Federal election minus 30 days

An audience of undecided voters offers a fairly even verdict following last night’s leaders debate, plus sundry other pieces of polling news and campaign detritus.

Polling and other horse race news:

• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.

• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.

The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.

• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.

• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.

Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.

Nice-looking things on other websites:

• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.

• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.

• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.

• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.

Everything else:

• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.

• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.

• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.

Also:

• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,162 comments on “Federal election minus 30 days”

Comments Page 8 of 24
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  1. jt1983

    “ This idea about woke/PC is a lot more complicated than the DT – 50 year old bloke demo thinks it is. Like it or not, what is considered by some to be ‘woke’ is increasingly accepted by the mainstream, just as a consequence of time and repetition. Think about what was considered fringe etc 20 years ago, then consider if those things are considered such now? The framing and goal posts are constantly shifting.”

    Exactly, it’s called evolution and some within our species are slower at evolving than others but in the end, they will evolve or die out. PC is about saying what you want but in a manner that isn’t hurtful or demeaning to others. Surely a Christian such as Morrison can see that simply by reading the bible. It seems to me that PC, in terms of values, has very strong links to Christianity as espoused by Jesus.

    Deves on the other hand is simply spouting hatred and division, the opposite of Jesus’ teachings.

  2. Yabba
    I think what there trying to say is,you can be a lucky fuck…..or you can get a lucky fuck……..or you can get a sympathy fuck…..

    But overall your still just a ……fucker. Does that make sense

  3. TPOF: “The issue was about her and her circumstances and what he as PM could/should be able to do about it. Instead he turned the focus to himself because he simply lacks empathy and self-awareness.”

    Far be it for me to want to excuse ScoMo, but I think he was trying – in an extremely clumsy way – to tell the woman that he could only imagine what she was going through, given that this wasn’t something with which he had had any personal experience.

    I don’t think it’s self-absorption so much as a tendency to evangelize. Like professional preachers, ScoMo is inclined to try to find a link between his own life and that of the people who is addressing. You will note that he also asked the lady what was her son’s name, so that he could then start refer to him as “Ethan” rather than your son. It’s exactly what Billy Graham used to do when people asked him to intercede with God on their behalf: “what’s your name darling?”, “what’s your son’s name?”, “how old are you”, “Oh lord, young Chuck and his mother Eustacia have accepted the gift of your salvation and I ask that you to give to them of the treasure of your mercies, yada yada yada…”

    Sometimes ScoMo’s efforts to make these connections are successful, and he makes people feel like they can relate to him. Other times (perhaps more often than not), his efforts go off the rails and he comes across as a rather smarmy sort of gumby: as was the case last night.

    That’s ScoMo for you. If Billy Graham were still with us, I might entreat him to ask God to make sure he doesn’t send us another one.

  4. Bernard Hermann, composer, got a run last night. (His father was Ukrainian). He sure was a prolific film scorer, but he wrote one opera: Wuthering Heights. Its initial recording starred Morag Beaton (there’s a name), a fabulous Scottish soprano who came to Australia in the early 60s when the Sutherland and Travelling Circus came to town, she (Joan) now a huge world name. Anyway, Morag Beaton stayed, and sang on. I heard she ended her days selling hats at DJs.

    Beaton was the first opera voice I ever heard live, ’65 I think, student subscription at the grand old Tivoli (near Central, razed by developers and still a vacant block by the railway line), a vast huge vaudeville theatre.

    I was in the nose bleeds, and don’t remember much except for Turandot the Chinese Princess’s peacock feather train, and Ms Beaton’s very large mouth, the kind that made you fear for the front few rows as she took her next huge breath in. That and my psychology tutor Miss B’s fullsom bosom in a tight knitted sweater.

    Here she is a Catherine, in Wuthering Heights:
    – I have been wandering
    – Look at the moon
    – It’s Christmas now

    https://youtu.be/0nV5DytV-2g

    And if that doesn’t rock your boat, there’s always:

    https://youtu.be/Fk-4lXLM34g

  5. P1: “Electricity prices in Australia are about 25% higher than electricity prices in Singapore.”

    And our energy distribution network is 1000x+ the size of Singapore’s.

