The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged from 53-47 a week ago, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady) and One Nation 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 38% and down one to 50%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 44-37 to 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.
Also out this evening is the second Ipsos poll for the Financial Review finds no improvement in the Coalition’s position since its post-budget poll, continuing to credit Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45 based on 2019 preference flows after exclusion of the 8% undecided (otherwise Labor 50 and Coalition 42). Ipsos provides a further two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences that includes those undecided on either primary vote and preference choice as a separate component: this has Labor steady on 48%, the Coalition up one to 38% and undecided down one to 14%. After excluding 9% unaccounted for (7% undecided plus 2% not enrolled – the latter is no longer featured, perhaps reflecting the close of the rolls) in the previous poll and 8% for the current one, the primary votes have the Coalition up 0.7% to 34.8%, Labor down 1.5% to 37.0%, the Greens up 2.1% to 13.0%, One Nation steady at 4.3% and the United Australia Party up 1.1% to 3.3%.
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, his approval up one to 34% and disapproval steady at 48%. Anthony Albanese suffers little damage from his early campaign mishaps, with approval up one to 31% and disapproval up three to 35%. He maintains a lead as preferred prime minister of 40-38, out from 38-37. The pollster’s gender gaps remain substantial, with the Coalition’s primary vote six points lower among women than men, Labor’s two points lower and the Greens’ five point higher, respectively compared with three points, seven points and four points last time. Scott Morrison’s net approval rating is minus six among men, down from minus eight, and minus 19 among women, down from minus 22. Anthony Albanese also does worse among women (minus six net approval) than men (minus one). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a large sample of 2302.
I have a feeling that like tea leaves, the commentators will find a lot of meaning in a second decimal place figure when newspoll drops.
Scomo’s bag of tricks won’t work, every time he does something ‘fun’ like cooking something it reminds everyone that he’s been doing photo ops like that the whole fucking term. Turnbull did work, and so did Abbot, so when they did the cheesy stuff it was a break from it, but with scomo it’s just constant theater whilst you know that work needs to be done and it’s not happening in government because everyones busying prepping the next photo.
Very nice result for this stage of the campaign. The improved primary for the Coalition is still very bad. I’d prefer a slightly higher Labor PV but if it all washes out to a majority who really cares.
Albo disappears and he goes up as preferred PM.
Well thank you Mr Bowe (not) for the new thread. Half of us yabbering on the old one.
Wanted to thank poroti and send our Freya a message from the CWA
Upnorth says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:45 pm
poroti says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:28 pm
Upnorth at 6:22 pm
@ Freya – you up for a waltz?
Only if you are up for……………..
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Love it poroti. Poor old Freya. I reckon she has been offered a job with Allan Tudge if SfM gets back. But all her dreams and hopes are starting to vanish.
Still Freya, on a positive note – the invitation to Bobawabba stands. I spoke to the President of the CWA she said to tell you:
“Damn the King Browns, Taipans, Tiger Snakes and Death Adders. Thumb your nose at those pesky Stink Bugs, Cane Beetles and Mosquitoes. We will throw caution to the wind and go to the beach – woe any Box Jellyfish that comes near us. Aerogard for the Sandflies. As for the crocodiles, we will make sure they are well fed before you go to the creek for a dip.”
Don’t worry Freya, Bobawabba will be your sanctuary should that horrible socialist Mr Albanese (what sort of name is that?) wins. In Queensland (and on some statue) we say this about our poor southern cousins:
Give Queensland your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to Queensland, I lift my XXXX beside the Big Pineapple!” Queensland’s greatness and true genius lies in its diversity of Rum.
I think newspoll will be 54-46 to ALP with even ALP, LNP -1 and any change from the others.
Albo will regain some ground in PPM and approval but only 1 -2 pts
What is notable on current polls is the high water mark of the Greens, 13 in IPSOS and 12 in the last newspoll – where the majority of ALP vote went.
Tanya running rings around Jane Hume on the Project
Yes, Snappy, the Libs are letting the Majors down!
Holdenhillbilly at 7.09pm
Brilliant move by Albo!
Cue shagging and fragging in the bunker folks!
I’ve just seen Dutton’s comments about Germany in the 1930s on the news in relation to China/Solomons.
They’re getting more and more shrill.
“ While Mr Morrison’s campaign has been disciplined, his numbers have hardly moved. His approval rating rose 1 point to 33 per cent, while his disapproval rating stayed steady at 48 per cent, giving him a net negative of 15 points. At the same stage of the 2019 election campaign, Mr Morrison had a net positive of 9 points.”
I do find this interesting and noteworthy, perhaps significant, perhaps not, only time will tell.
