Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

The latest Ipsos poll finds the Coalition yielding no measurable benefit from the first fortnight of the campaign, while Newspoll is effectively unchanged from a week agoi.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged from 53-47 a week ago, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady) and One Nation 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 38% and down one to 50%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 44-37 to 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.

Also out this evening is the second Ipsos poll for the Financial Review finds no improvement in the Coalition’s position since its post-budget poll, continuing to credit Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45 based on 2019 preference flows after exclusion of the 8% undecided (otherwise Labor 50 and Coalition 42). Ipsos provides a further two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences that includes those undecided on either primary vote and preference choice as a separate component: this has Labor steady on 48%, the Coalition up one to 38% and undecided down one to 14%. After excluding 9% unaccounted for (7% undecided plus 2% not enrolled – the latter is no longer featured, perhaps reflecting the close of the rolls) in the previous poll and 8% for the current one, the primary votes have the Coalition up 0.7% to 34.8%, Labor down 1.5% to 37.0%, the Greens up 2.1% to 13.0%, One Nation steady at 4.3% and the United Australia Party up 1.1% to 3.3%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, his approval up one to 34% and disapproval steady at 48%. Anthony Albanese suffers little damage from his early campaign mishaps, with approval up one to 31% and disapproval up three to 35%. He maintains a lead as preferred prime minister of 40-38, out from 38-37. The pollster’s gender gaps remain substantial, with the Coalition’s primary vote six points lower among women than men, Labor’s two points lower and the Greens’ five point higher, respectively compared with three points, seven points and four points last time. Scott Morrison’s net approval rating is minus six among men, down from minus eight, and minus 19 among women, down from minus 22. Anthony Albanese also does worse among women (minus six net approval) than men (minus one). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a large sample of 2302.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,559 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

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  1. GG

    Get well – a long process for some people. There is evidence that the vaccinated are much less likely to get long lasting problems. My hope is that it ends up like Coronavirus OC43 which is now believed to have been the cause of what had previously been thought to be a flu pandemic in 1889-90. Clever statistical analysis of this virus’ RNA genome (it now pretty much only ever causes a common cold) seems to show that that’s when it crossed over from animals into humans. There is some debate about this, but apparently one of the unusual things in that 1889-90 pandemic was that lots of people lost their sense of taste and smell.

    It is likely that all the ‘original four’ Coronaviruses came from animals, in the same way the SARS, MERS and Covid-19 almost certainly did, so the general hope is that as time goes on evolution takes Covid-19 down a path of more spreadable variants that outcompete more severe ones.

    This is not guaranteed however.

    All the best, and hope you are in very good health by 21st May and get a special ‘booster’ that day!

  2. Greens push to sue coal, gas companies

    Coal and gas companies could be sued for climate-fuelled flood damage under legislation promised by the Greens.

    Greens leader Adam Bandt will join the party’s candidate Mandy Nolan for the flood-affected region of Richmond, on the NSW upper north coast, to announce the policy on Tuesday while offering extra support for flood victims.

    The party introduced the Liability for Climate Change Damage Bill 2021 in the last parliamentary sitting period.

    The Greens will also push for a $190 million a year fund for local communities in Richmond to build and upgrade critical infrastructure to reduce flood impacts.

    The party will move to change the investment restrictions on the Emergency Response Fund to ensure $600 million is spent each year up until 2026/27, and $300 million a year afterwards, on climate resilience.

    “Coal and gas are the leading causes of climate change, which is ravaging the Northern Rivers,” Mr Bandt said.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/election/greens-push-to-sue-coal-gas-companies-c-6576341

  3. Life wasn’t meant to be easy.

    Fraser’s best known phrase, generally taken as a gloomy explanation of life’s difficulties, but for him rather it was a reason to take on difficult tasks. Not widely recognised as being in fact a paraphrase of a line from George Bernard Shaw’s play Back to Methuselah: “Life is not meant to be easy, my child; but take courage: it can be delightful.” Well known from his Alfred Deakin lecture speech (20 July 1971), he’d actually used it or known the sentiment for many years prior; according to an interview for the Australian Biography project (1994).)

  4. Slightly different spelling guykb – ours is fininshes in el – though could be a distant relative bc there have been many changes over the years and we have lots of Irish relos who spell it il

    Am curious though – how’d you find out my surname (unless you know my hubby?)

  5. Rocket it seems News Corps strategy no surprise is just to ignore it and turn the microscope on to Labor and Climate 200.

