Polling and other horse race news:
• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.
• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.
• The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.
• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.
• Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.
Nice-looking things on other websites:
• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.
• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.
• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.
Everything else:
• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.
• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.
• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.
Also:
• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.
The defenders of the establishment wish to run scare campaigns about minority Govt, but people will take the time to consider the level of incompetence and corruption the establishment Govts have dished up in recent decades and will logically be terrified of what the future holds if the establishment is allowed to keep on keeping on.
Lars at 1.19pm re Solomons
As you probably well know, but avoid because you want to excuse an inexcusable Coalition foreign policy stuff up, it is a matter of what the govt SHOULD HAVE DONE…
Not cut aid massively
Treat Pacific govts with respect
Do SOMETHING about climate change
Not make racist private comments
Sorry, the last one’s an impossibility for them.
The point, P1, is that YOU don’t know what you’re talking about.
The current project to simply upgrade the transmission infrastructure from SA to NSW is budgeted for $2.3B for less than half a GW in capacity. Money well spent IMO. Some real smarts in it.
https://infrastructurepipeline.org/project/project-energyconnect
How do I know this? My team is working on it. What’s your experience with delivering energy infrastructure P1? If you can’t even put a ballpark figure on your brain farts, maybe you should stop making them? For the record, that type of capacity build would cost tens of billions. So much that anyone who proposed it would be laughed at. It will be cheaper to simply build triple the infrastructure around the eastern regionals. Which is already happening. So here’s me, laughing at you. Ha. Ha ha.
On the Solomons, apart from the dissembling about what the Federal government did (inadequately) do on the Solomons issue in the past, the obvious question, given the current crisis, is what are they going to DO NOW?
Assuming there is no answer, I conclude that this serious national security problem can only be tackled by an incoming Labor government.
jt1983 at 1:48 pm
If the driver was ‘alcohol enhanced’ it would not be unexpected.
Pi @ #453 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:49 pm
The internet gave me the answer in about 1 minute. Have you heard of the internet? It’s a great invention. Look it up.
ar “In the context of a discussion about ‘woke PC thugs’ on social media or wherever, “silence that voice” is just a derogatory label you’re throwing up on their free speech, in an attempt to silence them. You want one person to have freedom to offend, but you don’t want the person offended having freedom to voice their displeasure. Hypocritical is what that is.”
Nope. I’m consistent on this. I’m a libertarian and I’m in favour of free speech. I have absolutely no problem with people voicing their displeasure at something – for that sake of argument – JK Rowling might have said. Get out in the street, wave signs, chant slogans, go for your life.
But I absolutely don’t like the idea that someone should be sacked, or have their creative products banned from sale, simply because they made a political comment with which I happen to disagree.
The political left used to be the strongest supporters of free speech and the political right was in favour of censorship and suppression of thought (think back, for example, to Robert Menzies’s attempt to ban the Communist Party). But the situation is far more muddied today.
@poroti – quite.
@pressclubaust
election debate calendar is taking shape. The Treasury debate will take place on May 4 and Defence on May 5. Both the Foreign Minister & Aged Care Minister have declined to take part in debates. The invitations to Opposition’s spokespeople remain open.
__________
Gutless bastards! Which other ministers will refuse to play ball?
“Player Onesays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 1:54 pm
Pi @ #453 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:49 pm
The point, P1, is that YOU don’t know what you’re talking about.
The internet gave me the answer in about 1 minute. Have you heard of the internet? It’s a great invention. Look it up.”
Fuck me, this dude is off the charts moron
S Tom:
Are you suggesting because of “climate change” inaction by Australia the SI govt signed a pact with China (the worlds worst climate change emitter)?
BK @ #459 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:55 pm
I suspect Lib HQ has ‘silenced’ them.
BK
Labor should just go ahead with the debates regardless of whether the gutless turn up or not.
Lars
“ What would you have the govt do cronus? Invade SI? Hand out cash to the SI parliament? Bomb Honiara? Cut the submarine cable?”
