The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged from 53-47 a week ago, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady) and One Nation 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 38% and down one to 50%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 44-37 to 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.
Also out this evening is the second Ipsos poll for the Financial Review finds no improvement in the Coalition’s position since its post-budget poll, continuing to credit Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45 based on 2019 preference flows after exclusion of the 8% undecided (otherwise Labor 50 and Coalition 42). Ipsos provides a further two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences that includes those undecided on either primary vote and preference choice as a separate component: this has Labor steady on 48%, the Coalition up one to 38% and undecided down one to 14%. After excluding 9% unaccounted for (7% undecided plus 2% not enrolled – the latter is no longer featured, perhaps reflecting the close of the rolls) in the previous poll and 8% for the current one, the primary votes have the Coalition up 0.7% to 34.8%, Labor down 1.5% to 37.0%, the Greens up 2.1% to 13.0%, One Nation steady at 4.3% and the United Australia Party up 1.1% to 3.3%.
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, his approval up one to 34% and disapproval steady at 48%. Anthony Albanese suffers little damage from his early campaign mishaps, with approval up one to 31% and disapproval up three to 35%. He maintains a lead as preferred prime minister of 40-38, out from 38-37. The pollster’s gender gaps remain substantial, with the Coalition’s primary vote six points lower among women than men, Labor’s two points lower and the Greens’ five point higher, respectively compared with three points, seven points and four points last time. Scott Morrison’s net approval rating is minus six among men, down from minus eight, and minus 19 among women, down from minus 22. Anthony Albanese also does worse among women (minus six net approval) than men (minus one). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a large sample of 2302.
You nervous ninnies need to get a grip. Morrison is gone. He’s toast. People loathe him. His government is incompetent, corrupt and without agenda. It’s time you all stopped over-thinking this. Get off this forum and get a life.
Oh goody another Newspoll tonight. My uneducated crystal ball says 53-47 again and no movement in the PV.
Sportsbet odds on some NSW seats, fascinating – Mackeller added to their list of key seats, improving odds for Alectra Spender in Wentworth, odds for Liberal candidate in Parramatta blowing out(good for Andrew Charlton if people were worried about that one)
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/electorate-betting-nsw-seats-6484922
CarefullyRushed,
(from the last thread)
Thanks for your comment.
FWIW I have a few close friends who are trans, and I’m guided by their take on this whole “debate” or dead cat dog whistle, and it matches yours.
@yabba
Albo visited us during that time, whilst we were all working our collective arses off.
It definitely helped seeing leadership, even from the Opposition.
The pollster’s gender gaps remain substantial.. so is Textors tactic to run Katherine Deves an attempt to get women onside fearing transgender.. not realising that women are more tolerant & less fearful than that… possibly counterproductive of Textor /SCOMO
Everyone in Mr Denmore’s Twitter feed says so. What more proof do you need?
I just got YouGov polled for first and second preference federal election. Then a whole lot about universities.
Sportsbet odds for “key Victorian seats”.
I find this interesting for 2 reasons: 1. Nicholls has been added to their list, another independent challenge to a conservative MP
2. Casey – odds for the Labor candidate have improved since the last time I looked at that one.
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/electorate-betting-vic-seats-6495711
Personally I think the move to Labor has been on for 12 months and nothing is going to change much in the next three weeks. Morrison/Coalition are unelectable.
I’ll take a 55-45, 3 weeks out from an election with an MOE of 2 2% any time!
Is 2.2% correct on a sample of 2302 ?
Spectic
Its not that females are more tolerant but the Libs are not campaigning on the real issue and are just being transprobic.
This is the first first election I recall where corruption is actually a central concern. And a valid one in my experience.
And the PM has been called a bare faced liar by a President, his party, everyone but Jenny.
He would also have to be the only PM since Holt to go missing while on duty.
Plus that pesky whole #metoo thing that was ignored…
I’m actually surprised he had any chance at all leading into the campaign. It really is quite the CV…
54/46 tonight, with more of a swing in QLD than recent.
The Greens PV seems to be holding up in Newspoll. Does yougov-Newspoll have a reputation for over stating the Greens PV in previous elections ?
Bit rich, coming from you, Mr. Denmore.
Concur with your prediction, but your admonition is a tad hypocritical from a man who appears to spend his spare time on social media.
I just saw Morrison stunt pouring a beer from the Tab. In the next frame after taking a sip of beer, I saw his lips saying “hold my beer mate” and gave his beer to a person adjacent to him.
At that moment I remembered Sprocket. 🙂
To me this poll has a whiff of the 99 Vic poll, the anti jeff, in this case the anti SfM, but for all the faults of the vic libs in that time, the fed LNP are far worse.
However the desperation and the sandbagging of the indies is much worse this time, only thing similar is the cult of the leader.
Lars @6.53 ….
You are obviously smarter than you ingenuous comment….
The point being that with the LNP vote say, in the Ipsos, being down at 32 or whatever, and 3% of this is made up of the National’s vote, there are not many more votes to be found on the right side of politics…ON? Palmer? Bibs and Bobs….
