I hesitate to read federal implications into yesterday’s Tasmanian Legislative Council elections, but it may at very least be a sign of the times that Labor and Liberal candidates couldn’t muster half of the vote between them in the by-election for Huon, which encompasses about a third of the federal seat of Franklin. For those of you who are interested (not many, it seems), I will continue to follow the count in the dedicated post in the days to come, in which either Labor or the independent will win the seat depending on how preferences flows. Two other seats, Elwick and McIntyre, were comfortably retained by their respective Labor and independent incumbents.
More directly of relevance:
• The Guardian reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 shows independent Sophie Scamps with a 60-40 lead over Liberal member Jason Falinksi in Mackellar. The primary votes are Falinski 32.0%, Scamps 31.2%, Labor 15.5% and Greens 8.6% with 7% undecided, and a respondent-allocated preference flow of 81-19 in favour of Scamps. The automated phone poll was conducted last week from a sample of 834.
• Countering much of the recent horse race narrative, The Australian reports strategists on both sides say support for the Coalition has fallen away in Queensland. While Brisbane is “the most vulnerable”, Leichhardt, Longman and perhaps also Flynn are “in play”. Ryan is “in danger” from the Greens, and while the same might also be held of Labor-held Griffith, “a Labor strategist said he believed Griffith would hold”. However, a Liberal National Party source’s claim that Labor “has been claiming for the last three elections that they were going to pick up another eight to ten seats and it doesn’t eventuate” is only slightly exaggerated.
• John Ferguson of The Australian adds to a recent chorus of reportage to the effect that Victoria’s lockdowns “will hit hard in pockets across Melbourne’s outer suburbs”, endangering Labor’s hold on McEwen and Corangamite. This time may well be different, but I can’t help noting that the news media doesn’t have a good record of reading Melbourne’s pulse in recent years. After similar suggestions of a threat to Labor in McEwen in 2016 due to a controversy over the Andrews government’s handling of the Country Fire Authority, the seat swung to Labor by 7.7%. Efforts by the Liberal Party and the Herald Sun to promote African gang crime as the defining issue of the 2018 state election fell on the deafest of ears, and after much talk that the “Skyrail” issue would weaken the Andrews goverment’s hold on the crucial sandbelt seats of Melbourne’s south-east, every single one of them recorded a double-digit swing to Labor.
• A report in today’s Age/Herald papers says Liberal MPs are being told not to encourage people to vote early, as they expect, or at least hope, for a late break in their favour. The report also says Labor now is “more hopeful” that Bennelong and Leichhardt are trending its way, but that both sides now expect Dunkley, Lilley, Hunter and Paterson to remain with Labor, and Hasluck, Flynn and Longman to remain with the Coalition.
Pi
Sure, but the question is why Frydenberg would do this. He’s first in line for federal party leadership and could potentially remain so if he finds a safer seat given the lack of talent. Why would he trade this position for state premier or more likely state loto? It doesn’t fit the profile of such a political creature.
If only the ABC for example could interview Fran Bailey about Morrison’s tenure as boss of Tourism Australia.
Those who were worrying about Annika Wells in Lilley can relax,the LNP now can’t replace Vivian Moon as candidate.
As for whatever dirt the Liberals think they have on Albo,probably something about supposed links to China is my guess.
The heartless Morrison wants to push through the religious discrimination act without providing any protection for the LGBQI people. He wants bigots to have their fun unhindered.
Disgusting stuff.
My view is that the LNP have followed the GOP so far down the rabbit hole it will be difficult to find a way out.
Now with R v W dominating the midterms it is going to get harder to escape the extreme right influence.
Demolish and rebuild is what the “independents” are all about.
I’ve been trying to decide whether the Roe vs Wade talk will favour Dems or GOP in the midterms. Can’t decide.
BK: Slomo just officially lost Wentworth, North Sydney and Goldstein for starters, the LGBQI vote won’t be going to the Liberals
hazza4257says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:23 pm
Without compulsory voting, the GOP.
Will super motivate the base.
Hey folks. Just been at the car food place to give my little tootler a top-up for the working week ahead, and noticed that the cost of car food is almost back up over $2 a litre.
Guess Morrison mistimed how long his fuel excise cut would last. While I was filling up, a Mum drove in and when she saw the price, muttered the Lord’s name in vain under her breath.
So once again, fuel will be a weekly reminder to people about Morrison’s failure on cost of living.
