I hesitate to read federal implications into yesterday’s Tasmanian Legislative Council elections, but it may at very least be a sign of the times that Labor and Liberal candidates couldn’t muster half of the vote between them in the by-election for Huon, which encompasses about a third of the federal seat of Franklin. For those of you who are interested (not many, it seems), I will continue to follow the count in the dedicated post in the days to come, in which either Labor or the independent will win the seat depending on how preferences flows. Two other seats, Elwick and McIntyre, were comfortably retained by their respective Labor and independent incumbents.
More directly of relevance:
• The Guardian reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 shows independent Sophie Scamps with a 60-40 lead over Liberal member Jason Falinksi in Mackellar. The primary votes are Falinski 32.0%, Scamps 31.2%, Labor 15.5% and Greens 8.6% with 7% undecided, and a respondent-allocated preference flow of 81-19 in favour of Scamps. The automated phone poll was conducted last week from a sample of 834.
• Countering much of the recent horse race narrative, The Australian reports strategists on both sides say support for the Coalition has fallen away in Queensland. While Brisbane is “the most vulnerable”, Leichhardt, Longman and perhaps also Flynn are “in play”. Ryan is “in danger” from the Greens, and while the same might also be held of Labor-held Griffith, “a Labor strategist said he believed Griffith would hold”. However, a Liberal National Party source’s claim that Labor “has been claiming for the last three elections that they were going to pick up another eight to ten seats and it doesn’t eventuate” is only slightly exaggerated.
• John Ferguson of The Australian adds to a recent chorus of reportage to the effect that Victoria’s lockdowns “will hit hard in pockets across Melbourne’s outer suburbs”, endangering Labor’s hold on McEwen and Corangamite. This time may well be different, but I can’t help noting that the news media doesn’t have a good record of reading Melbourne’s pulse in recent years. After similar suggestions of a threat to Labor in McEwen in 2016 due to a controversy over the Andrews government’s handling of the Country Fire Authority, the seat swung to Labor by 7.7%. Efforts by the Liberal Party and the Herald Sun to promote African gang crime as the defining issue of the 2018 state election fell on the deafest of ears, and after much talk that the “Skyrail” issue would weaken the Andrews goverment’s hold on the crucial sandbelt seats of Melbourne’s south-east, every single one of them recorded a double-digit swing to Labor.
• A report in today’s Age/Herald papers says Liberal MPs are being told not to encourage people to vote early, as they expect, or at least hope, for a late break in their favour. The report also says Labor now is “more hopeful” that Bennelong and Leichhardt are trending its way, but that both sides now expect Dunkley, Lilley, Hunter and Paterson to remain with Labor, and Hasluck, Flynn and Longman to remain with the Coalition.
“AEC seeking information on unauthorised signage”
https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2022/05-08b.htm
The Herald Sun threw every bit of dirt they could find at Dan before the 2018 Victorian election, and he smashed the Libs.
I think many people have already made up their mind. Good luck on a predictable dirt file. I think it’ll fall flat. 13 days and counting before (hopefully) we’re rid of Morrison and his band of gormless mouthbreathers.
“Latham likely has more credibility than Albo”
On Planet Freya.
On Planet Earth, not so much.
Rats in the Ranks relates to Labor Tamany Hall local government in Sydney’s inner west 30 years ago.
Preceded the Cook preselection Morrison where Morrison shafted Towke by 10 years.
The Young (and not so young) Libs may have gone too early on the dark ops against the Teals…
The Australian Electoral Commission has asked a special taskforce to investigate who put up hundreds of fake political signs in blue-ribbon seasons in Liberal electorates.
In a statement released on Sunday the AEC said the signs where in breach of federal law as they do not contain an authorisation statement which ensures voters “know who is communicating with them”.
Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers said the breach of electoral laws must be investigated.
“This is a very serious matter and we are exploring all avenues possible to get to the source of the signage,” Mr Rogers said.
The matter has now been referred to the Electoral Integrity Assurance Taskforce to determine the source.
The AEC is also seeking information “directly from relevant entities” and encouraged members by the public to come forward.
I actually smell ScoMo’s hand in this – as it is ham-fisted, and has generated the Streisand Effect
Do you think Labor is banking on an increasingly rabid media during the campaign to soften folks up for officially announcing a media royal commission in the last weeks?
Shift of tone toward the press pack could be a signal, and something to respond to a ‘dirt file’ with.