  6. Rex Douglas

    “ BREAKING: This is huge. Ben Roberts-Smith’s key witness, an ex SAS soldier implicated in alleged war crimes/target of Brereton Inquiry, just revealed 7 Network has been paying his legal fees. Why is listed media company using shareholder funds for this? Big q’s for Kerry Stokes.”

    Is there not a potential conflict of interest with Stokes paying the costs for both the plaintiff and a witness for the plaintiff? Perhaps I’m missing something and all is appropriate (I’m a bit legally naïve).

  7. MB, you appear expert on everything Labor, including the personal lives of Tim Holding and Paul Keating

    Akin to my former wife who knew everything about every one else’s lives but nothing about what was going on in her own backyard.

    Perhaps you could dedicate your time to a summary of the leadership changes in the Liberal Party since Menzies – and where the Liberal Party finds itself today, a Party which gives rise to splinter groups courtesy of such as Chipp, Steele Hall, Millhouse, Katter, Hanson, Palmer, Bernardi et al?

    And the Independents holding former Coalition seats, before you get to the so called “Teals”?

    Plus where the religious right and IPA influence has come from – and courtesy of who exactly?

    Where are the “small l” Liberals such as Chaney, McPhee, Georgiou et al?

  8. 》Electricity prices in Australia are about 25% higher than electricity prices in Singapore. It is not only economically stupid to sell this electricity in Singapore rather than sell it in Australia and make more money,

    If the cost of getting the power from where they are building the solar farm to the east coast of Australia is greater then it is better to take it too Singapore

    And are you comparing retail pricing or the wholesale pricing which is what they would actually get?

  9. Cronus @ #334 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:00 pm

    Snappy Tom

    “ I’m enjoying the Morrison/Dutton contortions on national security…
    ‘We fucked up on the Solomons/China deal, therefore Labor can’t be trusted on national security.’
    Do I have that right?

    That’s the crux of it, entirely illogical. And if anybody wants a large coat hanger shaped bridge I’ve got one for sale going cheap.

    It’s up there with Morrison saying Labor might start the big social programmes, like Medicare and NDIS, but they cant manage them financially, only we the Libs can manage them financially, by dismantling them.

  10. Meher at 12.15

    Morrison is the Prime Minister and politician, not a preacher. The questioner was not looking for empathy but actual help from someone who had the power to provide that help (unlike a preacher who can only offer a tenuous connection to a higher power, Morrison in this case is the higher power).

    I have not the slightest interest in the religious aspect. In the context of last night, the mother asked a political question of high relevance to her and, more importantly, many people like her. She was not looking for empathy or connection but action.

    Edited to add that Morrison’s whole MO is to substitute practical assistance with faux empathy and empty promises and this is what was displayed with his incredibly gauche response. The rest of the answer was a babble of fatuous words about how much the Coalition government loves the NDIS.

  11. Snappy Tom

    Anyway, its all a foolish bureaucratisation. In the Orthodox Churches, there is no ‘process’ – over a long period of time, people become recognised as ‘saints.’

    We Protestants have a simple solution: we’re all saints, which possibly explains why we’re all so boring.
    ———-
    You must surely know that what Catholics/Orthodox mean by Saints (capital S) is quite different from the “we’re all saints” of the Protestants.

    Yes, early Saints were ’made’ through community recognition. Hence most Saints are ‘local’. The Latins have always been more prone to precision and regimentation (control?) than the Greeks and to weed out the dubious tend to “foolish bureaucratisation”. 🙂

  12. Catprog: “If the cost of getting the power from where they are building the solar farm to the east coast of Australia is greater then it is better to take it too Singapore”

    Narrator: It is.

    The fact is, Australia is already powering into renewables in spite of a federal government doing everything in their power to stop them.

    https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=all&interval=1y

    If the LNP hadn’t turned back progress in 2013, as is evident on that graph, we’d be even further along in the transition.

