Federal election minus 29 days

Anthony Albanese in sick bay, ballot paper draws ready to go, and some public opinion data points of perhaps dubious provenance.

Facing seven days in isolation after testing positive for COVID-19, Anthony Albanese will “postpone a punishing schedule of marginal seat visits in the next week and instead do media appearances from home”, according to the ABC. That headline-grabber aside, there is also the following to report:

• The West Australian has a poll from Painted Dog Research showing Anthony Albanese leading Scott Morrison 54-46 as best leader to handle the economy, out of a sample of 1241 Western Australian respondents polled on Wednesday. Personal ratings were even better for Albanese in relative terms, his 38% approval and disapproval and 38% disapproval comparing with Morrison’s 26% and 55%. Asked “which is your least desired outcome from the election”, 39% went for a Coalition majority, 22% for a Labor majority and 39% for a hung parliament. It should be noted that this outfit’s accuracy has never been properly tested since it has never conducted voting intention polling, and its numbers are quite a lot difference from those of the last Newspoll breakdown, which gave both leaders a net rating of minus five in the state.

• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Niki Savva wrote yesterday that Liberal insiders weren’t raising their hopes far beyond a hung parliament, and believed themselves to be “in trouble in Bennelong, Reid, North Sydney and Wentworth in NSW, Chisholm and Goldstein in Victoria, Boothby in South Australia and a slew of seats in Western Australia including Curtin”. In the inner urban seats where the party faces an independent insurgency, Morrison’s net negatives were at “a horrendous minus 30” as the campaign began. Labor strategists acknowledged the possibility of a hung parliament, but believed the election was still “there for the taking”, depending on the quality of Anthony Albanese’s performance.

• The Greens are claiming they are poised to win the Brisbane seat of Griffith from Labor’s Terri Butler, based on 25,000 responses they have received through their door-knocking campaign. Labor may well be right when they dismiss this is a “Greens party hype campaign”, but the Greens claim the method provided an accurate measure ahead of their successes in the state seats of South Brisbane and Maiwar and the Brisbane council ward of The Gabba.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised enrolment statistics following the closure of the roll on Monday. Another milestone on the road to the election is reached with the ballot paper draws at noon today in each division, hopefully to be followed in the afternoon by the full publication of candidates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

858 comments on “Federal election minus 29 days”

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 17 18
  1. Simon says:
    “Oh yes, and she’s doing a good job destroying the Libs chances in a few other seats as well.”

    Not only that: Deves is now also imperilling the NSW minority Coalition government.

    As Oscar Wilde might say: “To bring down one government is unfortunate; to bring down two looks like carelessness.”

  2. Morning all.

    “Being the dux of Canley Vale Public School means nothing. Being the dux of the Kings School, Cranbrook or Abbotsleigh is actually worth some substance.”

    What pompous, arrogant nonsense!

    I was educated through the catholic school system, attending the nearest catholic run high school (which was run by the Christian Brothers, though fortunately not one of their now infamous boarding schools!). There were fees but it was not so expensive back in the 1970s and not elitist or selective. There was no rowing shed or anything like that.

    At the end of primary school I sat an exam which meant I got offered a scholarship to attend Brisbane Grammar School. I declined, mainly because I wanted to stay with my friends. I still graduated in the top 1% in the State in my year, and in our finishing year our school was ranked near the top of the State, with four maximum score students. I subsequently completed several degrees including first class honours and a PhD. I am now head of the professional society for my field in this state.

    As others have said, there is evidence that high fee private schools and money for tutors can boost the odds of students entering university. There is NOT evidence that they are more likely to graduate uni or perform well subsequently. A good home environment and good teachers, especially in primary school, remain the keys to good academic performance, not expensive private schools.

    Elites choose their elitist private school pals for leadership positions not because they are the best leaders, but because they know them. That is why Australia ends up with so many mediocre leaders.

    The old school tie is a noose around Australia’s progress, both in the public and private sectors.

  3. clare might be a great retale politician but given that his been invazble basicly since 2014 a strange defcition to use him as prominatly now un les hill take on marles inployment role the most invizable shadows is don farell who should not be there only in wshadow cabenit due to his role as leader of sa labor faction and michelle roland in comunicat ions charlton was kevin r udd advisor so his atack on ndis gillard should be takin with a grain of sult as rudd wanted her job and his coments should be sceen in the context of advicating a rudd come back in stead of a real view onun les clare is not hidden after election they should use wong orr charmers

  4. dutton is eazily the governmentsweakist link had no answers on subs on 7.30 seems like pm blamed labor for not completing collins clas for him cansiling turnbulls frentch subs it seems they anownsed acos with no detail just to trap labor in to masive compensation and a obselelete sub whicfh labor will have to pull out of which they can use to say labor is weak on security even though the tecnology would be out of date in 40 years time also the nucliar asbect im shore they were hoping for labor left to apoze it the base anowsment first sa now these 3 east coast sights randomly anownsed whcich seems they want t loose boofby and stert dutton basicly confermed his preferents is to build subs over seas

  5. dutons been undermining payne she went on sky on thursday and woffled on about how the solamons deal was not a big deal because the pm ashored sezelja that there would be no chinease base and said our relaetionship with solamons was better then other and said it was business as usual while duton went on 2gb and effectively said she should of tried to stop it in a round a bout way duton wanted to rush the shipdesign for sub but pm contradicted him now his undermining our worst foriegn minister but with our 2 weorst national security ministers and karin andrews who is unknown how can liberals stillhave national security credability when they cansild 2 subs they seem concerned wong will be a good foriegn minister they have been trying to under mine her for years first through nicolle flint using the long bow that sumone herassed her and wong campaigned hard for labor so her not condeming it means shes a buley then mean girls now basicly ddog wisling that her back ground means she can not be trusted o n china but xcant say that directly so atack marles who desbite lack of carizmais highly respected in pacifick and defence

  6. Sharri Markson at SKY tells us the Coalition can get to 74 seats and get Katter and Sharkie to get them over the line. One on the problems with her predictions is that she is reliant on the Coalition winning the seat of Pearce from Labor in WA. Sorry to say Pearce IS a Coalition seat Sharri so the Coalition would be winning this seat against themselves, you know like Scomo telling us to vote for Scomo because he hates himself too. So a win in Pearce counts as 2 Coalition seats ? She needs to go back to her obsession with the Manchurian Candidate and stick with what she is good at, telling us things that don’t matter.

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 17 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *