Polling and other horse race news:
• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.
• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.
• The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.
• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.
• Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.
Nice-looking things on other websites:
• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.
• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.
• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.
Everything else:
• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.
• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.
• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.
Also:
• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.
Snappy Tom,
I’m sure BK feels blessed to be still doing birthdays.
It beats all the alternatives.
Lars at 10.17am
The Coalition has a long history of doing this country over.
They are a clear and present danger to our economy, national security and fabric of life.
Morrison has certainly not been blessed by good looks. But then again, I’ve known very ugly people who wouldn’t change a thing. They think they are beautiful.
Griff: “My thoughts are that Australia would have been the better for it if Hewson won. ”
I assume you have never had any personal engagement with Dr Hewson.
Regarding Morrison,
Leanne Tonkes
@leannetonkes
Replying to
@TamePunk
It’s still unclear to me if he’s
1. tactless
2. ignorant
3. insulting
4. cruel
5. all of the above
When it came to the NDIS Morrison kept making a signal about being able to afford services. He did not make signals about being able to afford pissing away $5.5 billion on subs, $3 billion on Taipan helos, $1.3 billion on armed drones or pissing away $39 billion in JobKeeper to the Big End of Town.
It was, sotto voce, the same line that Ruston was far more honest about: Morrison secretly believes that the ‘services’ heading of the credit card is already maxed out.
LVT: “Meher Baba, as Bill Shorten said “the universe doesn’t grant do-overs””
The universe certainly did Bill over in 2019. Or, at least, the electorate did.
And some would say that Bill did Julia over in 2007.
jt1983says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:20 am
@Sandman – the issue is for every one percent of primary vote they’re losing to anyone else, they’re probably only getting a maximum 0.6-0.7% of that back – that also means, IF Labor is in fact peeling away votes directly from the Liberals, Labor is also a beneficiary of the Liberal PV shedding.
—
Thanks for your response JT. Encouraging observations.
meher baba @ Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:24 am
I have not had the pleasure. I do try to avoid politicians whenever and wherever possible 🙂
meher baba says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:24 am
Griff: “My thoughts are that Australia would have been the better for it if Hewson won. ”
I assume you have never had any personal engagement with Dr Hewson.
______________
What sort of a Labor supporter would happily do without Keating’s agenda? A very strange one I’d suspect.
Except to the very very limited extent the actual facts are anti-LNP the ABC hasn’t been anti-LNP in decades.
In fact every single journalist there betrayed their profession over the last 20 years because they treated deliberate conspiracy theories as equivalent or better than actual science.
You can’t get much more pro-LNP and fail so badly at basic journalism without working directly for Murdoch.
Happy Days BK. Blessed with another year it seems! And so then are our mornings.
My own personal experience goes right back to the womb with my second child. I wasn’t having a ‘normal’ pregnancy, I was taking on water worse than the Titanic, so I had my Tri Test done and the score was through the roof. Then, out of the blue one day I received a phone call from a doctor at the Maternity Hospital who I wasn’t familiar with. He wanted to speak to me about my Tri Test scores. He recommended to me that I have an abortion because he said my child would be so severely malformed that it would be extremely difficult for me to cope with him.
I told him to fuck off out of my life and to leave me to deal with my child, thank you very much! I would be going through with the pregnancy to term. So they put me in hospital until my baby was born. He was born alive but had to be bagged as soon as he was out of the womb and then placed into Neo Natal Intensive Care for his first 3 months, especially as he Failed to Thrive, had Hepatitis and found it hard to drink, let alone breast feed due to a Cathedral Palate.
This started my journey out of work and into being the Carer for my son as he went in and out of hospital 24 times in his first 18 months and once into Intensive Care for a week. Not to mention the decades of surgery and corrective Orthodentics appointments we had to go to. Speech Therapy. Occupational Therapy. Ultrasounds every 3 months to see if he had developed an aggressive Kidney Sarcoma associated with his Congenital condition. And on and on until he had had everything done that could be done and he was ‘in the clear’.
And I wouldn’t swap a day of my life with him for all the money in the world. He has taught me so much about making the best of your lot in life. Plus he has a wicked sense of humour that has brightened my darkest days.
I am truly blessed to have had him and to continue to have him in my life.
Stop being such a piss weak whinger, Dutto. I am sick of your FUD. DO SOMETHING. YOU ARE THE GOVERNMENT.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/peter-dutton-china-solomon-islands-presence-pacific/101004664
“Player Onesays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:54 am
The Revisionist @ #113 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 9:13 am
How, after 9 years of climate change action stalling coallition government could anyone remotely actually concerned about climate action want anything other than their electoral routing?
And how, after a careful examination of both sides utterly inadequate policies on climate change, could anyone want anything other than the Independents and minor parties to force the major parties into action?”
Because your “analysis” is just the nonsense of a narcistic fool more interested in feeling superior than having their country actually on the side of global climate action rather than blocking it.
The only thing that ultimately matters in terms of Australia acting on climate change (as with the last few elections) is that Labor wins government and the Coalition are removed from government.
“It is only really a 73 LNP -72 Labor -6 (Other) result where there is decent chance of going straight back to the polls.