The point being, which you tried to avoid, is that most voters actually do not want the LNP…..
True to say the Labor PV in the mid 30s is not wonderful, but then the Greens call in somewhere between 10 and 14% of the PV for one lower house seat…While it is seats held which governs, to pretend the Liberals are supported by more than 1 in 3 voters is missing the point….The electorate really doesn’t want what the LNP have on offer….
And on things in the UK, the comparison is meaningless…
They do no have compulsory voting – as you well know – and up to 1 in three of eligible voters did not bother to vote in the last UK election…..
Take as well the fact that the major parties in the UK have virtually ceased to exist in Scotland, the vote for the Tories is in Little England with an enclave in ex-Labour areas where some up there think that Tories give a shit about them….
Margaret Thatcher, by the way, is equally hated and loved…
I was in the UK when she died and while the Tories mourned her passing, the rest of the country did not…So much for one’s “legacy”…..
@Dandy Murray
My pleasure. I hope it helped.
I’m getting beyond exhausted with alt-right figures weighing in on my existence, who really have no freaking clue.
It’s surreal having to become a self-taught expert in gender theory, psychology, endocrinology, sociology and so many other disciplines in order to justify my existence to those who think otherwise.
I can’t wait for May 22, and a change of government with it.
Mexicanbeemer
I think more importantly than women being “more tolerant” as an inherent thing, it’s that anti-trans rhetoric and policies are taken as a (reverse) dog-whistle towards curtailing women’s reproductive rights and general healthcare access. Those policies certainly go together in the US.
Mexicanbeemer at 7.48pm
“transprobic”
Interesting – and I’m sure unintentional – image!
I’m not surprised to see The Greens vote going up, I’ve been so disappointed with Labor this campaign, as have so many of my friends. Was going to vote Labor before but after I heard Adam Bandt speak I checked out his Greens and I changed my mind because they have much better policies.
People hoping that the current low vote for the majors might provide some impetus for proportional representation in the lower house are going to be very disappointed.
Unfortunately for their cause, most of the most effective seat-winners from this are the independents who receive personal mandates. Independents do particularly badly from PR, and will thank our preferential electoral system for their position in parliament. And they do best when they split the difference between the major groupings, so they tend to be very productive centrists.
In fact, I would make it a general prediction that our system will have a parliament that is most inclined towards PR when it is parties far out on the wings who hold the balance of power, rather than centrists. But this will occur at a time when change is less appealing, when trust in organisations (including parties) is low. People on the right aren’t going to want the Greens to get better representation, and people on the left aren’t going to want Palmer’s party or One Nation to get better representation. This is different from the situation in New Zealand and other places where PR has been implemented, where better representation for the wings was part of a trade off that led to better representation of the centre as well.
Similarly, there won’t be any change until South Australia makes one, because South Australia is the state which tends to have the worst distribution of voters for one of the major parties and is the state most inclined to governments winning with less than 50% of the 2PP.
None of this is to say that I think proportional representation is bad or that we can’t adopt it. I just don’t think it can be made on the basis of the current record low rates of votes for major parties. Probably we will be much more inclined to adopt it at a time of high rates of votes for major parties, at a time when we generally trust parties as such.
@williambowe has a preferred PM’s party ever lost an election even when political party is polling poorly?
My point is elections are becoming more presidential preferred PM might be a measure worth looking at
“Kevin also seemed to have Murdoch on his side in ’07. I don’t remember his media outlets being so rabid towards him back then.
I wish we could go back to those days.”
Crap. Murdoch papers went hard and only had a couple of editorials back Rudd at the last moment when the election was a forgone conclusion.
They were talking up the council amalgamations could cost Labor the federal election in Queensland. When most people with the exception of Noosa and a little bit in Redcliffe cared about it.
Dennis Shanahan did his usual gushing over the Howards government buying votes last budget.
@Sandman
Who knows but is notable the greens PV has gone up from a stable 8% in newspoll in the last few iterations at the expense of the ALP
Nathan says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:53 pm
So you won’t be putting Labor above the Libs when you vote?
Im going to say 54/46
Great Aunt Eunice says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:40 pm
Upnorth, I hope that name of yours isn’t some sort of idle boast, sadly even the men 30 years my junior point downsouth, even with those blue pills.
As far as that Edward goes, he’s just after my real estate and my wardrobe. We in the family find it best just to ignore him at family get togethers, it’s just easier you’ll find.
========================
Aunt Eunice truthfully, I am idle most of the time, but I never boast. All the talk of “blue pills” has left a sour taste in my mouth. Upnorth is where men are men and sheep are nervous.
None of this Southern Mumbo Jumbo I can assure you.
Understand re Edward. I can assure you every family has them. I’m sure your wardrobe is most fitting for a fine “young” lady of your calibre.
What’s this “Albo’s disappeared” line suppose to mean?