    LATEST HEADLINES:

    “Warning over Labor’s ‘stealth carbon tax’”

    Labor has been accused of planning a carbon tax by stealth with its policy to cut emissions from major industrial polluters as the climate wars ignited new political brawls.

    30 minutes ago By Greg Brown

    EXCLUSIVE
    “Come clean on interests, Climate chief told”

    Liberals battling independent candidates who are funded by Simon Holmes a Court’s group have called on him to be ‘transparent’ about his clean-­energy investments.

    27 minutes ago By BRAD NORINGTON

  6. “Fluoridation…pffft..
    Clive Berghofer was given massive air time to tell Queenslanders recycled water would mean poo on tap.”

    Actually, that would be the result of the sort of unfettered capitalism favoured by the IPA, Murdoch and the “Liberals”.

  7. Have to agree with Nath. I have never met an Afikaaner I have liked. Not racist all all, I must have just met all the fascist ones.

  8. @Freya Stark
    Alberta is what it would be most analogous to out of that list.

    Seat Betting

    Labor are favourite in 78 seats Coalition 67 others 6.There are six seats where the favourite is 4-5 or longer so really equal favourites.

    They are Longman,Robertson,Wentworth, Goldstein,Bass and Braddon.

    Two other seats of note. Gilmore Labor are suddenly blowing out here, out to 1.75 the other is Nicholls The National party candidate has also got the wobbles also out to 1.75.

  9. Peter Stantonsays:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 8:31 pm
    For those of us who are still nervous about a the election. When was the last time you saw Labor promoting national security as an election issue?
    ________________
    Gillard on the Patrol boat. Doesn’t seem like that long ago. 2010 maybe ?

  10. Oh I just noticed Sportsbet has moved a bit after being stuck on 1.70 Labor and 2.10 Coalition for almost a week. It’s now out to 1.55 Labor and 2.40 Coalition.

    But I am sure that has already been shared on here by those who breathlessly reported every movement in the Coalition’s favour over the last fortnight.

  11. I’m too young to remember an election campaign in enough detail pre-2001. Can the more experienced heads out there remember a time where Labor ever campaigned on a national security issue and been on the front foot on it?

  12. Dandy Murray says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 10:17 pm
    “@upnorth I don’t think you need a wardrobe up here. T-shirt and shorts is all you appear to need”

    Appropriate that footwear was not mentioned.
    ====••••••=====+++===
    Sorry troops. I have been having a dip. Because I am mostly white (leave the rest to your imagination) I have a swim as the sun sets. I’m facing the Gulf of Siam at the moment.

    It’s true. In QLD you really only need a T Shirt and Stubbies (shorts). At more flash joints you will need thongs. But you can take em off once at the bar or a table for comfort.

    I gotta peel some prawns and crabs for Mrs Upnorth. We having Laksa for tea. Check in later. See if Fire-Fox got back to me

  13. Off for a 2 week holiday tomorrow visiting the daughter in Singapore,fly out 12pm some nice warm weather.
    Back just in time for the result.

  14. GG wrote “And they are the racists?” Are they? All the ones I met were died in the wool fascists. Hated the ‘blicks.’

  15. Nice Mrmoney,

    Most restrictions just lifted at hawker centres etc, and in their own way, the Singaporeans have sorted out who the next PM is going to be. Shame about proceedings at Changi prison tomorrow morning though.

  16. Fire-Fox says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 11:17 pm
    No hyphens this time, just a living legend driving Daniel’s-Tesla…
    =============
    I do like Tesla. In fact being the renewables trade I support greater use of EVs, wind turbines and Solar Panels for instance.

    Also more freight on rail. An absolute must. Lots of steel needed guys if we are to reduce carbon emissions globally.

    Buuuuuut. Fire-Fox. I haven’t got time to go back through your posts, sooooooo can you please tell us the name of the Greens candidate in Macnamara. Please !!!!

  17. Yeah a lot of restrictions lifted from midnight no rats to get into Singapore and none to come home ,meeting numbers lifted,some mask provisions.still apply.

  18. mj says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 11:13 pm
    I’m too young to remember an election campaign in enough detail pre-2001. Can the more experienced heads out there remember a time where Labor ever campaigned on a national security issue and been on the front foot on it?
    ============
    Bob Hawke big time. 84 and 87. Let’s stick Together, Let’s see it Through.

    Lots of money also for the Army Reserves and the birth of The Bush Tucker Man, Les Hiddens. Also a realization, we have to defend the North of Australia not the Brisbane line South.

