Polling and other horse race news:
• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.
• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.
• The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.
• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.
• Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.
Nice-looking things on other websites:
• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.
• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.
• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.
Everything else:
• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.
• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.
• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.
Also:
• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.
Fulvio Sammut says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 8:49 pm
Are people here still being taken in by this JayC troll?
_______
Some are just hostile to new people.
Firefox says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 6:33 pm
In stopping the boats, of course the Greens have also been stopped. No boats. No campaign.
The Greens had a chance to ensure that asylum-seekers would not end up in detention. They declined that chance so they might be able to wage their polemical campaign against Labor. This was expedience of the first degree. Really, the detainees have the Greens to thank for the part they played in delivering them into misery.
WeWantPaul ,
The intel community isn’t that corrupt, the real trouble makers are the folks over at home affairs. Who award themselves medals and cover things ups.
If Labor does lose at least I can content myself that Briefly will be suffering.
Nath, I was protecting you! Lol
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 8:12 pm
Liberal deputy Chair Pru MacSween displaying appropriate Liberal reaction to Albo coming down with Covid…
————————
She must have the same “tin ear”as SfM. The Tories show such a lack of empathy, sympathy and understanding of Australians in need. Bushfires, Floods, RAT Tests, people with Disabilities and now Albo crook with COVID.
Terrible horrible descipable people. Turf the bastards out.
I answered Jayc as if he or she was a genuine person asking a question. If he or she is a troll, maybe the information will be of use to someone else.
So it opened up an opportunity if anything. 🙂
Good to see some of our great athletes coming out and agreeing with the PM about trans athletes. I hope Deves pile on continues.
The OZ : – Election 2022: Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan apologises for Nazi social media post :
Good Night Irene!
What do you mean by “unlimited,” Lars?
In preparing an NDIS plan, each therapy, support activity or item needs to be justified and aligned with a small number of goals for participant over the plan period, and with the purpose of the NDIS. It’s your own little cost-benefit analysis, and no-one has access to unlimited funds.
Catherine’s point last night was that it is currently very difficult for some people to get funding for autism supports. I believe this is due to a tension between the idiosyncratic nature of autism (in particular, but most disabilities are like this) and the increasingly process efficiency-driven operation of the NDIA; that is, the NDIA’s attempts to make all of their operations uniform in a non-uniform environment.
The process efficiency drive is coming from management due to operational budget pressures.
The budget pressure is coming from the current LNP Government.
“Defence Minister Peter Dutton has suggested the Solomon Islands government signed a security pact with China after being bribed.”
“ A former diplomat said no evidence had emerged that China bribed politicians but “everyone assumes it does happen”.
“It’s well known that money politics is a huge factor in how decisions are made in Solomon Islands politics. The former diplomat said Chinese businesses and state-owned corporations often made deals with politicians as a starting point for Beijing’s influence peddling.”
Justifying the Coalition’s lack of action Dutton noted “ that New Zealand had not sent its prime minister or foreign minister either.”
And that’s the playing field and those are the rules of the game. Play the game or vacate the field and don’t play the game. It appears Australia chose the latter. And by the way, if Dutton is blaming NZ for not leading then perhaps the Coalition departed the space even earlier than we imagined.
Paywalled
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-suggests-bribes-swayed-solomons-in-china-pact-20220421-p5aezz
Fulvio, I’m actually a human. Only trolled Nath for a second.
If you feel you need proof. Ask for more detail on what I’ve said? I have depth.
This is boring. Holding pattern for another 4 weeks, then the wind up.
TransGate is a distraction and a dogwhistle being pushed by the Government and its media wing.. Why are we talking about it?
One of the fun things about all the independents is their capacity to have no forethought to think about social media years in advance.
Like there are companies that just archive twitter. Get big enough, or leave a post up long enough and bang you’re in the archive. The fact that people think that the internet forgets is just outta this world.
Remember the Binders full of women thing from Mitt Romney’s bid for presidency, that happened because someone watched every hand held youtube clips about him and then started watching cell phone footage of events. They didn’t even have a tip off and it because this huge thing.
Anyway, Monique Ryan is probably toast, unless it was something obviously funny like a Mitchel and Webb meme, but usually Nazi jokes aren’t well done by people.
”
sprocket_says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 8:12 pm
Liberal deputy Chair Pru MacSween displaying appropriate Liberal reaction to Albo coming down with Covid…
”
It appears Libs are parading their ‘Mean Girls’.
Steelydan
I just wish Ms Deves had the conviction of her ‘beliefs’ to join the public debate rather than choosing to hide in her garage when the media was ready to give her such a huge podium from which to air her views. Hiding seems to be the liberal way these days (Cash, Colbeck and Payne included). Just not willing to stand up for whatever it is they pretend to stand for. Lacking courage I guess.