I gather for the 7 or so days of isolation he is at his home, somewhere in Sydney….He is still there as far as I know….He has been on line and I suspect he is fully briefed on what is going on……………
More importantly, we know Morrison is around because he shows up where he thinks he can get the best photo shoot…….
Where else would I be other than pollbludger during an election campaign. Life is overrated anyway
Felix,
Everything is impossible until it happens. Who said that ? Nelson Mandela?
NZ had FPP then in 1992 it had MMP when people were thoroughly pissed at a minority/majority govt.
If Labor and Liberal don’t represent more than 1 in 3 people respectively its only a matter of time now.
Bring it on!
@JoM – Keating led Howard in the final poll PPM by 5 in 1996 – when Keating got his arse handed to him.
Have a look at Kevin Bonham’s extensive writings on PPM – shorthand – it’s a metric skewing to incumbents and for the OL to be ahead or close is a bad sign for the incumbent.
The preferred PM is usually the incumbent, and the incumbent usually wins. Howard won in 1996 without leading preferred PM, and it was pretty much tied in 1998.
Mr Bowe,
“Everyone in Mr Denmore’s Twitter feed says so. What more proof do you need?”
Better check with Andrew Elder, just to be sure.
It has been my contention since the beginning of this faux campaign, that has been going for over a year, that 95% of people have already made up their minds. Months ago. The only real question is how much the Teals are going to take from the ALP primary, with the sheer volume of them that will strategically vote in those contests, and yet have no overall effect anywhere else in the country.
I reckon there’s a good 1.5% of primary in there for the ALP strategic voters that will be voting for an independent in seats where the ALP has no chance of winning.
The LNP has already scraped the bottom of the barrel for the fringe crazy-town vote from 2019. The only thing they’re doing now, as they’re so far out on the fringe, is cannibalizing their own primary. With so few people under the age of 40 voting for the LNP, I’m not sure how they think they’re going to track back to where they used to be. And in case you all haven’t noticed re:covid, but an awful lot of old people are still getting covid and dying. That is the only cohort in which the LNP has an advantage.
CarefullyRushed @ Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:52 pm
Welcome and thank you for your posts.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:55 pm
@Sandman
Who knows but is notable the greens PV has gone up from a stable 8% in newspoll in the last few iterations at the expense of the ALP.
Thanks. Had a look at the 2016 -2019 poll data from WB. Looks like the Newspoll dawdled between 9 and 10% for the Greens and landed on 9% just before the 2019 election. The Greens got 10.3 % nationally IF anything Newspoll ever so slightly under estimated the Greens PV in 2016-2019 in the last 3-4 polls before the election. Maybe that jump recently from 10% to 12% will fall back into 10 % territory tonight.
Kevin also seemed to have Murdoch on his side in ’07.
They were only on his side because they realised the inevitability of Rudd winning and at least wanted to appear to be balanced
Scomo declined to meet new chinese ambasador…
Thanks @jt1983 and @williambowe
As for IPSOS and Coorey, we have had questions regarding which politicians will retire should Labor/Coalition win.
I am curious which journalists will retire? We had Fran Kelly, but somehow she returned when the election was announced. We also have Leigh Sales. Any others?
laughtongsays:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:10 pm
Tanya running rings around Jane Hume on the Project
______________
The definition of cruelty is sending Jane Hume out against Tanya Plibersek. Almost like the Liberal parliamentary men don’t like their women members to succeed…
Oh and Jane. Given the timeline on subs then wind back to 2002 and you’ll see who is to blame for your current mess.
Oh wait you wanted Labor in 2007-2013 to have saved your abject failures when you were in power for a decade before and after.
Guess a lot of people have fallen for that rubbish over many an election.
Shameless the whole lot of them.
I think in 6-10-15 years the ALP should be considering what it can do to negotiate a coalition style agreement with the greens. If labors 30% support through all age brackets is mixed with what looks to be a firm 15% that’s matriculating through the greens then there’s a way forward there that sidelines the conservative forces in the country. That’s if the Greens and ALP are able to eat up enough Lib/Nat seats and not have a zero sum fight over the same territory.
Honestly, I wouldn’t expect this to happen with this generation of pollies, but once climate change is in full swing and the third world war has settled there’ll be room for radical thinking.
But one thing I can be sure of is the people of Clarke will return their demigod Wilkie to his throne on the corss bench.
Who ran the strip club saga in 07?
Wasn’t the coverage of the 07 Budget that it was a Budget masterclass? I’m not sure the media were on Labor’s side for that one.
This being your second post this evening, you appear to be doing that already, Mr. Denmore.
jt1983 says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 8:00 pm
@JoM – Keating led Howard in the final poll PPM by 5 in 1996 – when Keating got his arse handed to him.
________________
I don’t think ending a 13 year run is having your arse handed to you.
Rudd, Gilllard, Abbott and Turnbull however received theirs on a platter.
Lnp out to 2.12 on sportsbet
Well, by now in 2019 the polls were shrinking to within the margin of error…. But so far it hasn’t been the case in 2022.
The chance of a Scomo “second miracle” is fast fading away……
🙂