I hesitate to read federal implications into yesterday’s Tasmanian Legislative Council elections, but it may at very least be a sign of the times that Labor and Liberal candidates couldn’t muster half of the vote between them in the by-election for Huon, which encompasses about a third of the federal seat of Franklin. For those of you who are interested (not many, it seems), I will continue to follow the count in the dedicated post in the days to come, in which either Labor or the independent will win the seat depending on how preferences flows. Two other seats, Elwick and McIntyre, were comfortably retained by their respective Labor and independent incumbents.
More directly of relevance:
• The Guardian reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 shows independent Sophie Scamps with a 60-40 lead over Liberal member Jason Falinksi in Mackellar. The primary votes are Falinski 32.0%, Scamps 31.2%, Labor 15.5% and Greens 8.6% with 7% undecided, and a respondent-allocated preference flow of 81-19 in favour of Scamps. The automated phone poll was conducted last week from a sample of 834.
• Countering much of the recent horse race narrative, The Australian reports strategists on both sides say support for the Coalition has fallen away in Queensland. While Brisbane is “the most vulnerable”, Leichhardt, Longman and perhaps also Flynn are “in play”. Ryan is “in danger” from the Greens, and while the same might also be held of Labor-held Griffith, “a Labor strategist said he believed Griffith would hold”. However, a Liberal National Party source’s claim that Labor “has been claiming for the last three elections that they were going to pick up another eight to ten seats and it doesn’t eventuate” is only slightly exaggerated.
• John Ferguson of The Australian adds to a recent chorus of reportage to the effect that Victoria’s lockdowns “will hit hard in pockets across Melbourne’s outer suburbs”, endangering Labor’s hold on McEwen and Corangamite. This time may well be different, but I can’t help noting that the news media doesn’t have a good record of reading Melbourne’s pulse in recent years. After similar suggestions of a threat to Labor in McEwen in 2016 due to a controversy over the Andrews government’s handling of the Country Fire Authority, the seat swung to Labor by 7.7%. Efforts by the Liberal Party and the Herald Sun to promote African gang crime as the defining issue of the 2018 state election fell on the deafest of ears, and after much talk that the “Skyrail” issue would weaken the Andrews goverment’s hold on the crucial sandbelt seats of Melbourne’s south-east, every single one of them recorded a double-digit swing to Labor.
• A report in today’s Age/Herald papers says Liberal MPs are being told not to encourage people to vote early, as they expect, or at least hope, for a late break in their favour. The report also says Labor now is “more hopeful” that Bennelong and Leichhardt are trending its way, but that both sides now expect Dunkley, Lilley, Hunter and Paterson to remain with Labor, and Hasluck, Flynn and Longman to remain with the Coalition.
https://crowdwisdom.live/politics/newspoll2022-australian-election-polls/
B.S. Fairman @ #747 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:03 pm
You scared me! Read it as a 4% swing from 54-46 to 52-48. Hasn’t IPSOS been removing undecideds?
Anyway, never mind me. Good result.
Ghost tweets. It’s marvellous but I don’t know I believe that’s how things are going right now.
Still it is a factor against herding!
So we’ve heard 52-42, 52-40, and 50-40. Which is it?
God damn!
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 43 (-2) ALP 57 (+2) #ausvotes
Ghost tweets that it’s 57/43
https://twitter.com/ghostwhovotes/status/1523212608056094720?s=21&t=WFm4iYhHhEx2AWjNXgefVg
57-43 Ipsos
Note that that’s Ipsos rather than Newspoll.
LNP primary has a 2 in front of it
@Itep – I think the bottom falling out is almost as likely at this stage as considerable further narrowing, but that’s been my feeling for a while.
But historically, you’d assume stasis or narrowing.
I guess hubris, or at least confidence, will be the theme on PB tonight
zoomster says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:48 pm
Yes, the Helen Haines thing has become a bit of a cult.
She can do no wrong. No questions can be asked.
………..
What about the praying roadside wombats Zoomster?
William Bowe says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:08 pm
Note that that’s Ipsos rather than Newspoll.
—
Regardless, it turns up the heat on Morrison before the second debate tonight.
LNP with a 2 in front of its primary vote is a beautiful sight indeed, though I’ll believe it when I see it
Primaries of 29 and 35 respectively. That’d be pretty catastrophic for the Coalition you would think if it was actually reflected on the day.
ooh….that deserves a wee dram when I get home from work
If Newspoll drops during the debate, I daresay both parties will have someone in the crowd using hand signals to convey the news.
Like, for instance…
Thumbs up = Good news.
Thumbs down = Bad news.
Points to crotch = Hung parliament.
hazza4257 says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:09 pm
I guess hubris, or at least confidence, will be the theme on PB tonight
—
I’ll be more than happy just not to repeat 2019 again.
There will be tears at the newscorp offices around Australia tonight. Baxendale will be in the foetal position and Sharri Markson will be praying for a miracle.
57-43!!!