It’s weird to see primaries for both major parties so low…
Are we on NewspollWatch? If so, my guess is 52-48.
Come on Morgan. Give us a LNP 2PP near my temperature.
Confessions says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:13 pm
I’ve just seen Dutton’s comments about Germany in the 1930s on the news in relation to China/Solomons.
They’re getting more and more shrill.
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If things get worse for the Tories don’t be surprised to see a pre-emptive invasion of the Solomons’ by the ADF before Election Day.
A bit like the Battle for Madagascar in WWII. Timeline fits and all. Just 80 years later.
“The Battle of Madagascar (5 May – 6 November 1942) was a British campaign to capture the Vichy French-controlled island Madagascar during World War II. The seizure of the island by the British was to deny Madagascar’s ports to the Imperial Japanese Navy and to prevent the loss or impairment of the Allied shipping routes to India, Australia and Southeast Asia. It began with Operation Ironclad, the seizure of the port of Diego-Suarez (now Antsiranana) near the northern tip of the island, on 5 May 1942.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Madagascar
You lot were making so much noise you didn’t hear the barmaid* calling out “Time gentlemen* please. The new Ipsos Arms down the road has just opened for business.”
*I’m using the historical reference where ladies were banned from the public bar, generally excluded from the saloon bar and expected to drink shandies at most in the lounge bar (at least in NSW).
mj says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:56 pm
The under aged 40 conservative vote is shocking, in the low-mid 20’s first preference, at this rate the LNP are going the way of the dodo.
—
“Let’s wheel out old Johnny Winston Howard! That’ll win the young-uns over!”
I expect newspoll to be either 53/47 or 54/46 based on what chris kenny said.
If the lnp primary has not moved or gone backwards then what will their next moves be.
So has Frydenberg turned up in Kooyong at all this entire campaign? When was he last seen among his people?
ltep @ #NaN Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 7:17 pm
I’m not surprised by them.
citizen says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:19 pm
Upnorth says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:09 pm
Well thank you Mr Bowe (not) for the new thread. Half of us yabbering on the old one.
You lot were making so much noise you didn’t hear the barmaid* calling out “Time gentlemen* please. The new Ipsos Arms down the road has just opened for business.”
*I’m using the historical reference where ladies were banned from the public bar, generally excluded from the saloon bar and expected to drink shandies at most in the lounge bar (at least in NSW).
===================================
True good sir true. Anyway I just left them there yabbering amongst themselves.
Agree Sprocket. It’s starting to look desperate for the LNP. Barnaby’s insiders interview, which was pretty horrible, looked less desperate than the PM and Dutton lately. When Barnaby is your most stable presenter, you’re in a world of trouble.
I just want the trans ‘debate’ to end. My daughter has been shielded from it. Until yesterday. It’s pretty hard to explain to a 13year old why the government is anti her… Just wish it would end for her sake.
Same applies to people still posting on PB about it. While I understand why you are, and you are all actually very reasonable in commentary (Thankyou), I just wish everyone would give the topic less oxygen.
Thanks for the well wishing. But it isn’t working. Someone sing me Soft Kitty.
Sprocket, 10 seats in NSW , 100 seats overall – like your 2019 prediction?
Bit of padding for Labor in the Greens Primary, I’m thinking. Some seem to be missing the, err, nuances.
The breakdowns are the hammer-blow.
Where do the LNP go when their only strength is males in the 50+ age group.
24% Primary in under 40 age group, ALP primary 50% above theirs, how will the LNP ever recover from that lost generation of support.
I don’t get the feeling that a change is on. Kevin 07 and Abbott 13 both had buzz and it was clear a change was about to happen, it just feel lacklustre at the minute.
“Also, I don’t believe Greens can get a PV of 13% in a change election.”
***
That’s the thing though – the Greens actually offer real change and a fresh approach to that of the out of touch duopoly.
It’s very encouraging to see the continued rise of the progressive left.
My earlier prediction for Newspoll was 52/48 but I agree 53/47 or better is more likely given Kenny’s comment. They definitely wouldn’t spin 52/48 as not much change.
The difference is the media is so partisan in 2022.
In previous elections the media would have provided more favourable coverage to the alp.
JoM says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:25 pm
Abbott 13 had buzz
—
You lost me at this complete fiction.
Chris Kenny and Bluey are like THAT when it comes to predicting NewsPoll outcomes.
Holdenhillbilly @ #53 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 7:09 pm
Ah the irony of not being well known by the voting public according to the MSM…Q:Who would you prefer as PM SFM or some one else?
A: Someone else please Mr Webb
Morrison is like one of them “turd sucking” Mullet we use to catch Barra. I mean the guy is Prime MInister (along with Marise Payne) and has a record low for competence!
