The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged from 53-47 a week ago, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady) and One Nation 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 38% and down one to 50%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 44-37 to 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.
Also out this evening is the second Ipsos poll for the Financial Review finds no improvement in the Coalition’s position since its post-budget poll, continuing to credit Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45 based on 2019 preference flows after exclusion of the 8% undecided (otherwise Labor 50 and Coalition 42). Ipsos provides a further two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences that includes those undecided on either primary vote and preference choice as a separate component: this has Labor steady on 48%, the Coalition up one to 38% and undecided down one to 14%. After excluding 9% unaccounted for (7% undecided plus 2% not enrolled – the latter is no longer featured, perhaps reflecting the close of the rolls) in the previous poll and 8% for the current one, the primary votes have the Coalition up 0.7% to 34.8%, Labor down 1.5% to 37.0%, the Greens up 2.1% to 13.0%, One Nation steady at 4.3% and the United Australia Party up 1.1% to 3.3%.
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, his approval up one to 34% and disapproval steady at 48%. Anthony Albanese suffers little damage from his early campaign mishaps, with approval up one to 31% and disapproval up three to 35%. He maintains a lead as preferred prime minister of 40-38, out from 38-37. The pollster’s gender gaps remain substantial, with the Coalition’s primary vote six points lower among women than men, Labor’s two points lower and the Greens’ five point higher, respectively compared with three points, seven points and four points last time. Scott Morrison’s net approval rating is minus six among men, down from minus eight, and minus 19 among women, down from minus 22. Anthony Albanese also does worse among women (minus six net approval) than men (minus one). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a large sample of 2302.
jan,
It’s still a Milo Minderbender of a novel.
So Matt Canavan says net zero is dead? I think the LNP have sealed the deal in abandoning their long taken for granted moderates and will probably lose 5 teal seats, just have given more reason to show they will not follow through on any promise on the environment and the Nats are not even bothering to hide that to maintain the facade of government unity. The LNP are giving off strong Titanic vibes atm.
“Nats are not even bothering to hide that to maintain the facade of government unity.”
Wonder how that will go down in negotiating the next coalition agreement in opposition?? 🙂
Morrisons Coalition has hit the iceberg and Canavan reveals its every man for himself and damn the women and children.
nath says:
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:47 pm
Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:44 pm
nath,
I’ve got you babe!
________
That’s a song from the 60s. Which was the last time you updated your wardrobe.
================
I didn’t know GG lived in Queensland
Coalition
WeWantPaul @ #1417 Tuesday, April 26th, 2022 – 9:34 pm
The statement quite plainly says she lied. I don’t think that’s beating around the bush
A fresh statement from the charity said Ms Hayes had been stood down “following the distribution of political materials that included comments from the CEO purporting to be on behalf of Guide Dogs Victoria and publicly endorsing a political candidate”.
@upnorth I don’t think you need a wardrobe up here. T-shirt and shorts is all you appear to need.
FTR – we’re still quite a way out… so I’m certainly not popping anything yet.
HOWEVER, I think Labor’s wonky start did two things:
1. Shielded the Govt from the consequences a pretty bad first week, but just not as bad as Labor’s
2. Put questions around Albo and set up the CPG narrative Labor needed to publicly recover from (now – I think the private polling and the drivers behind the parties probably didn’t really change all that much – but it gave the Libs an opening).
I do have my view on where this is headed, nothing has really changed… but, the total lack of discipline from the Coalition over the last 3-4 days is incredibly telling.
GG, I was thinking of you this morning when trying to find a book to read as, with covid fog, I though Kinky would be the goer. But I realised it has been ‘borrowed’.
So I am leaning on the local bookshop owner to deliver me Fitzsimons new book tomoz morning.
There’s no reason for any cockiness on the part of Labor supporters. Queenslanders didn’t suddenly become more intelligent in the last 3 years. They betrayed the country at the last election and are just as likely to do it again. I’ll have a quiet drink on election night if Labor win but they were ahead last time in the polls and got smashed by Queensland. I don’t see how anything has changed there.
If there’s any Bonner bludgers in the blog, do you’s think Tabatha Young can actually win bonner with this state poll for QLD?
Guykb at 9:59 pm
Don’t forget the thongs for going out and formal occasions.
Cady reminds me of a young gun slinger that wanders into the saloon bar, draws their pistols and shoots old Joe the resident barflys leg just for looking up so can make a name for themself quickly.
Cady doesn’t realise that old Joe has skin in the game and actually has a hollow wooden leg full of bootleg rum stolen from the bar owner which spurts everywhere.
Now the sheriff ain’t happy because Cady has come and dang wrecked his Tuesday night card game. So handcuffs Cady to the chair and tells old Joe to quit whineing over the rum and the publican to get back to serving.
