Federal election minus 30 days

An audience of undecided voters offers a fairly even verdict following last night’s leaders debate, plus sundry other pieces of polling news and campaign detritus.

Polling and other horse race news:

• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.

• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.

The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.

• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.

• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.

Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.

Nice-looking things on other websites:

• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.

• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.

• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.

• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.

Everything else:

• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.

• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.

• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.

Also:

• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,162 comments on “Federal election minus 30 days”

  1. “Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets … that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.”

    In the Canberra bubble, by contrast, the collective commentariat narrative is that we’re heading for a hung parliament. Kevin Bonham is scathing:

    “… hung parliament talk has become widespread. Sectors of the press gallery are embarrassing themselves more than usual, while sectors of the press gallery that always embarrass themselves are doing what they do best.”

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/04/poll-roundup-federal-hung-parliament.html

  2. SMH, Wright and Clun, August 20 2022
    “Australia has suffered one of the largest budget deteriorations in the developed world and one of the biggest increases in debt,”
    ” the cost of servicing the nation’s record debt had climbed by billions of dollars ”
    “When the Coalition came to power in 2013, Australia’s gross debt was 30.5 per cent of GDP. By next year, it will have more than doubled to 62.5 per cent. Last week, it hit a record $889 billion.”

    Morrison and Frydenberg continue to prosecute the argument “who do we trust to manage the nation’s finances?”

    The IMF doesn’t agree with the often spruiked claim that Australia finances are in good shape. They’re are not.
    Simply, the Liberals under Morrison and Frydenberg , have place Australia in a position that depends on continuing high prices for export commodities and a high degree of inflation to prevent the fiscal imbalance from deteriorating further.

    It is a very bad time for Australia’s relationship with China to be strained.
    It is a very bad time for workers in Australia with stagnant wages and higher interest rates.

    The LNP have badly mismanaged the Australian economy.
    Billions of dollars gifted to big business during the pandemic stimulus response and billions of dollars lost, buying submarines, don’t seem such good ideas.

    Morrison and Frydenberg have left Australia in an economic quagmire with the claims of fiscal responsibility looking ludicrous.

    30 more days in the desert for the LNP Government is looking ominous and the fiscal repair task daunting.

  3. There’s too much of god’s kingdom in the political arena in my view. All these happy clappers in parliament are too focused on god’s kingdom and not focused enough on their constituents!

  4. Oliver Sutton @ 5:03
    These Rightwing religious nutters are an ever present danger to Australian society. They do whatever it takes to get their way, and justify their actions as God’s will.
    Morrison is a case in point, he will do anything and say anything to advance the entry of fellow Pentecostals into Parliament to further the ideas and plans of the Pentecostal movement in Australia.
    When l see their collective actions in Parliament l shudder.
    These religious kooks are dangerous people, they endorse a theocracy at the heart of Australian politics and woe be tide anyone who stands in their way.
    If we value our culture they have to be stopped.

  5. Niki Savva is back this week.

    Overlooked in all the excitement over Anthony Albanese’s shocking start to the election campaign was how awful it has been for Scott Morrison. Albanese’s mistakes were spontaneous, damaging and inexcusable. Morrison’s performance was typically Morrison – disciplined, rehearsed and also damaging.

    Morrison was kept alive, just, thanks to Albanese’s bloopers, a well-targeted budget, an ability to keep talking confidently while everything crumbles around him and a few media rat packers determined to even up the contest. Even though they reeked of workshopping and gotcha, the journalists’ questions to Albanese were legitimate.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-is-learning-mistakes-can-prove-fatal-whatever-morrison-does-20220420-p5aeo2.html

  6. From the Australian

    “ Australia and the US are bracing for the rapid deployment of ­Chinese security forces to the Solomon Islands, fearing Beijing will move to seal a controversial new security agreement.”

    SMH leading with

    “ China could have Solomon Islands military base within four weeks”

    This looks like the major failure for the Coalition and this wave looks set to break at any time so hopefully at least Albo can make use of this to destroy the Coalition’s national security credibility. Xi has badly outsmarted a very lazy and incompetent Morrison.

  7. By Latika Bourke
    Labor has seized on a moment that took place during the debate when an audience member asked a question relating to her four-year-old son who has autism.

    “Jenny and I have been blessed, we’ve got two children who haven’t had to go through that,” Morrison told her, stressing that he could only try to understand her predicament.

    That famous Morrison lack of empathy and lack of self-awareness to the fore again. Anybody care to advise him that the audience member too is blessed but just needs a bit more assistance than the Morrison’s.

