Polling and other horse race news:
• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.
• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.
• The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.
• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.
• Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.
Nice-looking things on other websites:
• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.
• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.
• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.
Everything else:
• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.
• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.
• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.
Also:
• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.
https://twitter.com/sspencer_63/status/1516742906119585795
The incompetence of this LNP Government is almost beyond belief. They make themselves out to be mighty military strategists preparing us for approaching threats. The reality is quite the opposite.
They cut support to Pacific Island nations and make jokes about rising sea levels lapping at their doors. They go out of their way to insult the Chinese at the behest of Trump and then refuse to change their tune when he is given the boot. The Solomon Island Government turns to China for support and surprise surprise, the Chinese offer it. The Solomon Island Opposition Leader warned Australia as to what was going on last August and they ignored him.
Australia, like other nations, has agreed to hold strategic reserves of fuel. That managerial genius and Rhodes Scholar Angus Taylor decides to announce that Australia will store their fuel reserve in the United States. Is it really there?
Military campaigns require enormous amounts of fuel. Recall the pictures of stalled Russian convoys that had no fuel and the targeting of fuel trucks by the Ukranians. It is now possible that the Chinese will be able to easily operate submarines from a base adjacent to the sea lane between here and the US, presumably our source of the enormous amount of fuel oil for ships, diesel for land based vehicles, and jet fuel for the Air Force. Oil tankers are very large and relatively slow moving, a submarine captain’s target of choice.
Thanks C@t.
Nice ABC article on the baseless cashless debit card scare campaign:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/how-facebook-post-fuelled-cashless-debit-card-scare-campaign/101003548
Cronus
Spot on!!
Cronus @ #298 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 9:38 am
One problem with this is that she didn’t say it on just one day, she has repeatedly made similar comments.
A leaked email to Liberal members in Canberra has revealed the “astroturfing” techniques being used to support Liberal senator Zed Seselja in the ACT senate race, including requests to write to The Canberra Times.
In an attempt to fake grassroots support, the campaign of Liberal Senator Zed Seselja has written to members asking them to consider writing a letter to the Editor of The Canberra Times about the push to decriminalise hard drugs.
The email also urges members to “support Zed” on social media by commenting on and liking his posts, as well as a request to host a staked corflute in the front yard.
Senator Seselja is under threat in the ACT senate race from a challenge by former Wallabies captain and independent candidate David Pocock.
A mad scramble is now on between Mr Pocock, fellow independent Kim Rubenstein and the Greens’ Tjanara Goreng Goreng to become the main challenger to the ACT’s political status quo; the two seats have been returned to the Liberal and Labor parties since 1975.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7707255/
anyone have any inside goss on what’s going on in Oxley?
Snappy Tom @ #291 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 11:34 am
Whew! That’s a blessed relief. I was fucking worried, I can tell you.
meher baba at 11.34am
Here is an article describing the 5 step process of Mother Theresa becoming a saint (at least in terms of the Roman Catholic Church)…
https://www.ajc.com/news/national/mother-teresa-and-sainthood-here-are-the-steps-getting-there/0qCC1tpK3pQbhUzcAm5A1L/
I’m going to assume the journalist wrote it with a straight face…but I’m not sure.
I note step 1 is ‘Die’, for example.
Becoming ‘Blessed’ is step 4.
Anyway, its all a foolish bureaucratisation. In the Orthodox Churches, there is no ‘process’ – over a long period of time, people become recognised as ‘saints.’
We Protestants have a simple solution: we’re all saints, which possibly explains why we’re all so boring.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #297 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 11:37 am
The outcome is electing the people who will decide who forms government. Along with the Governor-General, of course.
100 undecided voters, presumably picked by Skew News…
…where did they look for them? Dalkeith & Peppermint Grove?
@Snappy Tom: If we’re all Saints, then why does the world suck so much?
When Morrison talks about people being fed up with walking on egg shells someone should ask him why hasn’t he changed the laws he thinks are the problem or is he just talking shit.
