YouGov has dropped the first results from Australia’s first ever published MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, which aims for a detailed election prediction by surveying an expansive national sample of 18,923 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate. Its methods are outlined in The Australian by Campbell White of YouGov and University of Sydney data science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff. The method became something of a cause celebre when it predicted the hung parliament at the United Kingdom election in 2017 that crippled the prime ministership of Theresa May, a rare success for the British polling industry in that period. However, it did less well at the subsequent election in 2019, tipping a 28-seat Conservative majority that actually came in at 80.
It seems News Corp plans on getting some bang for its presumably considerable buck here by dealing out results piecemeal, as all we have at this stage is projected results from seats in which independent candidates (plus Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance in Mayo) might be thought competitive. Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.
The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) and Goldstein (52-48), but not in Wentworth (56-44) or Mackellar (53-47), and particularly not in North Sydney and Curtin, where independents are projected to finish a fairly distant third behind Labor. There is also no suggestion of independent Georgia Steele being competitive in Hughes, contrary to some media reports.
Indeed, the North Sydney result is interesting in showing Labor within striking distance at 53-47, consistent with the account of Liberal internal polling by Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper and John Howard’s presence at Trent Zimmerman’s campaign launch last week. It is also encouraging for Labor in crediting them with a 53-47 lead in Boothby, and deficits of only 52-48 in each of their little-rated prospects of Page, Casey and Flinders.
The incumbent cross-benchers are projected to retain their seats, but by a narrower margin than I would have thought likely in the case of Andrew Wilkie in Clark (61-39 over Labor, a swing against him of 10%). Rebekha Sharkie is also credited with a margin of only 52-48 in Mayo, a swing against her of 3%. Zali Steggall is projected to slightly increase her 7.2% margin in Warringah, while a lead of 53-47 is projected for Helen Haines in Indi, compared with her 1.4% winning margin in 2019. The neighbouring seat of Nicholls, where independent Rob Priestly is widely thought to be a show, is not featured.
Also:
• Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor. Van Onselen specified that this was polling conducted by the party’s fractious New South Wales branch, and was not part of the federal party’s tracking polling of 20 target seats.
• Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.
• Day one of pre-polling on Monday drew 309,769 voters. Comparisons with 2019 are complicated by the fact that the pre-poll period has been reduced from three weeks to two: 661,225 pre-poll votes were cast in the entire first week of 2019, a figure low enough to encourage each of the main parties to agree that the first of the three weeks was not worth their bother, followed by 253,684 votes on day one of week two. Antony Green is helpfully plotting the relevant statistics, which point to a substantial upswing in postal vote applications: 13.2% of total enrolment compared with 8.1% at the equivalent point in 2019.
• Michael Gunner resigned as Chief Minister of the Northern Territory yesterday, but will remain the member for his Darwin seat of Fannie Bay. The Northern Territory News rates the favourites to replace him as Nicole Manison, Deputy Chief Minister, member for Wanguri and factional colleague of Gunner in the Right; Natasha Fyles, Health Minister, member for Nightcliff and member of the Left; and, unlikely as it may seem, back-bencher Joel Bowden, Johnston MP and former AFL player for Richmond.
“… the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances“
A heroic assumption, surely?
It might be instructive to compare the YouGov’s projections for individual seats, as they become available, with the results of the various recent seat-level polls. The latter have their own issues, of course, but a comparison across several seats might offer an impression of the degree of consistency between the approaches.
(Taking Kooyong as a sample of one, YouGov and Redbridge reach a similar 2PP result, but that may be more coincidental than confirmatory.)
Kooyong, for example …
YouGov: “The results nonetheless point to Liberal defeats at the hands of teal independents in Kooyong (by 53-47) …”
Redbridge: “Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan … showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences.”
Confirmation or coincidence? “More data needed …”
I think I’ll stick with “it’s the vibe”.
I’m fully on top of that.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/alan-tudge-says-he-s-hopeful-of-returning-to-the-front-bench-in-rare-appearance-20220510-p5ak43.html
Oh now, with a week and a half until election day he remembers he’s actually the Education Minister! If Labor hadn’t made such a fuss about him being AWOL I wonder if we’d have seen him at all.