  8. You know, I reckon that among the 25 Undecided Voters in the poll after the debate last night, as well as there being some who remain genuinely undecided, there would have been a few Shy Albo voters who didn’t want Sky News or their friends and family to find out that they had changed their minds last night. I hope so. 🙂

  9. A prompt response to my email to Guide Dogs Victoria.

    “Hello Mrs Blank (removed for my privacy)

    Thank you for taking the time to reach out to us.

    We understand your concerns and are taking all feedback regarding this matter very seriously. We wish to assure the community and our stakeholders that we are absolutely committed to our important work as a charitable apolitical organisation in line with the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission (ACNC) regulations.

    We can also assure you that the Guide Dogs Victoria Board of Directors had no prior knowledge of the distribution of this material and does not endorse it. The Board has launched an internal investigation and requested that this material be immediately removed from circulation. You can read our full statement on this here.

    We appreciate the time you have taken to contact us and we will provide updates at the appropriate time. In the meantime, if you have any specific questions we are happy to arrange a time to speak with you directly.

    Again we thank you for your time in providing us with your feedback.

    Joanna Stavrou (she/her)

    GM People and Culture

    Victoria

    P 1800 804 805 |

    2-6 Chandler Highway, Kew VIC 3101”

  10. Cronus @ #8 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 6:41 am

    By Latika Bourke
    Labor has seized on a moment that took place during the debate when an audience member asked a question relating to her four-year-old son who has autism.

    “Jenny and I have been blessed, we’ve got two children who haven’t had to go through that,” Morrison told her, stressing that he could only try to understand her predicament.

    That famous Morrison lack of empathy and lack of self-awareness to the fore again. Anybody care to advise him that the audience member too is blessed but just needs a bit more assistance than the Morrison’s.

    Not only that, but also that idea that creeps into so much of Morrison’s thinking of Believing that only the Blessed and Godly have perfect lives, perfect wives and unblemished children. So that lady must have sinned against God in some way to have had an Autistic child. Absolutely offensive stuff.

    Also, as the mother of a Disabled child myself, can I just say that he is perfect in my eyes and I couldn’t live without him the amount of sunshine and life learnings he has given to me. I’m much the better person for his being here. And everyone who knows him loves him just as much.

  11. Supposedly Albo had a ‘bit of a moment’ stumble on the boats issue last night. Phttt, it’s not half the stumble Morrison is about to have on China’s boats. Let’s see him turn those back.

  12. Red 13 @ #5 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 6:08 am

    Oliver Sutton @ 5:03
    These Rightwing religious nutters are an ever present danger to Australian society. They do whatever it takes to get their way, and justify their actions as God’s will.
    Morrison is a case in point, he will do anything and say anything to advance the entry of fellow Pentecostals into Parliament to further the ideas and plans of the Pentecostal movement in Australia.
    When l see their collective actions in Parliament l shudder.
    These religious kooks are dangerous people, they endorse a theocracy at the heart of Australian politics and woe be tide anyone who stands in their way.
    If we value our culture they have to be stopped.

    You just had to look at who he had in the press conference with him as he stoutly defended Transphobe and Homophobe, Katherine Deves: Stuart Robert, Pentecostal and Ben Morton, Pentecostal. Say no more.

  13. Oliver Sutton @ #1 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 4:26 am

    “Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets … that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.”

    In the Canberra bubble, by contrast, the collective commentariat narrative is that we’re heading for a hung parliament. Kevin Bonham is scathing:

    “… hung parliament talk has become widespread. Sectors of the press gallery are embarrassing themselves more than usual, while sectors of the press gallery that always embarrass themselves are doing what they do best.”

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/04/poll-roundup-federal-hung-parliament.html

    The CPG just can’t bring themselves to say that Labor might win.

  14. G’day bludgers all

    I too watched the debate last night, but didn’t feel like joining in all the fun on PB.

    I for one was immediately rather disturbed by ScoMo’s “blessed” comment to the lady with the autistic son. It was an inappropriate comment, as the lady would no doubt argue that she too was “blessed” by her son.

    The comment wasn’t that important in the overall scheme of things, but it was in keeping with ScoMo’s overall performance, which was the usual smarmy unctuousness (or was it unctuous smarminess?) of the god-botherer that he is. Albo, on the other hand, was in his best Question Time form, and made a lot of good points on aged care, NDIS, integrity, etc. He wasn’t quite so good on foreign policy: the cognoscenti (if any were watching) would have been unimpressed by his seeming belief that the Solomons leadership would have immediately backed down if we’d just been able to send an important enough person there to talk them out of the deal. And his vision of a revived manufacturing sector in Australia powered by alternative energy and producing solar batteries sounded to me like a bit of a pipedream.