See? It is possible for you to answer a simple question without being rude. I guess you just had to get the bile out of your system first.”
You deserve rudeness.
The undeniable fact is that this requires Labor to convince a majority of people in a majority of seats to vote Labor. They need to do this in the context of historic fosil fuel dependent communities and completely hostile media. The Green supporters carping at Labor oppositions trying to win government only make this job harder.
And here you are actually cheering on a hung parliament – implicitly wanting more climate change action resisters in parliament than would be the case if Labor won a sweeping majority.
Shameless
Graham @ #83 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 8:37 am
In other words, you have seriously compromised thought processes, based on the assumption that myths are true, and a belief that the universe is about 7,000 years old, and that some time quite soon you are going to fly up into the sky. How sweet!
Good morning, I hope we’re all feeling blessed today, especially out blessed pm. May the blessings of the day befall him.
Can’t wait for Anzac Day I half expect him to walk up to a cenotaph and say “shit happens’
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:29 am
And I wouldn’t swap a day of my life for all the money in the world. He has taught me so much about making the best of your lot in life. Plus he has a wicked sense of humour that has brightened my darkest days.
I am truly blessed to have had him and to continue to have him in my life.
_________
Beautiful C@t.
If you want real climate action, Vote 1 Labor.
The answers to all the other questions are ‘Angus Taylor’.
It is that simple.
ST : – I cant see the next 3- 5 years being good for anybody whatever the political outcome. A second ScoMo term would be a disaster and I think Albo will be a weak leader with a small or negligible/non existent majority.
Absent a decisive repudiation of the Liberals the same politics will continue to apply. Labor in 2007 was fearful of everything because they had a small majority , a la the mining tax, climate change etc.
The economic and security trends aren’t great either.
Labor does seem to win when things are about to go down the shitter – so here we are.
I think Morrison’s ‘blessed’ comment goes to his inability to empathise.
He couldn’t hear the mother’s pain/concern. Instead he ‘self-referred’.
It is usual for us to ‘self-refer’ – finding common ground with others in our own experience – but Morrison CONTRASTED his experience with hers.
Months ago, Grace Tame (I think) criticised Morrison for his story about Jen telling him he had to think about the Brittany Higgins ‘situation’ [seems too trite a word, sorry] as a father of daughters. Grace maintained one shouldn’t need to be a parent to know what happened to Brittany was just plain wrong.
The ‘blessed’ thing adds to Morrison’s deserved reputation as ’empathy deficient.’
If I were his Empathy Coach (I’m singularly unqualified) I’d write a report card ‘can do better’…
nath @ Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:27 am
Not sure nath. If you are referring to me, I didn’t have Labor as my first preferences in the last election 😉
Boerwar
Be patient, Dutton is busy delaying the submarines. It will all be sorted by 2040.
https://youtu.be/4yvC8-Y4hk0
For you, nath. 😉
“Boerwarsays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:32 am
If you want real climate action, Vote 1 Labor.
The answers to all the other questions are ‘Angus Taylor’.
It is that simple.”
That’s actually a very accurate and succinct way of putting it
A re-elected Coalition government would mean Angus Taylor back at the next global climate summit directing Australian diplomatic resources to undermine climate action.
A Labor government would result in Australia proactively pulling in the right direction.
How the fuck people can’t see this?
Player One @ #103 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 6:59 am
😆
Morrison can’t make a deal because he would lose MP’s on his own side if he proposed anything stronger both on climate and an ICAC.
Labor is the only Party that will start acting on both these issues at a federal level.
Have the Teals said they wouldn’t support Labor’s policies?
Thanks C@t …The Hermit Cave thing is self-parody or maybe irony…but a constant reminder of Morrison’s big mouth…as PM of New South Wales….
Have a fabulous birthday BK and may you have many more of them.
Can’t start my day without your dawn patrol and a cuppa.
‘Socrates says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:35 am
Boerwar
Be patient, Dutton is busy delaying the submarines. It will all be sorted by 2040.’
—————————————————–
Xi and the Chicommies have nailed conquering Taiwan to the mast. Due date 2049 – the hundredth anniversary. Xi would be 96 by then.
My view, FWIW, is that the pattern of naval ship builds, type of vessels, projected build completion date, commissioning and integrated invasion training makes the probably date look a whole more like 2030 than 2049.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:32 am
If you want real climate action, Vote 1 Labor.
The answers to all the other questions are ‘Angus Taylor’.
It is that simple.
————-
Indeed!
At the end of the day, no matter how ‘alternative’ a Teal is, they are either a supporter of Scott Morrison, Angus Taylor, Barnaby Joyce, Matt Canavan and the rest of the corrupt gang or NOT.
Yabba at 10.30am
Fuck off.
Graham, feel free to ignore Yabba – the choice is entirely yours.
Mr Speaker! Mr Speaker!….Wendy and I are blessed….!(While all you other disbelieving bastards are bound for elsewhere…….)
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:35 am
https://youtu.be/4yvC8-Y4hk0
For you, nath.
___________
I’d never seen that before. Terrific.
Yabba seems to have some bizarre complex about people having different beliefs to them.