“Wentworth (56-44)”… That margin, and even an actual win for Sharma in Wentworth, may become one of the discredited predictions that will tone down the enthusiasm for the MRP poll model. We will see…
In any event, this is quite an effort by YouGov!… In this case there is no need to bash old Murdoch, as this is a polling model that will be tested with real election results.
Interesting that in the UK the model underestimated the level of success of the winner.
“Its the vibe” says a Labor win, enough to provide a speaker and HOR majority with a jalopy full of “bushrangers” in the Senate.
“Peter van Onselen reported on Ten News yesterday that “an unauthorised leak of Liberal polling” showed the Liberals trailing Labor by 55-45 in Bennelong, and also behind in Reid and Robertson, together with Gilmore and Parramatta, which the party has had high hopes of gaining from Labor.”…
To be frank, thanks to Scomo and other prominent members of his gang and their collective performance since 2019, it’s very unlikely that any ALP marginal seat will be lost by that party, whereas quite a few marginal and not-so marginal Liberal seats are going to fall in Labor’s hands (in addition to those who will be lost to Teals).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-10/election-2022-morrison-deves-trans-albanese-minimum-wage/101052710
You don’t have to be pig ignorant and highly opinionated to be ‘strong’. Personally, if we’re going to have more women in parliament I’d prefer they were at least capable of forming rational opinions based on objective evidence.
“Raf Epstein of the ABC in Victoria posted results of Redbridge Group polling conducted for independent candidate Monique Ryan that showed her on 32.3% of the primary vote in Kooyong, behind Josh Frydenberg on 40.5% but narrowly ahead after preferences. The Greens are said to be on 8.4%, Labor 6.7% and the United Australia Party 5.2%.”…
A narrow win for Ryan is very possible…. To be frank, I don’t believe that UAP is at 5.2%. Frydenberg is desperately rallying the right-wingers to defeat the other mob, so I would expect a very low vote for UAP and a maximisation of the vote for the Libs. Along the lines to what happened to the Brexit Party in the UK at their general election in 2019.
Deves won’t be in parliament nor heard of again.
Deves is an undemocratic choice of candidate by a dud PM
Goll:
No she certainly won’t be the Member for Warringah. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see her pop up at some other point in the future.
As Possum says, this has to be the weirdest ad ever…
It’s from the Liberal Party, and it is attempting to contextualise the ‘It’s not my job’ put down… does it work?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjQc1ft9vII
Sprocket
The add works for Labor!
Enough voters are over Mr Fake and his non-definable job description.
sprocket:
They must be worried if they’re putting out ads to refute Labor’s ads!
Again the corollaries with 2007 when the Liberals put out ads with Howard with a laptop to refute the ads showing Rudd with a laptop.
Is Morrison’s head growing?
Just had a look back to see .. the 2017 YouGov MRP was much closer in seats, it had the Tories short by 24 of a majority, whereas the actual result was short by 8
Significantly wrong on the SNP in Scotland though (as in 2019, although the other way round)
Not quite as good on vote share, underestimating Labour by 3 points
They also had the Greens on 7% .. they polled 2%
__________________________________________________________
From this sample size of 2 it looks like MRP struggles with the smaller parties and certain regional effects
They were using samples sizes of c.50,000 for that one so around 83 average per constituency
The most interesting aspect of the white flag waving Murdoch tabloids is the return of the yellow footer, with Palmer’s pledge to cripple your superannuation returns…
Reposted from old thread
The YouGov MRP poll for our 2019 General Election did pick some of the Red Wall collapse – but there were some some pretty significant misses in both directions
As mentioned earlier the vote shares were within a percent but the seats were 30 out for Con/Lab .. they undercooked the SNP in Scotland too
_________________________________________________________
If anyone wants to compare, the 2019 YouGov MRP had a sample of 105,500 for an average of 167 per constituency
Electorate 47.6 million
_________________________________________________________
Re MRP polling
The Electoral Calculus website ran an MRP poll for the recent Locals – two in fact – and it served up a huge miss in seats won/lost
Not with YouGov, but another polling outfit, although I guess the principles are well understood by the experts
“sprocket_says:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 6:08 am
As Possum says, this has to be the weirdest ad ever…
It’s from the Liberal Party, and it is attempting to contextualise the ‘It’s not my job’ put down… does it work?”..