So far, we have one person on the PB saying Andrew Clenelle on Sky, and Probyn on Insiders, were talking about a dirt file. But we have no one else on twitter talking about these quotes. No links, no clips (only ones I could find don’t have either saying this), nothing else. We do already have people on twitter who have picked up and repeated the claim made on this blog.
sprocket
Those corflutes looks pretty professional – someone would know where they were done
The view from the London cabbie ranks .. skip to 1:28 for the money quote 🙂
https://twitter.com/g_gosden/status/1522993238503739393
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 1:35 pm
max says:
“You’d think that the ALP … would have its own trebuchets loaded with muddy projectiles ready to fire …”
Tourism Australia
Tourism NZ
Towke
QAnon
Hillschlong
______________________________________________
The taxpayers gave a woman $500,000 because Tudge did nothing wrong. If it wasn’t Tudge, who is the sitting LNP minister?
The outgoing health minister gave a $1 billion PPE contract to an LNO connected company with no record in the field.
$400,000,000 to save the reef to a seaside shack with LNP connections.
Kaboom!
The “deves masterstroke” is just so fetch.
I don’t know jt1983 – I just reported what Latham had said at the time.
I think the consensus of many people at the time was plibersek was the best bet.
We will know the truth all round in 13 more sleeps !
This dirt file chatter is giving me a good chuckle. If it was anything substantial it would be out by now, people are voting tomorrow and the libs are clearly worried if Morrison’s telling his MPs to dissuade people from voting early
Upnorth @ #472 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 1:29 pm
But will Labor fight fire with fire and use it?
Pi @ #509 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 2:02 pm
It’s some sort of stroke, to be sure. 😐
Dirt file does sound desperate but who knows? It sounds like a last shot in the locker move.
Watching the Clennell piece, all he says – quoting Hirst – is ‘things will get better closer to polling day’.
Undecideds will focus on the stronger economy message, forgive ScoMo for his failure, and return to the Blue column.
No mention of ‘dirt’.
Probyn in the other hand, said ‘get ready for a massive spend on negative advertising in the last 2 weeks’
No mention of dirt.
We should clear this up right now – up north can ring his internal alp sources from Bangkok ( you know the ones who brief him On internal polling) and find out what’s the substance to this dirt file story.
Pi @ Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 2:02 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pubd-spHN-0
Yes, the lawn is small. I am always congratulating my self at times like these for being too poor to buy something larger 🙂
Claiming to have major dirt to turn the campaign could be more about encouraging Coalition MPs and parts of the MSM to stick with party messaging even as things look more and more dire in several important seats.
Sometimes I think Freya Stark is just trying to slip us the hint that her account is satire. Latham credibility. Classic.
@Griff: not having been down Monash way in a bit this is the first I’ve seen of Deb Leonard running, it is the Deb Leonard I knew after a quick Google, I’m happy to endorse her for what good it would do!
And for those who haven’t seen this 1996 classic, Rats in the Ranks.
A fly on the wall expose of inner west local government politics in Sydney…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12xM94v3Wt0
Seems like a lot of wishful thinking from the libs sprocket re undecided voters.
I dont know what is in the dirt file ,perhaps old videos of Albo supporting higher taxes ,etc.
I wouldnt be surprised if Latham was involved in helping put together the dirt file.
All I know is the focus of wall to wall Liberal party ads in the last week will be personal attacks on Albo .
Perhaps these Liberal dirt file ads are a last act of desperation and will be as useless as Hitlers “Wonder V1 V2 Weapons” he was hoping would win the war in 1945.
So, Lars is waiting for dirt on Albanese, that Latham has, to drop before the election. There are more than a couple of assumptions in that scenario. Off the top of my head:
1. Latham has dirt on Albanese
2. Latham has kept stumm all these years
3. Latham gives it to the Liberal Party now
Lars/Edwina/Edward – I am not sure Latham will be your White Knight. But hope away 🙂
Freya,
BB needs your credit card details. Apparently your PB posts have won a prize.
Thanks for the assistance
The important point about Latham is he made the comment about dirt on Albo 3 years ago.
He didn’t have a self interested motivation to make the comment in May 2019 .
As a former party leader he would have been party to all the dirt on alp front benchers (including Albo) so he would know.
Regardless of what’s in a hypothetical dirt file, there’s no point running one now with how biased the MSM have been this campaign. You’ve already polarized the audience, you’ve already run with fake news, there are no undecideds to expose it to. They’re on with this Dan Andrews corruption thing atm, which even if he’s provably dodgy (would be very surprising if a Vic Prem wasn’t dodgy) has no chance of catching on with anyone who doesn’t already hate him because of the ridiculous things they’ve tried to pin on him before.
Also a tangential thing, but I feel like we could lessen propaganda exposure by extracting sport coverage from the hostage situation is it with the corporate news and gambling industry. We need a state-run Pravda but only for the cricket scores.
