Federal election minus 29 days

Anthony Albanese in sick bay, ballot paper draws ready to go, and some public opinion data points of perhaps dubious provenance.

Facing seven days in isolation after testing positive for COVID-19, Anthony Albanese will “postpone a punishing schedule of marginal seat visits in the next week and instead do media appearances from home”, according to the ABC. That headline-grabber aside, there is also the following to report:

• The West Australian has a poll from Painted Dog Research showing Anthony Albanese leading Scott Morrison 54-46 as best leader to handle the economy, out of a sample of 1241 Western Australian respondents polled on Wednesday. Personal ratings were even better for Albanese in relative terms, his 38% approval and disapproval and 38% disapproval comparing with Morrison’s 26% and 55%. Asked “which is your least desired outcome from the election”, 39% went for a Coalition majority, 22% for a Labor majority and 39% for a hung parliament. It should be noted that this outfit’s accuracy has never been properly tested since it has never conducted voting intention polling, and its numbers are quite a lot difference from those of the last Newspoll breakdown, which gave both leaders a net rating of minus five in the state.

• In her weekly column in the Age/Herald, Niki Savva wrote yesterday that Liberal insiders weren’t raising their hopes far beyond a hung parliament, and believed themselves to be “in trouble in Bennelong, Reid, North Sydney and Wentworth in NSW, Chisholm and Goldstein in Victoria, Boothby in South Australia and a slew of seats in Western Australia including Curtin”. In the inner urban seats where the party faces an independent insurgency, Morrison’s net negatives were at “a horrendous minus 30” as the campaign began. Labor strategists acknowledged the possibility of a hung parliament, but believed the election was still “there for the taking”, depending on the quality of Anthony Albanese’s performance.

• The Greens are claiming they are poised to win the Brisbane seat of Griffith from Labor’s Terri Butler, based on 25,000 responses they have received through their door-knocking campaign. Labor may well be right when they dismiss this is a “Greens party hype campaign”, but the Greens claim the method provided an accurate measure ahead of their successes in the state seats of South Brisbane and Maiwar and the Brisbane council ward of The Gabba.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised enrolment statistics following the closure of the roll on Monday. Another milestone on the road to the election is reached with the ballot paper draws at noon today in each division, hopefully to be followed in the afternoon by the full publication of candidates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

858 comments on “Federal election minus 29 days”

Comments Page 1 of 18
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  1. So the timetable to expect is:

    Ballot paper draws at noon, publication of candidates in the afternoon, data dumps of candidates that have 2nd citizenships, have made offensive social media remarks in the past etc in the evening and then a bunch of resignations before nighttime?

    Or will the parties wait for Monday to leak their dirt files

  2. The LNP Brisbane City Council, ‘getting government out of people’s lives’:

    “The Greens candidate for the seat of Griffith has threatened legal action against Brisbane city council for ordering his supporters to remove election signs from their front yards.

    “The Brisbane council … introduced legislation last May capping election signs to 150 for each federal candidate and requiring residents to register their address with the council before erecting signs …”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/22/greens-vow-to-defy-brisbane-council-order-to-remove-election-signs-from-supporters-yards?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  3. “A Coalition water war has erupted in the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, with a Liberal candidate accusing the Nationals of “just reading from the talking points” on water policy.

    “The Nationals immediately hit back, accusing federal Liberals of voting with Labor, the Greens and the independents ….”

    If they can’t govern themselves …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/22/troubled-waters-divide-liberal-and-national-hopefuls-vying-for-victorian-seat-of-nicholls?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  4. Mattia Nelles
    @mattia_n
    ·
    35m
    A new Babyn Yar? New satellite recorded a mass grave in the Russian-occupied village of Mangush, which is less than 20 kilometers from Mariupol, where up to 9,000 Mariupol residents can be buried…

    https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1517218358017630209?s=20

    NATO must stop it’s indirect support for genocide by refusing to sell Ukraine weapons allowing it to liberate its people from the Russian fascists.

  5. I really hope Terri Butler hangs on in Griffith. The greens now have two state seats in inner Brisbane and a council seat. I am enrolled in Richmond where another high profile green is taking on a good female local member. Shame the Richmond candidate couldn’t try and knock off the Nat next door or the green in Griffith have a chop at Vasta who seems to be just there to make up the numbers. Greens with their double barrell names must appeal to the progressives who think ALP is too WC.