As others have already touched upon it, the word “blessed” is open to interpretation and under normal conversation circumstances would go unnoticed….
However, Mr Morrison via the West newspaper was said to be “coming to keep the faith” (few days ago), won an election because it was a “Miracle” and was it just a few days ago there was a symbolic “laying of hands” picture of Morrison with some kid?
He can’t have it both ways……..
The cynics may be wrong about his intentions and overplay it but that is cynicism for you………………………………………
I respect Morrison’s beliefs and his entitlement to use these beliefs as part of his persona….However, it is a two-edged sword….Bit like using your kids as a Pollie to show you are a good family man, then scream blue murder if, at some time, one of these kids get into some kind of trouble as an intrusion into the privacy of said Pollie…….
Pi @ #300 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 9:39 am
So it’s the Liberals who have silenced her. 😆
Semantics about wordsmithing aside, here’s the thing about Morrison’s comments last night re the lady with an autistic son: it’s not about him therefore there was simply no need for him to comment about his circumstances, they’re irrelevant.
The issue was about her and her circumstances and what he as PM could/should be able to do about it. Instead he turned the focus to himself because he simply lacks empathy and self-awareness.
Yabba at 11.41am
No wukkas.
Actual a highlight of my senior high school days was on Yr 12 Muck Up Day.
One girl came to school wearing a t-shirt with ‘No Wucking Furries’ on it.
The school principal was my fundamentalist church youth group leader.
I shat myself laughing – on the inside.
Totally with you on that one Itep and it never ceases to amaze me how many people here actually believe it is. I would have thought that after so many Labor losses that message would have seeped through by now.
Boerwar @ #286 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 11:27 am
Minority Govts go okay in other countries.
But I get that the old establishment in Australia love a good scare campaign and want to keep on keeping on.
Djokovic is now very upset that Wimbledon has banned players from Russia and Belarus from competing due to invasion of Ukraine.
He doesnt think it is fair that players are being punished for the actions of their govt.
It would be nice if he was more concerned with the plight of Ukrainians.
I like this guy even less than I already did.
ItzaDream: ““no saint” could be misconstrued. “Well on the way to Sainthood”, just a miracle or two short, would cover it I think, as you suggest with ‘not yet’.”
I have a very vague recollection of a Catholic in-joke about a priest referring to one of his colleagues as “the blessed Father such-and-such” and, when asked why he referred to him as such, replied “well he’s not exactly a saint!”
Wokism and pc are not vote winner but that is because many people pushing those issues then impose forms of discrimination and that is the real turn off.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #306 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 11:41 am
As if taking things down from facebook or whatever, and apologising, *after* you’v been called out means anything. As the old saying goes: “it’s the thought that counts”.
“Player Onesays:
The outcome of the election would be known. It is only who would form government that would still be in doubt.
I am always astonished how poorly some people seem to understand our electoral system. ”
Jesus christ, it’s the Dunning Krueger god stone!
Happy birthday BK
Ideally we should be giving YOU a nice present. After all, you give US one every single day.
So, 25% of the audience last night weren’t convinced by the establishment.
The times are a changin’….
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 11:45 am
Semantics about wordsmithing aside, here’s the thing about Morrison’s comments last night re the lady with an autistic son: it’s not about him therefore there was simply no need for him to comment about his circumstances, they’re irrelevant.
The issue was about her and her circumstances and what he as PM could/should be able to do about it. Instead he turned the focus to himself because he simply lacks empathy and self-awareness.
_________________________________
Indeed. In fact it was less about her than about the needs of her son.
Matt at 11.45am
“@Snappy Tom: If we’re all Saints, then why does the world suck so much?”
Ah, Grasshopper…a few things…
1) In Protestant theology being a ‘saint’ doesn’t imply special moral character. It is about being set apart for a purpose (which sounds a bit creepy even as I slowly type it.) Martin Luther declared ‘I am at the same time saint and sinner!’ People (including Protestants) shy away from the saint bit and the sinner bit.