As a counter-attack that’s as weak as p..s….
The Liars party accusing others of lying?…. Ludicrous!
Oh, and btw, there is a frankly disgusting pro-Liberal party campaign of LIES going on right now on WeChat targeting the Chinese community… It’s our job to expose it!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/11/wechat-posts-warn-labor-plans-to-turn-children-gay-and-destroy-chinese-wealth
Any news on Hunter or Shortland?
“Gollsays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 6:22 am
Is Morrison’s head growing?”
No, his body is shrinking…. He must be starving…. of votes!
The lone clapping and cheering sound you’re hearing from the Blue side as the Kooyong results are coming out are from the new Opposition Leader, the Member for Dickson, Voldemort.
If voldemort keeps his seat…
“Cronussays:
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 at 6:48 am
The lone clapping and cheering sound you’re hearing from the Blue side as the Kooyong results are coming out are from the new Opposition Leader, the Member for Dickson, Voldemort.”…
Unfortunately for Voldemort, he may not be “alive” after the election… But hey, he may be able to keep chatting with Friedhamburger, as they both enjoy their forced retirement from Parliament…. 🙂
Alpo and Woke-pc-thug
Fingers crossed, we can at least hope. He’s pure evil.
So, we’re not supposed to believe any other poll but this YouGov MRP poll now?
The YouGov is just one other data point. As yet untested in Australian federal elections.
Morning all. Like others I am puzzled by the YouGov poll.
I have had some familiarity with demographic based models, since they are how we predict travel demand in transport planning. The problem is they model underlying changes in the nature of the community, but not changes in the relative preferences of those in it. So if a new transport mode is more or less popular/political party becomes more or less appealing, they miss it.
Looks like the Liberal attack line today is that the bad man, Albanese, wants people to get a pay rise !!!
It reminds me of Mathew Guys first promise when he became Liberal opposition leader in Victoria the first time, he promised to abolish the Grand Final day public holiday, which isstill fresh in peoples minds when the election drawns near.
Sometimes they forget its a popularity contest.
Thanks for the very informative insights, Soc.
So it doesn’t know how to predict a change in mood of the demographics under its spotlight?
I personally think Albanese should’ve taken the usual political line on wages but I don’t think it’ll make any difference to the election outcome.
sprocket:
It’s weird and too long. People have already switched off to SfMs lies.
On the first ‘correction’ (on his COVID-19 response):
“Morrison refuses to acknowledge it but there’s no escaping the level of public anger about his government’s failure to secure enough Pfizer supply to reduce the risks evident now and in coming months.”
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/morrison-can-t-risk-another-brawl-with-andrews-20210715-p58a4g
On the second ‘correction’, whilst I can’t find something more concrete, SfM saying it ‘isn’t his job to tell people how to spend their money’ is quite tone deaf considering people don’t have a choice because of shrinking wages and rising inflation. Something his government could do something about.
On the third correction, ‘again about his COVID-19 response:
“BROWN: In a two week period in Italy, they went from 1,000 infections to 16,000, in a fortnight, 1,000 to 16,000. Could that happen here?
PRIME MINISTER: Well, the situation in Italy and Australia is very different for a couple of reasons. Our health system is different. The age of our population is very different. And the way life is lived is also very different. On top of that, our rate of testing is one of the highest in the world. We’ve got 127,000 tests that have been done for a rate of infection, as you saw, just over 1,200. The percentage of negative cases, 99 per cent. That’s one that’s one of the highest if not the highest in the world but this is going to be really tough. I mean, these things are going to break our hearts, but it’s not going to break our spirit.
BROWN: Are you frightened?
PRIME MINISTER: It’s not my job to do that, it’s my job to be,
BROWN: Are you alarmed?
PRIME MINISTER: Not at all. Look in situations like this. You’ve just got to act on the information, make decisions and communicate clearly. I can’t control what I can’t control, but I can control what our Government does and I can control what support and information and health services that we can deliver at a time of real great crisis.