    Nonetheless, in terms of the good old debating scoring system of 40% for manner, 40% for matter and 20% for method, I reckon Albo won hands down, particularly in terms of the matter.

    Of course, the overall impact of the exercise will be very slight, as I’m sure the overwhelming majority of the viewing audience (and probably a high proportion of the so-called undecided audience members, because it’s hard to weed out the liars) were political tragics who are rusted-on to one side or the other.

    And ScoMo won’t be at all bothered about how he went, as he will consider that he was able to get two key points across very clearly:
    1) Labor is good at coming up with great new policies but, when it implements them, is inclined to blow the budget and destabilise the economy;
    2) Albo and Labor can say that they aren’t going to change anything re unauthorised boat arrivals, but the truth is that they still have slightly bleeding hearts on the issue and also don’t properly understand how the policy works, so they will inevitably stuff it up.

    He will continue to riff on these themes over the next weeks. They are very strong arguments for him, although, if Newspoll is to be believed (and we have little choice but to do so), they probably aren’t going to get him over the line. But they allow ScoMo to keep on presenting the swinging voters in the suburbs with a very clear choice: do you want to take a risk and vote for the nice dreamers, or hold your nose and vote for the a***hole you can hardly stand, but who you know is competent and won’t stuff everything up? It would seem that there are still quite a lot of undecided voters out there and, if he can get enough of them to listen to him about the alleged risks of Labor, he might be able to achieve a late swing back to the Government.

    A final very minor point: there was an amusing little exchange over the NDIS. ScoMo went out of his way to praise Gillard for the creation of the scheme. Albo came back, in a guarded way, with a response that included mention of Shorten as being the true original architect of the scheme. And then ScoMo responded by re-emphasising Gillard’s role. Methinks it was iust ScoMo trying to stir up a little bit of trouble along with, perhaps, an attempt to counter some of his bad image with women by aligning himself with the only female Australian PM (and the one whom – without wanting to reopen that debate – both Albo and Shorten helped to bring down).

  15. Posted this last night, but worth revisiting – Frank Banimarama says what he really thinks about Scott Morrison, and why China will infiltrate the Pacific.

    Said two years ago, and ignored by those asleep at the wheel.. as Peter Hartcher says this morning – Lest We Forget.

    In an exclusive interview with Guardian Australia after the conclusion of the PIF, Frank Bainimarama, the prime minister of Fiji and a political heavyweight in the region, said Morrison’s approach during the leaders’ retreat on Thursday was “very insulting and condescending”.

    “Yesterday was probably one of the most frustrating days I have ever had,” he said of the leaders’ retreat, which lasted for nearly 12 hours and almost broke down over Australia’s red lines on the climate crisis.

    After yesterday’s meeting I gathered [Morrison] was here only to make sure that the Australian policies were upheld by the Pacific island nations,” said Bainimarama.

    “I thought Morrison was a good friend of mine; apparently not.

    “The prime minister at one stage, because he was apparently [backed] into a corner by the leaders, came up with how much money Australia have been giving to the Pacific. He said: ‘I want that stated. I want that on the record.’ Very insulting.”

    Bainimarama said the interaction with Morrison had made him so angry that when he watched rugby union’s Bledisloe Cup match on Saturday, he would be cheering for the All Blacks, despite being “a Wallabies fan from a long way back”.

    Asked if Morrison’s approach might cause some Pacific leaders to look to China, which is locked in a battle for influence in the region with Australia, Bainimarama said: “After what we went through with Morrison, nothing can be worse than him.

    “China never insults the Pacific. You say it as if there’s a competition between Australia and China. There’s no competition, except to say the Chinese don’t insult us. They don’t go down and tell the world that we’ve given this much money to the Pacific islands. They don’t do that. They’re good people, definitely better than Morrison, I can tell you that.

    “The prime minister was very insulting, very condescending, not good for the relationship … They [Australians] keep saying the Chinese are going to take over. Guess why?” said Bainimarama, laughing. “You don’t have to be a high-school graduate to know that.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/16/fiji-pm-frank-bainimarama-insulting-scott-morrison-rift-pacific-countries?CMP=share_btn_tw

  16. D

    My husband was shirtfronted by a fundraiser for “Seeing Eye Dogs – Vision Australia’ a few months ago.

    He wanted to make a one off donation but was told that wasn’t possible, he’d have to sign up for a monthly, so he decided that he’d do that and then cancel the payment once he’d given what he intended.

