Sunday’s best: Mackellar poll, Queensland and Victoria state of play

Another uComms seat poll with another dire projection for the Liberals, plus the usual summary of insider horse race talk from the weekend newspapers.

I hesitate to read federal implications into yesterday’s Tasmanian Legislative Council elections, but it may at very least be a sign of the times that Labor and Liberal candidates couldn’t muster half of the vote between them in the by-election for Huon, which encompasses about a third of the federal seat of Franklin. For those of you who are interested (not many, it seems), I will continue to follow the count in the dedicated post in the days to come, in which either Labor or the independent will win the seat depending on how preferences flows. Two other seats, Elwick and McIntyre, were comfortably retained by their respective Labor and independent incumbents.

More directly of relevance:

The Guardian reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 shows independent Sophie Scamps with a 60-40 lead over Liberal member Jason Falinksi in Mackellar. The primary votes are Falinski 32.0%, Scamps 31.2%, Labor 15.5% and Greens 8.6% with 7% undecided, and a respondent-allocated preference flow of 81-19 in favour of Scamps. The automated phone poll was conducted last week from a sample of 834.

• Countering much of the recent horse race narrative, The Australian reports strategists on both sides say support for the Coalition has fallen away in Queensland. While Brisbane is “the most vulnerable”, Leichhardt, Longman and perhaps also Flynn are “in play”. Ryan is “in danger” from the Greens, and while the same might also be held of Labor-held Griffith, “a Labor strategist said he believed Griffith would hold”. However, a Liberal National Party source’s claim that Labor “has been claiming for the last three elections that they were going to pick up another eight to ten seats and it doesn’t eventuate” is only slightly exaggerated.

John Ferguson of The Australian adds to a recent chorus of reportage to the effect that Victoria’s lockdowns “will hit hard in pockets across Melbourne’s outer suburbs”, endangering Labor’s hold on McEwen and Corangamite. This time may well be different, but I can’t help noting that the news media doesn’t have a good record of reading Melbourne’s pulse in recent years. After similar suggestions of a threat to Labor in McEwen in 2016 due to a controversy over the Andrews government’s handling of the Country Fire Authority, the seat swung to Labor by 7.7%. Efforts by the Liberal Party and the Herald Sun to promote African gang crime as the defining issue of the 2018 state election fell on the deafest of ears, and after much talk that the “Skyrail” issue would weaken the Andrews goverment’s hold on the crucial sandbelt seats of Melbourne’s south-east, every single one of them recorded a double-digit swing to Labor.

• A report in today’s Age/Herald papers says Liberal MPs are being told not to encourage people to vote early, as they expect, or at least hope, for a late break in their favour. The report also says Labor now is “more hopeful” that Bennelong and Leichhardt are trending its way, but that both sides now expect Dunkley, Lilley, Hunter and Paterson to remain with Labor, and Hasluck, Flynn and Longman to remain with the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

828 comments on “Sunday’s best: Mackellar poll, Queensland and Victoria state of play”

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  1. Gee, really? 57-43? This is stretching it a bit…..However, as plenty bag Morgan, what can one say? Is this race “herding” or what?

  2. That is the sort of narrowing I like to see; may it continue at the same pace in the same direction.

    Is this why the Liberal campaign has moved to begging for your vote?

  3. Now that we’re getting close the polls may be showing that the undecideds are making up their minds and going to the ALP.
    Pre-poll starts tomorrow. A fair few people will vote early and it may be too late for the Libs who haven’t “launched” their campaign yet.
    Go Albo.

  4. Gotta say,not exactly the poll figures the LNP will like but there is still 2 weeks

    Just waiting for newspoll

  5. Evan:
    “… ,the LNP now can’t replace Vivian Moon as candidate.“

    Vivian Lobo.

    The Where-Wolf of Lilley.

  6. Dr Bonham on Ipsos..

    These numbers if repeated on election day (which I predict they won’t be) would be an absolute bloodbath and an absolutely certain ALP majority; Labor would probably win 95+ seats and the Coalition could fall as low as 40.

  7. @ShowsOn if it’s perceived as ‘who will will the election in your electorate’ then it makes sense that Greens voters, particularly in key seats, to predict their candidate will win.

  8. I remember Keating famously talking about when the electorate just stops listening to what a government on the nose has to say. Once the mythical point has been reached it doesn’t matter what they say or try to spin. Looks like The Morrison gov is offical terminal. I have a feeling he will be really p$&sed to have to vacate kirribilli

  9. Will Newspoll abandon professional integrity to roll out another fantasy 51-48 tightening up special to appease their overlords and invent a non existent narrative ?

  10. hazza4257says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:09 pm
    I guess hubris, or at least confidence, will be the theme on PB tonight

    Please Noooooooo!

  11. hazza4257says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:15 pm
    Nothing really happened this week to cause a shift like this. I’d still bet on Newspoll staying the same.

    Interest rate has gone up in 11 1/2 years. I hope you understand what that means.

  12. I note that here in daH Cave, i have been getting ALP adds on my Facebook that are Budget announcements (the good ones 🙂 ) from Marc McGowan about how he is going to spend some of his budget surplus (you know, the one you get when the Lib / Nats are always such better economic managers ) when the W.A. budget comes down on May 12…….which happens to be before the election wot. 🙂

    Tactically interesting how it will spin.

    And how will Morriscum try and get some of the reflected glow of his good mate Mark?? 🙁

    Wonder if court expenses fighting Morriscums good mate Clive will get a mention ??

    Albo just needs to do the “Yeah, sensible Budget in W.A. that looks after people…. that’s what Labor does. “

  13. BKsays:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:16 pm
    On the strength of the IPSOS poll I just poured out a nice Australian whiskey!

    Are you pouring out a nice Australia whiskey only for good news? 🙂

  14. BK: “On the strength of the IPSOS poll I just poured out a nice Australian whiskey!”

    Oz these days has a number of fine whiskeys, but I have to say that I’m working my way through the Starward line-up, and feeling like I’m going to replace them when I finish one.

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