Thought we dealt with this yesterday no not sure why the retort but in any case, it seems all too late now. The horse has bolted but I certainly don’t expect the stable boy that allowed that to occur to fix it. Time at least for a new government to take the reins and simply attempt to fix a dreadful mistake. As for the rest of the Pacific, again, hopefully a new government will prevent that happening with those nations too though judging from Frank Bianimarana we won’t receive great hearings there either.
The simple fact is that the Coalition have botched our foreign relations with SI at least and apparently our popularity elsewhere too is not what we’d hope. Unsurprising given constant cutbacks in aid and representatives to these nations. Improving aid and genuine concern and assistance would be a start.
WWP: “And you were right Rawlings went a whole lot further and rolled out a version of the old whole gay / trans / whoever must be criminal rapist paedophiles line.”
Can you find a source for this one too?
I have a recollection of Rowling expressing concern about men convicted of the rape of women having the right to declare themselves transgender after sentencing and thereby compel the Scottish justice system to put them straight into a women’s prison. And, shoot me, I can’t help feeling that she might possibly have had a point in relation to this issue.
But perhaps she said some worse stuff than this. Can you please provide some quotes?
ltep
“Fingers crossed for Labor in Page.”
I live in this electorate and am interested in your comment. What are your thoughts?
Rex
People can’t deliberately vote a minority government in.
Ironically, I recall being at a Business Group function over 30 years ago where the guest speaker was McCrann (who had obviously had a few prior)
He carried on about Australia being invaded thru PNG and that the invading forces would be entrenched on Australian soil without us knowing they were there
The evening host actually apologised to me for the standard of the guest speaker address
Indonesia, the Phillipines, China and other Nations are all a part of the Region in which Australia is located
And who are the largest trading partners of each of those other Nations – and with Australia?
Then you get to the Belts and Roads investment by China – which has been in operation for over 10 years now and the amount China has invested into protecting its trading status thru that medium
There are many Chinese/Australians who do business with China (and then you have the Chinese/Australian associations promoting culture and trade interactions)
This is the World we live in – it is complex with all the interactions and the parties to those interactions (including government)
meher baba says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 12:37 pm
Cronus: “PC is about saying what you want but in a manner that isn’t hurtful or demeaning to others.”
Now come on, you known that there’s a fair bit more to the woke/PC stuff than this. Or, at least, the proponents have greatly expanded the definition of “hurtful or demeaning” beyond what most people would have previously considered those words to mean.
I grew up in an era when great works of literature were still banned in Australia because they were felt by someone in a position of authority to be “offensive.” I don’t think someone being offended by the voice of another person gives them the right to try to silence that voice.
—
This is exactly the sort of nonsense that the right peddles.
There’s a massive difference between “PC is about choosing your words to avoid being hurtful” and “PC is about silencing people because you consider something offensive”. There’s also a massive difference between “People aren’t allowed to say things because of political correctness” and “People who intentionally offend are called out for it”.
It’s like the nonsense about “cancel culture”, which is also known as “consequences of your actions”.
Let’s use the whole “blessed” controversy, as well as the Deves issue, to make the points that are relevant here.
Nobody has told Scott Morrison that he can’t say he’s “blessed” to have two children who are not disabled. What they’ve said is that it’s not a good thing to say, that it implies that you’re not blessed if you have a child with a disability, and that saying that in response to someone informing him about the difficulties they faced with the NDIS and wanting to know what they can expect regarding those issues should the government be re-elected.
Notice the difference. He has every right to say it, and people have every right to be upset with what he said. But the right will assert that this is about being “PC” and “Woke”, and that they’re being stopped from saying these things. And they’re suggesting it’s “cancel culture” because he’s facing some consequences for what he said. Also notice that the impact is very minor – a few articles mentioning his poor choice of words.
Now, onto Deves. She has said things that are blatantly offensive on many fronts, including likening Trans activists to the Nazis during the holocaust, for example, which is offensive to a wide swath of people. And now the right are claiming that she’s being “silenced”… of course, what they don’t mention is that it’s her own leader doing the silencing, while simultaneously claiming to be standing with her. The media would happily have her on to explain/apologise/double down.