    Although we realised that VA wasn’t Victorian Guide Dogs, it reminded him that he needed to cancel the sub, so he did.

    He almost immediately got an email from their media department, stressing that they had nothing to do with VGD.

    Obviously it’s biting (pun originally not intended…)

  17. Chris Uhlmann tying himself in knots on Today, appearing to suggest that based on advice from his grandmother decades ago (she apparently didn’t like Arthur Calwell’s voice)……Albo may be unelectable.

    He hinted at unspecified intel/polling which may in fact suggest Albo’s voice “is a thing”, or words to that effect. Incredibly lame stuff

  18. vote for the a***hole you can hardly stand, but who you know is competent and won’t stuff everything up?

    1. He is an arsehole that even his own MPs can’t stand (from Niki Savva’s article today):

    “Utterly ruthless. The most ruthless politician in parliament,” is how one of Morrison’s colleagues under threat described him. It wasn’t meant as a compliment.
    And

    2. He has stuffed everything up.

  19. Yeah, this is also in KB’s article
    “At this election a hung parliament is a serious chance – and one that became far more likely as Labor’s lead has shrunk – but it’s still far from inevitable, and probably not even yet a 50-50 shot. “

  20. Last night Morrison fibbed (shocking I know) when he claimed that the turn back policy he designed dropped boat arriving from 30-40 a week to zero.

    The fact is that the high water mark for boat arrivals was July 20913 – when 47 boats arrived, an average of approx. 12 a week. On 19 July the Rudd-Albanese Government announced that no future boat arrivals would be granted protection visas. Period. The effect was instantaneous. Boat arrivals in August (the peak month of expected arrivals due to favourable seasonal sailing conditions) was only 25. The number halved overnight. For September the number fell again to 15, a third of the July peak. Even after the coalition took office, it took several months to roll outer operation sovereign borders, by which time the number of boat arrivals was bubbling along at between 5 and 7 boats a month. Operation Soverign Borders – and especially its centrepiece of ‘turn backs’ – was little more than a mopping up exercise.

    Some salient facts:

    https://johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-a-graph-on-boat-arrivals-for-lazy-journalists/

    Two further points should be made:

    1. For all their blow hard rhetoric the coalition itself abandoned true ‘turn back’ operations early in 2014 – shifting tactics to putting asylum seekers on those Orange ‘life buoy’ boats and sending them back – launching them at Indonesia from just outside the territorial limits with only enough fuel to land. One suspects that Soveriegn Borders Command found the exercise far more hazardous than ScoMo ever let on, with his ‘on water matters’ blanket ban on reportage.

    2. Perhaps the reason why ScoMo and the government has always been cagey about releasing real information about ‘on water operations’ is that they ran into the sorts of problems that the Rudd government did when they attempted turn backs in 2008-09: which ended when some asylum seekers set fire to a boat with fatal consequences on Ashmore reef because they feared (incorrectly as it turned out) that the ADF was planning on turning their boat back.

    One seriously doubts that Operation Soverign Borders would have worked at all, without the policy framework that Labor left in place, especially the blanket ban on visas for boat arrivals.

    I am still somewhat surprised that Albo doesnt call ScoMo out about this, especially last night when he pressed Albo for why he didn’t support turn backs in Governemnt. i would have thought a quick response would have been something like this:

    1. Departmental Advice at the time opposed turn backs;
    2. Our blanket policy of No Visas for boat arrivals and the re-introduction of Offshore Processing was working. We cut the numbers from 47 boats a month in July down to 15 by the time we left office two months later. So you are wrong to claim that your policy stopped 30-40 boats a week. Another fib.
    3. Labor later changed its position in opposition when it became apparent that a revived and highly modified version of boat turn backs could work as a mopping up exercise and as a future deterrent alongside the foundation of my ‘no visa policy’ – which actually does all of the heavy lifting.

    I’m sure the above could be further workshopped down to something more concise and pithy. Like the ‘better economic managers’ trope I am still surprised that labor has simply run away on this. Especially when ScoMo is claiming to be personally responsible for stopping 30-40 boats a week. Bullshit.

