Sunday’s best: Mackellar poll, Queensland and Victoria state of play

Another uComms seat poll with another dire projection for the Liberals, plus the usual summary of insider horse race talk from the weekend newspapers.

I hesitate to read federal implications into yesterday’s Tasmanian Legislative Council elections, but it may at very least be a sign of the times that Labor and Liberal candidates couldn’t muster half of the vote between them in the by-election for Huon, which encompasses about a third of the federal seat of Franklin. For those of you who are interested (not many, it seems), I will continue to follow the count in the dedicated post in the days to come, in which either Labor or the independent will win the seat depending on how preferences flows. Two other seats, Elwick and McIntyre, were comfortably retained by their respective Labor and independent incumbents.

More directly of relevance:

• The Guardian reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 shows independent Sophie Scamps with a 60-40 lead over Liberal member Jason Falinksi in Mackellar. The primary votes are Falinski 32.0%, Scamps 31.2%, Labor 15.5% and Greens 8.6% with 7% undecided, and a respondent-allocated preference flow of 81-19 in favour of Scamps. The automated phone poll was conducted last week from a sample of 834.

• Countering much of the recent horse race narrative, The Australian reports strategists on both sides say support for the Coalition has fallen away in Queensland. While Brisbane is “the most vulnerable”, Leichhardt, Longman and perhaps also Flynn are “in play”. Ryan is “in danger” from the Greens, and while the same might also be held of Labor-held Griffith, “a Labor strategist said he believed Griffith would hold”. However, a Liberal National Party source’s claim that Labor “has been claiming for the last three elections that they were going to pick up another eight to ten seats and it doesn’t eventuate” is only slightly exaggerated.

• John Ferguson of The Australian adds to a recent chorus of reportage to the effect that Victoria’s lockdowns “will hit hard in pockets across Melbourne’s outer suburbs”, endangering Labor’s hold on McEwen and Corangamite. This time may well be different, but I can’t help noting that the news media doesn’t have a good record of reading Melbourne’s pulse in recent years. After similar suggestions of a threat to Labor in McEwen in 2016 due to a controversy over the Andrews government’s handling of the Country Fire Authority, the seat swung to Labor by 7.7%. Efforts by the Liberal Party and the Herald Sun to promote African gang crime as the defining issue of the 2018 state election fell on the deafest of ears, and after much talk that the “Skyrail” issue would weaken the Andrews goverment’s hold on the crucial sandbelt seats of Melbourne’s south-east, every single one of them recorded a double-digit swing to Labor.

• A report in today’s Age/Herald papers says Liberal MPs are being told not to encourage people to vote early, as they expect, or at least hope, for a late break in their favour. The report also says Labor now is “more hopeful” that Bennelong and Leichhardt are trending its way, but that both sides now expect Dunkley, Lilley, Hunter and Paterson to remain with Labor, and Hasluck, Flynn and Longman to remain with the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

828 comments on “Sunday’s best: Mackellar poll, Queensland and Victoria state of play”

Comments Page 14 of 17
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  1. ratsaksays: Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 4:28 pm

    I can think of little Dan Andrews would enjoy more than facing off against Josh Frydenberg as Loto.

    Go back and watch the video of Jay tearing him a new one, or his current challenger towelling him up at their debate. Trump would call him ‘low energy’ and for once not be lying.

    He has a nasty streak barely concealed, but he’s as inspiring as day old dishwasher.

    ……………………………………………………………………………………..

    To Josh :

  3. Pi says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 4:05 pm
    If Frydenberg loses (still 50/50 IMO) he would walk into Tim Smith’s seat un-opposed.

    If a Labor Gov looks more likely in next 2 weeks you might expect a pickup for Josh.. the Kooyong Burghers will rally around to keep Potato Head away from leader of opposition

  4. Lol there is no dirt on Albo to put in a file. He’s as honest as the day is long.

    Morrison banging on about LGBTQI kids today in the context of the next religious freedom bill shows you how desperate he is – he’s pandering to his base in the hope they’ll still vote for him. If he was genuinely hopeful of taking seats off Labor he’d be looking to get the message out he’ll protect them. He’s virtually mailing it in now.