  6. “ The Solomons agreement is a pivotal moment in this campaign. There is no election in recent memory when a government has been struck by a foreign policy setback so great and so close to polling day.
    Morrison assures voters he is the best choice on national security but he asks them to judge him on promises, not results. Yet his agreement on nuclear submarines, with $5.5 billion spent on a scrapped plan, the design yet to be decided and the first boat a generation away, has already stretched the “trust me” pitch to its limit.
    The old message from the Liberals – that Labor cannot be trusted on defence – loses traction in these new circumstances. It is replaced by a question: could Labor be any worse?”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-s-defence-for-failing-to-stop-solomons-deal-is-not-good-enough-20220421-p5af0m.html

  7. Rakali @ #5 Friday, April 22nd, 2022 – 5:46 am

    Mattia Nelles
    @mattia_n
    ·
    35m
    A new Babyn Yar? New satellite recorded a mass grave in the Russian-occupied village of Mangush, which is less than 20 kilometers from Mariupol, where up to 9,000 Mariupol residents can be buried…

    https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1517218358017630209?s=20

    NATO must stop it’s indirect support for genocide by refusing to sell Ukraine weapons allowing it to liberate its people from the Russian fascists.

    NATO is giving weapons to Ukraine. Stop being an immature fool about this issue, Rakali.

  8. Mattia Nelles
    @mattia_n
    ·
    35m

    A new Babyn Yar? New satellite recorded a mass grave in the Russian-occupied village of Mangush, which is less than 20 kilometers from Mariupol, where up to 9,000 Mariupol residents can be buried…

    https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1517218358017630209?s=20

    NATO must stop it’s indirect support for genocide by refusing to sell Ukraine weapons allowing it to liberate its people from the Russian fascists.

    Your obviously not following this.

  9. Griffith is going green despite Terri Butler’s left position because she’s powerless to get her agenda up within the party. Refugee treatment is a big issue here and has kept labor in this seat for years. It should be no surprise adopting a turn back the boats policy has put the greens into poll position.

    After the 2019 election my partner contacted Terri Butler, concerned that Labor might walk away from policies including refugee and LGBTQ rights and raising the dole. She promised that it wouldn’t happen and offered to help us join the party to make sure we could keep those issues part of the discussion. However, we never heard from her again after that.

  10. “Prince Planetsays:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 6:24 am
    I really hope Terri Butler hangs on in Griffith. The greens now have two state seats in inner Brisbane and a council seat. I am enrolled in Richmond where another high profile green is taking on a good female local member. Shame the Richmond candidate couldn’t try and knock off the Nat next door or the green in Griffith have a chop at Vasta who seems to be just there to make up the numbers. Greens with their double barrell names must appeal to the progressives who think ALP is too WC.”

    I would put “progressives” in quote marks there. The Greens trade off class snobbery