  13. Just goes to show MB charity comes in all shapes and sizes.

    Sometimes I wish I could get some charity…….

    Had 4 th booster yesterday…… 2 astra. 1moderna …1 Pfizer.

    And of to Singapore for 2 weeks next Wednesday……..ahh the joys of flying again. Not

  14. Despite ltep’s tiresome defence of Morrison, it’s a PR disaster for them.

    Bushfire victims? Too busy in Hawaii. I don’t hold a hose after all.
    Flood victims? Pack of whingers.
    JobKeeper rorts? It’s unAustralian to ask Gerry Harvey and Solomon Lew for it back.
    Vaccine procurement? Front of the queue, except when we weren’t.

    It’s a consistent pattern of someone who doesn’t care about anyone but himself.

  15. I wonder if there’s some threshold beyond which the media abandon or at least soften their hostility towards Labor just in case they do win?

  16. @Player One 12:13pm:

    Selling electricity Singapore and selling electricity to Australians are not mutually exclusive options; with the right policy settings you can do both.

    There is ample capacity to generate more than enough electricity from renewables (solar, wind, large scale lithium-ion batteries –> green hydrogen as well as cabling to near neighbours like Singapore) to service Australia and also sell it as an export earner, it’s just a matter of having enabling policies and time.

  17. Morrison’s comments still gaining traction this afternoon on most media platforms.

    Current Australian of the Year Dylan Alcott also tweeted about the remarks.

    “Woke up this morning feeling very blessed to be disabled — I reckon my parents are pretty happy about it too,” he said.

    “Feeling sorry for us and our families doesn’t help. Treating us equally, and giving us the choice and control over our own lives does.”

    Intentional or not, he just doesn’t get it. It’s probably not surprising for transactional individuals.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/scott-morrison-criticised-disability-comments-leaders-debate/101004108

  18. ItzaDream @ #360 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:25 pm

    Cronus @ #334 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:00 pm

    Snappy Tom

    “ I’m enjoying the Morrison/Dutton contortions on national security…
    ‘We fucked up on the Solomons/China deal, therefore Labor can’t be trusted on national security.’
    Do I have that right?

    That’s the crux of it, entirely illogical. And if anybody wants a large coat hanger shaped bridge I’ve got one for sale going cheap.

    It’s up there with Morrison saying Labor might start the big social programmes, like Medicare and NDIS, but they cant manage them financially, only we the Libs can manage them financially, by dismantling them.

    Oh right, well they’ve stuffed the rollout of the NDIS and the NBN and Labor successfully implemented and ran Medicare for more than a decade before going into opposition. So what is Scotty talking about.

  19. Pi says:
    Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 12:25 pm
    here we go again, and Craig Kelly.

    Left Campbell Newman off the list – but then everyone else seems too.

    Think his “fall from grace” has been after and deeper than the Rat Latham.

  20. “Player Onesays:
    Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 12:13 pm
    Anthony Albanese:

    My big thing is taking clean energy and using that to bring back manufacturing to this country, and to have Australia become a renewable energy superpower. That clean energy to drive jobs and advanced manufacturing. Jobs that exist for domestic purposes, but also export. We see in the Sun Cable project, to get an example. An opportunity that’s there. Sun Cable project gave Australia renewable energy, solar energy, powering Singapore. Powering Singapore. An extraordinary project. We have an incredible opportunity to make more things here and in coming days, hopefully you will be with us, we will be visiting places where we want to make more things here.

    Electricity prices in Australia are about 25% higher than electricity prices in Singapore. It is not only economically stupid to sell this electricity in Singapore rather than sell it in Australia and make more money, it is also mind-bogglingly brain-dead to claim we would be a “renewable energy superpower” because we generate electricity using renewables here and then sell it to Singapore but continue to burn fossil fuels to generate our own electricity here in Australia.

    FFS ”

    Derp Derp. De Derp derp derp, dumb dumb

    How do you think the NT would go about exporting this energy to south/east of the country it is not connected to?

    Also, this is solar power that is being sent to singapore.

