The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.
Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.
As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.
Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:
• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.
• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.
• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.
• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.
• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.
• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.
These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.
Cronus says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:14 am
Bludging
“ At all times, politics is about voters. It’s about the people. Morrison thinks it’s about him and some notion of his destiny. Consequently he’s made himself an issue. One of the worst of politicians is about to lose to one of the best.”
The opponents certainly could not be more different, one entirely self-centred, the other with a history of thinking about others and what’s best for the nation. I often think that this is also the difference between Liberal and Labor at their hearts.
____________________________________
A few of the undecided pub commenters said they favoured Albanese because he seemed genuine. One, I think, nailed it when he said that the closing statements decided it for him. Morrison talked about ‘you’ while Albanese talked about ‘we’. He liked ‘we’.
JenAuthor says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:24 am
Interesting, Albo campaigning in Gladstone this morning – O’Dowd retiring (on 8.7%). If Labor are thinking it’s a possibility, the portents of a swing are firming????
—————
It would be nice to think so. However both leaders have been in a range of more or less marginal seats and depending on the particular seat could be consistent with either a defensive or positive strategy – eg multiple SfM visits to Parramatta.
Also both camps know that the media is keeping close tabs on who’s going where and is ready to spin narratives accordingly. Both parties can play to a narrative that they are kicking goals and making inroads by having the leader occasionally visit a long shot seat.
”
jt1983says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:47 am
It’s not all that baffling … in fact it’s pretty consistent. Welcome to the new world.
I don’t buy the ALP PV is that low in VIC.
I’m not especially concerned.
”
I am baffled because I am of the opinion that in a Change election the new governing party should get 40% PV.
Whether you are concerned or not doesn’t matter by because it is larger sample normal Victoria wise.
Also, UAP+ON is polling 8.3% PV in Victoria. No wonder Morrison is talking gender wars.
Morrison as Ambassador to France would be an appropriate appointment.
Luigi Smith @ #130 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:04 am
ABC cuts away from iBirmingham for no particular reason other than that he was droning on and on….
The time thay are a changin….
From previous thread…
Firefox @ #854 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:04 pm
See, this is what annoys me about how politicians talk.
Leaving aside anything else, TNL are stronger than the Greens on this issue. So no, the Greens are not “the only party” with such a plan.
Labor, Liberals, Greens… they all pull this nonsense.
DRDR says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:06 am
Bludgingsays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:28 am
This is yet another example of the Greens adopting tactics that they hope will result in a Labor candidate losing. This is a principal goal of Green campaigning: setting out to award wins to parties other than Labor wherever feasible. They will try to win on their own account, naturally and where this is not possible, in the clinches they try to make sure that another 3rd-voice candidate wins.
They are an anti-Labor outfit.
_____________
Briefly doing delusional again……
My observations are reality-casting. The Greens are quite open about their ambitions. They want Labor to lose. They say so every day.
Think about it. The Greens know they cannot obtain anywhere near enough seats to enact their policies. Their only hope is to coerce a minority Labor college into enacting Green policies. This has become an openly stated Green goal. This is predicated on Labor not winning. The Greens try to ensure that Labor do not win. This suits their purposes. A strong, successful majority Labor government is never going to bend to the Greens. So the Greens will try to make sure such a government is never elected, and this means hand-to-hand electoral combat with Labor.
This makes perfect sense. It explains the ceaseless Labor-hostile polemics. It explains their Q-like fabrications, lies and Labor-blaming. It explains their dreadful sanctimony and self-righteous moralising.
Inherently, the Greens will demand of Labor that they betray their own members, supporters and voters, and their commitments to the country as a whole. The
Greens premise their politics on betrayal – on the use of blackmail, threat, protection racket and extortion, and cultivate phobic resentments to justify it. True story. Totally nauseating True Story.
Snappy Tom says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:38 am
Upnorth, in light of mundo’s 8.31 post…
“What’s happening to me Toto, I’m beginning to think Labor does have a chance.”
…I propose that this poster henceforth be known as ‘mundo-Toto’ (note correct capitalisation.) The hyphenation scene was getting a little quiet.
中華民國
mundo really split the sheets in that first week with a bit of grapeshot coming at us. But the cobber is back. We ain’t there yet boys and girls but are a damn sight better than a few weeks ago.
Remeber this campaign is not an election about Albo – it’s a referendum on SfM and his bunch of corrupt bunglers. You gotta frame that argument to family friends and neighbours.
Morrison is about as popular as a an outbreak of pox in a Bangkok brothel.
TPOF @ #146 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:14 am
By saying that Deves is the 21st century Hanson I believe she has been put out there as a lightning rod for socially conservative voters to hook on to. For Hanson the bogeyman was Asians, for Deves it is Transgender athletes. It’s just a hook to hang the socially conservative vote on hopefully for the Liberals.