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    According to The Age, Anthony Albanese will intensify media appearances in a bid to keep the Labor campaign in the national spotlight through radio, television and online interviews from home, with close aides saying he remains in good health.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-tests-positive-to-covid-election-campaign-plans-on-hold-20220421-p5af8u.html
    Morrison’s defence for failing to stop Solomons deal is not good enough, declares David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-s-defence-for-failing-to-stop-solomons-deal-is-not-good-enough-20220421-p5af0m.html
    Australia knew about a secret draft security pact between China and Solomon Islands weeks before it mysteriously surfaced on the internet, with several government sources claiming the nation’s intelligence agencies played a role in orchestrating the leak.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-knew-about-china-solomons-security-deal-before-it-was-leaked-20220421-p5af6c.html
    A decade of Solomons blunders rolled out the red carpet for Xi Jinping, writes Kevin Rudd who says Morrison has made Australia less secure, not more secure. Continuing his policies will ensure the Solomons won’t be the last island state to sign a security agreement with Beijing, but merely the first.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/a-decade-of-solomons-blunders-rolled-out-the-red-carpet-for-xi-jinping-20220419-p5aebh
    The SMH editorial calls for better diplomacy to be employed to curb China’s Pacific push.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/better-diplomacy-is-needed-to-curb-china-s-pacific-push-20220421-p5af70.html
    Election policies are being released every day, but there is no overarching vision to tie them together, writes Waleed Aly who is concerned at where politics has ended up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/phantom-campaigning-will-make-a-ghost-out-of-democracy-20220421-p5af33.html
    Unless major parties change, independents are here to stay, predicts Peter Beattie.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/unless-major-parties-change-independents-are-here-to-stay-20220420-p5aey2.html
    The Climate 200 candidates running in rich Liberal seats are new. But in terms of appeal, they are a reheated version of the now-defunct Australian Democrats, writes Phil Coorey.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/teal-independents-pick-up-where-the-democrats-left-off-20220420-p5aex5
    The Coalition and Labor don’t want to discuss the rising cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme because it’s too politically sensitive, says Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/everyone-blesses-the-ndis-20220421-p5af6h
    Frank Bongiorno tells us that history shows Australians have nothing to fear from a hung parliament.
    https://theconversation.com/could-the-2022-election-result-in-a-hung-parliament-history-shows-australians-have-nothing-to-fear-from-it-181484
    With the mainstream media more compliant than ever, there is a need for credibility from our journalists during the election campaigns, writes Paul Begley.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/now-is-a-crucial-time-for-journalists-we-can-trust,16282
    Scott Morrison’s cabinet considered legislative changes made to South Australia’s peak corruption agency in the context of its own proposed Commonwealth Integrity Commission, which, if adopted, would further weaken the federal government’s proposed integrity watchdog, reveals the AFR’s Michael Roddan.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-cabinet-weighed-up-weaker-watchdog-model-20220421-p5af5i
    The proposed federal anti-corruption commission wouldn’t catch pork-barrelling, or even an MP apparently doing a favour for someone with whom they may have been in a relationship. Or finding someone a cushy job, explains Michael Pelly.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/pork-won-t-fly-why-morrison-likes-the-sa-model-of-an-icac-20220419-p5aelf
    The survival of democracy depends on checks and balances, the possibility of corruption being exposed through an Independent Commission Against Corruption which will provide a vital check on rorting of the environment, argues David Shearman.
    https://johnmenadue.com/david-shearman-a-federal-icac-is-needed-to-protect-the-environment-and-climate-change-laws/
    Morrison says he’s sorry for comments about autistic children – maybe he is just relieved he doesn’t have to rely on a system that’s failing those who need it most, writes Luke Henriques-Gomes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/21/having-to-grapple-with-the-ndis-is-no-blessing-its-a-matter-of-government-policy
    Graham Richarson reckons Albo has got his mojo back.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/no-debate-about-it-albo-gets-his-mojo-back/news-story/4d3ba9e71a2065a189efc97c3ac347e7
    The NSW Coalition’s shaky grasp on government is under threat as a key independent warns he will no longer guarantee supply and confidence if Premier Dominic Perrottet continues to make damaging statements about transgender children and sport, says the SMH.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-s-minority-under-threat-key-independent-threatens-to-pull-support-over-transgender-comments-20220421-p5af4r.html
    Michelle Grattan writes, “Now, in the controversy over Katherine Deves, the Liberal candidate for Warringah who Morrison refused to dump despite a string of offensive social media posts, we have seen the prime minister fail a significant character test. Ignoring the public and private calls by Liberals – not all of them moderates – for Deves to be disendorsed, Morrison said on Thursday, the day nominations closed, “I’ve been in contact with Katherine again today, encouraging her”.”
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-scott-morrison-fails-the-character-test-posed-by-his-warringah-candidate-181715
    Greg Jericho is concerned that our major political parties – and the media – seem to have forgotten we’re heading for a cliff when it comes to temperature rises.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/apr/21/in-australias-election-campaign-the-silence-on-climate-is-deafening
    Guide Dogs Victoria appears to have broken federal law and could have its charity status disqualified with its CEO appearing in election advertisements heavily advocating Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, writes Anthony Klan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/josh-frydenbergs-dog-act,16283
    And now Rachel Dexter reports that photos of Josh Frydenberg posing with young Scouts will be removed from promotional material in the highly contested seat of Kooyong in Melbourne’s inner east after complaints about children’s images being used for political purposes. Josh has had his share of problems during this campaign!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/frydenberg-to-remove-scouts-from-campaign-material-20220421-p5af2a.html
    Australia must fix the design of employer sponsored visas to make them easier, faster and cheaper to use while increasing penalties for employers who misuse these visas, explains Abul Rizvi.
    https://johnmenadue.com/immigration-of-nurses-and-doctors/
    Michael Keating explains the stagnating living standards under Morrison’s watch.
    https://johnmenadue.com/stagnating-living-standards-under-morrison/
    Michaela Whitbourn reports that a friend and former comrade of war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith has admitted that a group of soldiers led by the pair in Afghanistan face a total of five murder allegations, including three first aired publicly yesterday. It looks worse by the day.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-s-friend-warned-him-of-defence-force-witch-hunt-court-told-20220421-p5af3a.html
    Channel Seven was billed almost $170,000 for the legal costs of three witnesses testifying on behalf of Ben Roberts-Smith in his defamation fight against war crimes allegations, including more than $65,000 over two years to pay for lawyers acting for his former patrol commander, a close friend. This is an interesting development.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/channel-seven-billed-170-000-for-legal-costs-of-ben-roberts-smith-s-witnesses-20220421-p5af4g.html
    In his recent addresses about China, especially in his National Press Club address in November last year and Nine newspaper in February 2022, Defence Minister Peter Dutton’s tough talk would not go down well with Chinese voters. It could cost the LNP votes in the marginal seats where Chinese votes make a difference, explains Teow Loon Ti.
    https://johnmenadue.com/teow-loon-ti-why-intemperate-views-on-china-will-cost-chinese-votes/
    Katherine Bennett tells us that the latest Covid rules changes are significant because they represent a move away from a rules-based approach to managing this pandemic and a shift towards the public health strategies usually used to combat infectious diseases: providing people with information they can use to mitigate a health risk, backed by diagnostic tools and treatment to manage disease.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/new-covid-19-rules-mark-a-shift-in-how-we-manage-pandemic-20220420-p5aetd.html
    Lucy Carroll writes that dozens of the country’s top doctors have backed calls for a crackdown on the scandal-tainted cosmetic surgery industry, with hundreds of submissions to the national medical watchdog as part of a landmark enquiry into patient safety. Well done 4 Corners for highlighting this blight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/top-doctors-back-calls-for-crackdown-on-cosmetic-surgery-cowboys-20220421-p5af1f.html
    Pay-as-you-feel restaurant Lentil as Anything may have traded while insolvent for three years – a potential criminal offence. What a performance!
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/lentil-as-anything-out-of-business-owing-staff-almost-400-000-administrators-reveal-20220420-p5aesr.html
    Almost eight weeks after Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, with military losses mounting and Russia facing unprecedented international isolation, a small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning his decision to go to war.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/kremlin-insiders-alarmed-over-growing-toll-of-putins-war-in-ukraine-20220421-p5af47.html
    We’re running out of time to hold Donald Trump accountable, writes Robert Reich who says the midterms will be a battle between his acolytes and supporters of fair elections
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/21/trump-republican-party-midterm-elections-democracy