C@T
“ Yep. Good interview by Speers of Spender today. He led her away from her carefully scripted lines into the weeds and got her to put some issues front and centre that Simon Holmes A’Court would probably have preferred were best left unsaid.”
I missed the interview but when I saw the comments, my first impression was that she slipped up and said/revealed things that her supporters would rather she hadn’t. Getting a bit tired and caught off guard perhaps.
hazza4257
It’s probably one of the few things that give the Dems a fighting chance. Favours them but doesn’t get them above water.
Plenty of LGBTI people vote their (conception of what’s best for their) wallet not for sympathy for anyone else being downtrodden.
Quite a lot of cis gay men have done shit all for any other discriminated class. They got theirs.
Morrison might be intending to make the final days about identity politics – hoping that voters will stop thinking about economic management, and instead vote with their feelings on cultural issues (or they will reject Labor on the basis of believing the myth that they are too preoccupied with being PC and woke, and that will be the focus of their entire agenda, instead of real issues.)
On dirt.
One of the ALP men mentioned in previous posts is on the record as saying he and another at the time young MP had challenges as to who could form a relationship with female staffers
Does that fit into Albos early days as an MP.
Remember sex sells…and especially given the problems with staffers this could be blown up as double standards .
By the same token, I dont think ALP is clueless enough not to have war gamed this scenario.
What I’d give to be a fly on the wall in the ministerial offices the Sunday morning after the election. Staffers and advisers hurriedly running around giving the poor paper shedders the work out of their lives, trying in vain to shred 9 years of cover ups and legal loophole slight of hand. NDAs here, confidential settlements there lol
One of the bigger fears of Dems was moderate suburbia, which flocked to them under Trump would start to go back to the GOP. The elections in VA and NJ showed this was a well-justified concern. Overturning RvW would absolutely agitate those voters and give the Dems as chance to win those voters back.
There is a danger to the GOP, make no mistake, but we’ll see.
@Wat – if it was the case… he might as well get his resignation letter ready, lol.
Commentariat Uprising @ #686 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:06 pm
Can’t see someone as ambitious as Frydenberg shifting to state politics, particularly when he’s exposed to his behavior during the Pandemic and the shortchanging of Victoria on infrastructure. Frydenberg may be relatively popular outside of Victoria – he did send a lot of people cheques, but he’s toxic in his home state. Exhibit A he’s on the cusp of losing a very safe Liberal seat where Katie Allen next door, on a narrower margin looks safe.
I expect he’ll scrape back in but the resources being used will cost the Liberals elsewhere (e.g. Goldstein) and it’s prevented him from campaigning in the rest of Australia, where he does seem to present a more acceptable face than Morrison.
If he loses I’m guessing he’ll start a three-year campaign to regain the seat.
13 sleeps to go
Bluey did a tour of Indi and spoke to ardent Haines supporters when he could find them through the thicket of Haines’ corflutes. Haines was ‘nice’, ‘pleasant’, he was told. Repeatedly. When Bluey asked Haines’ supporters to name one Haines’ achievement for the electorate of Indi, they could not do so. After some detailed discussion it turned out that people vote for Haines because she makes THEM feel significant and makes THEM feel as if their electorate has gained power. The ones Bluey spoke seemed to regard government-delivered outcomes as a sort of random event from the group known collectively ‘they are all the same.’ The only other item of note was the very large number of wombats lying on their backs while adopting prayerful attitudes on Indi’s roads.
Other than that stuff, which was provoked by Bluey’s open-ended questions, Bluey detected ZERO interest in the election or in politics.
Trevor Evans, member for Brisbane has upset the Pyjama Foundation by way of co-opting the Founder for his election material. Bluey wonders he got some tips from Frydenberg.
There is some naughty business with unauthorized corflutes branding Teals as Greens. Bluey reckons that while this might play well with the far right rusted ons it is not going to finagle any votes back to the left hand side of the embattled so-called moderates. Bluey reckons dumb as.
El Lobo, LNP candidate for Lilley might possibly be up ship creek with respect to a fraudulent declaration. Bluey wonders whether he was demonstrating his bona fides for some ministerial action in a future Liberal government.
Bluey has noticed a certain Greens lady candidate is piling up some very large unladylike, egregious lies. Bluey wonders whether she will apologize.
Morrison dips his wick in the religious discrimination mire and Katie Allen promptly announces she will cross the floor again. Bluey reckons shambles.
