YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8

All revealed from the YouGov MRP poll that was teased yesterday, suggesting Labor is on track for a fairly comfortable parliamentary majority in its own right.

The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.

Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.

As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.

Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:

• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.

• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.

• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.

• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.

• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.

• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.

These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8”

Comments Page 1 of 20
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  1. Can we see the results seat by seat on this poll? I am interested on the result in my seat of Petrie which has gone with government at every election except for one occasion since 1975.

    Although these are small samples from each seat it would he interesting to see how right or wrong the margins are.

    What is the margin of error on this big poll?

  2. clem attlee says Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 12:56 am

    Labor must absolutely leave identity politics in the dustbin, if it to prosper. It needs to govern by appealing to bread and butter issues that resonate with ordinary Australians living in the suburbs.

    I tend to find that identify politics tends to be the domain of the right.

  3. Reposted from the previous post (I’ll defer to WBs analysis re South Australia):
    Looking at those YouGov individual seat projections, it looks like their figures fall within the moe being indicated by the 2pp projection of more traditional polling in most ALP V LIB contests, although their Queensland results are at the bottom end of the range.
    It does look as though there is a very strong divergence from traditional poll results in LIB heartland seats being contested by independents. Their treatment of demographic data for those seats may not be very useful for what is looking more and more like a split in the traditional Liberal voting base.
    I think that may be worsened by the vote for Independents in those seats being subject to a bandwagon effect if people start to think Teal independents are a real alternative and not just a protest vote and a proportion of ALP and Green voters decide to cast tactical votes.


  4. bc says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 2:52 am
    …
    I tend to find that identify politics tends to be the domain of the right.

    Morrison goes straight to identity politics.
    The problem is wage theft and Morrison starts prattling on about small business owners.

  5. Thanks for the debate commentary, Bludgers! So much better than actually watching – my BP and stress levels have been spared.
    Having voted means I have that monkey off my back .

    Anyone have any more info on Gilmore? Am hoping that Fiona Phillips wins that seat.

    Off topic, feel so sorry for Nick Cave losing his second son. There was mention of Jethro suffering from schizophrenia and having had close family members with this, he has my deepest sympathy.
    That constant fear on their behalf , loving who they are but knowing their actions can be so unpredictable and out of character , stays with me long after they’ve died.
    Reading this below was so poignant…the old friends describing the funny creative person they lost touch with.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/jethro-lazenby-nick-cave-son-death-mother-drugs-b999373.html

  6. Labor’s internal polling of key marginal seats has confirmed a visceral dislike of Morrison, adding weight to the complaint of moderate Liberals that he is the biggest drag on their vote. Although it is high everywhere, his unpopularity soars among women where his net approval rating is in the minus-20s. Among men it is in the minus-teens.

    The biggest turnoff nominated by voters is his refusal to accept responsibility, which explains why Labor’s “that’s not my job” ad, and Anthony Albanese’s use of it in the closing stages of the Nine debate, has cut through.

    According to one source familiar with the Liberals’ internal polling, 70 per cent of Liberal voters defecting to the teal independents have been driven by their dislike of Morrison. The primary vote of moderate Liberals in those half-a-dozen blue-ribbon seats plunged to between the mid-30s and the low 40s. They need to get their primary vote up around 45 per cent to survive.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-s-strategy-a-political-masterstroke-or-moral-failure-20220511-p5akb9.html

  7. The premise that there is any such thing as a moderate Liberal or if there is any such variety of Liberal that they have any sway in their Party is demonstrably wrong.

    They are Reactionaries, top to bottom.

  9. The overall picture being set here seems in tune with other polling, but there are definite glitches. Having the likes of Parkes, Mallee and Ballarat as moderately close seats is laughable. There is also at least 5 seats where an Independent candidate is all but unrepresented despite being the obvious threat in that seat.

  10. I note the Oz have taken to calling the Teals ‘Climate 200 Independents’ as if was an official political party (which a couple of the Libs have been claiming.

