely have the advantage on Greens preferences.

    This is yet another example of the Greens adopting tactics that they hope will result in a Labor candidate losing. This is a principal goal of Green campaigning: setting out to award wins to parties other than Labor wherever feasible. They will try to win on their own account, naturally and where this is not possible, in the clinches they try to make sure that another 3rd-voice candidate wins.

    They are an anti-Labor outfit.

  38. Arky @ #84 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:10 am

    Morrison will insincerely chunder through a reasonable concession speech although not without a couple of swipes.

    I doubt we’ll get anything as bad as Turnbull’s speech when he didn’t even actually lose.

    I’d expect Morrison would have one eye on his next hustle and would attempt a gracious speech. Whether he can manage to pull that off is an open question.

  39. Click bait headlines are annoying and misleading, especially if written using the passive voice:

    Independents under fire over Chinese event

    Then you read:

    The Coalition’s Simon Birmingham has targeted Nicolette Boele and candidate Kylea Tink over their appearance at a Chinese community charity event.

    (SMH)

  40. Mundo

    Don’t leave me alone and frightened.

    I dare not to dream until Antony Green tells me I can. Hopefully that will be by 7.30 on 21/5.

  41. To misquote Robot in ‘Lost in Space’…

    WARNING! WARNING! DANGER POLLBLUDGERS!

    I’ve seen a number of posts that assume Labor will win.

    Such posts are first-order temptation of the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing!

    Posts from Labor-friendlys need to be couched in language such as ‘If/should Labor/Albo win…’

    ‘When Labor win…’ or similar places you, the poster, at risk of being personally responsible for the re-election of the worst govt, running just about the worst campaign I can remember.

  42. Socrates

    “ Labor (assuming they take office) will have to look further at car regulations and emissions. There are ways this could be sold as helping people to get more fuel efficient vehicles. This link is to a story on a decision of the EU states to ensure no petrol or diesel cars will be on sale there by 2035. The rules will be drafted by September. This will have an impact on the whole industry. We might as well plan for an EV future because it is coming whether we are ready for it or not.”

    I completely agree. It’s time.

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