Polling and other horse race news:
• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.
• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.
• The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.
• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.
• Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.
Nice-looking things on other websites:
• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.
• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.
• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.
Everything else:
• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.
• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.
• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.
Also:
• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.
Should the NDIS be unlimited? Any disability gets funded?
C@t
Rosemary Wynter is an Anglican priest..
———
Shouldn’t she be a priestess?
As, for an example, the C of E have deaconesses.
I don’t know who is ALP Communications Shadow, but I want ABC and SBS merged, with control given to SBS!
Their frickin’ ABC…!
“ I’ve just checked out the NSW cross bench and 2 of the 11 are ‘Liberal/Independents’ – by virtue of ICAC.”
1. Gareth Ward?
2. John Sidoti?
Funny thing: I saw Sidoti and … Bruz himself … having coffee together in Macquarie St last month! On a day that Bruz’s defo case against Google kicked off. Both seemed very chipper.
“Should the NDIS be unlimited? Any disability gets funded?”
Yes. Obviously.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 8:03 pm
___________________________
Have you made your peace with Minns?
Lars and Nath (yes you Nath)
If I have 2 matters to personally refer to a FICAC for sitting ministers. All financial/nepotism related. What is going to happen if there is a change of Gov? How can we make sure there is a solid opposition medium term, as a McGowan situation is not in the medium term interests of the country, in my view.
I’ve only had exposure recently to 2 portfolios. So have no idea how broad the integrity issues are. But am worried about the right side of politics atm and how a FICAC will play out.
And if you want to know I’m honest. I can confirm both Frydenberg and Hunt are amazingly short. But neither have integrity issues.
Should note, if a FICAC existed in 2010, I’d have one for labor too. But it’s a long time ago now.
That said, I feel the issues are bad enough in the current gov, that one term in opposition and a period of renewal will be in the long term interests of the right.
How does Australia cleanse the rot, without wrecking a contested political space (which is just as bad).
I actually think no retrospective powers would be in the nations interest.
The ABC pointing out that the Coalition has no plans to extend the cashless debt card to pensioners is just good journalism.
This mob could be the next Government they must be held to account if they start building their campaign around a lie. Can’t be allowed another mediscare campaign lie.
I do not actually think it is a good campaign tactic anyway easy disprove and reeks of desperation.
Not good when even the ABC starts pointing out Labor lies.
As long as it doesn’t knock him around too much, Albo catching Covid shouldn’t be much of a setback. Losing a week of campaigning isn’t ideal, but there’s plenty of capable ministers who can step in and Albo can still put out videos and the like during this time. It’s also not the worst time in the campaign for something like this to happen, as it’s almost the weekend, and then we’ve got another public holiday on Monday.
Rakali at 8.01pm
I met an Anglican who was opposed to the ordination of women to the priesthood. He though they should be termed ‘priestesses’. It was his way of belittling their ministry.
I remember how the Australian Anglicans began ordaining women to the priesthood*. Archbishop Peter Carnley (Newcastle boy) was Archbishop of Perth and determined he had episcopal authority to ordain suitable persons to the priesthood, which, it turned out (after fundamentalists had appealed to every conceivable court of the church) he did.
That opened the floodgates for civilised Anglican bishops to ordain women in Australia.
*Anglican fundamentalists have no problem ordaining women as deacons – the lowest rung on their ordained ladder, therefore overseen by a man; also, not a sacramental ministry – not allowed to preside at the eucharist/mass.
Over to you Marles.
Let’s see what you are made of.
>“Since its founding, CSIS “has been dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world”, according to its website.”
Not somewhere I’d head to try and understand China’s efforts to establish and use soft power.
Nonetheless, its well worth a read, especially to contrast with some of the hot-headed rhetoric here. In particular, it makes fairly clear why Australia had little leverage in what happened.
There would always need to be a definition of disability that would entitle one to supports under the NDIS, but the net should be case quite wide.
Swing Required: “Eleanor Hall the latest ex-ABC journalist to get stuck into Andrew Probyn for pro-Government bias.”
Where can I find this?
And how strange is the idea that Probyn has pro-Government bias? Not long ago Probyn, like Emma Alberici, was on the dartboard of the Liberal Government and I think was raised with former CEO Michelle Guthrie by former Chairman Justin Milne.
Steely-liberal-loving-dan squealing about a so-called scare campaign is just funny.
Liberal deputy Chair Pru MacSween displaying appropriate Liberal reaction to Albo coming down with Covid…
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:53 pm
WWP – maybe this article is more to your taste. Apparently the last cannibal was still alive in the SI as late as 1994. Apparently the victims were left to tenderise for 3 or 4 days before eating:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1994-08-14-bk-26840-story.html
”
So those dastardly Americans call SI people as Cannibals?