Bluey has seen nothing over the weekend that would shift votes. Score for the last couple of sleeps: 0
Cumulative score: Morrison 2; Albanese 4.5; Joyce .5.
Bluey reckons the next round of polls will play around inside the MOE and that the general setting is treacle tin.
Bluey continues to predict that Labor will form government with a small majority.
OMFG, is newspoll going to drop during the debate tonight? And will there be a question about it….
Should be fun tonight.
Themunz @ #707 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:26 pm
I disagree (despite just saying I couldn’t decide). It will motivate both bases who both feel strongly about the issue, but it also addresses a key concern for democrats – keeping white suburban women onside.
Kim Beazley of all people, in discussion with Christopher Pyne, claimed that many white women voted for Biden in 2020 because they just couldn’t vote for Trump. However, at the same election they voted R in the House and Senate, which is why the Dems struggled to get the numbers they needed.
Maybe abortion is an issue that will keep Dems competitive, although they’ll probably still struggle as Commentariat Uprising alluded to.
jt1983 @ #715 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:31 pm
Jinx!
Commentariat Uprising says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:00 pm
The idea of a dirt dump on Labor being effective relies on Labor not having an effective response.
“Yeah I don’t think it’s wise for the LNP or media to declare open season on sex pests.”
Agreed, the first words out of Albo’s mouth would be Porter, Tudge, Brittany Higgins, Grace Tame ….. shall I go on? The Coalition and Morrison are a giant, sitting target on the issue of sex.
“Plenty of LGBTI people vote their (conception of what’s best for their) wallet not for sympathy for anyone else being downtrodden.”
By the same token, LGBT people who aren’t as impacted by poverty-related discrimination may focus their energy on “respect” and “tolerance”, i.e on the exact sort of PC and woke things that are supposedly the sole domain of the left.
Freydenberg has been the federal treasurer who has been part of a federal government that has systematically repeatedly and deeply discriminated against Victoria and Victorians.
Kami kaze stuff to try to stuff him into state politics.
Forget that.
Next, please…
…besides…
… he is young enough to think himself a chance to become the one thing he really wants: prime minister. Everything else GAGF, right? Keep Josh and jettison the rest?
Well I’ll be at ease with Albanese!
I’m fearful of another term of Morrison & his vampire coven.
@hazzah – I don’t believe in such things.
In regards to the alleged dirt file from the libs, it will be both fitting and ironic that it will be the truth that hits them for six. I am expecting stories from Grace Tame, Brittany Higgins, an untold number of leaks from NSW Libs and many others. I think the torpedoes are primed and ready to launch. Whatever furniture is left will be the flotsam left floating on the surface as the SS Liberal goes down.
any PVO hints about Newspoll…anything on Twitter
I reckon Dan Andrews would treat him like the legitimate threat he would be.
Who said he wouldn’t treat him as a threat? Stupid straw man comment
Dan wouldn’t sit back and relax. He’d be hard at work turning Josh’s weaknesses into political gold.
Because Dan’s good at that stuff. And Frydenberg won’t have an effective response no matter how hard the media try to push his barrow. We’re talking about a guy who will have lost on of the Libs blue ribbon seats remember.
It would be like Burke losing Watson and then having a crack at Gladys (if Gladys had won a landslide and didn’t self immolate and Burkey actually wasn’t much snuff).
Calm @beaglie…
I don’t think PVO really talks about NP much any more – it’s down to watching those people in human suits on Sky. If they look/sound excited – you know which way movement has been.
The other point – people have GOT to stop relying on second-hand information on Twitter. “Kroger apparently said…etc”.
hazza4257 @ #701 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:23 pm
I just listened to this interview on the Christiane Amanpour show about the why of the Evangelical Christian project, of which the overturning of Roe V Wade is the climax of that project. It really opened my eyes about the Evangelicals Down Under as well. Apparently the Toxic Masculinity we see expressed by powerful Evangelical Males is a feature, not a bug:
https://youtu.be/whV8heFHXoQ
hazza4257says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:23 pm
You could be correct but this has been a huge win for the christian right and a real momentum creator.
I dont use Twitter, or watch any commercial TV or any ABC for that matter, I dont watch debates, I dont watch my nominal Football team on TV….I get most of my information second hand from PB….it keeps my blood pressure down….
Yes, the Helen Haines thing has become a bit of a cult.
She can do no wrong. No questions can be asked.