  5. Pi @ #607 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 3:54 pm

    I get it that the ALP faithful think the attack lines on Frydenberg write themselves, but I reckon you’re underestimating how effective he might be when he’s not encumbered by the rabid federal nationals. A lot of people would see him as a Kean analogue. I won’t vote for him, but I expect a lot of people would. More than for Guy or whatshisname.

    That was probably true, 4 years ago. Frydenberg has now been firmly connected to Morrison, and I don’t think switching to state politics would help at all.

    But more than that, you’ve forgotten that the Liberals would need to choose to have him. He’s about to lose one of the Liberals’ most notable seats. I don’t see him getting the pre-selection.

  6. “ That is my actual belief. Carmel and Anthony seemed like the most perfectly happily married couple. Until they weren’t. But there’s never even been the hint of impropriety about their marriage. But I honestly am only speculating.”

    Bless, but you are prepared to believe in unicorns in support of the Labor cause. Everybody on this board – including me – are to some degree or rather, merely speculating. However, I for one have been aware for many years of at least three different sets of rumours that would seriously challenge your earnest beliefs. I would add that none of them worry me very much (in fact I don’t even positively believe any of them) – as none of them involve the level of corrupt deception that surrounds Barnaby creating a fake job to hide his illicit lover in for example, but IF the dirt was run at exactly the right time and in the right context it could derail the last week of the campaign and could well damage the clear gender advantage that Labor presently enjoys with women voters.

  7. Cronus @ #604 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 3:48 pm

    From the Oz (if it can be believed)

    “ ‘Teal’ independent Allegra Spender supports possible increase of GST as part of wider tax review; will ‘negotiate with either side if it comes to forming government’.”

    Spender certainly not ruling out supporting anti-climate change Morrison and open to GST increase. All very Liberal. Not sure this will help her cause. Starting to question the point of her over Sharma, they sound the same, Liberal.

    Yep. Good interview by Speers of Spender today. He led her away from her carefully scripted lines into the weeds and got her to put some issues front and centre that Simon Holmes A’Court would probably have preferred were best left unsaid.

  8. The Sky after dark crew will no doubt go their hardest in the final days and they’ll successfully whip their 27 viewers into a frenzy.

    7 & 9 6oclock ‘news’ will stir up their mostly boomer audience who will loyally stick with their historical voting pattern.

    Everyone else will be watching MAFS and playing video games and commenting on bigfooty and facebook.

    There’s no Tampa. There’s no 911. There’s no hope for Morrison and Frydenberg.

  9. About the only impropriety in a marriage that would worry voters would probably be an open marriage People aren’t ready for that yet.

  11. The Teals have to say they would be willing to deal with the Liberals. It’s a careful dance, but they are committed to removing the government.

  12. Andrew_Earlwood @ #653 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:40 pm

    “ That is my actual belief. Carmel and Anthony seemed like the most perfectly happily married couple. Until they weren’t. But there’s never even been the hint of impropriety about their marriage. But I honestly am only speculating.”

    Bless, but you are prepared to believe in unicorns in support of the Labor cause. Everybody on this board – including me – are to some degree or rather, merely speculating. However, I for one have been aware for many years of at least three different sets of rumours that would seriously challenge your earnest beliefs. I would add that none of them worry me very much (in fact I don’t even positively believe any of them) – as none of them involve the level of corrupt deception that surrounds Barnaby creating a fake job to hide his illicit lover in for example, but IF the dirt was run at exactly the right time and in the right context it could derail the last week of the campaign and could well damage the clear gender advantage that Labor presently enjoys with women voters.

    So much so that it would get them to vote for the guy who presides over a government that tries its best to cover up alleged sexual assaults in Minister’s offices, plus a laundry list of other chauvinistic and abusive behaviour by BSDs in his government towards women?

    Okay. I guess. If you say so. 😐

  13. JayC @ #646 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:36 pm

    I am however going to add some food for thought.

    Grace Tame, Brittany Higgans and Rachel Miller have all been rather quiet of recent.

    Given they all know each other. And one was a senior media advisor. Does anyone else think dirt might arise at an opportune time?

    Their silence seems hard to explain otherwise.

    Tame interviewed Albo a few weeks ago. Quite a good read actually if anyone’s interested.

    https://instyleaustralia.com.au/anthony-albanese-grace-tame-in-conversation

  14. Freya Stark @ #549 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 2:37 pm

    I reckon parachuting Tony Abbott into Lilley to replace Vivian Lobo would be a good move. With the promise of a ministry if he wins for a start.