  21. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6921379915476926464-T_5E

    Think (different), think vs nuthink?.
    Note the over complicated world line, as in paradox of choice. Such as just a small, medium and large. (Happy meals rather than red or blue Chinese menu.)
    White, grey, black.
    Talk about the experience, wants not needs, match environment, behaviour and product.
    (If all fails default to a scare campaign. Anyone here actually watched the debate, or just get the summaries, not to mention cartoons?)
    I guess, the brazen, all shirk and smirk, inept #SFM, game master and all that, gets some of that, just not people, (transparency, integrity, accountability) process or participation.
    Never about sourcing from places that do better, experts, unis just about sourcing from the IPA or Hill Song.
    Let alone mission, capability, values, playbook, scorecards.
    Because that’d be facts and data over beliefs and fairies.
    Of course, in pollyTICs, these days there are Greens, Libs lite, Fibs/ Nats, minor parties and independents, UAP, PHON …, though on the various benchmarks (#) Australia keeps slipping, if not as much as say, the Poms, or Yanks. Make them preferences count?
    You are either with the serfs, or advancing Australia, fair, or you are a courtier/ acolyte for merchant kings/ warlords.
    bring on a progressive alliance, Greens/ Liebor/ independents..
    The present fed gummint has had since 2013 (1996, 1975), regressive and repressive (supposedly balancing health, security and wealth) …
    Health, well, downunder Wuflu deaths per million of population in mid Dec were below 100, now they are about 300 (Canada is more than triple that, New Zealand a third that).
    Security, barges that can’t delivery aid. Never never subs. Stealth fighters with short legs that can’t outfly or outstealth. Main battle tanks that can’t be deployed And the list goes on and on, including no theatre ballistic missile defence, civil defence/ FEMA …
    Wealth, the Oracle of Omaha called it (kleptocracy/ Murdochracy) right, concentration of assets at the top end, and people at the bottom end.
    I guess I now get why so many Yanks talk of moving elsewhere depending on who wins an election.
    With the likes of BoJo (special privileges before common law), Spinocchio, if no longer TDJT (…), the BRICs aren’t so scary.

    (#, inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, Sustainable Development Goals, Gross National Happiness, Better Life Index, World Competitiveness Report/ Index …)

  22. Was talking to someone who is out campaigning for Liberals in WA the other day and they are feeling there might be a chance of re-election or hung parliament (they would hope that). They have been shocked Labor’s campaign is so poor. Their ultimate feeling is that Morrison is loathed (they don’t believe the approval ratings in polls) and that the Anyone but Scomo factor might see them defeated.

  23. Even Christian Porter’s BFF was pretty emphatic it was a solid Albo performance.

    Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    I thought Albo won pretty convincingly, but few will have seen it so it won’t have a material impact on the campaign. #auspol

  24. C@T

    I think of myself as a bit of a cave dweller but I think these folk have appropriated my wording. Due to sheer weight of numbers I may have to refer to myself in different terms.

  25. cady @ #23 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 7:22 am

    Chris Uhlmann tying himself in knots on Today, appearing to suggest that based on advice from his grandmother decades ago (she apparently didn’t like Arthur Calwell’s voice)……Albo may be unelectable.

    He hinted at unspecified intel/polling which may in fact suggest Albo’s voice “is a thing”, or words to that effect. Incredibly lame stuff

    Didn’t his grandmother ever listen to John Howard? He had a speech impediment too. And anyway, how uncharitable of her.

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. 77 today – but I hardly feel a day older than 76!

