Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

The latest Ipsos poll finds the Coalition yielding no measurable benefit from the first fortnight of the campaign, while Newspoll is effectively unchanged from a week agoi.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged from 53-47 a week ago, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady) and One Nation 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 54%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 38% and down one to 50%, with Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 44-37 to 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.

Also out this evening is the second Ipsos poll for the Financial Review finds no improvement in the Coalition’s position since its post-budget poll, continuing to credit Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45 based on 2019 preference flows after exclusion of the 8% undecided (otherwise Labor 50 and Coalition 42). Ipsos provides a further two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences that includes those undecided on either primary vote and preference choice as a separate component: this has Labor steady on 48%, the Coalition up one to 38% and undecided down one to 14%. After excluding 9% unaccounted for (7% undecided plus 2% not enrolled – the latter is no longer featured, perhaps reflecting the close of the rolls) in the previous poll and 8% for the current one, the primary votes have the Coalition up 0.7% to 34.8%, Labor down 1.5% to 37.0%, the Greens up 2.1% to 13.0%, One Nation steady at 4.3% and the United Australia Party up 1.1% to 3.3%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, his approval up one to 34% and disapproval steady at 48%. Anthony Albanese suffers little damage from his early campaign mishaps, with approval up one to 31% and disapproval up three to 35%. He maintains a lead as preferred prime minister of 40-38, out from 38-37. The pollster’s gender gaps remain substantial, with the Coalition’s primary vote six points lower among women than men, Labor’s two points lower and the Greens’ five point higher, respectively compared with three points, seven points and four points last time. Scott Morrison’s net approval rating is minus six among men, down from minus eight, and minus 19 among women, down from minus 22. Anthony Albanese also does worse among women (minus six net approval) than men (minus one). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a large sample of 2302.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,559 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

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  1. Jan says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:13 pm
    What is SHM’s full name??
    ==============
    I sense a theme.
    ========•••====
    Jan your awake and glad tidings. Hope your on the mend.

    Fire-Fox really made my day. Apparently today is International Day for Hyphenated Surnames. Apparently to be in the Greens you gotta have one!

    Now Fire-Fox knows he has me cackling so much me sides hurt. So he is drawing out the pain.

    Like William our Fire-Fox is a sly old dog.

  2. ‘Mavis says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:19 pm

    One of the first things an incoming Labor Attorney should do is to nolle the indictments presented against Collaery. Pepsy.’
    —————————–
    A full inquiry from woe back then to the follow up bastardization now, IMO.

  3. Thanks all!

    Given that climate change is becoming a big election issue, where people want action, surely accusing others of being The Greens isn’t the slur it once was?

    Asking as a swinging lefty…

  4. JayC @ #1389 Tuesday, April 26th, 2022 – 9:10 pm

    Cary/Freya, I was referring to this…

    This forum is great for comfortable middle class peeps with no skin in the game, comfortable/changeable views etc when things allegedly get tough for the party they profess to support (like when someone tells them Sportsbet has changed) the horror, the horror. Grow up and keep enjoying your franking credits

    You have less than zero idea who you are talking about here.

  5. Why would Ray Hadley be screaming about irregular maritime arrivals a decade or more ago? Presumably it goes down well with his audience. Why isn’t he screaming about guest workers taking Australian jobs? Why isn’t he screaming about asylum seekers arriving by plane? Why isn’t he screaming about over-staying backpackers? I’m sure it’s got nothing to do with the fact they they weren’t white (sarcasm sign).

    The whole “boats” thing is about racism. It’s as simple as that.

  6. Peter Stanton says:
    The problem with Dickson is that the most common language spoken in non English speaking households in Dickson is Africana.
    mj says:
    Peter do you mean Afrikaans?
    __________
    There are only two things I can’t stand in this world: People who are intolerant of other people’s cultures, and the Dutch.

  7. FMD it’s a different world up here! Everyone gets up at sparrow fart and goes to bed at like 7pm. And the weird churches – they are EVERYWHERE up here. And I’m staying in Moorooka – a quite left-wing area. Can’t begin to imagine what it’s like in the boon docks. It’s a different country.

    What are you on about?

    Come up to Annerley, it’s pumping to at last 9:30. You have 5 mins.

  8. Ven @ #1394 Tuesday, April 26th, 2022 – 9:16 pm


    Dsays:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 8:55 pm
    I missed this today!
    ABC
    Guide Dogs Victoria stands down CEO Karen Hayes for endorsing Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong
    4 hours ago

    She will be reinstated only if LNP wins the election.

    GDV said that she had deliberately misrepresented that organisation. They will sack her – just doing due diligence ad going through the process.

  9. I hope the Greens adopt that corflute design for their actual candidates.

    I’d be very happy if Pocock won too, and it’s fine that he’s independent. I just think the new corflutes are an improvement.

  10. [Greensborough Growlersays: Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:29 pm
    Return the family to Biloela.]
    The alp has announced they will – the lnp should never have been that cruel.

  11. Tassie: One candidate for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party has shared a number of conspiracy theories, including a post suggesting the Port Arthur massacre never happened.

  12. If Neville Newell married Gary Neville would his hyphenated name be Neville Newell-Neville? Or would he go with the catchier and simpler Neville Neville.

    He may then divorce Gary and marry Gary’s brother to become Neville Neville-Neville.

  13. “GDV said that she had deliberately misrepresented that organisation. They will sack her – just doing due diligence ad going through the process.”

    Really? If that is what is happening, they need to consider it or take legal advice, then the law is an ass, that is a res ipsa loquitur, the thing spoke for itself, it spoke clearly and loudly, it spoke days ago. Either they are dissembling or employment law is in disarray.

