YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
It’s nailing the colours to the wall is that yougov polling. I still think there is no way to predict it to that level with that sample size.
But what do I know? Nothing.
The MRP is untested here, but it’s not really showing anything new from what we’d see from a reasonable swing to Labor which the national polls are showing already.
Fess,
It’s a secret. But, it’s actually Fiona Martin!
No….we in SA have to claim that piece of work
Looks like YouGov is calling Spud safe in Dickson then. How sad
Evan says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 6:56 pm
Gents, my vote is for the Pollbludger Lefty Pissheads Club, PLPC in other words.
Anyone over 18 allowed, blokes and ladies, only criteria is that you are a genuine lefties and you enjoy a drink or two of any sort, can be non-alcoholic definitely.
We could always have an elite smaller group within the larger group for the hard core pissheads.
Anyway, my suggestions for compromise
中华人民共和国
Rex will be terribly saddened we have dropped his name but I suppose I am ok with PLPC But well ho hum. Anyway as my mate says – “you can call me anything except late for a beer”. Split resolved.
Bag of Otters Noses anyone.
Sorry,
Jen.
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 6:58 pm
“Parliament is really going to miss Nicole Flint.”
The constituency will miss her like a hole in the head.
My email will be so much more joyous to read through.
Acknowledging all the caveats around the YouGov effort…
Still no published research from any organisation that suggests Labor will lose any of its Hunter Valley seats.
Evan @ #840 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 6:56 pm
I’m in. Can’t drink much anymore, but past experience should qualify me! Be warned though, I am more of a cider drinker with some wine/fortified wine now. Does having drunk Stones Green Ginger in the past put me in good company?
@hazza4257 says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 6:57 pm
BeaglieBoy @ #840 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 6:56 pm
Now that we have introduced Monty Python into the conversation I wonder who can squeeze a good Zaphod Beeblebrox or Ford Prefect quote seemlessly into the political discourse
There is a lot to be skeptical about with this new form of poll. Makes for nice reading nonetheless.
________________________
Indeed, but it i the headline numbers or the trend that helps rather than the individual seats, I do find it hard to believe that labor will win Higgins for example. But as Ray (uk) said last night, the polling predicted the trends but failed on the margins and seats, so with that in mind I am happy. The fact is the potential victory of SfM is hanging in the air in exactly the same way that bricks dont. I am sure there is a way out for the LNP but it is in a strategy document, down three flights of stairs in a locked filing cabinet behind a door that says Beware of the Leopard.
On election day, after a win of course, I intend to have a drink that hits you like a slice of lemon wrapped around a brick.
You gov –
80 alp
63 lnp
8 others
6 too close to call..
Smirko needs 3% between now and polling day
Greensborough Growler @ #846 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 6:58 pm
😆
Boinzo: Mate, I will go with your suggestion, I do like my idea of a smaller elite group for us lads who go hard on the beers, as opposed to the casual imbibers.
Oh, imagine if Labor won 86 seats, too afraid to believe it.
Sally Sitou thrashing that nasty Fiona Martin in Reid, yes please
Upnorth at 7.05
Jaguar’s earlobe?
Ocelot’s spleen?
Wolf nipple chips? (Get ’em while they’re hot…)
Tom,
You can join me at the cider drinkers’ table. Pear or Apple? 🙂
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
Not sure what happened there mate. Either I completely misread your comment or you edited it after. It’s been a long day.
Election 2022: Ten-day fix or Scott Morrison’s goose is cooked
By Simon Benson
6:30PM May 11, 2022
There are still just over 10 days to go before the election and anything could happen.
But things will have to start turning sharply in Scott Morrison’s favour if the Coalition has any hope of returning to government.
And there are no signs that this is happening despite Anthony Albanese’s best efforts to lose the election through his persistent gaffes.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-tenday-fix-or-scott-morrisons-goose-is-cooked/news-story/bbf3b5db81d43a2ae70ddf4c142d00a7
Tom, you are definitely included, UpNorth and Beaglie Boy would agree with me. C@t too, for sure, we can celebrate the good Doctor Gordon beating Lucy Wicks in your part of the world
@Woke-pc-thug says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:07 pm
You gov –
80 alp
63 lnp
8 others
6 too close to call..
Smirko needs 3% between now and polling day
___________________
He can get there, just go hard on wage suppression for the poor, a sure fire winner
Then Julian Simmonds Liberal member for Brisbane co-opted and compromised a local catholic priest’s letter.
This is incorrect, Boerwar. Trevor Evans is the MP for Brisbane for the LNP (sits with the Liberals).
Evan @ #864 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:08 pm
So we now have a moderate left faction and a hard left faction already? Bloody politicians the lot of you!
bizarre – Albo in North Sydney, ScoMo in Newcastle.
The Front in “People’s Front” is a synonym for Army. In military terms, particularly in soviet and eastern bloc countries, front was used for what the west called “Army group” which was a group of Armies, which were made up of Corps, which were made up of divisions etc. Of course, nobody deploys troops in those sort of numbers any more so it is rarely mentioned anymore.
So for revolutionary type organisations “Front” implied a massive army.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #870 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:10 pm
In those Western Sydney seats and the Hunter, that he covets. 😀
C@tmomma @ #866 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:09 pm
Apple please. Very drawn to the low sugar Pure Blonde! Very moresome…
The moderate left faction get on the cider, moderately. 🙂
“Then Julian Simmonds Liberal member for Brisbane co-opted and compromised a local catholic priest’s letter.