    Albanese is learning mistakes can prove fatal, whatever Morrison does, writes Niki Savva. There’s an interesting sting in the tail of this contribution, bearing in mind the sources Savva seems to have.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-is-learning-mistakes-can-prove-fatal-whatever-morrison-does-20220420-p5aeo2.html
    A pissed-off Peter Hartcher says our leaders (since Turnbull) should hang their heads in shame over the Solomons-China deal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/leaders-should-hang-their-heads-in-shame-over-solomons-china-deal-20220420-p5aewq.html
    The signing of the China-­Solomon Islands security treaty is a very bad day for Australia, one of the worst days for our national security since the end of the Vietnam War, declares Greg Sheridan.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/solomon-islands-security-treaty-an-epic-fail-in-australian-policy/news-story/f2dfda9d24dbc44b9de07a8f83e16dcc
    Anthony Galloway says that Labor’s Penny Wong was correct when she accused the government of the “worst failure of Australian foreign policy in the Pacific” in almost 80 years, after the Solomon Islands signed a security pact with China.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-china-solomon-islands-security-deal-is-a-failure-that-goes-back-years-20220420-p5aeqr.html
    David Crowe reckons the leaders played it safe as the first debate ended in a nil-all draw.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/leaders-play-it-safe-as-first-debate-ends-in-a-nil-all-draw-20220420-p5aex4.html
    Here’s Katherine Murphy’s take on the debate.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/20/amid-sharp-questions-in-leaders-debate-morrison-stayed-relentlessly-on-message-while-albanese-showed-he-was-listening
    The debate was the highlight of the campaign so far – a pity more couldn’t have watched, laments Dom Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-albanese-debate-highlight-of-campaign-so-far-20220420-p5aeyc.html
    Michelle Grattan tells us Andrew Wilkie has invited independent candidates to call him for a chat about approaching a hung parliament.
    https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-andrew-wilkie-invites-independent-candidates-to-call-him-for-a-chat-about-approaching-a-hung-parliament-181604
    In an election short on excitement, Morrison and Albanese are relying on scare campaigns, argues Hugh Riminton.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/20/in-an-election-short-on-excitement-morrison-and-albanese-are-relying-on-scare-campaigns
    PEFO tells us Morrison has abandoned some secret promises, but his books are in order, writes Stephen Bartos.
    https://theconversation.com/pefo-tells-us-morrison-has-abandoned-some-secret-promises-but-his-books-are-in-order-181538
    This election is a vacuum of ideas – and that’s bad news for Labor, opines Osman Faruqi.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-election-is-a-vacuum-of-ideas-that-s-bad-news-for-labor-20220419-p5aem3.html
    Right wing media no longer wield power as they once did. So why is Labor letting them set the election agenda, wonders Jeff Crowe.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/20/rightwing-media-no-longer-wields-power-like-it-once-did-so-why-is-labor-letting-it-set-the-election-agenda
    The Coalition-News Corp attack on Labor’s energy policy is all too familiar, writes Adam Morton.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/apr/20/coalition-news-corp-attack-on-labor-energy-policy-is-all-too-familiar
    Jennifer Wilson begins thiis contribution with, “The mainstream media is shaping the narrative of the 2022 election into a battle between two leaders. Perhaps one of the more remarkable journalistic observations last week came from ABC’s political editor Andrew Probyn, when he declared on Insiders on Sunday that “Only certain political messages get through”. Probyn appears to be entirely unaware of, or unwilling to admit, the role of his profession in determining which of those messages will “get through”.”
    https://theaimn.com/political-journalists-are-framing-the-election/
    Our corporate media will not acknowledge that Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison did not stop the boats. Despite clear evidence, the Canberra Press Gallery fell for the spin. With a tame media and cooperation by the military, the big lie was repeated time and time again and became accepted as fact. This was all before Donald Trump and his big lies, writes John Menadue in his article about the repeated lie that Morrison stopped the boats.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-repeated-lie-that-morrison-stopped-the-boats-a-repost-from-march-112021/
    More than $100 million in community grants has been awarded to projects in marginal seats crucial to winning the election, Treasury documents reveal. Payment updates within the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook show 15 projects have been awarded Community Development Grants since the March budget, with eight grants allocated to marginal electorates. The total amount allocated across the additional projects since the budget sits at $116.6 million. They are still at it!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7706536/economic-update-reveals-further-coalition-grants-rorting/?cs=14329
    The Morrison government’s promise to spend $7.4bn building a series of new dams is probably “the biggest pork barrel in history,” says the author of new research that claims other investment would deliver significantly better economic outcomes and more jobs.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/21/morrison-governments-74bn-in-dam-commitments-could-be-biggest-pork-barrel-in-history
    Australia has suffered one of the largest budget deteriorations in the developed world and one of the biggest increases in debt, and the International Monetary Fund is warning budget repair has to start soon, explain Sanne Wight and Rachel Clun.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-bleeds-red-ink-as-imf-says-now-is-time-to-start-fiscal-repair-20220420-p5aep5.html
    The National party’s candidate for the marginal northern New South Wales seat of Richmond told worshippers at a Pentecostal church that her “ultimate goal” in politics was to “bring God’s kingdom to the political arena”. Just what we need – more of Pentecostalism!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/21/nsw-nationals-candidate-tells-congregation-of-her-aim-to-bring-gods-kingdom-to-politics