  11. Straw Poll on YouGov MRP poll, result in Wentworth is totally implausible.

    YouGov has Sharma primary 1% lower than 2019, that is so far off & if interpolated against their other results… Labor 90 seats is likely outcome

  12. ”
    andrewmcksays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 3:01 am
    ………
    …………..
    I think that may be worsened by the vote for Independents in those seats being subject to a bandwagon effect if people start to think Teal independents are a real alternative and not just a protest vote and a proportion of ALP and Green voters decide to cast tactical votes.
    ”

    Agree.

  13. They won’t call the election result that early, Scott. I’m predicting around 9pm eastern time. No way they call it before at least some of the WA results start to trickle in.

  14. It seems the trend is showing the lib/nats combined primary vote is stuck around 36%

    The result federal government is defeated will be called early 7-7:30pm on the night of the Election

  15. Albanese wins Seven “pub test” debate verdict from “undecided voters” 50-34, 16% undecided

    Macquarie 50-25
    Chisholm 52-35
    Lilley 54-41
    Boothby 52-32
    Hasluck 44-44
    Solomon 50-25
    Bass 52-32
    — Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) May 11, 2022

    So this exercise in forced preference allocation results in 16% of 8% still undecided. That’s 1.3% of electorate ( that watched ) on the fence.. the preference flow to Labor is way past normal election.. is this worthless analysis correct?

  16. ”
    Centaur21says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:04 am
    Higgins to Labor and I’ll eat my hat.
    ”

    We will not know if that happens. So my suggestion is that focus your camera on your mouth and post a few photos in PB eating your hat without revealing yourself if ALP wins Higgins. 🙂

  17. Nikki Savva does not miss the cause of the LNP plunge in the polls…

    This petty, patronising campaign on top of Morrison’s own poor behaviour on so many fronts has seen his problem with women go from bad to worse.

    Labor’s internal polling of key marginal seats has confirmed a visceral dislike of Morrison, adding weight to the complaint of moderate Liberals that he is the biggest drag on their vote. Although it is high everywhere, his unpopularity soars among women where his net approval rating is in the minus-20s. Among men it is in the minus-teens.

    The biggest turnoff nominated by voters is his refusal to accept responsibility, which explains why Labor’s “that’s not my job” ad, and Anthony Albanese’s use of it in the closing stages of the Nine debate, has cut through.

    According to one source familiar with the Liberals’ internal polling, 70 per cent of Liberal voters defecting to the teal independents have been driven by their dislike of Morrison. The primary vote of moderate Liberals in those half-a-dozen blue-ribbon seats plunged to between the mid-30s and the low 40s. They need to get their primary vote up around 45 per cent to survive.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-s-strategy-a-political-masterstroke-or-moral-failure-20220511-p5akb9.html

  18. BTRProducer says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:48 am
    They won’t call the election result that early, Scott. I’m predicting around 9pm eastern time. No way they call it before at least some of the WA results start to trickle in.
    ———————————————-

    I guess it will depend on the lib/nats combined primary vote

    If it is near 36% , the election is not close

  20. 8h ago
    23.06
    Scarr says the polling in the West Australian tomorrow shows 53% to 47% of voters see Albanese as a better economic manager.

    Toast!

  22. ”
    Scepticsays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:52 am
    Albanese wins Seven “pub test” debate verdict from “undecided voters” 50-34, 16% undecided

    Macquarie 50-25
    Chisholm 52-35
    Lilley 54-41
    Boothby 52-32
    Hasluck 44-44
    Solomon 50-25
    Bass 52-32
    — Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) May 11, 2022

    So this exercise in forced preference allocation results in 16% of 8% still undecided. That’s 1.3% of electorate ( that watched ) on the fence.. the preference flow to Labor is way past normal election.. is this worthless analysis correct?
    ”

    I don’t understand your analysis so I can’t decide whether it is worthless or not. 🙂