2) I once said to a lecturer at theological college ‘There’s a difference between psychological and theological guilt.’ He agreed. Also, neither of us have really been able to articulate what I meant. I think ‘sin’ simply means human beings have ‘flaws’ – which means we have all sorts of vulnerabilities to pursuing choices that stuff the world up, all while not feeling like evil persons.
3) At the beginning of the Extended Version of The Fellowship of the Ring, Cate Blanchett’s character narrates the scene from pre-history where an alliance of peoples defeat the Dark Lord, and their king has an opportunity to destroy the Ring that has led to such destruction, but men ‘above all things, desire power.’
I think that spiel is as good a reflection as any on the human condition.
Ugh, such a serious post! Camel, anyone?
Rex Douglas @ #320 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 11:49 am
Shhh, Rex! You’ll scare the children.
With all this talk of religion today greetings from the “City of Angels”.
Happy Birthday #Bangkok! Today is the 240th anniversary of the founding of Krungthep Mahanakhon – The City of Angels.
Bangkok also has its first election in about 6 years for Governor on May 22. So Upnorth needs double the popcorn.
Strong tip is (like Morrison) is that the PM is on the nose big time. For Thais it’s cost of living pressure. I think that’s a massive issue back home too.
Looks like a candidate strongly associated with former PM’s Thaksin, and his better looking sister Yingluck, who were both replaced by Military coups, might get up. This is a big upset in BKK because it’s the power base of the ruling party.
It is a Melbourne Cup field though.
This idea about woke/PC is a lot more complicated than the DT – 50 year old bloke demo thinks it is.
Like it or not, what is considered by some to be ‘woke’ is increasingly accepted by the mainstream, just as a consequence of time and repetition.
Think about what was considered fringe etc 20 years ago, then consider if those things are considered such now? The framing and goal posts are constantly shifting.
U.S. COVID update: Weekly hospital figures rising for the first time since January
– New cases: 78,025 ………………………………… – New deaths: 656
– States reporting: 41/50
– In hospital: 13,943 (+439)
– In ICU: 1,794 (+3)
1,017,093 total deaths now
Snappy Tom
“ I’m enjoying the Morrison/Dutton contortions on national security…
‘We fucked up on the Solomons/China deal, therefore Labor can’t be trusted on national security.’
Do I have that right?
That’s the crux of it, entirely illogical. And if anybody wants a large coat hanger shaped bridge I’ve got one for sale going cheap.
A Dylan Alcott ace…
Crikey is onto their hypocracy;
“Scott Morrison promised to improve online safety. How about dealing with Katherine Deves’ transphobia on social media?
During the leaders’ debate, Scott Morrison touted his online safety credentials. Meanwhile, he backs a candidate who used social media to demonise trans people”.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/04/21/scott-morrison-online-safety-katherine-deves/?utm_source=pushengage&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=pn
Blessed will be Morrisons’ concession speech!
Someone referred to the economic growth thru the 2000’s
a) The amount we owed to our home mortgage lenders increased from $335 Billion in January 2000 to $1.226 Trillion in January 2010 – a level of debt which then equaled GDP
b) We had the Mining Boom Phase 1 between 2004 and 2007 (both inclusive hence the performance of the ASX across those particular years noting the performance of the ASX prior, so negative years then 4 years at 20% or thereabouts from 2004. Then came the GFC).
We all know what happened to the proceeds of that Mining Boom – leading to inflation with the Cash Rate increased not only during an election year but during an election campaign, both unprecedented.
Policies such as the amendment to Franking Credits, tax cuts (“a sandwich a week” as described by Vanstone for middle and lower income earners, the scale amendments in favor of high income earners) and a raft of other policy gave benefit where it gave benefit (so “trickle down”)
There were asset sales, starting with Telstra.
Again, what happended to the proceeds of those asset sales?
A bit like JOBkeeper, housing on Company – and Charity – Balance Sheets whilst individuals received no support based on the Terms and Conditions of their employment.
