I hesitate to read federal implications into yesterday’s Tasmanian Legislative Council elections, but it may at very least be a sign of the times that Labor and Liberal candidates couldn’t muster half of the vote between them in the by-election for Huon, which encompasses about a third of the federal seat of Franklin. For those of you who are interested (not many, it seems), I will continue to follow the count in the dedicated post in the days to come, in which either Labor or the independent will win the seat depending on how preferences flows. Two other seats, Elwick and McIntyre, were comfortably retained by their respective Labor and independent incumbents.
More directly of relevance:
• The Guardian reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 shows independent Sophie Scamps with a 60-40 lead over Liberal member Jason Falinksi in Mackellar. The primary votes are Falinski 32.0%, Scamps 31.2%, Labor 15.5% and Greens 8.6% with 7% undecided, and a respondent-allocated preference flow of 81-19 in favour of Scamps. The automated phone poll was conducted last week from a sample of 834.
• Countering much of the recent horse race narrative, The Australian reports strategists on both sides say support for the Coalition has fallen away in Queensland. While Brisbane is “the most vulnerable”, Leichhardt, Longman and perhaps also Flynn are “in play”. Ryan is “in danger” from the Greens, and while the same might also be held of Labor-held Griffith, “a Labor strategist said he believed Griffith would hold”. However, a Liberal National Party source’s claim that Labor “has been claiming for the last three elections that they were going to pick up another eight to ten seats and it doesn’t eventuate” is only slightly exaggerated.
• John Ferguson of The Australian adds to a recent chorus of reportage to the effect that Victoria’s lockdowns “will hit hard in pockets across Melbourne’s outer suburbs”, endangering Labor’s hold on McEwen and Corangamite. This time may well be different, but I can’t help noting that the news media doesn’t have a good record of reading Melbourne’s pulse in recent years. After similar suggestions of a threat to Labor in McEwen in 2016 due to a controversy over the Andrews government’s handling of the Country Fire Authority, the seat swung to Labor by 7.7%. Efforts by the Liberal Party and the Herald Sun to promote African gang crime as the defining issue of the 2018 state election fell on the deafest of ears, and after much talk that the “Skyrail” issue would weaken the Andrews goverment’s hold on the crucial sandbelt seats of Melbourne’s south-east, every single one of them recorded a double-digit swing to Labor.
• A report in today’s Age/Herald papers says Liberal MPs are being told not to encourage people to vote early, as they expect, or at least hope, for a late break in their favour. The report also says Labor now is “more hopeful” that Bennelong and Leichhardt are trending its way, but that both sides now expect Dunkley, Lilley, Hunter and Paterson to remain with Labor, and Hasluck, Flynn and Longman to remain with the Coalition.
“Liberal MPs are being told not to encourage people to vote early, as they expect, or at least hope, for a late break in their favour.”
A ‘late break’? What cunning stunt does ScoMo have up his sleeve?
The Cnuts won’t hold back the tide of early voting.
‘The Liberal Democrats candidate for the federal seat of Brisbane says he “deeply regrets” a history of offensive Facebook posts, including messages that were antisemitic, described Indigenous Australians as “the enemy” and celebrated white supremacist culture.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/08/i-am-not-a-nazi-liberal-democrats-candidate-deeply-regrets-white-supremacist-facebook-posts?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I really do hope that all this polling showing Teals and indies in Liberal seats being competitive and/or ahead of the incumbent bears fruit on election day. I just don’t think much if anything will change.
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:16 am
“Liberal MPs are being told not to encourage people to vote early, as they expect, or at least hope, for a late break in their favour.”
A ‘late break’? What cunning stunt does ScoMo have up his sleeve?
———————————————–
Scott Morrison has nothing up his sleeve he and his cronies are toast ,its
the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units who probably have one last dash of desperation in smear and fear
Pre – poll voting starts tomorrow. You would think the Loyal Lapdogs ™ of Murdoch tabloids would be doubling down on Albo gaffes, hokey cartoons and the end of the world as Rupert knows it.
Instead we get begging front pages, the Herald Sun, which has exhumed The Lying Rodent…
The Daily ToiletPaper speaking directly to their bogan base..
And the CM alluding to indigenous culture wars…
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This is quite a contrast to yesterday’s spambuster!