Arky @Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 2:14 pm
“@Griff: not having been down Monash way in a bit this is the first I’ve seen of Deb Leonard running, it is the Deb Leonard I knew after a quick Google, I’m happy to endorse her for what good it would do!”
Monash is not my neck of the woods. But good to see a Teal independent running against Broadbent though.
Latham has written all of these books and from what I heard he let it all hang out, surely there would have been some hints of Albos dirty deeds. I would have thought the NSW right was more the home of dirty deeds( done dirt cheap) than the left. And surely any connection to one of those characters in front of the ICAC would have seen the light by now. As I mentioned before Kevin 07 copped this WTF Heiner thingo which was absolute BS, Alan Jones went blue in the face trying to drum up a lynch mob but didn’t get any takers.
“He didn’t have a self interested motivation to make the comment in May 2019 .”
Latham wants attention and he wants the entire Labor Left to die horribly.
I struggle to see the author of the Latham diaries and serial party hopper holding back on Albo dirt he could have made money and attention from earlier.
“Deves Masterstroke gambit” lol
A hail Mary but he has Dog on his side,and is a certified genius as he has reminded us many times.
Like the Coal Juggling, or his interventions in Hughes it reveals his ugly hard right ratbag self. The pawns are sacrificed to a happy clapper takeover of the Liberal party that renders it unelectable
Labor don’t need a dirt file on Morrison.
His decision to go ahead with a “religious discrimination bill” whilst not protecting students and teachers rights will play up big in the next few days. It’ll remind people who he really is.
If a dirt file is needed, Labor just need to play Macron, Turnbull, Sogavare quotes/video.
Edit: and then there is Barnaby.
And Malcolm, please tell us how you know about the ads.
I think you are speaking from your rear end.
Isn’t it ironic, in 2007, when all the moderate liberals such as Hewson, Peacock, Kay Patterson, etc were gone, Howard was still PM.
Isn’t it ironic, in 2022, when Rudd, Gillard, Swan, Crean, Beazley and that entire generation are all gone, Latham is still an influential MP.
@subgeometer
Unelectable? Tony Abbott was considered “unelectable”. So was Donald Trump.
Guess what? They got elected. And may do again!
Believing a word that Mark Latham says is your first problem
Deves is a masterstroke, they’ve created a Fox News “exiled from my country for standing up to the trans agenda” Talking Head from scratch in record time.
Trump lost and Abbott would have too.
It’s really time to cut the performance art bullshit.
I hate feeding it – but some are a little too influenced by what it posts – hence why it keeps coming back – a bad faith troll feeding off peoples fear.
Freya Stark @ Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 2:25 pm
No, it is a coincidence Alanis.
While I am at it, how good are those Stage 3 tax cuts? I forget, you mentioned that you that were going to receive them just over a week ago? But then you are not working now and it was your niece? So confusing to keep all the details straight 😉
You would wonder why the Libs would allow Morrison and his right wing religious loons take over after they saw what happened to their mates in the Cave who did exactly the same thing.
So Freya, what seat is Abbott running in? I must have missed that part of this election? Or is Abbott really Katherine Deves in drag?
BoJo won.
Xenu @ Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 2:27 pm
“Believing a word that Mark Latham says is your first problem”
Another assumption!
Oh the possibilities! Latham dishes out confected dirt that winds up as mud on Morrison’s face. That wouldn’t happen, would it? 🙂
@Lynch – I doubt Abbott’s drag skills are that good.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 2:12 pm
We should clear this up right now – up north can ring his internal alp sources from Bangkok ( you know the ones who brief him On internal polling) and find out what’s the substance to this dirt file story.
中华人民共和国
Good sir, being a 50+ year old male, I paid more attention to the Turd I did this morning than you.
Latham has a pretty good gig these days doesn’t he?!. Prancing around the great never ending junket that is the legislative council, the acceptable talking head darling of the Murdoch press where he gets to preach to the converted several times a week and to top it off an extremely generous pre 1998 federal parliamentary pension.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 2:06 pm
Upnorth @ #472 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 1:29 pm
Dirt is best dished in the last 48 hours so the opponent has no time to respond. There is dirt on SfM and Co.
But will Labor fight fire with fire and use it?
中华人民共和国
We ain’t going to die not knowing this time C@t
I reckon parachuting Tony Abbott into Lilley to replace Vivian Lobo would be a good move. With the promise of a ministry if he wins for a start.
“Freya Starksays:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 2:37 pm
I reckon parachuting Tony Abbott into Lilley to replace Vivian Lobo would be a good move. With the promise of a ministry if he wins for a start.”
And if you weren’t a fucking moron you’d know that it is too late for that