Polling and other horse race news:
• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.
• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.
• The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.
• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.
• Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.
Nice-looking things on other websites:
• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.
• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.
• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.
Everything else:
• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.
• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.
• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.
Also:
• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.
SK
A diagnosis is not the end of the world.
In fact a diagnosis opens the doors to so many programs.
Most of these programs are not accessible without a diagnosis.
Meher baba
“I don’t think someone being offended by the voice of another person gives them the right to try to silence that voice.”
It never occurred to me that there was ever an intent to “silence that voice”. That seems to be the extreme claim of those that wish to justify their use of demeaning language. To diminish what seems to me to be a fair request not to demean and hurt, they use a pejorative term, cancel culture, to dismiss its value.
The aim is to moderate the language and prevent hurt and damage which doesn’t seem to be a bad thing. If a person can’t convey their message without humiliating others then perhaps they need to more carefully consider what it is they’re wishing to convey. This is perhaps even more so when the individual speaks from a position of some form of authority.
Snappy Tom @ #230 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 10:39 am
Agree. Yabba is about the most fundamental half wit on this blog. Ignore it – it is the Queen of the Bigots.
“Pisays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 12:49 pm
P1: “But that is already built. The Sun Cable is not.”
https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-boasts-830bn-pipeline-of-wind-solar-hydrogen-and-storage-projects/
“Australia boasts $830bn pipeline of wind, solar, hydrogen and storage projects”
If you don’t know anything about a subject, the trick is to try and learn about it first, .”
Hear, god damn fucking hear!
Payne and Colbeck hiding under the doona…
From scomos presser
Q: A number of retirees we spoke to at that retirement village said they are worried about the pension cut. It is clear your message it is just a Labor lie is not cutting through. What can you do now, will you go into it, launch a counterattack and maybe letterbox some pamphlets of your own, will you complaint a big tech? What do you do now?
C@T
Red13 says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 12:39 pm
C@t at 10:29
That was just beautiful!!!!
Plus one
‘Woke’ is a value judgment employed to belittle behaviours that are just common decency when applied to shared values, where the value isn’t shared.
For example if you respect people, including trans people using their preferred pronouns is just basic politeness.
When you are a bigot and quite happy to maximize the pain and suffering of people, but lack the integrity to actually say so, you attack polite people as woke. And yes it necessarily means AITA is affirmative.
And a flyer in our letterbox from “advanceaustralia.org.au”
Vote Greens, get Labor
Weak defence, weak economy and drugs legal
No doubt the Liberal Party of Australia is behind “advanceaustralia.org.au”
Got robopolled last night on my mobile (authorisation at the end said done by ALP), NSW seat of Page.
If an election held today, who would get your primary vote (LNP and ALP candidates by name)
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable view of Morrison, then Albanese
Requested age and gender.
Morrison spinning shit as usual
#auspol #ausvotes
PM reveals he told “close colleagues” about his discussions with Dom Perrottet – he didn’t leak text messages he said just told others who told journalists
Fingers crossed for Labor in Page.
Rex Douglas
“ Laura Tingle
@latingle
·
16m
The
@pressclubaust
election debate calendar is taking shape. The Treasury debate will take place on May 4 and Defence on May 5. Both the Foreign Minister & Aged Care Minister have declined to take part in debates. The invitations to Opposition’s spokespeople remain open.”
In their defence, their positions are after all indefensible. Let’s hope the opposition spokespeople or even Albanese himself take the opportunity.
I suspect Colbeck and Payne may be in the garage with Deves. They’ll be starting to run out of room in there soon.
“ PM reveals he told “close colleagues” about his discussions with Dom Perrottet – he didn’t leak text messages he said just told others who told journalists”
Begs belief, does not sound credible at all. Why would others tell journalists?
jt1983 @ #332 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 11:59 am
Being broadly correct is probably a factor there too. Just saying. 🙂
meher baba @ #379 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:37 pm
In the context of a government agency leveraging its power to ban literature and art, fair enough.