Albo is LOTO – it ain’t up to prove himself – yet.
“The poll also shows little regard for both leaders on key attributes, with Scott Morrison recording a record low rating for trustworthiness, and Mr Albanese having a record low rating for economic management.
Both men are tied at a record low rating for competence.”
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-fails-to-make-ground-on-labor-20220425-p5aftw
That young Mr Kroger needs to get his eyes lasered, he’s mistook narrowing when the tele prompter said a harrowing newspoll for those scoundrels.
I had mine done and I can see as well as I did back in the days of the depression when I was a young’un. My dear old ma would give me two rounds for the 22 to shoot some bunnies for dinner, and more often than not we ate up two bunnies for dinner.
I don’t think it’s a mood for change election, besides reforms on climate and integrity, it’s more of a let’s get rid of that dunce Morrison. Labor has probably gone small target knowing that, I mean 2019 made it pretty clear.
Holdenhillbilly @– 7:09 pm
I cannot remember if it was when he was LOTO or as PM but Tony Abbott’s ‘popularity’ was very much enhanced when he was out of the news.
Great Aunt Eunice says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:29 pm
That young Mr Kroger needs to get his eyes lasered, he’s mistook narrowing when the tele prompter said a harrowing newspoll for those scoundrels.
I had mine done and I can see as well as I did back in the days of the depression when I was a young’un. My dear old ma would give me two rounds for the 22 to shoot some bunnies for dinner, and more often than not we ate up two bunnies for dinner.
=====================
I hope you gave Edward a good tongue lashing or the belt. Saying you had passed and all that. I went to Mass and took Communion knowing you are safe.
By the way Nath knows “Krogs” very well. He can talk to Mr Kroger about his eyes.
JoM @ #77 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 7:25 pm
Oh for crying out loud,this election campaign has been going on since last year on the tax payers $.
Isn’t just possible that most voters have already made up their minds months ago,anyone but SfM.
With social media and scomo in campaign mode since 2019, people may have switched off
Kevin also seemed to have Murdoch on his side in ’07. I don’t remember his media outlets being so rabid towards him back then.
I wish we could go back to those days.
It’s also the electorate is more tired and frustrated, than outright angry.
There is more than one kind of change election.
Ven @ #36 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 7:00 pm
On 16 Dec 2019, 23 houses were burnt down on the Bells Line of Road at Bell, and Mount Wilson, nearby, including the house of the local Bushfire Brigade captain. On that day Scott Morrison secretly pissed off to Hawaii, and lied about telling Anthony Albanese where he was going. No acting PM was nominated until 5 days later.
MJ you have a point
CarefullyRushed says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:36 pm
Kevin also seemed to have Murdoch on his side in ’07. I don’t remember his media outlets being so rabid towards him back then.
I wish we could go back to those days.
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So do I. I was young and handsome. Debonair some would say. But time, tide and Queensland Railways waits for nobody.
Scomo was texting during the dawn ceremony
https://www.tiktok.com/@csbaus/video/7090447425218891010?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1
Upnorth, I hope that name of yours isn’t some sort of idle boast, sadly even the men 30 years my junior point downsouth, even with those blue pills.
As far as that Edward goes, he’s just after my real estate and my wardrobe. We in the family find it best just to ignore him at family get togethers, it’s just easier you’ll find.
This post could be construed as ‘tempting fate’…
What if Newspoll is 53 (or 54!) 2PP to Labor – and stays that way?
Remember, Newspoll has been pretty good on recent state elections – even though that doesn’t mean it will be similarly good federally.
Remember also, Newspoll has slightly underestimated the ALP in recent state elections.
There is a plausible universe in which, somehow, Labor’s 2PP at this election is at least 53%.
And the Coalition know this. Let the panic resume…
The Greens are an unknown in this election because it could be status quo for them or they could pick up seats like Richmond Brisbane Ryan Griffith and Higgins.
The mood in LNP is bleak and their campaign is flat and the ALP are playing like a footy side 10 goals in front.
My newspoll pick is 54-46.
So with cost of living pressures and flat wages growth:-
Inflation will drive interest rates up, replicating the 2007 election campaign period (and year) and noting the result of that election
Based on DJIA Futures, the Dow will be down 5% or more over the last 3 trading days – and given the Public Holiday in Australia today the ASX will be awash in red on opening tomorrow
No doubt we will hear that it would be worse under a Labor administration
But we have a Tory administration delivering right now – and this is the result
And a long serving Tory administration to boot
Apart from the cost increases at the supermarket and at the petrol station, we have the increases in private medical premiums and home insurance premiums along with Council Rates
How is this all playing out in the households of Australians?
And is what we are being fed by media the ultimate distraction?