BROWN: And I know you say your job is to communicate clearly. You tell people not to hoard. They continue to do so. You tell people not to socialise, look at Bondi. I mean they’re not listening are they?
PRIME MINISTER: Well, no, I actually think the experience is different to that. I mean, I know that from even just this week, the figures that were provided to me by the supermarkets showed that there was greater order today than there was a number of days ago but that will change depending on how people respond to the measures that come. What we saw at Bondi Beach was just not okay. It was not even remotely okay. And that sent a message to the Premiers. It sent a message to the Chief Ministers and I, that not enough Australians are taking this seriously. I said today we are in a war against this virus and all Australians are enlisted to do the right thing. We can give instruction. We can enforce them. People are told to self-isolate for 14 days when they come back. People are told to keep to one and a half meters distance, venues are told to only have an average of four square metres for the number of people. This needs to be observed. If it’s not observed, then very draconian measures will have to be introduced that might otherwise have been unnecessary.”
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/interview-tara-brown-60-minutes
The last two paragraphs specifically in the quote. It is his job to communicate clearly…
This ad is just a waste of time at best.
“Since the model works by inferring how people will vote based on demography rather than in response to their specific local circumstances, I suspect it would be more robust in traditional party-based contests.”
I agree on that, how can they expect to accurately predict independents, who campaign on specific local circumstances, whey look past specific local circumstances.
They would need to define what each individual independent is campaigning on to be able to make demographic assumptions, or maybe i dont understand it properly ?
Isn’t there a saying, ‘when you’re having to explain yourself, you’ve lost the argument’?
Cat
The trouble with demographic based models is that you project from underlying base models or assumptions for each age/sex/income/whatever cohort in your model. When building the model you are making assumptions about what those cohorts are. So if you build the model cohorts on education parameters, it is accurate for those. Or if you build the model on income parameters, it is accurate for those.
But what if preferencing on the election turns on other factors, like ethnicity, or religious affiliation etc. that you did not measure in your model? The model will only be built around what you have measured and constructed.
I’m not saying YouGov is wrong, but I remain skeptical that it can handle new factors that change traditional voting blocks. The Teals would be a classic case. So would popular local members that have strong local networks.
I don’t mind the bit of intellectual honestly in that ad to be honest. If only it was coming from a party that hadn’t spent the last x decades lying and being generally cruel, corrupt and incompetent, I might be tempted to reconsider my vote…
There is another story today that planning for the new nuclear sub build is now headed for delay (again). It matches comments by the task force manager (Adm Mead) yesterday that suggested delivery of a first boat towards “the end of next decade).
Not so much failing to plan as planning to fail.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-11/warning-of-defence-shipbuilding-skills-shortage/101053734
Speaking of keeping politicians honest, Dominic Perrottet has increased the budget of ICAC in the upcoming NSW Budget:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/perrottet-makes-sweeping-changes-to-boost-icac-funding-20220510-p5ak5a.html
I dont think anti-not-my-job ad is good for Libs.
The ad is them repeating the not-my-job attack line and then refuting it in a small window by showing the specific context of how those three instances of it was used. But people know its not about those three specific instances, its broader than that, its almost a metaphor.
They are trying to fend off a broad attack with a narrow counterattack.
And who designed the graphics, if they where any good they would have counter-argument in the main screen, and the attack-ad part in the small window.
By the way, “Who are UAP & PHON preferencing in Hughes?”
It would be wonderfully ironic, after spending $1oo million to elect their self-proclaimed next PM of Aust, that UAP’s bogus preference flows – aided by PHON – elected a Lieberal candidate in Hughes.
Socrates @ #35 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:30 am
It would be interesting to know exactly which demographic characteristics go into their logistic regression. It would appear they are constrained by census data, so education, income, religious affiliation, and age would be the most likely factors. With a sample size of 19,000, the aggregate results would carry some weight, but less so in individual seats, particularly where there are strong local drivers (e.g. a well-funded charismatic independent).