    How dumb are you?

  21. “who are now going for the second crack at a “death tax” scare campaign”

    Exactly the same Murdoch hacks who are crying about Labors attacks on the cashless debit card which Anne Ruston has publicly said they will look to expand it. Are the same ones who go quiet on the “death tax campaign”.

    Oh, and one other thing. The Morrison government successfully crapped on Labor’s Franking Credits policy calling it a ‘retiree tax’. Once again you don’t hear anything from the Murdoch stooges calling this out.

    Poor diddums.

  22. Mark says:
    Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 12:32 pm
    There is ample capacity to generate more than enough electricity from renewables (solar, wind, large scale lithium-ion batteries –> green hydrogen as well as cabling to near neighbours like Singapore) to service Australia and also sell it as an export earner, it’s just a matter of having enabling policies and time.

    I recall recently the huge proposed renewables hub and Singapore export project in NW WA was knocked back by the federal environment minister. I lived in the Pilbara for 5 years, and know the proposed location. Flat and empty. Almost entirely featureless. Meanwhile on the Burrup, which is home to the largest concentration of Aboriginal rock art anywhere in Australia, and is generally just a wonder, Woodside and their mates get whatever they want.

  23. Cronus: “PC is about saying what you want but in a manner that isn’t hurtful or demeaning to others.”

    Now come on, you known that there’s a fair bit more to the woke/PC stuff than this. Or, at least, the proponents have greatly expanded the definition of “hurtful or demeaning” beyond what most people would have previously considered those words to mean.

    I grew up in an era when great works of literature were still banned in Australia because they were felt by someone in a position of authority to be “offensive.” I don’t think someone being offended by the voice of another person gives them the right to try to silence that voice.

  24. I see that once again there’s some serious dreaming happening on here today about what a hung parliament could mean for climate action. So here’s the reality. In the event of a hung parliament, the Coalition will not deal on climate change. First, there are simply too many in the Liberal Party who do not even accept that climate change is real, let alone want to do anything about it. They have been dragged kicking and screaming to their current position, which is, of course, doing very little. But even if the Liberals did want to do a climate deal, there’s the Nationals. The idea that the Nationals could or would even give a thought to signing up to a climate change deal with inner city independents from wealthy electorates is several bridges too far to be believable. They would rightly see such a deal as an existential threat to their party. So the idea of any such deal is a non starter. So that leaves Labor. Labor will be ruthless in avoiding the mistakes of 2010, and will not go any further on climate than they are proposing to do at this election. Ever since the last hung parliament, the Coalition have been able to successfully tie Labor to the Greens in the minds of too many voters in too many important areas of the country. The 2010 hung parliament is something Labor is still trying to recover from, and certainly won’t repeat the same mistakes. Finally, there’s the Senate. While I can’t claim to have looked at the Senate situation closely, it seems unlikely to me that if the election ends up close enough to bring about a hung parliament, that there will be a majority in the Senate for any big change in climate policy.

    In the event of a hung parliament, I see it playing out that members of the cross bench will have to make a decision based on what both major parties have put on the table at the election. Of course, it is possible that both major parties may choose to attempt electorate level deals, i.e throw some pork the way of the cross bench, but beyond that, I think those thinking that a hung parliament means partying like it’s 2010 on climate change are in for a big let down. What this means in reality is, that the best way to get lasting climate action, support for renewables etc, is most certainly not through a hung parliament which will mean more of the same; it is through a Labor government with a healthy majority.

  25. Hollie Hughes (bless her) adds to the confusion:

    Senator Hughes said there was an “almost permanent rage machine” lying underneath the disability community and, since the introduction of the NDIS, “they had to find somewhere else to direct their rage”.

    Ok, so it’s the fault of the disability community, got it. That explains everything then. Next thing she’ll be telling them they’ve never had it so good and to stop complaining.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/scott-morrison-criticised-disability-comments-leaders-debate/101004108


  26. Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:21 am
    Here’s an interesting fact:

    The Head of Sky News – was the COS to Luke Foley and many decades earlier worked for the SA ALP.