This is incorrect, Boerwar. Trevor Evans is the MP for Brisbane for the LNP (sits with the Liberals).”
***
Simmonds = LNP member for Ryan
From the YouGov article in the Oz (posted by Hazza 4257)
“The two Northern Territory seats of Solomon and Lingiari would remain comfortably in the Labor column, as would the two ACT seats of Bean and Canberra.”
Er, there are three ACT seats – what happened to Fenner?
B.S. Fairman says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:11 pm
The Front in “People’s Front” is a synonym for Army. In military terms, particularly in soviet and eastern bloc countries, front was used for what the west called “Army group” which was a group of Armies, which were made up of Corps, which were made up of divisions etc. Of course, nobody deploys troops in those sort of numbers any more so it is rarely mentioned anymore.
So for revolutionary type organisations “Front” implied a massive army.
______________________
Dont forget:
Guards Army
Shock Army
Proletarian Brigade
alias – 649pm
I really did think Labor would win Deakin last time – but after many years working in Deakin and surrounding electorates I think the demographics are working against Labor and it’s looking more and more like a mini Aston. While Chisholm I think is getting better for Labor again.
Like a Liberal ‘shock wave’ going east, but leaving seats in its wake that Labor can win.
Upnorth at 7.10
Poor widdle Simon Benson!
One can just read his pain. He just has to find a way to slag Albo.
Actually, the way the campaign’s going, ALP only winning 80 might be a fraction disappointing. Only a fraction.
@hazza4257 says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:10 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
Not sure what happened there mate. Either I completely misread your comment or you edited it after. It’s been a long day.
_________________
Not a problem mate, was going HHGTG, couldn’t find a quick Zaphod, or Ford quote so had to make do with what I had.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:11 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #870 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:10 pm
@Woke-pc-thug says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:07 pm
You gov –
80 alp
63 lnp
8 others
6 too close to call..
Smirko needs 3% between now and polling day
___________________
He can get there, just go hard on wage suppression for the poor, a sure fire winner
In those Western Sydney seats and the Hunter, that he covets.
中华人民共和国
He should send that Deves woman and John Howard together to both. That will be sure fire winner.
‘C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:10 pm
Then Julian Simmonds Liberal member for Brisbane co-opted and compromised a local catholic priest’s letter.
This is incorrect, Boerwar. Trevor Evans is the MP for Brisbane for the LNP (sits with the Liberals).
Firefox says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:12 pm
“Then Julian Simmonds Liberal member for Brisbane co-opted and compromised a local catholic priest’s letter.
This is incorrect, Boerwar. Trevor Evans is the MP for Brisbane for the LNP (sits with the Liberals).”
***
Simmonds = LNP member for Ryan’
===================
Bluey sends his thanks to C@t and Firefox and apologizes to the citizens of Brisbane.
My take on minimum wage is that anyone earning above minimum wage will sympathise with the Tory argument more often than not – that we can’t help our fellow workers keep their head above water because it’ll hurt the economy.
But with so many people doing it so tough right now, Scotty is on the wrong side of the argument. For once, people can actually sympathise with the progressive position.
Tom @ #876 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:12 pm
I support the local brew, Somersby and the original and best, Bulmers and Strongbow. Somersby are taking to making cider out of every fruit they can get their hands on: Blackberry, Watermelon, Mango and Lime. If Labor wins the election I think I’ll try them all on the night. 😀
Having met Clive Palmer and knowing people close to him …. Behind the political charade he is a personable, respectful, generous and intelligent person…. He is no goose
I’m not a uap voter but curious as to why he is spending so much money for basically nothing to gain?
Somebody a while back posted a Aussie Cossack YouTube saying ‘this just lost ScoMo the election..’
Andrew Hirst says ‘Hold my beer!’
https://youtu.be/UjQc1ft9vII
citizen at 7.13pm
Well spotted!
So, either YouGov can’t count, or maybe the most likely outcome is Labor 81…?
Tom says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:12 pm
C@tmomma @ #866 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:09 pm
Tom,
You can join me at the cider drinkers’ table. Pear or Apple?
____________________
I Do prefer the Pangalactic Gargleblaster when i can
Apple please. Very drawn to the low sugar Pure Blonde! Very moresome
Leichhardt is damn close using that new fangled thing in the Oz. 51-49 LNP
Lars Von Trier says:
Dont forget:
Guards Army
Shock Army
Proletarian Brigade
_____________
Shining Path?
DR F….a fine effort with at least 3 or 4 references from HGTTG spliced into it….bravo
If Morrison is smart he will spend some time campaigning in Dickson and Kooyong.
Lars – Those units were smaller than a front. In the soviet system Army was about the size of a western corps. A front was up to about a million troops at the end of the war.
Desperate says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:17 pm
Having met Clive Palmer and knowing people close to him …. Behind the political charade he is a personable, respectful, generous and intelligent person…. He is no goose
I’m not a uap voter but curious as to why he is spending so much money for basically nothing to gain?
_________________
One word, Ego
As long as Bluey helps save the GBR he is forgiven. 🙂
nath says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 7:18 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Dont forget:
Guards Army
Shock Army
Proletarian Brigade
_____________
Shining Path?
________________
Of course nath, thanks for the reminder:
Senderoso Luminoso – Abimael Guzman, the fourth sword of Communism.