Anthony “Call me Curtin” Albanese lol
I’ll settle for any win but that’s gotta hurt the morale for the Libs. Big time.
hazza4257 says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:11 pm
There will be tears at the newscorp offices around Australia tonight. Baxendale will be in the foetal position and Sharri Markson will be praying for a miracle.
—
I think someone will need to call an ambulance to the Sky studios tonight. Credlin and that windbag Murray will both be apoplectic.
Nothing really happened this week to cause a shift like this. I’d still bet on Newspoll staying the same.
So if Albo doesn’t have a gotcha moment tonight for the Murdoch press you’d have to say he is home and hosed, tracking for a net gain of 20 ish seats?
I feel the LNP need to experience a bushwhacking circa 1993 when Labor was reduced to its core rump of barely 50 seats. They need to lose this “party of government” hubris they have tricked themselves into believing
somethinglikethat @ #772 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:14 pm
I might tune in for once, just for the entertainment!
I think the ‘Help to Buy’ policy has hit its mark.
No way the election will be 57-43 but surely that poll will shake Morrison’s campaign and give Albo a boost into the next 2 weeks.
On the strength of the IPSOS poll I just poured out a nice Australian whiskey!
hazza4257 @ #771 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:15 pm
There was the minor issue of the first interest rate rise in 10 years
hazza4257 @ #771 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:15 pm
You’re ignoring the ALP campaign launch finally washing through?
WTR,
Oh yes, that too. 😀
For those contemplating the Brumby/Hulls scenario for Josh Frydenberg: (a) both had only been backbenchers federally and (b) both entered state parliament at by-elections some years after their federal terms ended. The approximate current analogue would be coming in (as an MP and as leader) in place of Matthew Guy after a 2022 state election loss, and then leading the party to the 2026 state election.
Whoever’s working on the dirt file is gonna have a busy week.
Just watched Insiders. The guest who made the closing remark re millions spent in negative spending made no comment on who would be doing the spending.
I would love to see Labour spend big on negative comments re Morrison and co.
Kevin07 getting fired up:
Kevin Rudd
@MrKRudd
·
2h
So let’s get this straight. The Murdoch monopoly has an indignant sook whenever Turnbull or I engage in political debate, but it’s fine and dandy for Howard to get a front page, and coverage in all of Murdoch’s largest Sunday papers in Australia, to attack Albo & independents.
Murdoch’s CEO in Australia, Michael Miller, assured us their editors would not play favourites this election…In the spirit of fair & balanced journalism, how about I send your editors a statement for next Sunday, outlining my evaluation of Morrison’s corrupt, profligate govt?
As for Howard’s integrity, a man who still opposes the Apology to Indigenous Australians, misled Australians on the Iraq War & tried to take a meat-axe to workers’ rights in this country, why wouldn’t you also lie about Albo if it suited your political interests?
Help to Buy IS working…..my Oldest daughter and her partner are really excited about it and are lots of their friends apparently…( I may even get some bathroom time)
Phil Coorey appeared a little troubled reporting on IPSOS for the AFR.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-steams-ahead-with-two-weeks-to-go-poll-20220508-p5ajgv
Xenu @ #775 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:16 pm
Even if is a rouge poll (which is a good sign that there’s no herding this time) the bottom of the MOE is no change – that’s just fine two weeks out.
I get 56.3-43.7 applying 2019 preference flows to that Ipsos poll.
Work to Rule & Cat
Thanks for reminding!
I think the core misunderstanding from Aly today on interest rates playing into the Libs, rather than Labor is interest rates, as an academic construct, is fundamentally an economic one (hence benefit Libs) – but in practice, it’s a cost of living issue.
D: ”I’m fearful of another term of Morrison & his vampire coven.”
Maybe that can go on a poster…
The thing with RvW is that now it’s not hypothetical.
It’s easy to be blase when it can be sold as just a long shot. Especially when all of the SCOTUS candidates bullshitted about settled precedent.
No hiding the truth now.
If it could ever ever motivate soft Dems to vote it will in November.
I have no idea how it will play out. But with Trump font and centre and now RvW I reckon the Dems are in a lot better position than most people seem to think.
Polls today aren’t likely to be much of an indication of an election in six months time when the opposition is running on unadulterated extremism.
Sorry, I may have got the number wrong. It is on the AFR website but I don’t have a subscription (nor do 99.5% of the Australian Population).
What’s the best paywall bypass extension for Chrome? I get tired of doing the perfectly timed reload on AFR articles
We all know it won’t be 57/43 on the day.
But won’t it be great if the swing is large enough to remove two cancers from Australian politics: Dutton and Frydenberg. Those two top my wishlist.
Toby Esterhase @ #787 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:20 pm
Which isn’t quite right considering the rise of the Teals since 2019.
An 8.5% swing against the Coalition from the 2019 election is a shocker!
New thread.
somethinglikethat @ #794 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:21 pm
I’ll be closely watching Cook, a la 2007. 😀