    I have to ask – are you suggesting at this election? Because that’s not an option – literally. There’s no mechanism to change the candidate on the ballot at this point. Lobo is the candidate.

    Or do you mean in 2025? Because by then, you’d hope that the LNP would be able to come up with a viable candidate, and would want to put the past 9 years behind them (even if they somehow managed to win).

    Or are you trying to suggest that Lobo would win after it has become public that he broke electoral law, and then there would be a by-election, and somehow Abbott would win it, despite by-elections soon after the original election tending to go poorly for the incumbent’s party?

  15. As I mentioned before they tried this with Rudd when all else had failed back in 2007, it made no difference as the accusations were all a bit WTF. The fact that we are getting please keep Joshy signs says it all for me. Everybody should just stay calm and remember that this is the worst government in living memory with a frontman who stinks in ice.

  17. I don’t think dirt is the worry for the next two weeks. I’m much more nervous about what Clive’s $70M might get up to in that period.
    Morrison is like the Black Knight right now. But Clive might just start trying to stick his arms and legs back on.

  18. nath @ #655 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:46 pm

    The Teals have to say they would be willing to deal with the Liberals. It’s a careful dance, but they are committed to removing the government.

    More accurately, they’re committed to removing Morrison. I’m pretty sure they’ve said that it would be a precondition for them negotiating with the Coalition.

  20. Boinzo @ #664 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:48 pm

    I don’t think dirt is the worry for the next two weeks. I’m much more nervous about what Clive’s $70M might get up to in that period.
    Morrison is like the Black Knight right now. But Clive might just start trying to stick his arms and legs back on.

    I have been told that Clive Palmer is actually running that ‘Chinese Airstrip in Far North WA paid for by Labor’ ad again in WA. If that’s the best Clive Palmer has got. I mean, people can just go to google earth now and check!

  22. Just how many coverups can one guy generate?

    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    59m
    Scott Morrison to investigate whether Alan Tudge reported property transfer | http://news.com.au

    Scotty has to find him first

  23. So a poster called Malcolm makes stuff up about a dirt file and all the hares are running madly about chasing shadows of “rumours” which if dropped at precisely the right time will eat into Labor’s vote.

    Oh dear.

  24. “but IF the dirt was run at exactly the right time and in the right context it could derail the last week of the campaign and could well damage the clear gender advantage that Labor presently enjoys with women voters.”

    Wouldn’t the right time and context have been when all these Lib sex scandals came out last year? Seems odd to leave that image percolating for essentially a whole election year if you had anything provable in the tank.

  25. C@tmomma @ #668 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:52 pm

    Boinzo @ #664 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:48 pm

    I don’t think dirt is the worry for the next two weeks. I’m much more nervous about what Clive’s $70M might get up to in that period.
    Morrison is like the Black Knight right now. But Clive might just start trying to stick his arms and legs back on.

    I have been told that Clive Palmer is actually running that ‘Chinese Airstrip in Far North WA paid for by Labor’ ad again in WA. If that’s the best Clive Palmer has got. I mean, people can just go to google earth now and check!

    But 2019!
    Thanks Cat. You’re right of course.

  26. ” but IF the dirt was run at exactly the right time and in the right context it could derail the last week of the campaign and could well damage the clear gender advantage that Labor presently enjoys with women voters.”

    Are you saying there are credible rumors which would threaten the outcome of the election and the caucus still made him leader? Do they like losing? Do they not want to win?

  27. The idea of a dirt dump on Labor being effective relies on Labor not having an effective response. I am pretty sure Labor has stuff on Morrison and they will have ensured that the LNP have got the message it will be used if necessary.

    Labor is on the front foot now and the LNP is playing defence – not a good idea for them (the LNO) to try a risky play.

  28. And just when Scott Morrison thought the Deves play to the religious bigots in the Red Wall of Western Sydney was a winner… the wheels come off from the left flank of his party. Again:

    Scott Morrison has claimed gay students are not being expelled from religious schools while defending his decision to delay protections for them until after the passage of the religious discrimination bill.

    The Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, hit back at the comments on Sunday, accusing anyone who thinks young people are not “discriminated and vilified” based on their sexuality of having views that don’t reflect “reality”.