The truth is, the only ones who actually try to silence people for “political correctness” purposes are the right wing. The right wing were so offended by Yassmin Abdel-Magied’s offhand comment around Anzac day that they drove her out of the country. It wasn’t mere criticism, and they did it *after* she had removed the offensive bit and said “It was brought to my attention that my last post was disrespectful, and for that, I apologise unreservedly”.
That’s the issue. The right throws accusations like “PC”, “Woke”, and “Cancel Culture”, but the right are also the only ones actually doing what they accuse the left of doing. The left call for consequences. The right call for destruction.
Socrates,
1. Sogavare wants to delay elections for 12 months despite his term ending next year.
2. There is a lot of internal opposition to Sogavare including from the largest island (which is pro-Taiwan)
3. The US after 26 years is going to have an embassy in Honiara
The obvious thing would be to up the diplomatic efforts, maintain and increase aid and see if SI politics removes Sogavare at some point in the next 18 months.
Undoubtedly Labor will try and make hay with SI, but the obvious question is what is Labor’s true policy on China? It says it is aligned with the current government on China but both Bob Carr and Paul Keating seem to favour a much more conciliatory approach to China or have made public statements to that effect.
I would think Labor wont say much more about SI unless China shows up in force in the next month – how that plays out who knows?
Colbeck and Payne held a joint news conference to explain the reason for their decision
Lars, Lars, Lars at 1.56pm
I gave you a list. As you know, the list applies.
zoomster says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 2:01 pm
Rex
People can’t deliberately vote a minority government in.
—
Individuals can’t, but the collective “people” can.
S Tom : – I gave you an extract from the NYT explaining the situation. Please review it and come back then if you have any further comment.
I wouldn’t volunteer to debate Wong either….I am happy with the number of holes I have!
Ventured out in McGowanistan to find that Morton is stepping up his signage in Tangney.
First there were the bus stops months ago, then the small signs on front lawns in recent weeks and today we have 5m long banners, the type usually seen on fences at polling paces, on several lawns in busy places.
This is a guy who has barely campaigned in past years and is on a near 10 per cent margin.
The polling must be diabolical.
Christ Almighty. He has apologized! His PR team has told him it is costing him votes in marginal electoraes.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/scott-morrison-criticised-disability-comments-leaders-debate/101004108
“The biggest mistake in the campaign so far was the decision to start so far out from election day. As each day goes by, the truth about Morrison and his incompetents becomes more and more apparent.”
I agree Granny. A long campaign will be a blessing for Albo I think.
Woke is a strange word which I have only just heard of… seems to mean too aware now. I knew it as the opposite of sleep.
“Scott Morrison says he is “deeply sorry” that a comment he made during last night’s leaders’ debate that he was “blessed” not to have a child with disability caused offence, saying he did not intend it that way.”
Apparently this issue has bitten quite deeply. So deeply in fact that the man who has great trouble uttering the word sorry is actually deeply sorry. It would appear that this is more of an issue than some would have us believe, presumably because it reinforces the beliefs of many Australians about Morrison. Finally his advisers have prevailed with commonsense.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/scott-morrison-criticised-disability-comments-leaders-debate/101004108
Socratessays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 1:51 pm
Assuming there is no answer, I conclude that this serious national security problem can only be tackled by an incoming Labor government.
_____________________
Wong will be way out of her depth and hasn’t Marles appoiinted himself Defence Minister.
China will be ecstatic with that pair.
You know what China will actually be ecstatic with? What just happened in the Solomon Islands on this government’s watch.
A good read on this from Bernard Keane in Crikey today.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/04/21/the-solomon-islands-debacle-finally-registers/
GlenO
The left would be in stronger position to push back against the right if it didn’t then condone casual racism and sexism because the right plays on it.
mb
But perhaps she said some worse stuff than this. Can you please provide some quotes?
_________________________________
I asked WWP about this before and he ignored the question, choosing to answer a separate point about boycotts. I hope you have better luck than me.
WB
I agree. Took advantage of a government asleep at the wheel again.
meher baba @ #457 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 1:54 pm
Doesn’t the first thing fall under the employer’s broad purview to control its brand and image? People are sacked for things they make public all the time. Whether it’s a post slamming their working conditions, or with a photo of them drunk/high/in the middle of an orgy, or expressing something stupid about migrants/blacks/Jews/gays/women/Muslims/whatever.