According to David Crowe, Anthony Albanese will promise new economic measures to achieve gender equity and has vowed his campaign will “step up” in the final two weeks.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-promises-new-policies-for-women-and-campaign-step-up-20220506-p5aj59.html
Caitlin Fitzsimmons writes that the comments from prominent members of the Morrison government and opposition marked a significant shift in tone given both parties have repeatedly ruled out making deals to form a minority government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hung-parliament-no-nightmare-scenario-candidates-tell-political-forum-20220507-p5ajcx.html
It is utterly ridiculous to suggest that legitimate candidates engaging in a democratic process are somehow anti-democratic. On the contrary, the independents represent the efforts of our democratic system to serve a market that has been neglected by the major parties for too long. The demand is there, and supply has arrived, says Jacqui Maley.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-true-the-independents-are-agents-of-chaos-for-the-major-parties-that-is-20220506-p5aj31.html
Poor old Gerard Henderson sheds a lot of tears here as he gets so upset at all the former Liberal luminaries unloading at the malaise of the Liberal party. Of course, he blames the ABC and other “left wing” media for giving them oxygen.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/former-leaders-line-up-to-betray-party-that-made-them/news-story/30c0c6ad4d64fc9e6d334afd739ddc26
Tony Wright feels the bad vibes and writes about how a new wave has shaken Josh Frydenberg’s throne.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bad-vibes-how-a-new-wave-has-shaken-josh-frydenberg-s-throne-20220506-p5aj3x.html
With two weeks to go until the 2022 federal election, most of the key policy offerings from the major parties have already been outlined – but there are some big gaps. From conservation to education and the arts, both Labor and the Coalition have been short on detail. The Guardian points to six areas where voters are being left in the dark.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/08/missing-in-action-five-issues-the-major-parties-are-avoiding-in-the-2022-federal-election
Dan Jervis-Bardy tells us how Scott Morrison has a federal election problem in northern Tasmania, especially in Bass.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7728481/sorry-bridget-the-prime-ministers-got-a-problem-in-northern-tasmania/?cs=14329
Fears that the cashless debit card will be implemented for all income recipients across the board, including those on the age pension, appear to originate from the Government’s own information and statements, writes Michelle Pini who says it’s not Labor that needs to stop frightening pensioners.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/fact–its-not-labor-that-needs-to-stop-frightening-pensioners,16326
The Australian government says almost nine out of 10 visits to GP clinics are bulk-billed, but a health insurance researcher says gap fees often aren’t recorded, meaning the official data is “a great big lie”, repots Melissa Davey.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/08/a-great-big-lie-researcher-disputes-government-claim-that-90-of-gp-visits-are-bulk-billed
Peter FitzSimons has interviews Barrie Cassidy who, on Morrison, says he admires his tenacity but he’s no Bob Hawke. Quite a good read.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/barrie-cassidy-on-scott-morrison-i-admire-his-tenacity-but-he-s-no-bob-hawke-20220506-p5aj64.html
Andrew Brown writes that Morrison has reignited the religious discrimination debate that drove a wedge through the Coalition.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/05/07/morrison-religious-discrimination-debate/?breaking_live_scroll=1
The Age tells us that critically ill patients are being resuscitated in corridors and emergency department waiting rooms, as medical staff sound the alarm over further deterioration in overcrowded hospitals in Victoria.
https://www.theage.com.au/healthcare/it-feels-like-you-re-just-trying-to-save-disasters-from-happening-20220504-p5aihi.html
Alezandra Smith writes that ministers must give written reasons for approving taxpayer-funded grants, according to the state’s two top public servants in a new report sparked after several damaging pork-barrelling scandals. All grants must also be publicly available on a central website, including any record of a minister deviating from the advice of public servants, the review of grants administration in NSW says.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ministers-must-show-reasons-for-pork-barrelling-grants-report-20220507-p5ajct.html
Once a daily obsession, Australians now seem largely inured to the sobering daily stats from the ongoing pandemic.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/we-re-living-with-covid-but-more-of-us-are-dying-than-ever-20220429-p5ah7y.html
Fox News deals in Kremlin propaganda. So why not freeze Rupert Murdoch’s assets, asks Nick Cohen.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/07/fox-new-deals-in-kremlin-propaganda-freeze-rupert-murdochs-assets
Cartoon Corner
Peter Broelman
Matt Golding
Matt Davidson
Reg Lynch
From the US
Just in case you can’t see who the ‘Maverick MP’ who is going to bring in the Bogan Base to the LNP, it is Matt Canavan…
Well there you go. Proof they have no agenda or plans outside of simply being elected.