Lars Von Trier:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:46 pm
Mavis:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:42 pm
______________________
[‘Religious metaphor violation Mavis.
Did you read about the first BRS Witness today?’]
I’m not sure it was a violation, though I’m hedging my bets.
As for Robert-Smith’s witnesses, well they would say that, given they could be in deep nitrogenous waste, urea, salt & water.
Stokes, Palmer might redeem themselves if they were to fess up.
Eleanor Hall
Shocked by bias on @abcnews by @andrewprobyn saying intelligence chiefs will urge Labor to take a similar line on China as the government. Intelligence chiefs have already junked the Liberal #scare campaign that there is a difference. Why is the ABC reviving it? Unimpressed!
JayC I don’t think a FICAC is going to “fix” corruption in politics.
Fundamentally – if the Libs win again its not good for democracy in this country. Basically an entire Labor generation is finished – ie anyone born before 1980 will get turned out. If it does happen the Country will survive however.
Secondly and more importantly, the 2 party system is what’s corrupt – cant be democratic if the govt is formed by a party that represents 1 in 3 voters. We need to change the voting system to some form of proportional representation. Coalition governments work fine in Europe – why not here? After All Australians led the world in electoral reform 100 years ago.
ICAC/IBAC’s are treating the symptoms not the cause – and end up being fee fests for barristers.
And leaving Scott Morrison out on the campaign enables him to sink the Coalition campaign even further. 😐
Classy, McSween, classy!
Lars
I think we are more aligned in views than I realised. We both seem to want a balanced country and contest of ideas and minds. I’ve never quite understood partisan politics, just like I don’t get religion. Glad it helps others though.
Mavis you were convinced that Gladys was going to face criminal charges as a result of ICAC?
Presumably Optus wouldn’t have taken her on where this to be a realistic possibility?
Pure class from MacSween. Touche!
More likely, though, God is a Coalition voter and interceded for this to happen to save the nation from socialists*.
Some degree of sarcasm intended.
When did you first realise you had democratic socialist tendencies freya?
Frydo in the poo again…
Photos of federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg posing with young Scouts will be removed from promotional material in the highly contested seat of Kooyong in Melbourne’s inner east after complaints about children’s images being used for political purposes.
Sources from the Kew scouting community, who requested anonymity, said parents were not consulted about the use of the 2016 photo on signage which appears across the electorate.
A spokesman for Frydenberg’s office said the photo was approved for political use by the Scout leader at the time, but it has since received a request for the images to be taken down.
Scouts Victoria executive manager Jon McGregor did not respond to questions about whether parents were consulted over the use of the photograph, but said it was common for pictures to be taken with politicians from different parties.
“Engagement with politicians is used as an educational tool to help young people understand the political process and for them to put forward their own views about what is important for young people,” he said.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/frydenberg-to-remove-scouts-from-campaign-material-20220421-p5af2a.html
Most female electorate by percentage of enrollment is Richmond and the least female is Sydney….. I wonder why?
The highest rate of Indeterminate/Unknown is Cooper and the lowest is Calwell.
Clearly there is no AFL game on tonight as I am a little bored.
Its pretty amazing sprocket, frydenberg seems to have cornered cancer, labradors and scouts as charities in his corner.
All nice safe causes.
I think all he’s missing is domestic violence / homelessness?
“Should the NDIS be unlimited? Any disability gets funded?”
Disability should be funded by the disability funding scheme, yes.
Frydenberg: If you can’t run your electorate, how can you run the nation’s economy?
WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 6:57 pm
“It is a little left dominated, well, quite.”
Not really it is dominated by labor centrists who are committed to ‘slightly less shit than the LNP’ which is a long long way to the right.
Dyspeptic moaning….The Greens, by running Labor-phobia 24/7, effectively campaign for the re-election of the Lying Reactionaries. They are to the 21st century what the Groupers were in the 20th….splitters. The self-anointing Q-style Blah-Blah Left have done nothing but damage to Labor. This is their plan.
A question for the group.
Why is there no party that aligns with my views? I am socially progressive, experienced, market focused, empathetic. I relate well with old money and homeless.
Australia seems to lack a true centrist party. If there was one, I would actually run for office. I’d bring private and public experience, kindness and an ability to run a business.
I’m a swing voter who sits on the sidelines as I feel neither side is balanced.
Where is my party? I think some
people would like to vote for me.
I think it’s safest to put the Liberals and Nationals last. Their candidates tend to stick with the party whereas the rest tend to splinter quickly and some turn out to be good representatives of their electorates.