As long as people don’t impose their beliefs onto me or others I say, believe what you want to believe.
Yabba gives atheists a bad name.
If I was his Empathy Coach, I’d be searching for a less stressful job.
Nath:
Yabba makes me embarrassed to be an atheist.
He has also come close to ruining Tim Minchin’s amazing “Pope Song” for me.
I found this brief history of the Russian attitude to Ukraine very enlightening.
—————
“War of memes: why Z-war won’t end with peace
Some Western analysts unfamiliar with Eastern European cultural context perceive Z-war as an accident. They presume that Russian invasion results from some sort of “misunderstanding” or mistake which can be resolved via negotiations.
………
You may want to stop this war ASAP, but it’s not up to you to decide. It’s up to Russia which invaded Ukraine for a reason. And this reason remains irrespective of Putin or Zelensky, CSTO or NATO, Siloviki or Mail. It’s not a war of regimes. It’s a war of memes.”
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516162437455654913.html
Asha says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 10:46 am
Nath:
Yabba makes me embarrassed to be an atheist.
________
Me too. We are supposed to be the ones that aren’t unhinged! He’s missed a memo.
Asha @ #235 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 8:44 am
I’d certainly be looking for some empathy.
Congrats BK for completing another lap of Sol.
Liberal candidate Katherine Deves believes there’s a link between cross-dressing men and trans women being “sexual predators, even serial killers”.
The candidate that Prime Minister Scott Morrison insists “should not be silenced” also believes that gay men who have surrogate babies are engaged in “human rights violations”.
In the latest unearthed tweets from her now deleted Twitter account, Ms Deves also suggests the “transabled” – people pretending to be disabled – “is a thing”.
“Didn’t (serial killer) Ted Bundy pretend to be injured to garner sympathy,’’ the Liberal hopeful wrote on September 4, 2021.
Just 24 hours after that post, she then suggested a link between cross-dressing and being a serial killer.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/liberal-candidate-katherine-deves-claimed-link-between-crossdressing-and-serial-killers/news-story/b29c85d8df1e874ebc703ae5d2fb8dd1
This is interesting
https://australianpolitics.com/elections/primary-votes/primary-votes-house
2019
Labor 33.34
Liberal 27.99
National 4.51
LNP (QLD) 8.57
Greens 10.40
Other 13.24 – United Australia Party 3.43, Independents 3.37, One Nation 3.08, Animal Justice 0.82, CDP 0.68, Fraser Anning 0.54, KAP 0.49, Centre Alliance 0.33, Shooter, Fishers & Farmers 0.29, CLP 0.27, Sustainable Australia 0.25, LDP 0.24
This suggests that the eventual minor party/3rd voice primary vote will approach or even possibly exceed 3/10 . These voters divide roughly 2:1 as Lib-leaning or Labor-leaning. They will certainly – between them – decide who wins the election. The Lying Reactionaries are clearly losing their ability to marshal the support of their past plurality. This is not new. It has been developing for many years and is now quite pronounced. The order is changing.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese fronting the media.
He’s attacked Scott Morrison for not showing up when the residents of Gilmore needed him most (Black Summer).
Also continued attack on government’s handling of the Solomon Island/China security pact
@canberratimes
As Albo was visiting Gilmore, I was hoping to see P1 astride the tanker a la Cher warbling, “If I could turn back time” just for old times sake.
Albo killing this press conference again
“In other words, you have seriously compromised thought processes, based on the assumption that myths are true, and a belief that the universe is about 7,000 years old, and that some time quite soon you are going to fly up into the sky. How sweet!”
yabba, maybe consider…….just cause you hold an opinion, doesn’t actually mean you HAVE to express in such a pointlessly rude way. That one says more about you than him.
Mr Speaker, Mr Speaker
– We are “blessed” that our house wasn’t burnt to ground during the bushfires
-We are “blessed” that our relatives didn’t die in nursing homes during the ongoing corona virus debacle.
– We are “blessed” that our house wasn’t destroyed by the recent floods
-We are “blessed” that our children were born without a disability
-We are “blessed” that none of our relatives live on $46 bucks “a week”
– We are “blessed” that our children are heterosexual {so far] so they don’t have to deal with homophobia in the Church or the wider community
-We are “blessed” because we are good Christian folk and the Lord rewards his faithful servants.
Speaker: Shut the fuck up will ya.
nath @ #156 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 9:56 am
Do you think it was shorn of its religious implications when used by Scott Morrison. How many religious crazies use it all the time? Like the survivors of a church collapse in an earthquake in the Philippines, ignoring the 73 others who were died or maimed. How many of your historical references were ‘shorn of their religious implications’? If ‘blessed’ means lucky, then ‘miracle’ means pure bloody arse, except in the minds of those of ‘faith’, ie those with irrational beliefs.
It is not possible for ‘blessed’ to ‘shorn of its religious implications’, because it implicitly contains religious implications, ie they are immutably implicit in both its etymology and meaning.
imacca @ #246 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 10:53 am
+1
Morrison’s inability to apologise and just dig in… is such a problem for his campaign.
The reaction to what was said last is everyone else’s problem. In the words of many here FMD.