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The NineFax journos give their debate verdicts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/who-won-the-final-leaders-debate-our-experts-give-their-verdicts-20220511-p5akhp.html
    And The Australian’s “experts”, say Morrison slightly edged Albanese out in said debate.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-election-2022-expert-verdicts-on-the-third-leaders-debate-between-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese/news-story/b10ad1f4eeba4866f9d92cb44c50e778
    Any lingering doubts moderate Liberals might have had that Scott Morrison was prepared to sacrifice heartland seats, including Kooyong held by his Treasurer and deputy Josh Frydenberg, to harvest votes in the regions and outer suburbs have been dispelled, writes Niki Savva who wonders whether Morrison’s strategy is a political masterstroke or moral failure.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-s-strategy-a-political-masterstroke-or-moral-failure-20220511-p5akb9.html
    Jennifer Hewett writes that it took just one word from Anthony Albanese. Scott Morrison has leapt on it with the ferocity of a hungry dog spying a meaty bone lying on the ground. A desperate prime minister knows this attack probably offers his last chance to define the opposition leader as a terrible risk to the economy and all household budgets.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/like-a-hungry-dog-a-desperate-morrison-attacks-loose-albanese-20220511-p5akfa
    The PM previously said Albanese had no power to do anything about wages – now he’s arguing the Labor leader wants to do too much, writes Katherine Murphy who watched last night’s debate.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/12/the-pm-previously-said-albanese-had-no-power-to-do-anything-about-wages-now-hes-arguing-the-labor-leader-wants-to-do-too-much
    It shouldn’t be such a shock that Anthony Albanese believes the minimum wage should rise with inflation, explains Greg Jericho. He shows how, for some time, real wages increase has lagged behind that of productivity.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/may/12/it-shouldnt-be-such-a-shock-that-anthony-albanese-believes-the-minimum-wage-should-rise-with-inflation
    Labor would win government in its own right and secure a modest majority with 80 seats in parliament if an election were held today according to the most sophisticated poll conducted across Australia measuring voter intention in every electorate in the country, writes Simon Benson about The Australian’s big YouGov poll.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/federal-election-2022-labor-to-win-modest-majority-with-80-seats-yougov-poll-predicts/news-story/84c4634d4fd3671e5194a2c5739b3e2c
    Momentum towards Labor is all but missing in Queensland, but Labor may not need it says Cameron Atfield.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-struggles-to-win-over-queensland-but-it-may-not-need-to-20220508-p5ajiz.html
    With falling real incomes and rising prices many people don’t believe the story of prosperity Scott Morrison is preaching, writes Richard Denniss.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/11/with-falling-real-incomes-and-rising-prices-many-people-dont-believe-the-story-of-prosperity-scott-morrison-is-preaching
    The recent spurt in inflation has little do with workers being paid more, economists say, warning the claim that wage increases could set off inflation is “over-the-top alarmism”, reports Peter Hannam.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/11/over-the-top-alarmism-economists-dismiss-concerns-wage-rises-cause-inflation
    “If you believe the commentariat, one of Labor’s most underwhelming leaders in recent memory is headed for the Lodge, flanked by ministerial retreads from the failed Rudd-Gillard era, promising little in the way of reform beyond greater deficits, higher social welfare spending, a faster trajectory to net zero and, this week, increased wages, which is not in the remit of government to deliver.”, whines a flailing Peta Credlin.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/lose-quiet-aussies-and-lose-the-election/news-story/44fe5e6dd3c5172b0fa3d6762236a18b
    Katina Curtis tries to make sense of Barnaby Joyce’s NPC appearance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-says-selfish-independents-must-name-who-they-support-20220511-p5aken.html
    Barnaby Joyce’s return to centre stage was always going to be unpredictable, says Gabrielle Chan who also did her best to decipher what Joyce was saying.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/12/the-nosebleed-seats-barnaby-joyces-return-to-centre-stage-was-always-going-to-be-unpredictable
    A Labor MP in Australia’s most marginal electorate has condemned a “disgusting smear campaign” from an anti-abortion group backing the Coalition which claims the opposition wants to enact an “extreme abortion agenda”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/11/labor-denounces-disgusting-smear-campaign-on-abortion-in-australias-most-marginal-seat
    According to NineFax, Labor has softened its stance for a 5.1 per cent increase in the minimum wage after a political firestorm over the cost to employers, saying it is yet to decide whether to set the target in a formal submission if it wins the May 21 election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-leaves-room-to-retreat-from-albanese-s-wage-rise-call-20220511-p5akes.html
    The editorial in the SMH calls for a minimum wage rise is needed but says it is no substitute for real economic reform.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/minimum-wage-rise-is-needed-but-no-substitute-for-real-economic-reform-20220511-p5akgp.html
    Economist Warren Hogan says that Australia must avoid entrenching a US-style ‘working poor’. On the face of it, he seems to be supporting Labor’s positions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-must-avoid-entrenching-a-us-style-working-poor-20220511-p5akbe.html