See Cady lots of folk have skin in the game they just don’t yap their traps off about it before they say hello.
It’s interesting to note that the Global Heating recalcitrants in the Coalition seem to have been fed a line which I’ve noticed here as well. That is, ‘Germany is building new Coal and Gas power plants. India is too. China hasn’t stopped. So are other countries. So why should we no longer build them?’ And then the old chestnut is brought out… ‘We don’t contribute much to the global emissions anyway.’
This line of reasoning is criminally negligent. It’s probably a line coming from the same fossil fuel lobbyists that started the disinformation campaign in the first place.
QLD are backward nutters federally.
Bonner is on a margin of 7.4%.. if it falls then the lnp are going to lose a swag of seats.
steve davis says:
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 10:04 pm
QLD are backward nutters federally.
_______
They certainly have their issues, especially with fluoridation, but in the SSM plebiscite they recorded a stronger YES vote than NSW. Which is not nothing.
Slightly disappointed there was no Essential and Morgan to add to Morrison’s stress today.
Then again, another bitter pill in the next few days, followed by another Newspoll on Sunday night would keep the momentum for change happening and send his anxiety through the roof, and though I normally would shy away from schadenfreude … he is one man that brings out my internal sadist.
Des Devlin
“ There’s no reason for any cockiness on the part of Labor supporters. Queenslanders didn’t suddenly become more intelligent in the last 3 years. They betrayed the country at the last election and are just as likely to do it again. I’ll have a quiet drink on election night if Labor win but they were ahead last time in the polls and got smashed by Queensland. I don’t see how anything has changed there.”
At least it’s unlikely to get worse up here so there’s at least the hope of gaining 1-2 seats.
jan,
Anything by the recently departed P J O’Rourke would set your mind on fire.
I’m currently re-reading his stuff from the early 90s.
I will look for his more recent stuff after thAT,
Queensland is a conservative backwater and a cultural wasteland, even Brisbane is a hillbilly big country town compared to any other Western city of its size. Lived there for 2 years and don’t have any intention of returning. I don’t expect there to be any swing there this election in Labor’s direction. It is the Alberta, the Alabama, the Le-Penia of the Tropics.
I must say, the plight of the Bilo family garners lots of support.
This morning after watching KK on abc morning show I posted:
KKeneally just confirmed on ABC that Mugurappan family will be returned to Bilo if Labor gains govt. She will be incoming Immigration Minister. #auspol #Election2022
So far 160+ replies; 1500 retweets and 5800 likes!!!
Thems big numbers for anything I post!!
“@upnorth I don’t think you need a wardrobe up here. T-shirt and shorts is all you appear to need”
Appropriate that footwear was not mentioned.
Steve777 – 923 pm
Yes I sometimes ponder what would have happened if there had been boats filled with white Christians fleeing war and persecution – perhaps Ukrainians?
@nath
NSW has a lot more socially conservative migrants so that explains the figure there. There was a swathe of seats in Western Sydney that voted overwhelmingly no.
QLD seems to have a lot more regional seats reliant on mining and agriculture, so that helps the federal LNP traditionally. Brisbane is pretty much like any other Oz city. Both major parties are wedged on environmental issues now so will be interesting to see how that influences voters. Could see a higher UAP/PHON vote in regional QLD perhaps and movement to the Greens in inner Brisbane?
QLD did have a lot of issues in 2019 as a perfect storm against the ALP – but we ABSOLUTELY cannot rely on QLD.
But… we all know QLD swings and can swing hard – often they exaggerate national swings.
Queensland recorded a higher vote on marriage equality than NSW only because the latter have so many Asian immigrants (whose origins range as widely as Beirut to Beijing) who are socially ultra-conservative.
If you only polled whites, Queensland would almost certainly have a lower “yes” vote than NSW.
Tom at 9.47pm
A longer sketch (apologies for out-of-sync sound), in which Leo Wanker claims to have surpassed his father, the great Jack Wanker, in laying claim to the title ‘Greatest Wanker of All Time’…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT8VjRzgBXY
Something about the Leo Wanker character appeals to me. Is it the brazenness of his name, the constantly-crooked elbows, or that almost every sketch ends with someone needing to spray him with a fire extinguisher…?
@Jen do/did you have a relative called Pat?
Canavan ignores the captain’s orders and casts the climate change canon overboard, signalling to his shipmates that is every man for himself.
The Guide Dogs charity has suspended their CEO, who seems to have breached the charity guidelines, thereby threatening the charity’s status (as a charity). By acting promptly, the charity has likely preserved its status (the guidelines permit prompt rectification). Withdrawal of support is precipitate, to say the least – what are they supposed to have done?