In the context of a discussion about ‘woke PC thugs’ on social media or wherever, “silence that voice” is just a derogatory label you’re throwing up on their free speech, in an attempt to silence them. You want one person to have freedom to offend, but you don’t want the person offended having freedom to voice their displeasure. Hypocritical is what that is.
No one has a right to silence anyone. Everyone has a right to try, to the extent that their attempts are limited to speech and civil methods such as petitions, boycotts, etc..
FROM the NYT
Mr. Sogavare has shown little interest in listening to Australia, the United States or other Pacific Island nations that have expressed concerns. In Parliament on Wednesday, after announcing that the security deal had been signed, he said: “I ask all our neighbors, friends and partners to respect the sovereign interests of Solomon Islands.”
His critics in government are now worried that challenging him with a no-confidence vote could lead to more protests and a pretense for requesting Chinese assistance. Just the threat of Chinese intervention is already undermining the country’s democracy, Mr. Sogavare’s opponents say.
“This agreement is not in the interests of Solomon Islands at all,” said Peter Kenilorea Jr., the deputy opposition leader in Parliament and chairman of its foreign relations committee. “It’s in the interests of Beijing and the interest of the current government. It’s to keep them in power.”
Fledgling SA Liberal leader David Speirs has declared there is “no need” for a conservative-driven recruitment drive targeting Evangelical Christian communities to continue, declaring he does “not want to see any political party in this state run by a particular religious organisation or faith”.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2022/04/21/speirs-calls-for-end-to-libs-divine-right-recruitment-drive/
here we go again: “Perhaps you could dedicate your time to a summary of the leadership changes in the Liberal Party since Menzies – and where the Liberal Party finds itself today, a Party which gives rise to splinter groups courtesy of such as Chipp, Steele Hall, Millhouse, Katter, Hanson, Palmer, Bernardi et al?”
Because you invited me, I’m happy to provide a few views on the Libs. The key fact in Labor’s history is that, until Hayden was removed in 1983, they had always been inclined to hang onto their leaders for longer than they should. Since then, there have been a number of leadership coups.
The conservative side of politics has always been much more volatile, other than for a prolonged period in the 1950s and early 1960s when Menzies retained full control of the Liberal Party both because of his consistent electoral success (including his very lucky victory in 1961) and by virtue of having founded the thing. The Libs have often removed leaders, sometimes replacing them with those of seemingly inferior quality (think McMahon, Downer and Abbott) but, other than the defeat of McMahon in 1972, they haven’t suffered too greatly as a consequence. They have also sometimes been able to bring the right leader in at the right time: Fraser in 1975, Howard in 1995, ScoMo in 2018.
I don’t include Abbott in 2009 on this list, as he was never the right leader for any political party at any time: he was incredibly lucky in having his opponents tear themselves to pieces, and also in having Credlin as his principal puppeteer. Once he actually became PM, he quickly collapsed under the weight of his own contradictions.
In terms of factionalism: the Libs have always had a moderate group, call them “wets” or “small ‘l’ liberals” or whatever, On the whole, this group has always been well looked after, particularly by Howard, who owed his elevation to the leadership in 1995 to the switch of a group informally led by Michael Wooldridge. The broad idea within the party has been to give the moderates some good portfolios, consult them carefully on sensitive issues, but try to keep them out of the party leadership. Gorton’s time in the leadership is still looked upon by some in the party as a terrible misstep, and Turnbull’s period at the top is looked at in much the same way. I think the saying goes something like that it is “better to have a right-wing leader reaching out to the centre than a centrist leader reaching out to the right.” Apart from anything else, it makes
Liberals I know tell me that, under Howard, Abbott and Minchin as sort of informal faction leaders for the far right started an active campaign to try to reduce the influence of the moderate wing of the party. And that’s when the religious nutters you have mentioned started to get welcomed and/or stacked into many local branches. Abbott is said to have told a party conference at some point “if you don’t like what’s happening, you’re welcome to resign and join the ALP.” I think this trend now poses serious problems for the Libs. ScoMo, modelling Howard, is trying to keep it all together (he’s religious, but not a member of the religious right faction), but it all looks to be falling apart. I’ve said before that, while I don’t think the long-term prognosis for Labor is all that great, it might well be better than that of the Libs if they veer strongly to the right. I have heard it said that the young future leaders coming through the lower echelons of the party are a pretty depressingly far-right sort of bunch.