  19. mj at 11.13pm

    I was in school and only remember by virtue of reading etc, but Gough seemed to be on the front foot about vacating Vietnam – a war that had become unpopular.

    Hawke & Keating never had to campaign on it.

    My sense is, national security has been a campaign issue for the Right when they could scare people about communists or (non-white) terrorists.

    This might be the first time since WW2 that national security is 1) being used by the Right in a campaign; and 2) emerging as a positive for Labor (due to the usual Coalition uselessness being exposed at the right time for an election.)

  20. That’s a pleasant surprise Mr Money, I’m visiting family in Singapore in June and thought I’d need to get a PCR test before arriving.

  21. Mrmoney says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 11:37 pm
    Yeah a lot of restrictions lifted from midnight no rats to get into Singapore and none to come home ,meeting numbers lifted,some mask provisions.still apply.
    ==============
    Maxwell Road Food Court. Look for River Valley Char Kway Teow. Get the bloody cockles as extra. However there are rats

  22. “My sense is, national security has been a campaign issue for the Right when they could scare people about communists or (non-white) terrorists.”

    The Right campaign on fear and greed. The mix varies with the times they find themselves in. They throw in a side serving of bigotry and (coded) racism, actually a subset of fear.

  23. Fire-Fox says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 11:40 pm
    “Buuuuuut. Fire-Fox. I haven’t got time to go back through your posts, sooooooo can you please tell us the name of the Greens candidate in Macnamara. Please !!!!”
    ===••••••++**=======
    Steph Hodgins-May.

    Sir I salute you on this International Day for Hypen Surnames. Your a good sport old son.

    Good luck to you in Richmond on the 21st. Get lots of preferences for Labor cobber. Used to know Jo Faith of your mob down there. Not sure if she survived the Greens as she had no hyphen.

  24. I can only speak of those I associate with, obviously

    Without wishing to sound presumptuous, they are all well to very well to do with histories of employment in senior management across industry and commerce (some still occupying those positions)

    Given this, politics is not a subject of conversation – they knowing that I (also) vote Labor, citing Stiglitz

    Any conversation which veers toward political is always respectful and polite

    The past period of time (so over months and more), there is one message – and it is spoken to (not by my lead – I mainly listen)

    The reputation of this prime minister and his government is in the sewer – particularly the prime minister

    They are wearing their “Teal” T-shirts, when we meet with the candidate they support and her campaign manager

    Some who do not live in the electorate also wear the T-shirts when we congregate because we congregate in the electorate

    And they attend fund raising functions and they donate – money and time

    Their children are on side

    You can only speak to what you see, hear and know

    This prime minister is ridiculed – without exception

    In a heartland seat

    It is going to be interesting, at least

  25. “Sir I salute you on this International Day for Hypen Surnames. Your a good sport old son.

    Good luck to you in Richmond on the 21st. Get lots of preferences for Labor cobber. Used to know Jo Faith of your mob down there. Not sure if she survived the Greens as she had no hyphen.”

    ***

    And to you too. Don’t worry, will definitely be putting Labor somewhere above the Nats for sure.

  26. Here we go again – 1154 pm

    I have yet to see one Liberal billboard, poster or flyer from anywhere in Australia where the candidate is pictured with Morrison. They all know such a picture would be a vote loser.

    And that includes ‘safe’ seats as well as marginals.

  27. hmm, Rob Priestly (non-teal Independent) is the challenger for Nicholls (Vic).

    The Nat is retiring, so both Lib and new-Nat are running.

    Rob Priestly looks to have an almost perfect background for the seat, similar background to the Nat candidate, which could complicate the preference flows.

    My guess is that if it comes down to Lib vs Ind, the Ind might have a chance, but if its Nat vs Ind, Lib preferences will all go to Nat.

  28. “I’m too young to remember an election campaign in enough detail pre-2001. Can the more experienced heads out there remember a time where Labor ever campaigned on a national security issue and been on the front foot on it?”

    WW2, before the Red Scare.

  29. @RocketRocket – the flyers in the seat of Cook must be interesting.

    You’re right though, it’s a far cry from the “Turnbull Coalition Team” election where you could be forgiven for thinking the Liberals had disbanded as their party name was verboten in favour of the cult of Malcolm.

  30. Thanks Snappy Tom, makes sense that there would have been a backlash as the Vietnam War dragged on, and with conscription I imagine it would have more directly impacted people compared to more recent wars. It sounds like Labor would have framed it more as a “lets not waste more unnecessary lives for a pointless cause” issue rather than a direct or perceived national security threat, but I wasn’t witness to it so stand to be corrected.