    “Albo, there are much bigger issues in this election than Scott Morrison’s ‘smirk’”, sneers Amanda Vanstone.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7734098/albo-there-are-much-bigger-issues-in-this-election-than-scott-morrisons-smirk/?cs=14258
    Stephen Duckett tells us what he would do if I were the Minister for Health and Ageing in the next government. He says a new minister in any portfolio has two tasks: fix the past and fix the future.
    https://johnmenadue.com/what-i-would-do-if-i-was-the-minister-for-health-and-ageing-in-the-next-government/
    And John Dwyer is concerned that healthcare reform is not featuring in the current election.
    https://johnmenadue.com/healthcare-reform-is-not-featuring-in-the-current-election/
    Australian taxpayers forked out almost $20 million as an incentive for the Northern Territory to sell the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company, sparking Labor to claim that Prime Minister Scott Morrison actively encouraged the deal when he was treasurer, writes Anthony Galloway.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australian-taxpayers-paid-almost-20-million-to-sell-the-port-of-darwin-20220511-p5akc8.html
    This Government seems to have departed from a tradition of liberal conservatism and broken a fundamental continuity that has defined the Coalition since Robert Menzies, writes Joel Jenkins.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/net-zero-is-dead-so-is-the-coalition-we-used-to-know,16345
    Former submariner Rex Patrick has found time to stick a periscope up the collective clacker of the Australian government over its cruel treatment of its poorest neighbour. Senator Patrick’s battle with the bureaucracy reveals Australia’s problem with transparency, reports Callum Foote.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/bernard-collaery-timor-leste-foi-rex-patrick/
    Uncertainty across the electoral map and a high-profile challenge against sitting MP Trent Zimmerman has led both major parties to conclude that Labor could snag the traditional Liberal seat of North Sydney, writes Tom McIlroy.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/major-parties-say-labor-could-snatch-north-sydney-20220511-p5akfp
    Robert Harley lays out the three key issues missing from the housing affordability debate.
    https://www.afr.com/property/residential/the-three-key-issues-missing-from-the-housing-affordability-debate-20220511-p5akd5
    Alexandra Smith looks at what Chris Minns is drilling into his party as they sniff a chance of victory in NSW. Minns has described a bleak outlook for NSW families’ real incomes if inflation continues.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/eye-on-the-prize-the-reason-labor-ditched-nurse-to-patient-ratios-20220511-p5akc1.html
    A trial program to give women fleeing violent relationships financial support is taking more than four weeks on average to get the money to them while demand is almost twice as strong as the government anticipated, explains Katina Curtis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/delays-and-high-demand-hamper-payments-to-escape-domestic-violence-20220510-p5ajxq.html
    Michaela Whitbourn reports that yesterday the court heard that a former elite soldier who has been accused of murdering an Afghan prisoner with his friend Ben Roberts-Smith was twice invited by the Australian Federal Police to an interview but his lawyers declined on his behalf.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-s-friend-declined-interview-with-australian-federal-police-court-told-20220511-p5ak99.html
    Electricity prices are spiking, ten times as much as normal. Bruce Mountain puts forward some educated guesses as to why. He praises South Australia which he says by 2021, more than two-thirds of its electricity came from variable renewable generation, more than in any developed economy we know of.
    https://theconversation.com/electricity-prices-are-spiking-ten-times-as-much-as-normal-here-are-some-educated-guesses-as-to-why-182849
    Professor John Wilson has walked away from Melbourne’s major trauma centre after 30 years, citing untenable and deteriorating conditions in Victoria’s health system.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/a-dire-situation-that-is-unprecedented-senior-alfred-doctor-quits-warning-of-mass-burnout-20220511-p5akcx.html
    Crypto assets were supposed to behave quite differently to conventional investments. It turns out that they do, but not in a good way, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz in the wake of the currency’s $2 trillion meltdown that is ringing bells.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/crypto-s-2-2-trillion-meltdown-rings-alarm-bells-20220511-p5akbn.html
    Sydney’s Anglican archbishop has warned the church is in a perilous position after bishops narrowly vetoed a statement affirming that marriage is only between a man and a woman. Have at it, worshipers!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/fundamentally-awry-bishops-block-move-to-reject-same-sex-marriage-20220510-p5ak3d.html
    A first-of-its-kind federal study of Native American boarding schools that for over a century sought to assimilate Indigenous children into white society has identified more than 500 student deaths at the institutions so far, but officials say that figure could grow exponentially as research continues. Will an apology be forthcoming?
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-finds-500-native-american-boarding-school-deaths-so-far-20220512-p5akkf.html
    Robert Reich believes that the second American civil war is already happening.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/11/second-american-civil-war-robert-reich
    A New York judge said he’ll lift the former president’s contempt finding if Trump meets certain conditions, including paying $US144,000 in fines he’s racked up so far.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-must-pay-144-000-meet-conditions-to-end-contempt-judge-says-20220512-p5akkd.html

