Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

The latest Ipsos poll finds the Coalition yielding no measurable benefit from the first fortnight of the campaign, while Newspoll is effectively unchanged from a week agoi.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged from 53-47 a week ago, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady) and One Nation 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 38% and down one to 50%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 44-37 to 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.

Also out this evening is the second Ipsos poll for the Financial Review finds no improvement in the Coalition’s position since its post-budget poll, continuing to credit Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45 based on 2019 preference flows after exclusion of the 8% undecided (otherwise Labor 50 and Coalition 42). Ipsos provides a further two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences that includes those undecided on either primary vote and preference choice as a separate component: this has Labor steady on 48%, the Coalition up one to 38% and undecided down one to 14%. After excluding 9% unaccounted for (7% undecided plus 2% not enrolled – the latter is no longer featured, perhaps reflecting the close of the rolls) in the previous poll and 8% for the current one, the primary votes have the Coalition up 0.7% to 34.8%, Labor down 1.5% to 37.0%, the Greens up 2.1% to 13.0%, One Nation steady at 4.3% and the United Australia Party up 1.1% to 3.3%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, his approval up one to 34% and disapproval steady at 48%. Anthony Albanese suffers little damage from his early campaign mishaps, with approval up one to 31% and disapproval up three to 35%. He maintains a lead as preferred prime minister of 40-38, out from 38-37. The pollster’s gender gaps remain substantial, with the Coalition’s primary vote six points lower among women than men, Labor’s two points lower and the Greens’ five point higher, respectively compared with three points, seven points and four points last time. Scott Morrison’s net approval rating is minus six among men, down from minus eight, and minus 19 among women, down from minus 22. Anthony Albanese also does worse among women (minus six net approval) than men (minus one). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a large sample of 2302.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,559 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

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  1. Freya Stark @ #1542 Tuesday, April 26th, 2022 – 11:51 pm

    Snappy Tom – Howard was just the beginning. In the next generation there will be the ongoing Le-Penification of Australian society. Trumpist national-conservative governments based on a combination of the politics of fear and anti-wokeism combined with subsidies to big business and fossil fuels. Further persecution of minorities of ethnicity and gender. A dismantling of Medicare and further degradation of the higher education sector. And a return to family values.

    What a disgusting vision for the future.

  2. Barney in Tanjung Bunga

    What a disgusting vision for the future.
    That’s correct cobber. Even the French said “Non”

  3. Just a thought: the far right demagogues might lose a bit of their lustre if people didn’t treat them like magical unstoppable forces of nature with supernatural vote-whispering skills, despite reality kind of demonstrating the opposite of that.

    Oh and if journalists stopped treating them like fun and whacky characters who make politics more interesting. That would help too.

  4. It ain’t over until the fat lady sings. Plenty of time for Labor to shoot itself in the foot, while the Coalition can literally f*** around with impunity.

  5. William Bowe says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:03 am
    Morgan: 54.5-45.5.

    Many thanks William for Burning the Midnight Oil

    Nice. Sweet dreams one and all

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