As for the IPA, I think they are pretty much a fringe organisation. Yes, a few Young Liberals have wandered into jobs at the IPA, and then from the IPA into Parliament, although I don’t think they’ve gone into any particularly senior role so far. (Or did Costello perhaps once work briefly at the IPA? Does anyone here know?) But the ideas the IPA have typically promoted are strongly libertarian, and quite often at odds with the policies that the Libs would prefer to adopt. And, if the Libs are going to be increasingly in the thrall of the religious right, I reckon the gap between the party’s thinking and the IPA’s will grow further.
“Peter Dutton warns China will expand its presence in Pacific after Solomon Islands pact”.
Thanks for that blinding statement of the obvious. How about he actually does something to prevent it or are we just going to continually act surprised? Perhaps China will hold off until 2040 when, fingers crossed, we get our new submarines.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/peter-dutton-china-solomon-islands-presence-pacific/101004664
Believe it or not 😆
Responding to Oliver Sutton @ 5.03 am
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/21/federal-election-minus-30-days/comment-page-1/#comment-3872659
For me bringing the kingdom of god to the political arena would mean a government which genuinely supports society’s most marginalized and vulnerable; no longer rewards the acquisition of wealth based on the exploitation of others; which is open and honest about its decision making and weeds out all forms of self-interest and corruption; insists on a fair days pay for the employed and offers liveable support for those out of work and seeking employment; appoints individuals to positions of leadership based on their skill set, rather than who they know their status or their wealth; a government where truth matters and finally a “Kingdom of God” government would be one where its members agree with and live by Jesus’ teaching on leadership, such as “the first shall be last and the last first”, not to mention this from the Gospel of Matthew:
“But Jesus called them to Himself and said, “You know that the rulers of the Gentiles lord it over them, and those who are great exercise authority over them. Yet it shall not be so among you; but whoever desires to become great among you, let him be your servant. And whoever desires to be first among you, let him be your slave — just as the Son of Man did not come to be served, but to serve, and to give His life a ransom for many.”– Matthew 20:25-28, NKJV
Lars Von Trier @ #389 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:47 pm
Hey Larse how many of the coalition ministry will see defeat as their last term, and any ambitious backbenchers might have to wait another six years with any luck.
ItzaDream
“Beaton was the first opera voice I ever heard live”
SNAP!
I saw Beaton in Turandot in Canberra in the days when the Australian Opera used to do a 4 opera season there. Apart from a rather amateur production of Britten’s Albert Herring when I was at school in Scotland, it was what I would call the first “real” opera I ever saw. I was captivated and hooked for life. Beaton’s voice (and costume) were superb! From memory Donald Smith sang the role of Calaf.
From the review by John Cargher (of a performance in Melbourne):
““THE MOUSE THAT ROARED.”
I can think of no greater compli-
ment to pay Morag Beaton, who should
never have been asked to sing Turandot
yet acquitted herself better than anyone
had any right to expect.”
Turandot (with Nilsson and Corelli) was the second boxed set opera I bought, the first one being the Karajan recording of Götterdämmerung – straight in at the deep end 🙂
https://twitter.com/latingle/status/1516969557927538688
Laura Tingle @latingle
The @pressclubaust election debate calendar is taking shape. The Treasury debate will take place on May 4 and Defence on May 5. Both the Foreign Minister & Aged Care Minister have declined to take part in debates. The invitations to Opposition’s spokespeople remain open
What are the foreign/aged care ministers running from?