Also, I’d guess it takes a while to sample 19,000 people – over what time period was it taken? The MOE of 0.7% is tight but if the sample is weeks old it’s less instructive.
On RN, minister Roberts claims the teal independents are fake independents because they won’t tell us who they will support.
What? If they all came out and said they would support the ALP then Roberts would be satisfied they are independents.
What an idiot.
Looking at 2017, one of the reasons the YouGov MRP performed well may just be that they – unlike all the other pollsters – had a much better handle on the national vote shares (much larger sample?)
Their final model had a 4% Tory lead – the actual result was a 2.5% lead
The average among the 9 traditional pollsters reporting on election eve was a 7% Tory lead, had they been reporting Tory leads of 2-4% the pundits would have been floating the possibility of a hung parliament I’m sure
Under FPTP that 3% makes a lot of difference in seats
In 2019 by contrast the MRP underestimated the Tory lead .. at 9% v. actual of 11.7%, which was exactly where the traditional polls also had it on election eve on average
There was another MRP done by Focal Data which had an almost identical forecast to the YouGov one
The ad is a laugh. I actually thought it was a labor ad at first.
Surely the libs realise it only reinforces ita not my job line. If they dont pull this ad by today, i will laugh and laugh.
I see Morgan says that using the voter indicated preferences Labor would have increased from 55.5 to 56. I can only assume that using the 2019 preferences it would have been roughly 54 previously and moved to 54.5 this time.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Chris Uhlmann steps up to defend the indefensible – the “debate” on Channel 9. Read it. I couldn’t!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/great-debate-lived-up-to-its-name-20220509-p5ajvc.html
Anthony Albanese has silenced claims he is avoiding Daniel Andrews on the hustings. The downside? Andrews showed him what political cut-through looks like, says Clay Lucas.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/andrews-outshines-albo-in-ultra-marginal-chisholm-20220510-p5ak3q.html
Paul Kelly begins this contribution with, “Governments cannot fix these issues. Leaders cannot deliver on pledges beyond their control. Australia is not a centralised economy. Prime ministers don’t determine the inflation rate; they don’t set real wages. There is a King Canute element to this campaign – as the king couldn’t stop the tide, neither can Morrison and Albanese stop price impacts no matter how many polls tell them this is the public’s central concern.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/policy-expires-on-road-to-election/news-story/5c7062aa30beba1e05f924bcccbabdb7
Michael Pascoe reckons the Liberal ‘moderates’ have already quit.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/05/11/michael-pascoe-liberal-moderates/
The AFR tells us that employers and economists are warning that Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s advocacy for pay rises greater than 5 per cent to keep pace with soaring cost of living will crush businesses, fuel inflation and put upward pressure on interest rates.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/employers-warn-labor-s-5pc-pay-rise-will-crush-business-20220510-p5ak66
Bob McMullan has been looking at all the available polling information, and, still scarred by what happened in 2019, he dares to predict a Labor win. He gives Poll Bludger a good wrap, too.
https://johnmenadue.com/probability-websites-are-picking-labor-to-win/
And the AFR’s editorial says that the Labor leader should send the wage issues to the jobs summit he plans to hold if he wins the May 21 election, in line with his vow to govern like Bob Hawke and reform like Paul Keating.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/anthony-albanese-s-jobs-summit-must-strike-a-new-wages-bargain-20220509-p5ajne
Peter Martin sys we should stand by for the oddly designed Stage 3 tax cut that will send middle earners backwards and give high earners thousands.
