The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged from 53-47 a week ago, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady) and One Nation 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 38% and down one to 50%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 44-37 to 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.
Also out this evening is the second Ipsos poll for the Financial Review finds no improvement in the Coalition’s position since its post-budget poll, continuing to credit Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45 based on 2019 preference flows after exclusion of the 8% undecided (otherwise Labor 50 and Coalition 42). Ipsos provides a further two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences that includes those undecided on either primary vote and preference choice as a separate component: this has Labor steady on 48%, the Coalition up one to 38% and undecided down one to 14%. After excluding 9% unaccounted for (7% undecided plus 2% not enrolled – the latter is no longer featured, perhaps reflecting the close of the rolls) in the previous poll and 8% for the current one, the primary votes have the Coalition up 0.7% to 34.8%, Labor down 1.5% to 37.0%, the Greens up 2.1% to 13.0%, One Nation steady at 4.3% and the United Australia Party up 1.1% to 3.3%.
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, his approval up one to 34% and disapproval steady at 48%. Anthony Albanese suffers little damage from his early campaign mishaps, with approval up one to 31% and disapproval up three to 35%. He maintains a lead as preferred prime minister of 40-38, out from 38-37. The pollster’s gender gaps remain substantial, with the Coalition’s primary vote six points lower among women than men, Labor’s two points lower and the Greens’ five point higher, respectively compared with three points, seven points and four points last time. Scott Morrison’s net approval rating is minus six among men, down from minus eight, and minus 19 among women, down from minus 22. Anthony Albanese also does worse among women (minus six net approval) than men (minus one). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a large sample of 2302.
Hopefully the media will accept now that the cricket bats ARE out for the Liberals and that people have been waiting since, I dunno, the global-warming-worsened bushfires that saw Australians huddled on beaches as embers drifted down on them while Morrison went on holiday overseas.
It gives us a good sign that Labor will get a bounce back in tonights Newspoll
It will be interesting to see if there is any “herding”, as the parlance goes these days, with Newspoll. You can bet you bottom dollar that if Newspoll looks better than Ipsos, the Newspoll contribution will get the most attention from the conservative side of the media…..viz the West newspaper tomorrow……
Kenny report on sky news sneak peek on Newspoll – ‘not a lot of change’ …
@Taran, you would think so at least in the PPM department, since Albo had the shocking first week but seems to have increased his lead by 2% and the previous poll results were released before the campaign begun.
Who do you reckon won week 2 ? 🙂
It will be interesting to see if there is any “herding” ,as the parlance goes these days, with Newspoll. You can bet you bottom dollar that if Newspoll looks better than Ipsos, the Newspoll contribution will get the most attention from the conservative side of the media…..
If the lib/nats combined primary vote around 34.5% on federal election day that is 7.0% swing against them
Comfortable Labor majority
Confessions
Re your pic from previous blog. SfM’s hair , what happened to the ‘miraculous’ revival of it in recent month, hair plugs fall out ? I guess that is what happens when your personal photographer isn’t taking the pics 🙂
One wonders if the “Albanese Gaffe” will now become part of folklore in election campaigns? The end is yet to be determined, but if Albanese gets up and wins, the hysterical comments from the conservative media and there so-called political journalists might go down similar to the US paper who gave the presidency to Dewey – on the front page – in 1949 was it? Anyway, long before my day……..
Ipsos tables..
G’day lads and ladies.
55-45, oh yeah, this Labor bloke will take that, despite the obvious desperation of the Morrison media spruikers like Coorey.
Gee, where is everybody? Still over on the other page?
Paywalled, but apparently missing the Liberal party logo.
And no mention of Scott Morrison. 😀
poroti:
You mean when your personal photoshopper isn’t able to do some touch ups prior to publishing!
Morrison doing an Elvis impersonation singing, “I’ve lost you, yes I’ve lost you. I can’t reach you any more”, on these numbers.
I would be suprised for Labor to have a two party preferred vote of 55%. And only have a primary vote of 36.6% on the night of the election.
Interesting too, is quite a large sample in the Ipsos….Not a situation of three groups of 5 people from a week or two ago…….
Is anyone else starting to wonder how sick Albo is? And how that might play out?
His voice is croaky at the best of times. I know I struggled to talk properly for a while post COVID… Hope he’s okay.
I would be happy witha 54:46 on election day. Maybe having albo throw a week long sickie was all that was needed.
I look forward to PK and FK’s confusion as The Gaffe, and their breathless reporting of it, didn’t seem to shake voters.
So Tricot – how can a party supported by 3.2 out of 10 voters form government, but one with 3.4 out of 10 voters is perfectly fine?
Even Margaret Thatcher got 4 out of 10 with first past the post.
It’s time, time for proportional representation!
The female vote is disappearing faster than ScoMo’s pot belly according to these numbers.
So what does he do today? Pulling beers for the boys in the front bar and kicking off a 2UP game in Darwin. Will resonate with the laydeeezzz…
Well just perhaps the nongs:
Shouldn’t have closed down radio Australia.