    There is obv a crazy right wing opinion overlay to it. Reminiscent of Fox News I guess.

    Lars
    What you are trying to since yesterday is that the brainy RWNJs are ex-Labor. Interesting! 🙂
    Like the ‘blessed’ imputation the other side of the coin goes without saying. 🙂

  27. There’s nothing Morrison can do about the fiasco in the Solomon Islands. The treaty was signed as a deliberate rebuff to Morrison. It was payback for his high-handed behaviour to our Pacific neighbours. Our intelligence fraternity knew it was coming; Morrison could do nothing about it. And chose to do nothing about it.

    Marise Payne was not sent to the Solomons because it would have been a waste of time and failure would not have looked good for her.

    But every cloud has a silver lining. Canberrans probably didn’t know that Zed Seselja was a minister (of sorts). His hasty, belated mission to the Solomons may well have done his standing some good in the electorate. Bad luck that his juniority was further demeaning to the Solomons.

  28. *Sensible comments alert*

    John Delmenico
    @thebigjohnnyd
    · 2h
    Discussions around disability often is presented through the lenses of abled people. My disability is not a curse, nor is it a blessing for others. My existence does not hold its value based on how I make abled people feel. Change can’t happen until we are seen as people.

    Grace Tame
    @TamePunk
    ·
    1h
    We live in a world wherein the odds are stacked against disabled and abused people, governed—for the most part—by abled people who haven’t been abused.

    Solutions are typically designed by those with no lived experience, who are ignorant of our needs.

    We need equality, not pity.


  29. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:24 am
    Regarding Morrison,

    Leanne Tonkes
    @leannetonkes
    Replying to
    @TamePunk
    It’s still unclear to me if he’s
    1. tactless
    2. ignorant
    3. insulting
    4. cruel
    5. all of the above

    I want to give the benefit of doubt and say would say 1 and 2. 🙂

  30. “Player Onesays:
    Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 12:38 pm
    Pi @ #358 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:19 pm

    P1: “Electricity prices in Australia are about 25% higher than electricity prices in Singapore.”

    And our energy distribution network is 1000x+ the size of Singapore’s.

    But that is already built. The Sun Cable is not.”

    Seriously, you are so so dumb! You’re still responding to this!

    We are literally exporting NT space and sun to Singapore….there is no fucking pipeline from darwin to the national energy market.

    You are wailing on the worlds largest solar energy project. There is no relevant limit to the amount of solar energy….dat’s why dey call i renewable

    FMD!!!! Derp derp!

  31. I disagree matt31 – there are a lot of Labor frontbenchers for whom this election is the last chance saloon. They are unlikely to get a shot at a ministry in 2025.

    The desire for preferment will see Labor line up with the Greens and the necessary independents on May 22 to get the necessary deal done.

    I’d expect the Coalition will (aided by News Corp) go into attack mode looking to put the new Govt under siege asap. After all it worked last time – aided by the putsch against Rudd.

  32. Crikey has an article about the LNP bullshit talk about “tough on China”, including this paragraph;

    “In fact, far from being tough on China, Morrison, Dutton and church mouse Foreign Minister Marise Payne have spectacularly failed, allowing the establishment of a Chinese base in the Pacific — and had no clue it was happening until a draft agreement was leaked on social media”.

  33. mundo at 12.31pm

    Believe it or not, I think the Murdochracy has been fractionally less anti-Labor (or maybe just less anti-Albo) this time, in comparison to 2019.

    Andrew Bolt declared Albo the winner of last night’s debate, for goodness’ sake.

    The preliminary (final results post-May 21) Snappy Rabid Bias award for the 2022 goes to…the ABC!

    I do expect a fractional softening in the media should a Labor victory become highly likely (its already ‘likely’ but the lamestream media are working had to fix that).

    IF (usual caveats about not tempting fate) Labor forms govt, I would then expect a brief honeymoon period (the smaller the Labor majority, the briefer) during which Albo is an empathetic, everyman campaigning genius who outfoxed Morrison etc.