It’s been raining in Sydney for six months, over 1600 mm since early November, about the same as an average Darwin wet season. During that time it’s rained on about 65% of all days, so 4 or 5 days a week on average.
Enough already.
Dsays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:15 am
Morrison has 9 days!
He’s desperate & nothing would surprise me in the last week up to polling day.
–
It seems the only thing that might have save SfM and his RWNJ hordes might have been Palmer entering from stage right in the last 3 weeks to bombard us with an Anti Albo blitzkreig in advertising like he did to Shorten in 2019. With 900,000 pre polls already in the tank yesterday anything Palmer did now would be too little too late I suspect. All they have left now is the same tropes about Albo being an economic wrecking ball and a Manchurian candidate. Looks right now to me like its game over.
***warning-disturbing agricultural references***
In regards to the discussion concerning ‘loose unit’ I’m prepared to offer a more ‘agricultural’ interpretation.
The term ‘loose pizzled’ aptly describes an unpredictable and often dangerous character in rural work settings.
A bull’s male organ is held externally by a flap of skin referred to the as the pizzle area and if (as is often the case in Bos Indicus cattle) it can be pendulous and prone to swinging around and often ‘missing the mark’ so to speak , during mating.
Unpredictable/useless seems to describe Barnyard to a tee , but other applications I’ll leave to your imaginations.
mundo says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:15 am
I meant Bludging.
As in don’t be freakin’ stupid Bludging.
If you mean to say you think I’m stupid, then thank you for the encouragement. If you disagree with me that would be a note in my favour.
It would make sense for Albo to campaign in Qld…..not much else can be rung out of WA, SA, Tas, Vic at this late stage….but QLD could be a treasure trove if it starts to swing. I can see him largely sticking to NSW and Qld for the remaining days….with occasional trips elsewhere to put out any spot fires
As long as he isnt doing a Hilary in campaigning in out of reach Texas, while Michegan, Pennsylvannia etc are falling into darkness….which doesnt seem to be likely
Greensborough Growler @ #152 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:18 am
Morrison as Australian Attaché to California, based in San Francisco, would be even better. 😀
Good one Dogs Brekky. Needed a laugh.
GG @10.18am
+1
Grime
“ I can’t see Albo and co. giving him a gig.”
Ambassador to Donbass?
Ven
“I am baffled because I am of the opinion that in a Change election the new governing party should get 40% PV.”
Have you reflected that your “baffledness” might be due to your own poor understanding of multiple things that lead you to that conclusion?
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:58 am
Evan @ #108 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 9:42 am
Albo in Flynn this morning. I hope Labor are a chance there, Matt Burnett is a great bloke and candidate.
Just read Nikki Sava about how Morrison’s office is running the campaign of Katherine Deves, no huge surprise that one, Morrison and his inner circle happy to throw transgender kids and young people under the bus for One Nation and Palmer United preferences
Someone just commented on Niki Savva’s article that Katherine Deves is the Liberal’s 21st century Pauline Hanson.
”
Nah, she is the Sarah Palin of Australia.
What is that phrase she said “lipstick on a pig”. 🙂
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:27 am
Greensborough Growler @ #152 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:18 am
Morrison as Ambassador to France would be an appropriate appointment.
Morrison as Australian Attaché to California, based in San Francisco, would be even better.
中华人民共和国
I wouldn’t give the Turds the time of day.
Cronus @ #166 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:28 am
Ambassador to Russia. they love Transphobes and Homophobes over there. He’d be in his element.
GG:” Morrison as Ambassador to France”…..he would achieve the impossible in that role….A rapproachment between France and Russia, with the new allies nukes being targetted on Australia, rather than Europe/USA
PhoenixRED at 0903
The COVID numbers in Victoria are dire. This is very bad. Expect mask mandates in all indoor settings to be reintroduced by the end of the week.
Upnorth @ #169 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:30 am
I’m just thinking of the schadenfreude one would experience watching the Morrison family being surrounded by teh gays 24/7. 😉
Anyway, I’m doing the afternoon shift, 4-8pm, today on the Pre Polls, just to make sure we see the backside of the Liberals.
Snappy Tom says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:55 am
Re the difference between the 2019 and 2022 campaigns…
It was an unforgivable mistake 3 years ago to allow the election to be a referendum on Labor.
————-
Well it was a mistake in retrospect – but I’d wager that at this stage of the campaign in 2019 most of us with full information at the time did not see it that way (mea culpa in my case) – so I kind of think it was a forgivable mistake.
Yes you can point to the failure of the big target strategy by Hewson in 1993 and draw parallels with that (as people have endlessly). But it’s also a mistake I think to view winning elections as something for which there’s a magic formula that will guarantee success every time (and I know you’re not suggesting that).