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Fiona Katauskas

    Simon Letch

    Jim Pavlidis

    John Shakespeare


    Peter Broelman


    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark David

    Spooner

    From the US








  12. Rakali,
    This is from 2 days ago:

    The West is focused on sending longer-range weapons like howitzers, antiaircraft systems, anti-ship missiles, armed drones, armored trucks, personnel carriers and even tanks — the type of arms that President Biden said were tailored to stop “the wider assault we expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/19/world/europe/us-ukraine-weaponry.html#:~:text=The%20West%20is%20focused%20on,to%20launch%20in%20eastern%20Ukraine.%E2%80%9D

    The US has supplied Kyiv with Stinger anti-aircraft systems, Javelin anti-armour systems, Switchblade drones, air surveillance radars, Mi17 helicopters, 155mm Howitzers, etc. According to the Ukrainian Army, US Javelins, “causes panic” among Russian troops.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/russia-ukraine-war/story/russia-ukraine-war-american-weapons-supply-1939621-2022-04-20

    (The second article is from a publication that is no friend of the US)

    And here’s a picture of Ukrainian soldiers unloading weapons in Ukraine for proof:

  13. No need to wonder why India is conflicted re the war in Ukraine when the Russian Foreign Minister gives India Today an ‘exclusive interview’ and spews forth this gusher of propaganda:

    In an exclusive interview with India Today, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said the West’s desire to rule the world was to blame for the situation in Ukraine.

  14. The SMH editorial calls for better diplomacy to be employed to curb China’s Pacific push.

    = elect Penny Wong to be Australia’s Foreign Minister! Simples!

  15. “The Climate 200 candidates running in rich Liberal seats are new. But in terms of appeal, they are a reheated version of the now-defunct Australian Democrats, writes Phil Coorey.”

    Phil has stopped even pretending. The Democrats were an alternative to lib and labor. Labor without the unions libs with compassion. Ultimately not enough compassion because they GST’ed when they’d promised they wouldn’t and were rightly slaughtes.

    The Teals are conservatives through and through. They just didn’t drink the cool aid and follow the crazy.

  16. WWP,

    The strength of the Democrats was also in the Senate. They never did much good in the HOR.

    The Teal Independents are much more locally based and focussed.

  17. Thank you BK for the breakfast media wrap. Coffee and toast and BK, what a way to start the day. I nominate Deeves for dickhead of the week and Putin for dickhead of the year.