https://theconversation.com/stand-by-for-the-oddly-designed-stage-3-tax-cut-that-will-send-middle-earners-backwards-and-give-high-earners-thousands-182751
If Labor wins, it will confront the same dilemma as the Whitlam government, while a returned Coalition will need to repeat the 2014 austerity budget, writes Percy Allan.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/election-winner-faces-stagflation-mission-impossible-20220509-p5ajnf
We are all, on average, about 3% poorer every year under the Morrison Government. Dave Donovan debunks the “Coalition are better economic managers” theory.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/at-least-as-easy-with-albanese–and-nowhere-near-as-sleazy,16342
Both Anthony Albanese and Scott Morrison landed themselves onto the sticky paper on Tuesday, as they trudged through this campaign’s penultimate week. The issues couldn’t have been more different. But each was an area of their respective vulnerabilities – economic numbers in Albanese’s case and social views in Morrison’s, writes Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-and-morrison-caught-on-fly-papers-of-wages-gender-182781
Anne Davies reports that a subterranean campaign on the Chinese language social media platform WeChat has ramped up in the final weeks of the 2022 federal election campaign, with material being shared in private groups that alleges Labor and the Greens will fund school programs to turn students gay, impose new taxes and destroy Chinese wealth. Where is the AEC?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/11/wechat-posts-warn-labor-plans-to-turn-children-gay-and-destroy-chinese-wealth
Shane Wright reports that truck drivers are warning households face paying $20 extra a week for grocery essentials because the federal Coalition has bungled a centrepiece of its budget cost-of-living measure to cut the cost of petrol.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bungled-fuel-tax-change-could-hit-households-20-a-week-truckers-warn-20220510-p5ajzm.html
According to Paul Sakkal, Labor will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in a final fortnight advertising blitz portraying Prime Minister Scott Morrison as anti-Victorian – a move the party hopes will lead to the government losing four seats in the state.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-ad-blitz-condemns-pm-as-anti-victorian-20220510-p5ak2f.html
Scott Morrison has again defended his controversial captain’s pick candidate for Warringah Katherine Deves after she doubled down on her description of gender reassignment surgery as “mutilation”, in contrast to her previous apologies. Michael Koziol leads us through Morrison’s verbal gymnastics on the issue.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-defends-deves-again-after-she-doubles-down-on-mutilation-comments-20220510-p5ajyi.html
If the last campaign targeted the quiet Australians, this time Morrison is appealing to the anxious ones, says Katherine Murphy after Morrison returning to the transgender issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/10/if-the-last-campaign-targeted-the-quiet-australians-this-time-morrison-is-appealing-to-the-anxious-ones
Tom Rabe and Matt O’Sullivan reveal that a congestion tax for Sydney’s CBD and distance-based road user charges will be considered by the NSW government under long-term plans to overhaul the state’s transport network amid escalating budgetary pressures.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/congestion-tax-in-the-mix-for-sydney-cbd-secret-document-reveals-20220510-p5ak19.html
Dana Daniel tells us that higher inflation is driving up the cost of delivering hospital care, threatening to blow out the budgets of state-run hospitals and increase insurance premiums.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inflation-driving-up-hospital-costs-and-private-health-premiums-20220509-p5ajm9.html
Labor leader Anthony Albanese has sparked a political storm by backing an increase in the minimum wage of at least 5.1 per cent despite businesses claiming the higher costs would destroy jobs, widening an election row over economic planning.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-sparks-political-storm-by-backing-wage-rise-to-match-inflation-20220510-p5ak48.html
Low wages in a raft of female-dominated industries is one structural factor discouraging women from taking up more jobs, explains Matt Wade.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-offerings-to-boost-women-s-workforce-participation-fall-short-20220510-p5ak4l.html
Operating hours will be lengthened at eight schools across the state in a NSW government trial to modernise the school day to better suit parents and students. The participating schools would partner with community organisations, local businesses and sporting clubs to offer activities for children at school outside 9am and 3pm, but it would not involve a change in teaching hours, reports Daniella White.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/eight-nsw-schools-to-trial-extended-operating-hours-20220510-p5ak47.html
Lisa Visentin writes that the country’s top lawyers have condemned Scott Morrison’s attack on the NSW corruption watchdog as “neither correct nor constructive” after the prime minister doubled down on his criticism of the body and took a swipe at the legal community.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-corruption-watchdog-claims-not-correct-nor-constructive-barristers-20220510-p5ak2v.html
Meanwhile, Dominic Perrottet has agreed to ongoing increased funding for the state’s anti-corruption commission, putting him further at odds with the Prime Minister’s staunch opposition to the state agency.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/perrottet-makes-sweeping-changes-to-boost-icac-funding-20220510-p5ak5a.html
Doug Dingwall writes that Scott Morrison’s anti-ICAC argument ignores vast sums of federal spending – and the risk of corruption.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7732583/morrisons-anti-icac-argument-glosses-over-federal-spending/?cs=14329
Sumeyya Ilanbey tells us that a former NSW and Commonwealth ombudsman has been handed the task of investigating whether successive Victorian governments have undermined and politicised the state’s public service.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/former-nsw-ombudsman-to-probe-politicisation-of-victorian-bureaucrats-20220510-p5ak31.html
The AFR tells us how soaring gas prices are pushing manufacturers to the brink.