If the ALP had been elected based on the 2019 platform- and bear in mind it was a close election- that would have given a mandate for a much more thorough reform of some of the least equitable features of the Australian economy and society and put us on a much stronger pathway for dealing with climate change. At the time I think it was a gamble worth taking. The risks were higher but so was the potential payoff (in my view at least). We know now that it was a gamble that didn’t pay off. It would have been unwise of the ALP not to have learned from the experience. I don’t think it was a manifestly wrong strategy from the outset though viewed from the perspective of 2016-2019.
Steve777
For months, The weather has been very stable here in Melbourne town.
Im sure the weather will turn on us at some point.
Grant ExLibiris
Why are you continuing with the scaremongering?
Last night, after reiterating his strong belief that Labor will win easily, Andrew Bolt called in a bloke who seemed to have a good knowledge of how the Yougov poll works, and asked him what the best possible outcome from that poll would be for the Libs if absolutely every close seat it identifies fell their way. The conclusion was that the best they could achieve would be to lose by one seat.
”
Big A Adriansays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:06 am
Sign that Murdoch is accepting the writing on the wall:-
sky news has big banner plastered on their news channel:
“Albanese wins final debate”
”
2 wins and draw especially when you consider Morrison appears so unflappable in those debates and appeared to convey his message in no uncertain terms.
And we all agree that Albanese is not a great orator.
re: the media.
There is no question that most of our media is worse than useless – they are an active blight on our politics and our society. I’ve said this many times on PB.
However.
There is no upside, no mileage, in the ALP pursuing some sort of legislative “fix” for the media – the media cannot be fixed through legislation, and the ALP will only get a bloody nose and lose political capital if they go down that road.
The old media is still under pressure from the new social media order, and is fading in relevance. Social media is outside the reach of the Australian government for the most part anyway. And the real answer to our crappy media lies in the hands of the consumers of that media – if we, the people, actually start to value – and pay for – good quality journalism then we can start to fix the media landscape. While most people are still clicking on clickbait and paying more attention to reality TV and tiktok memes our media by and large is going to deteriorate.
Regardless, I don’t think the ALP should pursue media reform. Sure, keep pushing the fact that large sections of the media are hopelessly biased against the ALP and the ALP don’t get a fair go – push back like the LNP do unfairly and mercilessly against the ABC, but wasting time and energy on a Royal Commission or pointless legislation would just be dumb IMO.
C@t
Hanson went through a couple of other ‘bogeymen’ before she ‘discovered’ Asians. Asians were, I think, her 3rd ‘latch on’ but I can only remember Aborigines/Land Rights. The other possibly something to do with dole bludgers/single mothers.
Victoria at 10.36am
I don’t see the reintroduction of indoor mask mandates as scaremongering. Frankly, it should never have been stopped.
Am I missing something you’re saying?
Bludging
“ It will determine how many seats the Reactionaries – the historically dominant Party in national politics – have in the next Parliament. It also portends the deconstruction of the Liberal Party itself, a Party that has become all but unelectable.”
I think this is one of the most interesting outcomes of this election, what/where next for the Libs. Following 2019, generally speaking, Labor didn’t have a struggle for its identity, more about its leadership and tactics. Otherwise, much else remained the same. A significant Lib loss and the entrance of the Teals has now challenged Lib identity.
Those remaining are almost he definition forced further right in a nation that is becoming more progressive. I can’t see any remaining moderate Libs holding under such a dynamic. Something has to give because the values of the moderates and the hard right are now incompatible. The broad church is an outdated construct that won’t survive reality.
Victoria
Because I know things that you don’t know. It is NOT scaremongering. It is what is actively being discussed across various departments as we speak. Are you a doctor? Do you have insights into what is actually being ‘wargamed’ as we speak as to how we can deal with this pandemic?
The Russians are coming, The Russians are coming…….
“NSW Treasurer Matt Kean has warned the Teal wave threatening to wipe out progressive Liberals could result in their party lurching to the right and becoming the party of “Trump … Putin sympathisers and anti-vaxxers”.
Standing next to embattled Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, who is fighting to retain his seat against Climate 200 candidate Allegra Spender, Mr Kean said the Liberal Party could move to the far right – citing the Republican Party in the United States – if party candidates like Jason Falinski, Dave Sharma and Trent Zimmerman were turfed out by their Teal opponents.
“We’ve seen the impact of what happens when the centre right parties lose moderate voices. Look at the Republican Party, the party of Lincoln, the party that abolished slavery, has now become the party of Trump, the party of Putin sympathisers and anti-vaxxers,” he said.