    After that, any and every Labor misstep in govt will be turned into Pink Batts on steroids, with the object of a single term govt.

  34. P1: “But that is already built. The Sun Cable is not.”

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-boasts-830bn-pipeline-of-wind-solar-hydrogen-and-storage-projects/

    “Australia boasts $830bn pipeline of wind, solar, hydrogen and storage projects”

    If you don’t know anything about a subject, the trick is to try and learn about it first, before confidently talking about it. Personally, I reckon they’re still under-predicting, just like they have been consistently doing so for the past 10 years. The renewables revolution is gaining speed, not slowing. Even five years ago the ‘Step Change’ scenario was thought ‘pie in the sky’. Now it’s accepted as the most likely outcome, and the ‘hydrogen superpower’ scenario is the second most likely. The thing that’s happening now is the build-out of the transmission infrastructure.

  35. Matt31 @ #380 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:37 pm

    I see that once again there’s some serious dreaming happening on here today about what a hung parliament could mean for climate action. So here’s the reality. In the event of a hung parliament, the Coalition will not deal on climate change. First, there are simply too many in the Liberal Party who do not even accept that climate change is real, let alone want to do anything about it. They have been dragged kicking and screaming to their current position, which is, of course, doing very little. But even if the Liberals did want to do a climate deal, there’s the Nationals. The idea that the Nationals could or would even give a thought to signing up to a climate change deal with inner city independents from wealthy electorates is several bridges too far to be believable. They would rightly see such a deal as an existential threat to their party. So the idea of any such deal is a non starter. So that leaves Labor. Labor will be ruthless in avoiding the mistakes of 2010, and will not go any further on climate than they are proposing to do at this election. Ever since the last hung parliament, the Coalition have been able to successfully tie Labor to the Greens in the minds of too many voters in too many important areas of the country. The 2010 hung parliament is something Labor is still trying to recover from, and certainly won’t repeat the same mistakes. Finally, there’s the Senate. While I can’t claim to have looked at the Senate situation closely, it seems unlikely to me that if the election ends up close enough to bring about a hung parliament, that there will be a majority in the Senate for any big change in climate policy.

    In the event of a hung parliament, I see it playing out that members of the cross bench will have to make a decision based on what both major parties have put on the table at the election. Of course, it is possible that both major parties may choose to attempt electorate level deals, i.e throw some pork the way of the cross bench, but beyond that, I think those thinking that a hung parliament means partying like it’s 2010 on climate change are in for a big let down. What this means in reality is, that the best way to get lasting climate action, support for renewables etc, is most certainly not through a hung parliament which will mean more of the same; it is through a Labor government with a healthy majority.

    That’s just giving in to the fossil fuel cartel.

    It’s weak-minded and it’s failing future generations.

    Now is the time to leave traditional voting habits at the door and vote to install reps who are strong-minded on climate/energy reform.


  36. yabbasays:
    Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:30 am
    Graham @ #83 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 8:37 am

    For those curious I’m a pentecostal labour voter

    In other words, you have seriously compromised thought processes, based on the assumption that myths are true, and a belief that the universe is about 7,000 years old, and that some time quite soon you are going to fly up into the sky. How sweet!

    Yabba
    Can you please shut up with your fundamentalist atheism and keep it to yourself.

  37. The biggest mistake in the campaign so far was the decision to start so far out from election day. As each day goes by, the truth about Morrison and his incompetents becomes more and more apparent.

  38. Cronus posted
    PC is about saying what you want but in a manner that isn’t hurtful or demeaning to others.

    It would be really great if that were true. But it isn’t. A lot of the Woke/PC stuff we see these days is deliberately designed by its adherents to be as hurtful, disrespectful and demeaning as possible to those who have the temerity to question some of its basic tenets. Even on this blog we see evidence of that almost every day.

  39. Andrew Bolt declared Albo the winner of last night’s debate, for goodness’ sake.

    Ahh, nobody should buy that. That’s just his way of suckering in some Labor supporters to boost his ratings. They won’t fall for it.

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