    Cartoon Corner

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  26. bc:
    “I tend to find that identify politics tends to be the domain of the right.”

    Indeed. Just last night, Robert Katter III attempted to get the Queensland Parliament to condemn trans participation in sport.

    And the LNP supported the motion.

    If Deves fails to enter Federal politics, she might find a home with the Kattermites.

  27. I think from this weekend on Morrison will start getting his ‘endorsements’ from NSW Liberals, Grace Tame & Brittany Higgins et al… If you think he’s been squirming under pressure now…

  28. Thanks BK and to all Bludgers for the debate live commentary. Subjecting oneself to SfM’s mendacity for a full hour is going above and beyond- and a noble sacrifice for those who can’t stomach it.

    Interesting that the Yougov MRP and the forecast models are settling around the 80-82 seat mark for the ALP. Applying Bludgertrack at the moment would suggest a bigger win: though I’d be surprised and delighted if the ALP 2PP is actually north of 54 – or 53 for that matter.

  30. “All revealed from the YouGov MRP poll that was teased yesterday, suggesting Labor is on track for a fairly comfortable parliamentary majority in its own right.”

    … and after yesterday’s “pub test”, the ALP trashing of the Coalition can be virtually regarded as a fact. The margin?… That’s the only thing to be determined.

    But wait, the real success of the Teals is also to be determined, which is likely to add to the Liberals’ demise.

    Federal election 2022 in a nutshell:
    – A Progressive turning point for Australia.
    – The Teals novelty.
    – The destruction of the Federal Liberal party: Quo vadis?

  33. “Brisbane in Queensland”…. Is that all?

    Hmm, methink that Newspoll doesn’t know Queenslanders. Queenslanders tend to be rather conservative in their habits (even if that habit-conservatism leads to inconsistencies such as a frequent bashing of the LNP at state level and frequent bashing of the ALP at federal level). But when Queenslanders have decided that they have had enough, they truly rock-and-roll!… If you still have any doubt, just ask Campbell Newman. So, I would suggest that Queensland is going to deliver more than one seat to the ALP, and therefore the bashing of the Coalition is going to be even more substantial than what YouGov is suggesting.

  35. One of the commenters here ( of a conservative persuasion)is hoping to eat the popcorn while watching ALP and Albo chaos take hold should they win. Dream on matey!! Albo learnt some big lessons from the RGR period. Rudd changed the leadership rules so very difficult to get rid of a leader due to Murdoch induced paranoia ( like the ill judged Gillard ascension) , Albo is an underrated guy who will perform above everybody’s expectations, Murdochracys influence is on the way down, in fact Murdoch has jumped ️the shark and even former Murdoch grandees like Ken Cowley don’t think much of Lachlan’s abilities to carry on the right wing vibe in the same intimidating manner , LNP will be the entertainment for the next ten years as they fight it out for the soul of the party – religious looneys vs money motivated “superior types”. Check this out!!!! In supposed conservative Qld, ALP has now been in government for all but 4 of the last 32 years and still the Murdoch paper attacks them virtually every day. But now it only preaches to the converted, could it be that this time Labor nails it? I’ll have my popcorn ready as well watching the Tories explode like an unguided missile- enjoy should ALP win as now looks very likely!!!