I also want to see how frydenberg handles chalmers
Meher baba
I was following right up until “woke PC thugs” which simply proved my point. An inability for those utilising such terms to control themselves or their arguments. It so diminishes them and detracts from what they may have to say.
What would you have the govt do cronus? Invade SI? Hand out cash to the SI parliament? Bomb Honiara? Cut the submarine cable?
This is a massive issue for australia thanks to the lnp:
https://twitter.com/MediaAnalystOz/status/1516970796232503296
Media Analyst @MediaAnalystOz
Chinese fighter jets stationed in the Solomon Islands could bomb Australia within ~90 minutes and land at China’s Port of Darwin The strategic vulnerability that Morrison’s failure has put us in cannot be overstated – This is a massive, massive failure by Morrison
mundo @ #374 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:34 pm
I was carrying over from last night, when Morrison went all ‘gracious’ agreeing that Labor had indeed started the big programmes (thinking he’d score points for being agreeable) but then reverted to form saying ‘they start these things, but only we can manage them’, smirk smirk. Too clever by half, because, as we know, the only was they manage them is by dismantling and privatising.
As Albo said, it’s always and only Labor doing the heavy lifting – ideas and implementation . But the idea that the Libs are the good guys making Labor’s ideas workable, is complete and utter bull shit. They actually do their best with double speak and slight of hand to undo them, in the guise of being fiscally responsible, because ideology, and privatisation, and mates.
Pi @ #395 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:49 pm
Good advice. You should probably listen to yourself. Here’s a good place to start – look up how much the Sun Cable will cost – relying on technology that doesn’t even exist yet at the necessary scale – and then compare that to the cost of the terrestrial transmission infrastructure that would be to connect the solar farm to the Australian grid. Make sure you have a bucket of extra zeroes handy for the comparison price.
Then come back and try and convince us that the Sun Cable makes economic sense. Note that I am not talking about the solar farm, but specifically about the Sun Cable.
ltep @ #415 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:06 pm
And so, how did the journalists get copies of the texts?
WWP: “For example if you respect people, including trans people using their preferred pronouns is just basic politeness.”
Can you remind me exactly when it was that JK Rowling refused to use someone’s preferred pronouns?
As I understand it, the heinous offence she committed was, as a second wave feminist, to have some philosophical/political views that were contrary to the LGBTIQ+ party line.
Maybe I don’t agree with her either, but I don’t think it reasonable for the people who claim to have been offended by what she said to embark on a campaign against her agent, her publisher, her translators and others.
I don’t think the best way to win a debate is to try to silence anyone who doesn’t agree with you.
iceyone444 @ #427 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:20 pm
How will the Chinese Aircraft Carriers be allowed to dock at the Chinese Port of Darwin for the Chinese Fighter Jets to land on?
Cronus: “I was following right up until “woke PC thugs” which simply proved my point. An inability for those utilising such terms to control themselves or their arguments. It so diminishes them and detracts from what they may have to say.”
Wonderfully put, except that – if you check back on my post – I never said “woke PC thugs”. I said “woke/PC stuff.”
I guess you did say you stopped following at that point.
meher baba @ #379 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 12:37 pm
You might be interested in this, longish, look at Patrick White with David Marr railing against the mid 20th C Australian attitude.
https://youtu.be/4E0AsNTVNAY
Quit while you’re only this far behind P1. The ‘questions’ you ask are covered in the link i provided. The fact is, you know nothing about this subject. Change that. Then talk.
For what it’s worth, I expect that NSW will have its own giga-scale energy facilities in western NSW by 2030. For less cost than just building a transmission system from NT.
Now that would be quite a sight.
Chinese fighter jets stationed in the Solomon Islands could bomb Australia within ~90 minutes and land at China’s Port of Darwin.