Don’t tell me. The ‘Bogan Vote Counts’ article was written by Barnaby’s partner?
Lol Fess!
Confessions @ #9 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 7:10 am
What we get from the Coalition before the election:
What we get after the election from the Coalition if they’re elected to government again:
Thanks BK and thanks William. Encouraging to see the suggestions that Qld may be looking better. And I’ve also been skeptical about the McEwen/Corangamite narrative.
The next round of polls will set the scene for the last phase of the campaign. I always have some trepidation about them. Apart from the actual numbers they churn out, it’ll be important to know if the possible herding pattern noted by Mark the Ballot for the last round happens again. If it does the actual numbers they churn out will need to be treated with great caution.
If the Libs are being asked to discourage early voting then sfm must have something up his sleeve.
We’ll see what drops just before or during the debates.
That Munch painting has always deeply disturbed me.
I think it’s horrible but apt if the Coalition win the election.
Always suspicious of media speculation prior to an election, but if the story about discouraging people from voting early is true it seems pretty desperate and surely could never have much of an impact.
If you think SfM doesn’t have anything up his sleeve, you have not been paying attention.
I’m expecting a day before the election social media campaign stating that albo has been charged with espionage and treason and is planning to flee to China.
There are no depths to which the right will not sink
”
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:24 am
‘The Liberal Democrats candidate for the federal seat of Brisbane says he “deeply regrets” a history of offensive Facebook posts, including messages that were antisemitic, described Indigenous Australians as “the enemy” and celebrated white supremacist culture.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/08/i-am-not-a-nazi-liberal-democrats-candidate-deeply-regrets-white-supremacist-facebook-posts?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
”
Freya
If the Lib-Dem candidate is not a nazi as he says then how can you classify him.
Is Anthony Bull a bullshit artist?
Calls growing in the UK for Murdoch’s assets to be frozen…
If the west could find the courage, it would order an immediate freeze of Rupert Murdoch’s assets. His Fox News presenters and Russia’s propagandists are so intermeshed that separating the two is as impossible as unbaking a cake.
On Russian state news, as on Fox, bawling ideologues scream threats then whine about their victimhood as they incite anger and self-pity in equal measures. Its arguments range from the appropriation of anti-fascism by Greater Russian imperialists – the 40 countries supporting Ukraine were “today’s collective Hitler”, viewers were told last week – to the apocalyptic delirium of the boss of RT (Russia Today) Margarita Simonyan. Nuclear war is my “horror”, she shuddered, “but we will go to heaven, while they will simply croak”.
…..
Tender-hearted readers may object that Murdoch is now 90 and may well not be in full control of his organisation. But surely this is an argument for removing him? If in his dotage he is allowing himself to become a cross between Lord Haw Haw and Tokyo Rose, it would be a kindness for western governments to save him from himself.
Nick Cohen is an Observer columnist
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/07/fox-new-deals-in-kremlin-propaganda-freeze-rupert-murdochs-assets
The mornings are so beautiful up here at this time of the year.
”
Confessionssays:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:59 am
I really do hope that all this polling showing Teals and indies in Liberal seats being competitive and/or ahead of the incumbent bears fruit on election day. I just don’t think much if anything will change.
”
But as per WB compilation
“A report in today’s Age/Herald papers says Liberal MPs are being told not to encourage people to vote early, as they expect, or at least hope, for a late break in their favour.”
Who could possibly disagree….
BK:
Not a bad morning here either!
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:05 am
Pre – poll voting starts tomorrow. You would think the Loyal Lapdogs ™ of Murdoch tabloids would be doubling down on Albo gaffes, hokey cartoons and the end of the world as Rupert knows it.
Instead we get begging front pages, the Herald Sun, which has exhumed The Lying Rodent…
”
Beaglieboy
Did Howard make any difference in SA State election?
“The Guardian reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 shows independent Sophie Scamps with a 60-40 lead over Liberal member Jason Falinksi in Mackellar. The primary votes are Falinski 32.0%, Scamps 31.2%, Labor 15.5% and Greens 8.6% with 7% undecided, and a respondent-allocated preference flow of 81-19 in favour of Scamps. The automated phone poll was conducted last week from a sample of 834.”