    Morrison’s comments resurfaced division in the Liberal party, with backbench MP Katie Allen reiterating that she will continue to support changes “to protect gay and trans students” which she labelled “not negotiable”.

    MPs Bridget Archer and Trent Zimmerman also confirmed to Guardian Australia their position remains unchanged.

    Morrison is under pressure over his commitment to religious groups to reintroduce the religious bill “as stand-alone legislation” and to refuse “any attempts to make changes to other laws that undermine protections for religious institutions”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/08/scott-morrison-defends-delaying-protections-for-lgbtq-students-as-party-tensions-resurface?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  29. Didn’t they give coverage to Rudd going to a strip show?

    And who, among the male contributors, has not been to a strip show?

    Do they still have them in Hindley Street?

    And, if the Pentecostal with the glass jaw says it, it must be right?

    Right?

    So the Pentecostal has knowledge from ALL private, religious orientated schools across the Nation.

    The old story.

    NEVER presume to speak on behalf of others.

  31. ratsak: “I can think of little Dan Andrews would enjoy more than facing off against Josh Frydenberg as Loto.”

    I reckon Dan Andrews would treat him like the legitimate threat he would be.

  32. “The idea of a dirt dump on Labor being effective relies on Labor not having an effective response.”

    Yeah I don’t think it’s wise for the LNP or media to declare open season on sex pests.

  33. Wat Tyler says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 4:59 pm

    nath @ #659 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:14 pm

    About the only impropriety in a marriage that would worry voters would probably be an open marriage People aren’t ready for that yet.

    A Poly PM by 2035! Australia is ready.
    _____________
    Can’t wait until pollies list their fetishes on campaign flyers.

    2050 for sure. If man is still alive.

  34. Here we go again @ #679 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:59 pm

    Didn’t they give coverage to Rudd going to a strip show?

    And who, among the male contributors, has not been to a strip show?

    Do they still have them in Hindley Street?

    From memory, Rudd’s approval went up when it turned out he wasn’t entirely a nerd

  35. nath @ #683 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:31 pm

    Wat Tyler says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 4:59 pm

    nath @ #659 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:14 pm

    About the only impropriety in a marriage that would worry voters would probably be an open marriage People aren’t ready for that yet.

    A Poly PM by 2035! Australia is ready.
    _____________
    Can’t wait until pollies list their fetishes on campaign flyers.

    If a furry wins office, do they wear their costumes to work? What’s the protocol on that?

  36. “ Are you saying there are credible rumors which would threaten the outcome of the election …”

    Depends on what you define as ‘credible’. Look, the ‘Labor Death Tax’ scare campaign in 2019 wasn’t credible, when viewed objectively, was it? Nowhere near close to being so, and yet it was palpably effective, wasn’t it?

    Albo is no saint. He’s led a human life. So despite him being a good man, that doesn’t necessarily matter when up against a political machine that is well versed and practiced in the dark arts, does it?

    In my view it doesnt even matter that such a dirt campaign may expose them for being massive hypocrites – what with Barnaby, Tudge, Porter and Brittany: after-all, all of their political campaigns are marketing scams. They also have the entire mainstream media at their disposal as auxiliaries to promote the scam. So, IMO, of course Hirsty can make this work. … BUT … it could also blow up spectacularly. It’s all about risk management and if they are well behind on points going into the championship round then anything is possible, isnt it?

  37. Wat Tyler says:

    If a furry wins office, do they wear their costumes to work? What’s the protocol on that?
    ________
    I think on a Friday it would be cool, but not if there are foreign dignitaries in attendance.

  38. “ From memory, Rudd’s approval went up when it turned out he wasn’t entirely a nerd”

    Lol, Indeed

  39. Pi

    The real question isn’t whether Frydenberg could win at the state level, it’s why he’d do that at all. Why would he trade heir apparent to the PM for likely state opposition? If he wants to be in politics it will be in a safer federal seat.

  40. Interestingly enough, the TV show Billions dealt with this very issue. A character running for State Attorney of New York was outed as a submissive who frequented dungeons. He admitted it, said it was being used against him. Got elected.

    And because it was a public humiliation. Probably erected.