  14. Woke-pc-thug says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:31 pm

    [Greensborough Growlersays: Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:29 pm
    Return the family to Biloela.]
    The alp has announced they will – the lnp should never have been that cruel.
    __________________________
    Talk about cruel. I can never forget PM Julia Gillard rejecting the claims of Sri Lankan refugees.

    She was played footage of a little Sri Lankan girl in perfect English asking to be treated ‘ as a child of Australia’.

    She responded that the girl ‘was not a child of Australia’. It chilled me.

  15. woke,

    The discussion was around the first thing.

    Personally, I’d love Albo to announce it at his victory speech on Election night.

  16. Nah, it isn’t employment law, there is no need for a due diligence, they are deliberately dissembling, it was unambiguous and clear for obvious cause. Remember last election the Treasurers opponent got dismissed on the day as the Treasurers request, according to his story, for merely legitimately running for elected office. If they wanted her sacked she could have been sacked days ago. There is no excuse for not doing so.

  17. Steve777

    Net zero isn’t resting, it’s bleedin’ demised! Bereft of life, it has ceased to be. It’s shuffled off this mortal coil. If it hadn’t been nailed to the perch, it’d be pushing up the daisies. It’s fucking snuffed it!

    Beautiful plumage…

  18. Guykb,

    Some perspective – while in Moorooka, you are in the most linguistically diverse federal division in Qld.

  19. Yes UpN. I am better thanks. Two nights of the worst flulike symptoms I can remember ever having. There was a moment there I thought I might be in trouble with a stubborn temperate with a 4 in front of it, a v fast heart rate. But surprisingly not as wrecked now as I would be after a flu.

    I don’t recommend it. I shudder to think what may have happened unvaxed.

  20. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:38 pm

    Snappy Tom,

    It’s there, he said it and fuck him for being a racist!
    _____________
    Look who’s calling people racist!

  21. Interesting about Z Seselja. I am on very friendly terms with some of his extended family, and they are aware of my politics and the emphasis I put on our handling of refugees and for the most part seem happy to just indulge me. Last week I met up with one of them and he was quite perturbed by my previously stated opinions and told me that in times like these my reasons for not voting for Z were an indulgence the nation could not afford. When I mentioned Zs failure wrt the Chinese in SI he got very angry, the first time that has ever happened in several decades of friendship. Perhaps there is some tension in the clan over political fortunes.

    Interestingly I was told by a Croat mafia guy the other day that there has been a split in the Seselja clan over religion, some of them have gone over to one of the splinter groups like Seventh Day Adventist or some such, upsetting the Catholic majority. Im not sure what side Z has taken in this dispute, but note I havent seen him in Church for yonks.

    Zs corflutes which were so nemerous earlier seem very sparse now, as is mention of the ALP candidates.

  22. Where does Grace Grace fit in that story?
    ——————————-
    Graziella. Great name. Why anglicise it?

    My attempts at absurdist humour is a very very long way from Hellers Major Major Major Major. A book I refuse to read again lest it isn’t as good as I vaguely remember.

  23. Jan says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:33 pm
    If Neville Newell married Gary Neville would his hyphenated name be Neville Newell-Neville? Or would he go with the catchier and simpler Neville Neville.

    He may then divorce Gary and marry Gary’s brother to become Neville Neville-Neville.
    ======•====•===•==
    Well he can only run for the Greens if uses the hyphenated version. Glad to hear your on the mend Jan-Simon.

    Grace Grace has no hyphen so so good in the ALP and as a Trade Union Official.

  24. As I recall, the member for Dickson was pressing the cause of white South African and Zimbabwean farmers for admission to Australia as refugees. Now, of course, any application from South Africans or Zimbabweans, be they white or of any other ethnic background, for immigration to Australia as refugees or as part of any other program, should be considered on their merits. However, it is a bit odd that the member for Dickson seems totally unconcerned about the plight of those in Afghanistan desperate to escape, especially those who supported Australia[s efforts during our two-decade long involvement there.

    Oh right, I forgot. They’re not white and they’re Muslim.

  25. Most common first name of senate candidates is Steve/Steven/Stephen and David/Dave both with 9. I hit sort on the wrong column in excel.

  26. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, April 26, 2022 at 9:44 pm

    nath,

    I’ve got you babe!
    ________
    That’s a song from the 60s. Which was the last time you updated your wardrobe.

  27. “If the RBA lifts the interest rate, how do you all think this would affect the election if at all?”

    Bit hard to say.

    Libs will claim it would have been worse under the ALP…..Taxes, Carbon Tax, Boats, Yellow Peril, House Values will Fall and you will all have a Penniless Old Age…….Shrill Hysterics to put the fighteners on people.

    ALP will come back with a degree of calm i think. Action on Climate change to Support Jobs, Acceptance that Interest Rates will likely go up again but the ALP will Support People not Liberal Donor Mates with Rorts, Housing Becoming more Affordable over Time, Sustainable Wage Growth and more Jobs to alleviate cost of Living…..

    With a bit of though i think ALP can tell a more reassuring and plausible tale if interest rates do go up. Libs will panic and spin.

  28. An RBA rate rise next Tuesday would surely be absolutely the last nail in LNP coffin.
    —————————-
    Morrison would be ready with ‘it’s a sign of a strong economy’ and the MSM would nod in sage agreement. But people and families with stagnant wages and mortgages will be all to aware of what increasing interests rates will mean to their bottom line.

  29. Mr Mysterious @ #1424 Tuesday, April 26th, 2022 – 9:40 pm

    If the RBA lifts the interest rate, how do you all think this would affect the election if at all?

    Voters punish whomever’s charge for things that hurt them. A rate hike will hurt a lot of them. The Coalition is in charge.

    Large gain to Labor as long as they don’t do something stupid like say “it’s good that your mortgage just got more expensive”.

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