    National security is largely used as a convenient scare tactic since Howard. Yes he was a manipulator but the LNP still had some brains back then. The current Govt still tries to run on the same lines but don’t even bother talking or engaging with other countries, and are left wanting. Like her or hate her J Bishop was a decent FM. With a PM who shows no integrity or interest in foreign affairs coupled with Payne who is inoffensive but also not really assertive, and therefore ineffective in her role they have left a wide hole to invite problems in foreign relations.

  31. D says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 10:52 pm
    Fluoridation…pffft..
    Clive Berghofer was given massive air time to tell Queenslanders recycled water would mean poo on tap.
    ============
    Said it a couple of days ago. The Bligh Government Mandated fluoride across Queensland. It was opposed by the then LNP Opposition leader and DENTIST John Paul Langbroek.

    Townsville has had fluoride since the 70s.

  32. Hi all. Sorry for the long post. But this is important. A real attack on our democracy. I shall be lodging a complaint with the AEC

    The Australian Electoral Commission(AEC) have axed 67 in person overseas polling booths for this Federal election leaving 32,193 voters without a polling station. The axing of the polling places where 52% of overseas votes were cast in 2019 has been subject of a formal complaint by ALP Abroad to the AEC about their failure in their core role established by parliament to “deliver the franchise: that is, an Australian citizen’s right to vote” for overseas Australian’s.

    The right of citizens to vote in person is sacred and any decision that impacts that fundamental right requires the highest degree of transparency.

    ALP Abroad have formally requested from the AEC Commissioner Tom Rogers requesting,

    The process by which the AEC determined which stations to close or remain open for each individual location,
    the basis on which the determination was made for each location to close or remain open.
    In providing the reason for the closure, please indicate who was involved in the decision and how the public was consulted. Each decision to close a polling station should refer to how this maximises electoral participation with reference to the Australian Electoral Commissions role to “deliver the franchise: that is, an Australian citizen’s right to vote”
    The AEC Commissioner has not answered these questions but AEC generally tried to blame the Covid pandemic.

    Reading the list of stations to be axed, it is clear that there is no compelling public health case for example to close.

    Close Washington, Los Angeles and Chicago while keeping open New York and San Francisco
    Close Wellington while keeping open Auckland
    Close Singapore, one of our largest overseas booths, where the Covid situation is no worse than Australia’s
    Close all three Canadian polling stations where Covid is no worse than Australia.
    The AEC axing of overseas polling stations has put bureaucratic convenience over the upholding the right of Australians to vote

    Overseas voters can write directly to the AEC at tom.rogers@aec.gov.au and tweet your protest at them at @AusElectoralCom

    Overseas voters whose polling stations has are strongly encouraged to apply for a postal vote.

  33. mj at 12.10am

    I’m not sure Gough was interested in the cost of Vietnam.

    He certainly promoted an ‘independent’ Australia.

    This spoke to the times, as the nation emerged from the ‘sheep’s back’/’cultural cringe’ era.

    Howard did his best to take us back to the cringe. The war on terror helped him.

    Even though we are, in many ways, more open-minded than in the Whitlam/Hawke eras (Same Sex Marriage, for example), in others – like that fresh expression of dependence on other white, English speaking nations called AUKUS; the relative death of republicanism – we’re less.

    Little Johnny Howard’s Little Australia. Ugh.

  34. Snappy Tom – Howard was just the beginning. In the next generation there will be the ongoing Le-Penification of Australian society. Trumpist national-conservative governments based on a combination of the politics of fear and anti-wokeism combined with subsidies to big business and fossil fuels. Further persecution of minorities of ethnicity and gender. A dismantling of Medicare and further degradation of the higher education sector. And a return to family values.

  35. Catching up on today’s political articles, it certainly seems that the Libs and Nats are at war internally, jockeying to see who takes over the ship after it goes down.

    In other news just punch in “Hillsong Exposed” to the YouTube search box. You’ll see why even Trump couldn’t stand it inside the walls of the White House: a combination of moral revulsion and turf war, with the other phony religions who got behind Trump first not wanting any competition.

    There is a towering, monumental scandal to be uncovered around Hillsong. The stench of that organization is overpowering. It’s cultish and sick.

    A teaser: https://youtu.be/5iU5OVH33as

    And our Prime Minister absolutely BRAGS of his connections to that evil empire of greed and exploitation, and to those who run it. Bloody disgusting.

  36. Gough was too independent for the USA it seems, and was toppled for it.

    Morrison is just incompetent, your average pollbludger would make a better PM.

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