  18. Obvious when you think about it.

    “To generate power, CSP uses turbines like those at the heart of coal and gas fired power plants,” the company says in a statement.

    “A clutch can be added to disengage the generator, which remains spinning, from the turbine when it is not generating.

    “The spinning generator then acts as a synchronous condenser, providing ongoing system strength, inertia and voltage control services to support intermittent renewable energy such as solar PV and wind.”

    It notes similar clutches have been used on Tasmanian turbines, enabling hydro generators to operate as synchronous condensers.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/vast-solar-says-solar-thermal-plants-can-double-up-as-syncons/

  19. Real Mark Latham
    @RealMarkLatham
    ·
    1h
    Now we find out in the Oz today that Marles has Encouraged the Chinese takeover in the Pacific Islands.
    Whose side is he on?
    What else has he been doing with the Chinese?
    The new Dastyari.

  20. There was 50 Australians dead from Covid yesterday, with hundreds in hospital and ICU.

    Albanese has caught Covid and is isolating for 7 days.

    Morrison says ‘the pandemic is over’.

  21. Myself and OH have received our follow up PCR results. Negative. Out of isolation today.
    Will continue to mask up whilst out and about.

  22. ‘The strength of the Democrats was also in the Senate. They never did much good in the HOR.’

    Anyone knew why they were so popular in South Australia? I never understood the reasons behind that.

    One Nation in Queensland (decentralised larger regiomal/ rural population) and the Greens in Tasmania (forests) and then Victoria (tertiary educated Melbourne) you could understand.

  23. Great graphic from The Herald-Sun.
    The Daily Rupert may run it here, too.
    It would even be credible if it stated, “How many of the respondents actually watched the debate”.
    At least another laugh on a dull and wet (surprise, surprise) morning at Nth Avoca.

  24. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK.

    It is bad luck Albo has tested positive now, but at least it is at the end of a much better week for him, which will leave a positive impression in minds while he is away. He has momentum now.

    Meanwhile the issues of the day can be well handled for Labor by Wong and Chambers.

    By contrast several of the coalition cabinet are in hiding – witness protection? – notably Marise Payne avoiding questions about the Solomon Islands China policy fail.

  25. Socrates

    It is bad luck Albo has tested positive now, but at least it is at the end of a much better week for him, which will leave a positive impression in minds while he is away. He has momentum now.

    Agreed.

    Thank Christ it didn’t happen right after the Gaffe!

  26. BREAKING; #GuideDogsVictoria received $3.5 million in #JobKeeper and put exec pays up by 10% in 2021. Does this explain why #KarenHayes is such a Josh fan? Does this smell of corruption to you? More soon. #auspol #AusPol2022 https://t.co/S0yhXpddfM

  27. Getting Covid now, having regained his momentum and with the PM on the back foot over SI, Deves and yet another demonstration of his lack of empathy when wielding his evangelical language at inappropriate times is no bad thing really.

    He gets a 7 day R&R reset, with some timely soft radio and TV interviews, ScoMo can continue to stew i. His own juices and THEN: we are into the last 3 weeks of the campaign: the ones that actually matter.

  28. Bookies very similar this morning ..

    @TheKouk at 8.10am 22/4/22
    Sportsbet- ALP $1.70 LNP $2.10
    TAB- ALP $1.78 LNP $2.05
    Ladbrokes- ALP $1.78 LNP $2.00
    Betfair- ALP $1.85 LNP $2.20


  29. Sandmansays:
    Friday, April 22, 2022 at 7:44 am
    Thank you BK for the breakfast media wrap. Coffee and toast and BK, what a way to start the day. I nominate Deeves for dickhead of the week and Putin for dickhead of the year.

    When did she became a Trans? 🙂

  30. David Woo on the Solomon Islands:

    First and foremost I see this deal as a failure of the Morrison government in Australia. It shows that Australia has no idea about what’s going on in its own neighborhood. Canberra clearly had taken Solomon Islands for granted. However, I am not sure whether this will help or hurt Morrison in the election next month. Morrison has used the yellow peril very effectively for boosting his political support at home. This deal could help him emphasize his foresight in signing the AUKUS pact (even though the China-Solomon Island deal should be seen as Beijing’s response to the AUKUS pact). I don’t follow Solomon Island politics, but it seems to me that Prime Minister Sogavare wants to stay in power and was prepared to get the China to help. I imagine Canberra’s next step will be to help the opposition parties in Solomon Islands to remove Sagavare ..Havn’t we seen that movie somewhere recently :-).

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