Themunz
Is it a momentum creator at the federal level though? A perpetual battleground is great motivation, winning it and transferring battle to the state level might not pay off for them.
BeaglieBoy says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:46 pm
I dont use Twitter, or watch any commercial TV or any ABC for that matter, I dont watch debates, I dont watch my nominal Football team on TV….I get most of my information second hand from PB….it keeps my blood pressure down….
中华人民共和国
Second that
I can imagine Toolman, halfway through the “debate” looking down the camera gravely and saying, “newsflash, we have the latest Newspoll, it’s just come through.
Prime Minister/Mr Albanese, it’s not good news”.
Henry ,
I can imagine that happening too. In fact I think something like that will happen, and the question will be framed, how will you negotiate with indies in a hung parliament.
I think it’ll a little while before the fallout of Roe v Wade is fully measurable, both legally and politically.
@Beaglie… given the propensity for panic, including pre- and post-… might not be the wisest move to rely entirely on this place for accurate reflections of anything.
Commentariat Uprisingsays:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:48 pm
At the state level it is those small states that control the Senate and it will work very well there.
The interesting thing will be watching how aggressive the LNP “local branch” of the GOP become.
Similarly why would a party risk a second safe Federal seat on a numpty that just lost a blue ribbon seat? If you’ve got a leader in a marginal you might swap them a la Beazley. But no one that matters is going to stick their neck out for a Treasurer and Deputy Leader that’s just lost Kooyong.
You could try and argue that Kooyong has become marginal, but that doesn’t do much to support the idea that Josh is an asset if despite all the money that’s been poured into holding it the last two elections he still loses.
Nah. Josh wins this or he’s out of politics.
Wat Tyler
“ActBlue
@actblue
Update: groups and candidates raised $27.5 million on ActBlue from the time of the SCOTUS leak through Thursday. Donors and organizers are showing that they are ready to fight to protect reproductive rights.”
I think it’ll be easy to measure financially at least.
New IPSOS in a few minutes.
Roe v Wade:
There is a term for living creatures who are not permitted to control their own reproduction. That term is “livestock.”
that’ll get the Female vote in for the Repugs
The INDs are really just selling a feelgood, guilt free voting option to the electorate. It’s anti-major party, pro-climate action, pro-integrity, pro-women without actually achieving anything (except in the case of a hung parliament, which is a possibility). I tend to think that independents on the whole in Australia are not that effective.
But it’s no different to the Libs – they’re selling competence, masculinity and strength. Anything deeper than broad themes and platitudes (such as policy or track record) is irrelevant for many people. For me, the Libs’ message boils down to: “we’re not the compassionate guys who promise the world, we’re the guys who take the tough decisions and make sacrifices because that’s necessary to keep Australia great.”
It’s built on this fundamentally flawed logic that the government can’t spend too much or armageddon will occur, that you have to manage the budget like a household budget, and that it’s impossible to help the less fortunate without destroying the economy.
Regardless of the Libs’ shit track record, shit policies and general shitiness, they’ve been good over the years at creating the appearance of competence and professionalism – aided by the media of course. People saw six years of Labor government and, rightly or wrongly, remember it as a period of next-level incompetence and massive uncertainty. They don’t remember all the great policies Gillard passed, probably not even the ones they benefit from today. Again, much of this is down to the media but not exclusively so.
Cronus says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:27 pm
C@T
“ Yep. Good interview by Speers of Spender today. He led her away from her carefully scripted lines into the weeds and got her to put some issues front and centre that Simon Holmes A’Court would probably have preferred were best left unsaid.”
………..
I don’t think Spender ‘misspoke’ or got sucked into discussing non-core issues. The teals aren’t upper middle class Labor or soft Greens. They’re Liberals. Old fashioned ‘broad church’ Liberals with a social conscience and a sense of community. And they want the Liberal Party of their memory/imagination back. They’ve given up on reforming it, so they’re going to try and replace it, local campaign by local campaign.
So of course Spender sounded like a Liberal.
Sorry, it is an IPSOS poll 52 ALP -40 LNP
9 reporting ipsos has LNP falling a further 2% on 2PP to 52-40 ALP with 8% undecided
Nine reporting an Ipsos (unsure methodology) of ALP 52%and Lib 40%. Labor up two on last time. 8% undecided.
south says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:33 pm
OMFG, is newspoll going to drop during the debate tonight? And will there be a question about it….
There’s only one answer…
The only poll that counts is…..