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/manufacturing-threat-as-gas-prices-spike-20220510-p5ajxs
ABC veterans Kerry O’Brien and Philip Williams have thrown their weight behind a campaign to encourage people to vote for political candidates who support a well-funded ABC, reports Amanda Meade.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/11/abc-veterans-call-on-voters-to-back-election-candidates-who-support-the-public-broadcaster
The covering up of corruption and scandals by the mainstream media is highlighting the importance of independent journalism more than ever, writes Paul Begley.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/self-censorship-of-mainstream-media-underlines-need-for-truth,16343
Revisiting a post from 2017, John Menadue says that the Murdoch media has gone rogue again in the 2022 election.
https://johnmenadue.com/take-on-news-corp-at-your-peril-how-a-rogue-organisation-operates-repost-from-27-oct-2017/
John Lord begins his latest election contribution with, “And so, the second leader’s debate on 9News has come and gone. At times it was unedifying and robustly undignified. It lacked moderation and structure and demonstrated how much of a bully our Prime Minister is. And I might add how amateurish commercial TV can be. Sure, both combatants gave as much as they got, but the continual interruptions of Albanese’s answers by the panel and the Prime Minister became tedious. It mostly led to the responses of both being indecipherable at times.”
https://theaimn.com/lets-hope-the-polls-are-right-this-time/
Abul Rizvi tells us what he would do if he were to be the Minister for Immigration policy in the next parliament
https://johnmenadue.com/immigration-policy-for-the-next-parliament/
And it’s defamation time again! Georgina Mitchell reports that a barrister representing the ABC and the SMH has told a trial actor Craig McLachlan sexually harassed and indecently assaulted 11 women over the course of his career, during stage productions and television shows including The Rocky Horror Show and Neighbours.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/craig-mclachlan-sexually-harassed-11-women-defamation-trial-told-20220510-p5ak03.html
At the other defamation trial, an SAS soldier has backed Ben Roberts-Smith’s version of an Afghan man’s death during an SAS mission in Darwan in 2012, telling the federal court that a man shot dead during the operation was an insurgent spotter who was a threat to Australian troops and legitimately killed.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/10/sas-soldier-tells-ben-roberts-smith-defamation-trial-afghan-killed-in-darwan-was-an-insurgent-spotter
Australia relies on overseas-trained medical experts yet consigns them to professional purgatory, complains oncologist, Ranjana Srivastava.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/10/australia-relies-on-overseas-trained-medical-experts-yet-consigns-them-to-professional-purgatory
Tim Woodruff looks at the dream and the reality of our health system.
https://johnmenadue.com/our-health-system-the-dream-and-the-reality/
The tech billionaire may manage to torpedo AGL’s demerger, but he doesn’t have the firepower to derail its board nor its strategy, opines Elizabeth Knight.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/cannon-brookes-missing-agl-ingredient-what-happens-if-he-wins-20220510-p5ak2e.html
At the inquiry, Star Entertainment director Ben Heap has conceded before an inquiry that he should have asked more questions when former CEO Matt Bekier played down “problems” in an exclusive gambling salon reserved for high roller junket operator Suncity. The witnesses have not been covering themselves in glory.