  41. Commentariat Uprising: “Why would he trade heir apparent to the PM for likely state opposition? ”

    If the ALP win big federally it’s going to be much harder for Andrews to win. I still think he IS going to win, but it’s going to be much harder if the ALP is in power federally. Writing off the LNP when an ALP state gov has been in power for as long as they have would be foolhardy. Whoever is leading the libs in Vic at the election, it will be a lot closer than it was last time.

  42. Wat Tyler @ #681 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:04 pm

    nath @ #683 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:31 pm

    Wat Tyler says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 4:59 pm

    nath @ #659 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 4:14 pm

    About the only impropriety in a marriage that would worry voters would probably be an open marriage People aren’t ready for that yet.

    A Poly PM by 2035! Australia is ready.
    _____________
    Can’t wait until pollies list their fetishes on campaign flyers.

    If a furry wins office, do they wear their costumes to work? What’s the protocol on that?

    I’m sure Katherine Deves has an answer for you. 😉

  43. I agree David about Latham. He could have become one of the great Labor PMs. He was a natural born torie hunter who had some keatingesk mongrel in him, always up for a fist fight and maintaining the rage 24/4. He could be witty at the dispatch box and he carried an air of confidence and authority.

    He was a throw back to Calwell days when the party knew who it represented and understood it’s purpose.

    Nobody could have predicted him ending up as the NSW ONP leader and Pauline’s chief political brains trust – but hey I guess they can’t accuse him of being unoriginal lol. And by all accounts he makes every parliamentary Committee and budget estimates hearing a drawn out living hell for the NSW government so kudos to him

  45. nath @ #686 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:12 pm

    Interestingly enough, the TV show Billions dealt with this very issue. The race for State Attorney of New York was outed as a submissive who frequented dungeons. He admitted it, said it was being used against him. Got elected.

    With massive support from the electorate. But New Yorkers hate to be on the wrong side of the latest trends. 🙂

  46. I’m sure Katherine Deves has an answer for you.
    leftieBrawler says:
    Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:13 pm

    I agree David about Latham. He could given even one of the great Labor PMs. He was a natural born torie hunter who had some keatingesk mongrel in him, always up for a fist fight.
    _______________
    Keating never had a fight in his life. This street fighter stuff is ott. He had a sharp tongue, with some great lines.

  47. What are the family circumstances of Tudge, so wife and children including the age(s) of any children?

    And are there Family Court of Australia proceedings involving Tudge?

    If not Custody proceedings, then Orders pertaining to property and property division (noting, from first hand experience, Property Orders give significant advantage to the custodial parent, be that female or male).

    Because that is the normal course of events, including that Consent Orders can be accepted by the Court.

    Sometimes these matters are settled amicably, sometimes not.

  48. Key moderate Liberal MPs have signalled they would again cross the floor to vote to abolish the right of faith schools to discriminate against LGBTQ students, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison defended his plan to pursue a Religious Discrimination Act before legislating any student safeguards.

    Liberal MPs Katie Allen, Bridget Archer, Trent Zimmerman and Dave Sharma doubled down on their position after Morrison said there was no evidence gay students were being expelled from faith schools because of their sexuality, and said a re-elected Coalition government would deal with the issues “sequentially”, prioritising the religious bill first.

  49. Andrew_Earlwood @ #682 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:05 pm

    “ Are you saying there are credible rumors which would threaten the outcome of the election …”

    Depends on what you define as ‘credible’. Look, the ‘Labor Death Tax’ scare campaign in 2019 wasn’t credible, when viewed objectively, was it? Nowhere near close to being so, and yet it was palpably effective, wasn’t it?

    Albo is no saint. He’s led a human life. So despite him being a good man, that doesn’t necessarily matter when up against a political machine that is well versed and practiced in the dark arts, does it?

    In my view it doesnt even matter that such a dirt campaign may expose them for being massive hypocrites – what with Barnaby, Tudge, Porter and Brittany: after-all, all of their political campaigns are marketing scams. They also have the entire mainstream media at their disposal as auxiliaries to promote the scam. So, IMO, of course Hirsty can make this work. … BUT … it could also blow up spectacularly. It’s all about risk management and if they are well behind on points going into the championship round then anything is possible, isnt it?

    Exactly. Do they really want to stir the embers of Brittany Higgins, the Prayer Room, the wank desks etc up?

  50. and said a re-elected Coalition government would deal with the issues “sequentially”, prioritising the religious bill first

    Putting off the sequential bit to the 12th of never.

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