    More than two thirds of directors support a federal anti-corruption body, says a new survey, which has also identified government integrity and trustworthiness as key election concerns, reports Clancy Yates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/it-s-about-accountability-directors-back-federal-anti-corruption-watchdog-20220420-p5aeqh.html
    According to James Massola and Alexandra Smith, NSW Liberals say they’re resigned to embattled Katherine Deves remaining the party’s Warringah candidate, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison dug in to support her and declared Australians were “fed up with having to walk on eggshells”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dominic-perrottet-tells-colleagues-he-did-not-katherine-deves-text-to-scott-morrison-20220420-p5aenv.html
    Habitual bipartisanship is toxic to good defence policy, says Mike Scrafton.
    https://johnmenadue.com/habitual-bipartisanship-is-toxic-to-good-defence-policy/
    Big business is on a collision course with whoever wins government over pandemic-era workplace reforms that would allow cuts to employee pay or entitlements during wage negotiations, writes Angus Thompson.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/business-still-want-changes-to-boot-as-the-workplace-reform-causes-political-stoush-20220420-p5aeuv.html
    Thousands of truckies may find themselves covered by Labor’s policy to set minimum pay and conditions for “employee-like” workers, businesses fear. The AFR tells us that business groups are concerned Labor’s gig worker policy could extend to other independent contractors such as owner drivers, raising the spectre of a controversial road safety body that set pay for truck drivers but was later abolished after a backlash.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/labor-gig-worker-policy-could-extend-to-truckies-business-warns-20220420-p5aese
    The SMH editorial says that COVID-19 isolation rules had outlived their use-by date.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/covid-19-isolation-rules-had-outlived-their-use-by-date-20220420-p5aevk.html
    The easing of Covid restrictions in Victoria and New South Wales has been welcomed by industry groups, despite concerns from some epidemiologists that it sends the wrong message at a time daily infections remain high.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/21/epidemiologists-split-over-easing-of-covid-restrictions-in-nsw-and-victoria
    The federal government should mandate emissions reduction targets on $300 billion worth of infrastructure projects in the pipeline, as well as tighten emissions standards on vehicles, according to a new report from Infrastructure Partnerships Australia.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/call-for-carbon-reduction-targets-on-projects-20220420-p5aerg
    The aged care sector has questioned the Coalition’s claims that the home care workforce has increased by almost 15% in a matter of months, saying the figures appear at odds with the “severe staffing challenges” it is experiencing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/21/aged-care-sector-questions-coalition-claim-home-care-workforce-has-grown-by-almost-15
    Tom Rabe reveals that all but one NSW Coalition MP has been awarded a parliamentary promotion to boost their base salary, with Premier Dominic Perrottet also appointing a record number of ministers to his cabinet.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/everyone-gets-a-prize-almost-all-coalition-mps-earning-well-above-base-salary-20220420-p5aev3.html
    Property prices have stopped rising in Sydney and Melbourne but first-home hopefuls keen to get into the market are being warned to watch out for a trap, explains Elizabeth Redman.
    https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/the-looming-risk-that-could-leave-first-home-buyers-20-000-out-of-pocket-20220420-p5aevg.html
    Jewel Topsfield outlines three things Australia could do to help fix the mental health crisis.
    https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/three-things-australia-could-do-to-help-fix-the-mental-health-crisis-20220419-p5aecc.html
    NSW reported its lowest number of new HIV infections on record last year with the goal of elimination of the virus in the state now “well within reach by 2025”. The achievement would make NSW one of the first places in the world to eliminate HIV before the global target of 2030, public health experts say.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/unique-on-a-global-scale-nsw-nears-elimination-of-hiv-as-cases-fall-to-record-lows-20220407-p5abld.html
    Questions sent to the ABC by Christian Porter’s lawyers during his high-profile defamation case appeared to correlate to “confidential” information told to his barrister by the friend of a woman who accused him of sexual assault, a court has heard. Georgina Mitchel tells us what happened there.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/questions-sent-to-abc-by-porter-s-lawyers-seemed-to-correlate-to-confidential-information-court-told-20220420-p5aes7.html
    Jackson Graham reports that two of Victoria’s biggest coal-fired power stations have been hit with faults, knocking out a chunk of the state’s power supply.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/victoria-s-biggest-coal-fired-power-plant-hit-by-second-outage-in-three-years-20220420-p5aery.html
    Russia has test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile designed to evade defences, with Putin saying it should cause anyone threatening Russia to “think twice” as it continued its assaults in Ukraine’s east.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/russia-test-fires-unique-missile-as-its-forces-tighten-noose-in-mariupol-20220421-p5aeyt.html
    Donald Trump attempted a coup on 6 January 2021 as he tried to salvage his doomed presidency, and that will be a central focus of forthcoming public hearings of the special House panel investigating events surrounding the insurrection at the US Capitol, the congressman Jamie Raskin has said.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/19/donald-trump-jamie-raskin-january-6-committee-capitol-attack