In 2019 Falinski won on primary votes… So, Mackellar is THAT kind of seat…. If at this election Falinski is trashed by the combined votes of Independent, Labor and Greens, as the uComms poll suggests, then a clear pattern for the future of Australian politics may be set…. and it may stay at least until the Liberal party goes through a serious ideological reform. … Good luck with that….
From the Daily Telegraph:
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The media pack pursuing Albo is living down to its name. But the thing that really shocked me was the Newscorp paper stories that John Howard had come out against Albo. Howard against Labor! Now that is news.
It is making less headlines but the Inland Rail Boondoggle is still mired in uncertainty. How could anyone commit originally $10 billion (now $14 billion) to a promised rail line without a finalised route and no clear business case? This project was little better than Pork and Ride. Labor in office might be able to do something useful with it, but that may require major change. Or just save $12 billion.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/06/the-right-railway-in-the-wrong-place-narrabri-council-objects-to-route-of-145bn-inland-rail
Confessions, BK thanks for the beautiful photos too 🙂
“Biglyboy
Did Howard make any difference in SA State election?”…
Who gives a damn about Howard?…. Perhaps a bunch of 65+ years old, that’s it. That is, people who would vote for the Coalition with or without Howard’s intervention.
sprocket_says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:05 am
………………
……..
Daily ToiletPaper speaking directly to their bogan base..
”
Ha ha ha ha ha ha………
I’ve just been reading one of BK’s links ( thanks BK) I know I’m stating the bleeding obvious but is Scomoe the most unprincipled PM we have ever experienced? Does he believe what he says? And how bad is our media that they will go to any length to defend him. I really hope the people of Australia are aware of this, ignore the partisan media and consign this man of no integrity to history.
When is the Liberal campaign launch?
Howard, the father of ‘liars’!
He was a gangrenous leader!
Probably not…..although he did campaign in Norwood for Steven Marshalls own seat….which he ended up holding by the skin of his teeth. Did he change a single vote by his presence? Does any politician walking down the main street make a difference?
”
Confessionssays:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 8:00 am
From the Daily Telegraph:
”
Look who is talking! Remember 1996 grandpa, where you did the same thing. Still producing Chutzpahs after all these years.
Swing to the ALP in Qld?
“However, a Liberal National Party source’s claim that Labor “has been claiming for the last three elections that they were going to pick up another eight to ten seats and it doesn’t eventuate” is only slightly exaggerated.”
I didn’t see any serious effort by the ALP here in Qld for the last 3 elections. For some reason, they may have deluded themselves that they could make up the losses in Qld with wins elsewhere in the country. But the delusion is over, and the ALP effort in Qld has been quite remarkable this time around. Will it produce the expected results (at least a 2PP of roughly 50-50)?… Well, that’s what the opinion polls are saying at the moment and that’s what happened already in 2007.
https://icelandmag.is/article/00-icelanders-25-years-or-younger-believe-god-created-world-poll-reveals?fbclid=IwAR38nl1UptEokLyhgq4JRqqZ8vxbdUvbFViCEI_7Ez3eIBuNkU9DIvfIIns Good on the young people of Iceland
”
Poor old Gerard Henderson sheds a lot of tears here as he gets so upset at all the former Liberal luminaries unloading at the malaise of the Liberal party. Of course, he blames the ABC and other “left wing” media for giving them oxygen.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/former-leaders-line-up-to-betray-party-that-made-them/news-story/30c0c6ad4d64fc9e6d334afd739ddc26
”
So Henderson is still unloading on their ABC even after it behaved like State broadcaster instead of Public Broadcaster.
Howard looks like some suit store manikin with a head transplant
“Howard warns ‘grumpy Liberal’ defectors could destroy party”
He says that like it’s a bad thing!
“Kirkysays:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 8:04 am
When is the Liberal campaign launch?”….
Soon, from Cape Cañaveral… The entire Liberal party will be launched to meet their destiny in a one way trip into the closest political black hole….
Further to my previous comment, it should be obvious to any engaged person that this government is one of the most talentless of recent times, so much so that their amateur hour shenanigans have actually made Australia much less safe. My question is how bad does a conservative government have to get before our media stops telling us to vote for them and asks us to kick them out.
Howard is right abut the Lite. They will upend the Liberals. While the Lite would certainly be well aware of that, Howard seems oblivious to the reality: this is what they intend to do. It turns out that his political project has an expiry date: 21 May 2022. The reactionary device modelled in his image is obsolete.