“I don’t think the best way to win a debate is to try to silence anyone who doesn’t agree with you.”
I agree, but I’m 100% fine with boycotts as a very legitimate form of free speech.
And you were right Rawlings went a whole lot further and rolled out a version of the old whole gay / trans / whoever must be criminal rapist paedophiles line.
Absolutely indefensible bigotry
Pi @ #435 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:25 pm
I wonder if you have even read your own link. Apparently not.
Okay mr renewables expert P1, how much will it cost to build a 3GW transmission system from NT to Sydney? chop chop. I haven’t got all day.
WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 1:29 pm
“I don’t think the best way to win a debate is to try to silence anyone who doesn’t agree with you.”
I agree, but I’m 100% fine with boycotts as a very legitimate form of free speech.
And you were right Rawlings went a whole lot further and rolled out a version of the old whole gay / trans / whoever must be criminal rapist paedophiles line.
Absolutely indefensible bigotry
________________________________________
When you said Rawlings, did you mean JK Rowling, or Deves. Deves has certainly come out with vile poisonous slurs against trans people; Rowling in my understanding, has not.
As for boycotts, as a personal expression that is fine. But a number of these boycotts have gained traction only when others who are not as committed, have been bullied, harassed and threatened into joining the boycott or saying stuff, by the boycotters.
Pi @ #439 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:34 pm
I’m supposed to do your homework for you now?
I wonder if this was an accident?
https://twitter.com/AndrewBrownAU/status/1516982522349223937
Andrew Brown @AndrewBrownAU
Just in: A car has rammed into the electoral office of Labor MP Terri Butler, before driving off
Ballantyne @ #423 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:16 pm
Great stories and memories. I didn’t know they went to Canberra. I didn’t know anything, and little more now. Donald Smith should have been magnificent. He was the real deal, when he was.
The late great Elizabeth Connell was another to take on Turandot late career, and blew them away.
Deep end indeed. I was a bit tip toey – Carmen and Tales of Hoffmann.
John Cargher and his Singers of Renown is sorely missed.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 11:49 am
Boerwar @ #286 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 11:27 am
If you are worried about the uncertainty, the venal horse trading, the corrupted outcomes, the insufferable grandstanding that goes with hung parliaments Vote 1 Labor.
Simple as that.
Minority Govts go okay in other countries.”
===============================
Belgium – Rexy’s wet dream.
“Player Onesays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 1:36 pm
Pi @ #439 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:34 pm
Okay mr renewables expert P1, how much will it cost to build a 3GW transmission system from NT to Sydney? chop chop. I haven’t got all day.
I’m supposed to do your homework for you now?”
You are the one who claimed it here
“and then compare that to the cost of the terrestrial transmission infrastructure that would be to connect the solar farm to the Australian grid. Make sure you have a bucket of extra zeroes handy for the comparison price.”
Surely that was actually based on something?
You want Pi to try to find a reference backing your claim that probably doesn’t exist
My god the derpiness levels
“As for boycotts, as a personal expression that is fine. But a number of these boycotts have gained traction only when others who are not as committed, have been bullied, harassed and threatened into joining the boycott or saying stuff, by the boycotters.”
They often say the same thing about unions and it is almost always a lie to try to disempower and stop collective action.
People are social beings there is nothing at all wrong with using lawful means of persuasion to grow a boycott.
“I’m the most empathetic person on the planet!”
Terri Butler
This happened a short while ago. No-one was harmed. Thanks for your concern, everyone.
#auspol https://t.co/BinJBWITBa
Ronni Salt
Except the Australian, which is very close to both men, stated very clearly the actual text messages themselves had been leaked.
They made no reference to a side conversation being leaked.
They said the text messages had been leaked.
So somebody is embroidering the truth. https://t.co/OI0yVlZBbi
I will say – the intersection Butler’s office sits on is busy and I imagine at risk from someone overshooting. The fact they buggered off is maybe a little telling.