“That’s not in the Liberal Party’s interest and that’s why we need strong voices like (Liberal MPs) Dave Sharma, Trent Zimmerman and Jason Falinski in the Liberal party room to make sure the Liberal Party remains reflective of the communities that we’re hoping to serve.”
Mr Kean’s comments come as Liberals in once-blue ribbon seats come under intense pressure from Climate 200 candidates running in their electorates on a platform backing action on climate change.”
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/matt-kean-fears-teals-to-turn-libs-into-trump-putin-sympathisers/news-story/c81de82be49a80879c0625794f1b9b7e?amp
Steve777 says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:26 am
It’s been raining in Sydney for six months, over 1600 mm since early November, about the same as an average Darwin wet season. During that time it’s rained on about 65% of all days, so 4 or 5 days a week on average.
Enough already.
———-
Yeah not fun. Melburnians would be happy to take ~200mm off your hands…in 20m instalments over a couple of months, and at night.
Upnorth says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:30 am
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:27 am
Greensborough Growler @ #152 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:18 am
Morrison as Ambassador to France would be an appropriate appointment.
Morrison as Australian Attaché to California, based in San Francisco, would be even better.
中华人民共和国
I wouldn’t give the Turds the time of day.
Sending Morrison to France would be to add insult to injury. That would be about the worst thing we could do. We should certainly try to repair relations with France, with whom Australia has always been close. Morrison disgraced himself. We should remediate the damage he caused.
TPOF
“ If Labor is going to do anything, it should just legislate.”
My heart agrees. Unimpeded influence by monopoly foreign interests is not in Australia’s interest. In this context, is it any less a national security issue than China settling in Honiara?
Jackol at 10.38
I wonder if there’s a pathway to media reform that is simply balanced policy for the present and future.
As with coal mines, let the market take care of traditional media (much as I hate it’s bias.)
Ensure the ‘new media’ environment guarantees diversity.
I’ve no idea how to achieve that, BTW.
Former prime minister Tony Abbott has begged Liberals in his old seat of Warringah to “get behind” controversial candidate Katherine Deves in an attempt to stop volunteers from abandoning her campaign to help the Liberal cause elsewhere.
“The more I see of Katherine Deves the more impressed I am with her courage, with her common sense, with her decency and with quite frankly her capacity to win this seat back for the Liberal Party,” Abbott said in a video sent to members by the Liberal Party’s Warringah federal electorate conference on Thursday.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abbott-begs-liberals-to-get-behind-deves-as-volunteers-abandon-campaign-20220512-p5akmy.html
A gig in the least ‘white’ , least Xtian country might be just the thing for SfM.
Truth in media& make it law!
I actually don’t want Mr Potato Head to lose his seat. As LOTO he is unelectable and I think Labor can extend majority.
And yes, the lid is officially off.
Steve777, do you think Albo’s visit to North Sydney means Renshaw is close to Tink on primaries ?
Non-scientific data points re Cowper.
Had been quietly hopeful the teal independent Caz Heise would have a chance. Vibe here in Coffs is quite something: never seen so many yard signs or volunteers around town for any election in my lifetime. Much more prominent than Oakeshott last time, at least here in Coffs. Labor doing their bit and running quiet, Greens not so helpful but not a force here anyway. Nats having to spend on paid advertising, also hitherto unseen.
Prepoll voting today was a sad reality check. Oldie after oldie after oldie in line with their National Party how to votes firmly in hand. Indie and Labor volunteers confirmed the same story has been playing out all week. They may not have yard signs up, but the conservative retiree brigade is still dominant here.
Polling day could be a different demographic and there are smaller, more progressive corners to the electorate. Hope I’m completely wrong, but not so optimistic anymore that the forces for good can rely on Cowper to contribute to the scoreboard this time.
My full respect to Caz and her volunteers nonetheless, such an outstanding campaign.
“ Morrison as Ambassador to France would be an appropriate appointment.”
Or to California, or Russia.
Why give HIM any reward?
How about Morrison as ‘ambassador’ to the Malabar Hilton? Far more suitable.
“ I actually don’t want Mr Potato Head to lose his seat. As LOTO he is unelectable and I think Labor can extend majority.”
Didn’t we all think Tony Abbott was unelectable?
Shellbell says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 8:54 am
Sydney now past 1400mm by mid May. Annual is 1200mm
send the bill to Howard Abbott & Scott
I wonder if mask requirements would not be reintroduced in Vic until after the election. Unfortunately, and ridiculously, it’s become a politically charged issue linked to memories of the 2020 and 2021 lockdowns that everyone would prefer to forget.
I think if an immediate return to mask mandates is the health authorities’ recommendation that’s absolutely what we should do. However I can see a strong political push to hold off for 10 days or so, notwithstanding the likelihood of much higher case numbers. Maybe they would do a halfway house and strongly recommend masking in the interim.