Why should one of those enjoy special protection, while the other examples remain (uncontroversial, as far as I’m aware?) grounds for termination? Or are you saying that employers should have no legal avenue for sacking an employee over anything they may have said/done publicly outside of working hours?
I’d be okay with that latter scenario, actually. But having a carve-out specifically for “expressing something stupid about migrants/blacks/Jews/gays/women/Muslims/whatever” doesn’t fly, imo. Either employers are entitled to manage the perception of their brand by dismissing staff they deem problematic for whatever reason, or they’re not.
Also, what determines if a comment is “political”? If someone goes public with how much they hate trans people, are they making a political statement simply because one political party has made campaigning against imaginary PC fascists a thing, even though whatever they’re posting about trans people has no relationship to any sort of actual policy position on anything within the government’s sphere of influence?
Lars at 2.08pm
I have not received such a gift from you. If you do post a link to said NYT article and it’s behind a paywall I will also be unable to complete my assignment.
“ The signing of the China-Solomon Islands security treaty is one of the worst days for our national security since the end of the Vietnam War.”
Greg Sheridan seems to be in no doubt as to the significance of this issue.
Victoria, about a week ago you implied in a couple of posts that something big was about to drop in the next couple of weeks that would send the Liberals reeling. Did I read you correctly? If so, can you elaborate?
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 2:11 pm
“Scott Morrison says he is “deeply sorry” that a comment he made during last night’s leaders’ debate that he was “blessed” not to have a child with disability caused offence, saying he did not intend it that way.”
—
The quote itself:
“But I can appreciate particularly that some of the ways it was communicated, and the way it was sought to be represented by our political opponents in the middle of an election, that it could have been taken in different context and I’m deeply sorry about that.”
He’s deeply sorry that his political opponents sought to represent it as offensive.
It’s a non-apology apology. Standard Morrison fare when he DOES use the word “sorry”. It’s basically “I’m sorry you were offended”.
GlenO
Not deliberately.
meher babasays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 1:13 pm
“As for the IPA, I think they are pretty much a fringe organisation. Yes, a few Young Liberals have wandered into jobs at the IPA, and then from the IPA into Parliament, although I don’t think they’ve gone into any particularly senior role so far.”
James Patterson, Tim Wilson etc,etc.
LNP incubator for many, many decades.
Cronus @ Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 2:11 pm
Thanks. Just watched the video. Morrison trips up when saying the word “apologised”. Not a word he is familiar with saying out loud perhaps? Although I defer to more expert Bludgers here.
Taylormade
You’ve taken puerile to even greater depths. I’m surprised you didn’t follow up with na née na née na na.
Apropos nothing much, at the time of the Rudd-Howard election, a more mature woman was asked what she thought of Rudd. Clearly a Liberal supporter, she said she thought he was a nice man and but what he needed was at least three more years in opposition so that he “could learn how to be a Prime Minister”….
This is the guff the media have turned to, despite Albanese 27 years in Federal Parliament. We don’ seem to hear so much of “Who is the Real Anthony Albanese?” now from them, because, of course, everybody knows who Morrison really is, and 2/3rds of the electorate don’t want him….
Mick,
Having a blessed baby is the opposite of sleep.
Well said WB, Bernard Keanes’ article is required reading for any here interested in the subject.
Lynchpin
“ Victoria, about a week ago you implied in a couple of posts that something big was about to drop in the next couple of weeks that would send the Liberals reeling. Did I read you correctly? If so, can you elaborate?”
I’m not sure that China hasn’t trumped Victoria in the surprise stakes. I must admit I too was teased, was it possibly financial Victoria?
Themunz: “James Patterson, Tim Wilson etc,etc.
LNP incubator for many, many decades.”
They’re both quite recent, and both of them qualify under my definition of not being in a particularly senior role. Can you name any others? (I’m genuinely interested.)
@rossmcg
Morton has been such a lazy and absent local member. He deserves to lose but I fear the election has come 6 months too late to really cash in on the pro labor sentiment in WA. Hopefully I’m wrong. Great labor candidate who is very impressive on the campaign trail.