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/kDqE8LvSwvU8fyZkrZC97F/770f4907-7d0c-48bb-84b7-38aa215e6609.jpg/r0_79_1540_949_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg
    David Rowe
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQxPz34aAAAg0oW.jpg
    Megan Herbert
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/f25c104fdbb12f95259c0d90688029de824f8b84.jpg
    John Shakespeare
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/cd4f901b4b66fb11fbb861f76a009d1fafd39a5a.jpg
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/1dc438f3d24b6dd8a630256b6f1ea3b6df19d57c.jpg
    Dione Gain
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1680/t_resize_width/q_62%2Cf_auto/06928c21f5aa54ba1812b591a5db20fd835a36c9.jpg
    Fiona Katauskas
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQvq7I1VEAAiJKw.jpg
    Mark David
    https://independentaustralia.net/i/article/img/article-16279-thumb.jpg
    https://independentaustralia.net/_lib/slir/w800/i/article/img/article-16278-hero.jpg
    Leak just can’t help himself!
    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/c1b3d6b83061767996e834c97926192c?width=1024#image.jpg

    From the US

    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1650465393/20220419edbbc-a.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1650465329/20220419edhoc-a.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1650465071/lk042022dAPR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1650464783/20220419edshe-b.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1650395326/262113_768_rgb.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1650395204/20220418edhan-a.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1650395150/bg041922dAPR.jpg
    https://image.cagle.com/262209/750/262209.png
    https://image.cagle.com/262206/750/262206.png
    https://image.cagle.com/262203/750/262203.png

  27. If not sending Payne was as a consequence to intelligence briefings, its time to get new intelligence advisors. Potatohead, pushing his “sekrit information” bullshit line again this morning:

    “ The Solomon Islands isn’t Tasmania. [It] is a sovereign nation and we need to deal with them respectfully. We have done that, expressed our views very firmly and strongly over a long period of time and [to] suggest somehow that [their decision] is about climate change or any other reason is complete nonsense.
    [Critics] are shooting from the hip because they haven’t had the intelligence briefings. We have had those briefings and we have gone through what was known and what was available to us in what has been a delicate period and a very deliberate decision not to send Marise Payne.”

    Compare THAT with what the Fijian PM said back in 2019 after the conclusion of the last PIF in 2019, as posted by Sprocket again above.

    Given the changing strategic situation that Dutton etc keeping banging on about, why the fuck wasn’t Payne effectively camped in Honiara and Suva and Port Villa for the past three years? Forget about the little further fuck up of having her enormous arse ensconced at PWC-Liberal party fundraisers last week. What about the last three years. Or, for that matter, doing a repair job in the three years prior to 2019, after the disastrous period of the Abbott government 2013-15? It’s all very well for Dame Julie Asbestos to come out yesterday, but what the fuck did she – and Brian Trumble DO exactly to mend fences in 2015-18?

    FMD!

  28. The Savva piece this week is more critical of Morrison than it is with Albanese I thought.

    It really is Labor’s to lose.

  29. If this tweet from Karvelas is real it is telling – they take their own importance as the priority like our pollies they do not reflect

  30. Sounds about right. I think most people have made up their minds on Morrison (one way or another), and the RWNJs have had little sway in shifting the polling.

    BK says:
    Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:39 am
    Right wing media no longer wield power as they once did. So why is Labor letting them set the election agenda, wonders Jeff Crowe.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/20/rightwing-media-no-longer-wields-power-like-it-once-did-so-why-is-labor-letting-it-set-the-election-agenda

  31. Andrew Earlwood

    Here’s Dutton’s problem, they can be hopelessly inept for not knowing it was coming or hopelessly inept for not acting to prevent it over nine years. Either way, they’re hopelessly inept and it seems few are falling for their ridiculous attempts to deflect blame.

  32. From the Adrian Beaumont piece;

    “Don’t trust the Queensland state breakdowns…
    Federal Labor has a long history of underperforming its polls in Queensland, and this was particularly the case in 2019. Polls in Queensland in 2019 suggested a 50-50 tie or 51-49 to the Coalition, but the actual result was a crushing 58.4-41.6 to the Coalition.
    The last Newspoll breakdowns for the March quarter gave the Coalition a 54-46 lead in Queensland, and this is likely closer to Queensland’s voting intentions than current breakdowns, as Newspoll now weights by education.”

    Last election there was also the last minute Bob Brown convoy which was reported to polarize views.
    There was more reasons for miners to be nervous about their jobs/communities, this time Greens are criticizing Labor for not planning on stopping new coal mines, which should benefit Labor in some seats up there.
    Palmer was also very anti-Labor last time, but i think he hates everyone more equally now, so that is less likely to pull the vote back during the campaign on 2PP basis.

    Its reasonable to expect Labor have learnt their lessons and Queensland wont be providing second miracles.

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