I remember on my travels around Australia in my van going to a pub in a Queensland town. The sign on the door said “minimum dress thongs and a singlet”. So yes , foot wear was mentioned.
E G,
Thanks Josh!
Jan
Fantastic to hear you are on the mend. And yes unvaccinated people very often go downhill 5-7 days into the illness (as do some vaccinated as well) so hopefully you have avoided that. We are losing count of the number of people we know who have had it, including sadly several deaths.
Nup, no Pats in my family — why do you ask?
nath:
Annoy GG too much and he’ll fast forward to Bringing Sexy Back!
Guykb, poroti
The standing joke in Darwin were the signs “No singlets, No thongs” at entrances to pubs and clubs – did it mean you should remove them and go in bare chested and barefoot?
Mogotrone at 10.23pm
No minimum clothing requirement beyond singlet? Interesting pub…
Was that a trick question guykb?
On betfair greens Showing 1.14. Lnp 1.5 For Higgins
I got the greens the other day $6.40
Saw my first Liberal TV ad out in the wild today (not a broadcast TV viewer, so I rarely see them.)
It was… extremely weak. It was just some history lesson about every Labor Government allegedly being bad for the economy. Reminiscent of similar ads that aired during the 2007 election. The “Life won’t be easy under Albanese” (or whatever it was) catchphrase at the end didn’t sound clever or catchy, to be frank. It just sounded cheesy and forced.
Obviously one ad doesn’t determine the outcome of the election but they need to do better than that.
Rocket,
I’m living with this at the moment.
Triple vaxxed but have caught the plague.
Did my iso. But have been unwell ever since. Finally, got back to work properly 10 days ago. Today, I have sniffles and simply had to go back to bed for a couple of hours in mid afternoon.
malcolm, King OMalley
There is a great French expression that sums it up
“Sauve qui peut!”
Literally “Save yourself if you can” – like ‘every man for himself’ – to be shouted as the ship is sinking and there is no way to get to lifeboats etc.
As some have predicted – this is now the Nationals’ plan. They figure Morrison is gone so they should now just defend their turf. Soon to be followed by some Liberals under the gun from “Teal” independents – they will come out saying they NEVER agreed with anything their party has done recently, and the voters should keep them in Parliament to be the voice of reason in their soon to be decimated party.
Oh there was a Pat with the same surname as you, former Mayor of Wagga – a great guy and former Labor candidate for the seat of Riverina – I worked on his campaign in 1993. He achieved an amazing result but sadly not enough to take the seat. RIP.
Quite some time ago I saw a sign at some venue “Collar and socks must be worn”. Always wondered if some wag ever appeared wearing just those two items.
…‘We don’t contribute much to the global emissions anyway.’
It’s the line the Right always trots out. We’re so unimportant, our impact is so minor, so why bother? Anyway China, India…
One counter is that in emissions we punch above our weight by over four to one: 0.3% of the world’s population and 1.3% of the greenhouse emissions.
Another counter might be a parallel with tax: my contribution to revenue is so minor so I should save the ATO the trouble and not bother submitting a tax return. Somehow, I don’t think that would go down well.
But let’s do a thought experiment. Russia, heaven forbid, attacks one (or all) of the Baltic Republics. They are NATO allies, so the USA is treaty-bound to intervene. I expect that under Biden or any future President (as long as it’s not Trump), they will. Three nanoseconds later, if the Coalition is in power, Australia is committed. If Labor is in power, it might take a bit longer. In either case, the Right will cheer, they’ll have no reservations. In fact, I would (reluctantly, with trepidation for the young) support the decision. Of course, China and India and other nations outside NATO with huge militaries won’t intervene.
But isn’t our contribution too miniscule? Won’t it cost a fortune? Won’t tax have to go up? Won’t there be shortages and economic distress? What about China and India and… Why would we bother?
But it’s war, and right-wingers love war. And of course there’ll be lucrative contracts to go around. The wealthy will keep safe. If we could defeat Global Heating with guns and bombs, the Right would be in like Flynn.
Wat Tyler:
Malcom Fraser’s catchphrase was “Life wasn’t meant to be easy”, so I suppose it should be:
“Life wasn’t meant to be easy under Albanese”
As Jimmy Hoffa may have said: they got the words, but they ain’t got the music!
@Wat Tyler
I’ve been thinking the same, the ads so far don’t really capture your attention, a few meh tidbits of info with an Albo weathervane swinging around that distracts you from actually listening to what’s being said and then the lame slogan to round it out.
Their ads back in 2019 were a lot more memorable “The Bill you can’t afford”, Shorten must be cursing his parents choice of first name.