Speaking of John Howard and rail, when he was PM he famously spent $1b on the white elephant Adelaide to Alice Springs railway.
And then sold it to a US company for $400m.
What could the lnp have up its sleeve?
“Albo eats kittens, puppies and babies for breakfast in a secret ccp meeting”
In regards The Age online, behind a paywall, there is reference to the fight in the leafy seats of Kooyong
The photos attached are defaced Frydenbeeg signage
No photo of obviously professionally defaced Independent signage, linking to the Greens party
I wonder if this defacing is covered, replicating as it does the time honoured campaigning of the Liberal Party that vote Labor, get Green?
And obviously orchestrated, at cost
And into this mix, the Pentecoostal with the glass jaw goes religious freedom
Now, I am not religious but, from where I sit, my anecdotal opinion is that we have religious freedom in Australia (including Bible groups established by individuals – and enjoying tax free status. I could even start my own religion from my back shed!)
So why the focus on religious freedom?
And, from the Census, what is the importance of religion among Australians?
And what is the trend line?
Noting the Pentecostal with the glass jaw says he (re?) hung the portrait of the Queen in his office (so did Turnbull remove it, if it was there in the first place?)
Meanwhile it is Sunday and the footy is on
And Mother’s Day to boot (excuse the connection)
And where has the economy gone, noting the underperforming out year GDP predictions by the RBA (so once the cash reserves accrued over the initial stages of the Pandemic are spent or put back under the bed)and the savaging of Equity Markets, spooked by rising interest rates and the prospects of a recession
And wages not rising until the end of 2023, noting the inflation predictions – so wages further lagging inflation furthe contracting the economy
Instead we get religious freedom, from a preacher
BK @ #20 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 7:49 am
Heysen-esque
To respond to an item in the post, we are supposed to believe that anger about lockdowns in Melbourne is going to lose Labor.. Corangamite.. which isn’t in Melbourne at all. Geelong and surrounds were spared the worst of lockdowns and my impression from having lived there in 2020 was that Andrews was rather popular. Would any Australian journo ever be seen slumming it in Geelong?
Waleed on Insiders will all be about Waleed
Some minor updates to John Howard and the Adelaide to Darwin railway fiasco…
THE Adelaide to Darwin railway has been bought by a New York Stock Exchange-listed company for $334 million from debt-ridden owner FreightLink.
Genesee & Wyoming Inc – which has been managing the line since 2004 – has signed an agreement with KordaMentha, receivers and managers of FreightLink, to buy the assets of FreightLink for $334 million (US$277.2 million at current exchange rates).
The railway – opened amid much fanfare by the Howard Government in 2003 – is used to haul general freight and military equipment, particularly Abram tanks to the Cultana training ground near Port Augusta.
FreightLink also had mining contracts with Prominent Hill in SA and Bootu Creek mine and Frances Creek in NT.
The railway has effectively removed 500 heavy vehicles a week from road routes, cutting fuel and greenhouse gas emissions by 66 per cent per tonne transported.
The acquisition is subject to government approvals, but GWI expects to close the deal and start operations in the fourth quarter of 2010.
The rail line, which has been on the market for two years, is located on land leased to FreightLink by the AustralAsia Railway Corporation under a concession agreement that terminates in 2054.
FreightLink commenced operations in 2004, following the $1.2 billion construction of the Alice Springs to Darwin portion of the rail line. FreightLink has been in receivership since November 2008.
Attempts have been made to sell the asset since KordaMentha were appointed to the company in November 2008, but the lack of “attractive” bids due to the global financial crisis stalled efforts.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/freightlink-owned-adelaide-darwin-railway-to-be-sold-to-us-company-genesee-wyoming/news-story/a9c5cd0ac21b297c17ec0f1688bb158a
Howard is the creator and author of the evil that is the current LNP. As useless and weak as he was Turnbull was BETTER than the Howard legacy called for.
Morrison has only stunts, up his sleeve or anywhere else and people know this, there is no possible surprise anyone will believe. I think even and AFP raid would be a non-event, their corruption and inaction is as partisan as the US supreme court, the AFP have less credibility that the Metro, both of them acting as arms of their local radical far right parties.
Finally and joyfully today (if it is open and tomorrow if it is not) is the end of the election for me. All over and done.