Shouldn’t have reduced aid spending.
Should have taken rising sea levels more seriously.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/reality-of-our-time-dutton-warns-australians-to-prepare-for-war-20220425-p5afuy.html
My tips for Coalition seat losses: Swan, Pearce, Hasluck, Boothby, Bass or Braddon(maybe both), Chisholm, Goldstein, Longman, Brisbane, Flynn, Leichhardt, Reid, Robertson, North Sydney, Wentworth.
Possible bolters: Bennelong, Forde, Herbert, Hinkler, Sturt and Page
Confessions at 6:50 pm
There are also the angles the photo is taken, ‘vertical’ vs ‘horizontal’ through thinning locks makes a difference.
I’m sure Albo appreciates your concern JayC
Fun and games in Kooyong. The candidates’ debate is on the Wednesday yet Frydenberg is going to a Ch9 debate on the Thursday.
Scomo is so close to victory in that photo. Only needs to pour it over his scone to assure him the win.
[Holdenhillbilly says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:42 pm
Kenny report on sky news sneak peek on Newspoll – ‘not a lot of change’ …]
If true then will scomo and co be panic stations?
The under aged 40 conservative vote is shocking, in the low-mid 20’s first preference, at this rate the LNP are going the way of the dodo.
”
WB: After excluding the 7% undecided for the previous poll and 8% for the current one, the primary votes have the Coalition up 1.1% to 34.4%, Labor down the same amount to 36.6%, the Greens up 2.2% to 12.9% and others unchanged on 15.1%.
”
I don’t like that. I think the 2PP in Ipsos is pretty soft.
Also, I don’t believe Greens can get a PV of 13% in a change election.
Sprocket, I’m not stirring. Just would have expected some signs from him if he has a mild case. It took me near 2 weeks to fully recover. My kids were fine in 2 days.
Res Ipsos locitur?
I’m not hoping for a Labor win, I am hoping for a Liberal shellacking.
More Nationals-Teals than Liberals. They deserve it.
If Chris ‘Coalition’ Kenny says ‘not much movement’ in Newspoll, that means ALP 2PP anywhere from 53 to 99%!
OK, I made up the ‘Coalition’ middle name, but you know it makes sense!
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Lukesays:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:39 pm
Hopefully the media will accept now that the cricket bats ARE out for the Liberals and that people have been waiting since, I dunno, the global-warming-worsened bushfires that saw Australians huddled on beaches as embers drifted down on them while Morrison went on holiday overseas.
”
I don’t think what you posted is true.
Surely the missing Coalition 8-9% did not ALL end up in the undecided column?
Sprocket’s pigeon chest puffed out. He’s ready to strut!
Chris Kenny saying not much movement in Newspoll sounds like +1 to Labor to me.
Betting markets haven’t moved. It seems Newspoll is their god.
JayC, indeed it can be tough
But if Albo is off the campaign for another week or two, the focus will be more on on an ever desperate Morrison.
The more people see of him, the more they are reminded of how unfit he is to be Prime Minister of this country. And Labor’s 2nd tier spokesmen and women are excellent at reminding people exactly that.
Sad to see Lars deflated
Does anyone else think the 8% undecided was remarkably small for this stage of the campaign?
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Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:42 pm
Kenny report on sky news sneak peek on Newspoll – ‘not a lot of change’
”
But but but, Krogy said last night on ‘Sky after dark ‘that he heard that the gap narrowed.
Someone on Twitter said that Kenny reported Newspoll as having “not much change”.
Kroger could have got the wishful thinking from IPA Chair Janet Albrechtsen- over some pillow talk
”
Tricotsays:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:42 pm
It will be interesting to see if there is any “herding” ,as the parlance goes these days, with Newspoll. You can bet you bottom dollar that if Newspoll looks better than Ipsos, the Newspoll contribution will get the most attention from the conservative side of the media…..
”
Newspoll always gets more attention.
And mundo heart is racing. 🙂
I’ll take a 55-45, 3 weeks out from an election with an MOE of 2 2% any time!
But I thought the Fibs pulled a brilliant stunt on trans athletes bla bla!
Hopefully this demonstrates the quality of that sort of self-generated commentary.
And have journos yet worked out how unimpressed the public was with their infantile gaffe-focused coverage of the policy choices facing our nation?
Ven at 6.56pm
I agree. K Bonham’s 54.3 is more likely on the Ipsos primary numbers.
Only 1.07% better than Hawke in 1983!
Not gonna happen, but the polling is clearly different to 2019 and indicating a small swing to Labor on primaries and a much bigger swing on 2PP.
Also, indicating a continuing slow decline in major party primary vote share (74.7% at 2019 election, likely to be low 70s this time.)
sprocket_ @ #44 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 7:05 pm
They aren’t together anymore. From a few weeks ago:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/tony-abbott-felled-by-covid-19-but-held-aloft-at-st-john-s-20220410-p5ace3.html