WWP and Lars VT
Never mind SI cannibils. This one is from 2001 Germany.
I am a fan of True Crime and no podcast beats the Australian one, Casefile. I have been following this one since the earliest episodes, as well as the anonymous host’s fan club on Facebook (where even hinting at his identity is almost a mob justice event.)
In terms of accidental success through luck, and persistence in developing a quality product Casey (his nickname) has gone from a single guy in the spare room, and with lousy acoustics to an international high-quality podcast maker with followers all over the world, and his own team of researchers, writers, and production staff.
Anyway, this case of cannibalism involved cannibals, willing participants, and websites for them to connect. It was kind of like dating sites, but where one of the parties becomes dinner. There is no reason to think The Dark Web is free of this today!
https://casefilepodcast.com/case-205-bernd-brandes/
Do not listen if you don’t want to hear disturbing content, and never while cooking dinner.
So let’s not think cannibalism is a bygone tribal practice!
Lars
If it was set up and funded as the PC recommended then it wouldn’t be unlimited funding because that is not its intention.
I’m in Richmond and just received a pamphlet from the new National Party chancer Kimberly Hone.
She says she will take the three “critical issues” of “job security, health and housing affordability” to Canberra!!
She claims to be a “supporter of the vulnerable and disadvantaged”.
Really, since when has a National ever championed job security, the vulnerable and disadvantaged.
Well, hope Albo gets back to health soon..
As far as the campaign is concerned the team below Albanese could be all contenders for Labor leadership in any event. A very good outfit as we have seen already.
From a purely practical point of view, if one is going to get sick, most of the seven days are over the Anzac Day weekend….a minimal time in the four weeks or so left…And, as some have already pointed out, Morrison continuing solo has not proved to be the winner it might have been 3 years ago…..He has had a bad week so far, and talks of “reset” should be all on his side rather than that of Labor..
That MacSween dame must be one of those fabled “Compassionate Conservatives” that side of politics believe they have in their midst…Yet to meet one ………….
JayC at 8.39pm
If you were in Wentworth, Kooyong etc etc, I’d suggest supporting a Teal.
IIRC, you’re in ACT?
Perhaps David Pocock for Senate?
Labor strongly favoured to dominate ACT lower house seats, I would think.
has anybody heard about this European offshore processing scheme involving Rwanda? Apparently the UK is funding it and now Denmark is joining in to? There going to dump all the illegals into Rwanda?
Surely not true?
Andrew Bolt and the other right wing fruit cakes on Sky would be absolutely delighted if that happened.
Lars Von Trier
has anybody heard about this European offshore processing scheme involving Rwanda? Apparently the UK is funding it and now Denmark is joining in to? There going to dump all the illegals into Rwanda?
Surely not true?
———-
Afraid so.
It’s called the Australian Solution.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 8:42 pm
Lars
If it was set up and funded as the PC recommended then it wouldn’t be unlimited funding because that is not its intention.
________________________________
But its expanded from the PC definition and costs more now?
Liberal women, BK
They stand out in a crowd
Are people here still being taken in by this JayC troll?
Here we go again says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 8:48 pm
Liberal women, BK
They stand out in a crowd
___________________
Don’t go their again! Remember ?
FS
I was asking myself the same question. Lol!
Steelydan,
Any tactic that get’s your opponent denying they’ll do something is a good thing. So the ALP scaring the oldies with indue cards is good for the ALP because the LNP are heartless and the oldies know it.
Rakali,
All we did was remind the Europeans that they can be bastards like they used to. Anyone remember the charitable organization by the nation of the Dutch East India Company.
“Shocked by bias on @abcnews by @andrewprobyn saying intelligence chiefs will urge Labor to take a similar line on China as the government. Intelligence chiefs have already junked the Liberal #scare campaign that there is a difference. Why is the ABC reviving it? Unimpressed!”
Assuming they can win perhaps an ALP govt can expand the review / cleanout of the corruption and incompetence in the ADF and also have David McBride review / cleanout the intelligence chiefs.
Jayc
I would suspect the ALP would be your party, as it has a right-wing that could align with your business experience. The other way, The Liberal Party, has very little to align with your sense of social justice and compassion.
People seem to think the ALP is one block of stone whereas it is really a wall of pebbles, and each pebble has its own preferences.
In the ALP I can find an outlet for my interests in animal welfare, the environment, education, disability services, refugees, collecting fair taxes, and encouraging green energy. Other people may have different priorities. There is a sub-groups to cater for this. The ALP is like an iceberg, what you see at the top is just a fraction of what it is about.