  36. The rise of the Greens primary vote across all states may be over-optimistic. I think that the reality of election night may bring the Greens down to reality. Although here in New Farm there is a strong Greens presence, the seat of Brisbane is going to fall to Labor, not the Greens.

  37. Some more analysis of what’s happening in Queensland

    The senior Labor source said the teal phenomenon would be written about for “eons”.

    They said that despite Queensland’s lack of teal candidates, the sentiment that spawned them in other states still exists in the Sunshine State.

    “That varies from Brisbane and Ryan being quite white-hot, to outer suburban not being [white-hot], but it’s still there,” they said.

    “So the LNP are losing primaries on that fact, and they’re also losing primaries on the hard-right front as well.”

    The senior Labor source said 2022 felt like a “change election”. The only question was, they said, which way would that fall.

    “Whether that change is going to Labor or minor parties, we will find out, but there’s no way it’s going towards Morrison in Queensland. It’s just not. You can feel that already,” they said.

    “No-one’s thinking, ‘I’m really worried that my life is going to be worse [under Albanese]’ because they go, ‘I can’t afford petrol and groceries now’.

    “If I was [the Coalition], I would have gone straight to a national security argument and stuck to that.”

    The source said there were signs the blue-collar vote was coming back to Labor, albeit perhaps a little too slowly to make big inroads in Queensland during this electoral cycle.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/labor-struggles-to-win-over-queensland-but-it-may-not-need-to-20220508-p5ajiz.html

  38. If qld swings it will swing hard and the fact smirko has campaigned in seats with a 6-12% margin shows it could happen.

    Ive noticed the media has softened on labor – murdoch is still backing the lnp but by this stage next week that may change.

    With 9 days left anything could happen, but a labor majority govt is looking most likely.

  40. Morning all and thanks BK. I am not surprised that Albo won the debate, but I am more pleasantly surprised that that fact has been unambiguously reported.

    Meanwhile Barnaby Joyce’s farcical display at the NPC yesterday has mercifully vanished from public consciousness. I would think the Nationals would look forward to a Labor majority government and Federal ICAC even less than the Libs.

  41. Centaur21 says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:04 am

    Higgins to Labor and I’ll eat my hat.
    ——————————
    Get yrself an Akubra, which should be nice and chewy, and help scour your guts out.

  42. Only 80 seats?? That would be a crappy result and would allow the LNP to be in a healthy condition to really fight after just one term . Doesn’t make sense considering the newspoll and ipsos polls. But now Lindsay projected to fall ? I’ll take that.

    If Labor pull off victory without any help from QLD that state should be severely punished and starved out of existence

  44. Implied probability of winning from betfair.com
    As at: May-12 (previous week in brackets)
    Coalition majority: 3.1% (4%)
    Coalition minority: 25% (25%)
    Labor minority: 17% (18%)
    Labor majority: 55% (53%)
    Average number of seats LNP seat lost to ALP: 7.3 (6.8)
    MOE (66% CI): 5.2 (5.0)

    Slight move back to the ALP after the YouGov aggregate poll and third debate

  45. leftieBrawler says:

    If Labor pull off victory without any help from QLD that state should be severely punished and starved out of existence
    _________
    So Stalinesque!

  46. I’m really surprised that Poll Bludger decided to do two consecutive daily features on yougov- a set up that cut its teeth in first past the post polling methodology.

  49. The talk here in Hervey Bay is from Independent Jack Dempsey (Mayor of Bundaberg) that Keith Pitt is gone ! I hope either Jason Scanes ALP or Jack Dempsey IND tip Pitt and his hated Indue Card out of Parliament.

  50. the liberals campaign has been the worst since 2010 labor real julia half of mps are not triying with the talk of ndis gath thought morrison wouldput it in an add this is oposit of 2019 where morrison had all the good lines the bill you cant afford and labour could not compete with acseption of lindsay libs look in trouble

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