https://www.afr.com/companies/games-and-wagering/star-director-admits-he-should-have-asked-more-questions-inquiry-20220510-p5ak2k
NSW Labor senator Deb O’Neill has proven herself to be a trailblazing force for the nation’s car dealerships, especially those currently at war with German manufacturer Mercedes-Benz over a shift in its sales model that could threaten their livelihood.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/margin-call/senator-deb-oneil-in-drivers-seat-for-mercedesbenz-dealers/news-story/2de97727e8753ab51aebf1a6e72c46cc
John Collett explains why falling property prices are actually bad news for first home buyers.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/why-falling-property-prices-are-actually-bad-news-for-first-home-buyers-20220505-p5ait0.html
Victorian Liberal MP Bernie Finn continues to show his colours by repeating his view that survivors of rape should not be allowed to have abortions, saying “everybody should be given a chance” to live.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-mp-doubles-down-on-comments-that-raped-women-should-be-denied-abortions-20220510-p5ak0i.html
The destruction of Ukraine’s farm belt is worse than feared, with half of this year’s crop lost to the world. With another La Niña looming, the next six weeks will be critical for the world’s food supply, explains Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who does not paint a pretty picture.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/leaders-are-getting-scared-putin-s-war-and-la-ni-a-could-set-off-global-food-emergency-20220509-p5ajm0.html
Anthony Galloway tells us that the head of the nation’s overseas spy agency has suggested an increasing number of disaffected Chinese officials are feeding information to Australian intelligence officers and raised the alarm about the pressures on Solomon Islands.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/asis-chief-hints-chinese-officials-are-passing-information-to-australia-20220510-p5ajwo.html
Stephen Bartholomeusz tells us that China has driven another fresh wave of selling in global financial markets with the release of worrying data driven by its zero-COVID strategy.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/markets-are-reeling-china-just-made-things-worse-20220510-p5ajxk.html
There is a new Marcos in Manila, and he wants a maritime deal with China, writes Chris Barrett.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/there-is-a-new-marcos-in-manila-and-he-wants-a-maritime-deal-with-china-20220510-p5ajzu.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Mrk David
John Shakespeare
Simon Letch
Harry Bruce
Peter Broelman
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
The Liberal ad response to the ALP ad of Morrison saying
“It’s not my job” will work. No doubt.
For most ordinary Australians seeing the context of Morrison’s exact words will cast a lingering doubt on Albos truthfulness. Most will say “ clever, but wrong”.
Attack ads are the norm in politics. So are forceful rebuttals which very often win.
bug1 @ #39 Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 – 7:41 am
It seems like the reverse of 2019 where the Liberals had well-established attack lines (“the bill you can’t afford”) that they could hammer home in the last two weeks. The ALP ad works because it resonates with people’s opinion of Morrison, that’s the broader context the Libs need to address if they want to counter the attack – tbh I don’t know how you’d do that.
Here from the Australian is YouGov-Newspoll explaining their “new” information based on MRP polling
MRP stands for multi-level regression with post-stratification. It’s a statistical technique used to predict results for individual electorates, by combining a large survey – at least ten times as big as a typical national survey – with electorate-level information (such as population density and the proportion of the population with a university degree) from the Census and other government agencies, and previous election results.
For our model estimating the outcome of the 2022 election, YouGov collected 18,923 surveys with Australian voters from 14 April to 7 May. This includes some data from recent Newspoll surveys as well as additional surveys collected separately. This provides us with a very large sample to produce granular estimates of vote intention in all 151 of the electorates that will decide the election.
In these surveys, respondents were asked their voting intention in the same way Newspoll does. Participants see the options that they will have to choose from in their own electorate, including all parties and independents. They are also asked a large number of questions about their demographic and other characteristics, as well as how they have voted previously.
The data from the survey – age, gender, education, language spoken at home, religion, dwelling tenure, household income, employment and 2019 vote – along with other information are used both as predictors in our model, and to weight our predictions.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/mrp-a-new-way-of-polling/news-story/393a33b7c671f254db1b21515528c215
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Make of that what you can/will.
I am yet to see what William Bowe, Kevin Bonham and other polling experts here in Australia have to say about the model. Until we get some guidance from their feedback I am going to leave it in the ‘questionable’ basket. The first edition of results posted in The Australian don’t offer the Coalition many good news stories (if any) but it reads more like a click bait exercise to me at the moment.
only seat the liberals look like holding on to is lindsay cooyong has allways been a safe liberal seat not shore what geting constence was ment to achieve most off seat is in edan monarow in bega