In my opinion, a very great number of the issues which constrain economic performance today housed with that period of time until 2007 – and since 2013 when economic support was being gradually wound back as the private sector recovered, that winding back of support accelerated at precisely the wrong time post 2013
Including the level of private debt I have referenced from RBA data.
And a question.
Leading into the Pandemic, what was the performance of the Australian economy, what was the level of wages growth and where was the Cash Rate?
And on something else….It may be because I have to watch more of Morrison because of the election campaign, I get the sense he is nowhere near as fit-looking and sharp as he was three years ago. Being in office as PM would not be easy for anyone and we can see how quickly being POTUS aged people like Obama.
Some have pointed out to his verbal gaffes, of which there have been plenty so far in the first two weeks, his need to keep referring to his family, and his beliefs. He is now dragging up political events from ten years ago and seems to drop into car-salesman mode mechanically….
The West correspondent this morning talked in terms of him being somewhere else in his head in the debate last night and “not going in hard enough”….So, might be something in that that even his friends in the media can see too?
To my eye, he is carrying far too much weight for man of his age, his hair has thinned out a lot and I wonder if, in more ways than one, he is not the same campaigner he was in 2019?
MB
I think there is more to it than that which pisses people off, but I do agree that is part of it.
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 12:00 pm
Snappy Tom
“ I’m enjoying the Morrison/Dutton contortions on national security…
‘We fucked up on the Solomons/China deal, therefore Labor can’t be trusted on national security.’
Do I have that right?
That’s the crux of it, entirely illogical. And if anybody wants a large coat hanger shaped bridge I’ve got one for sale going cheap.
————————-
“The Liar from the Shire” needs a name change to “Pig Iron Scott”.
After the election his name will change again to
“Scott No Friends”
jt1983
I know what you are trying to get at but in most cases the issues have not changed in 40 years. The only issue that has become accepted by the mainstream is SSM but that goes to my point about the problem isn’t the issues but how they are handled now SSM has been enacted without anyone being discriminated against and that is why its become mainstream and the churches might disagree but i have not seen any cases where a church has been discriminated against.
“ltepsays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 11:41 am
Nice ABC article on the baseless cashless debit card scare campaign:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/how-facebook-post-fuelled-cashless-debit-card-scare-campaign/101003548”
Terrible article
It’s not baseless at all
You have to get many many paragraphs down before you get to this:
“Julian Hill declined a request for an interview but, in a statement to the ABC, a Labor spokesperson said that they made “no apologies for highlighting this issue — and we will not take lectures from this government on scare campaigns”.
“Both Scott Morrison and Anne Ruston as Social Services Minister have talked about applying the cashless welfare card more broadly”.
The statement included previous general quotes about expanding the Cashless Debit Card scheme from both Mr Morrison and Ms Ruston dating back to 2019. None mentioned expanding the card to pensioners.”
There exists a cashless debit card and a policy to expand it by a government with a well earned reputation for dishonesty….who are now going for the second crack at a “death tax” scare campaign
Fuck anyone who thinks Labor should not counter that
Esther Foundation goes into voluntary administration. Tiny story on page 10 of the West today. No mention of government grants.
All the best BK. Happy birthday
Stokes jumps the shark…
I think maybe it’s less “accepted” by the mainstream – but the salience of those issues as vote shifters/activators is reduced, because generally, in the true Australian way… not enough people give a shit, and those who do are probably solidly in one camp already.
Not the sort of headline I was expecting to see in The West Australian. Video,paywalled.
https://thewest.com.au/news/up-late/up-late-with-ben-harvey-the-absurd-pledges-scott-morrison-has-made-while-in-wa–c-6499092
Anthony Albanese:
Electricity prices in Australia are about 25% higher than electricity prices in Singapore. It is not only economically stupid to sell this electricity in Singapore rather than sell it in Australia and make more money, it is also mind-bogglingly brain-dead to claim we would be a “renewable energy superpower” because we generate electricity using renewables here and then sell it to Singapore but continue to burn fossil fuels to generate our own electricity here in Australia.
FFS 🙁