The Richmond electorate is going to be an interesting contest with the well known Mandy Nolan standing as a Greens candidate against the current ALP MP, Justine Elliot.
One expects tight preferencing between the two.
I doubt the Nationals will get much of a look in.
No one is going to convince me that pensioners, including Aged Pensions, will be exempt from the Cashless Welfare Card.
For a start, the Liberals lie and lie all the time. I am awake to the ‘We have no plans to…’ camouflage. The Coalition has form (Never Ever GST)
and finally, THEY HAVE ALREADY PUT IT IN THE LEGISLATION!
If they were not going to do it, they would have amended the legislation that gives them the right to do it.
So I am going to warn people of this, right up to the election, and nothing Morrison can say will assuage my fears or my response.
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:00 pm
________________________
See it was an auction and we were the under-bidder.
Had to laugh, poster saw McSween’s post and replied wtte: Is she blaming a vitamin company?
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:08 pm
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:00 pm
________________________
See it was an auction and we were the under-bidder.
___
We are shit at bribery. No culture of tipping.
Lars Von Trier:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 8:27 pm
[‘Mavis you were convinced that Gladys was going to face criminal charges as a result of ICAC?’]
Please stop the verbalisation. My hope was only that she and her beaux found love – I’m a romantic at heart?
JayC says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 8:39 pm
A question for the group.
……..
You probably have to wait to see if the Teals evolve/transform into a formal political party. Their natural space are the old Hamer/Thomson Liberals (Vic reference, for the less fortunate think Ian McPhee or John Gorton /Don Chipp).
You wouldn’t have to be virulently anti-union, but pro-union would be a bit much.
nath says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:11 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:08 pm
Cronus says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:00 pm
________________________
See it was an auction and we were the under-bidder.
___
We are shit at bribery. No culture of tipping.
_____________
Imagine the parties/ receptions the Chinese Government would throw? You probably get a special private video as a memento/reminder of your time in Beijing/Shanghai?
Re Upnorth at 8.55 pm – A song for dealing with “tin ear” itis
Spooky Men’s Chorale at the National Folk Festival last weekend:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqiDkZN0-6I
A previous, somewhat shorter rendition:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYSkqstXz5w
Background story on the chorale by its originator, Stephen Taberner, is at:
https://spookymen.com/a-history-of-the-spooky-men/?v=6cc98ba2045f
For a moving version of Tennyson’s Crossing the Bar in Ely Cathedral see:
https://spookymen.com/video-of-crossing-the-bar-in-ely/?v=6cc98ba2045f
nath,
We should have had a small army base on SI since the early 90’s. It’s 4 hours flight away from townsville and would have been a great place for a rotation like Butterworth to keep skills up in the regions.
A real failure of policy imagination by our government.
So let me get this straight….
Morrison is warned LAST AUGUST that the Solomons are looking at doing a deal with the Chinese.
He rejects this. Takes no action.
A month ago a draft of the agreement is leaked. Morrison STILL takes no action.
To the present, the deal is about to be signed. Morrison permits his Foreign Minister to attend a fundraiser, and in her place sends the office boy, Zed Seselja, on a mission doomed to fail.
In effect, Morrison permits the deal between the Chinese and the Solomons to be done with the minimum of response, and even that response is at a laughably minor level, as well as being far too late.
And out of all this it’s ANTHONY ALBANESE who is playing interference for the Chicoms?
It’s ANTHONY ALBANESE who is harming Australia’s national interest?
Morrison is the hero here, and if you criticise him, you’re some kind of a “Manchurian Candidate”?
I find this to be a seriously backed-up situation.
ronus says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:00 pm
“Defence Minister Peter Dutton has suggested the Solomon Islands government signed a security pact with China after being bribed.”
“ A former diplomat said no evidence had emerged that China bribed politicians but “everyone assumes it does happen”.
“It’s well known that money politics is a huge factor in how decisions are made in Solomon Islands politics. The former diplomat said Chinese businesses and state-owned corporations often made deals with politicians as a starting point for Beijing’s influence peddling.”
Justifying the Coalition’s lack of action Dutton noted “ that New Zealand had not sent its prime minister or foreign minister either.”
——————————-
Blame New Zealand!! That is just lazy and sheer incompetance. Australias’ largest Defence Base is in Townsville – RAAF Base Townsville and Lavarack Barracks.
Townsville is 1786km from Honiara. Auckland 3389. One would think the Townsville property owning Duttonn would take a greater interest.
https://tfipost.com/2020/07/sexpionage-chinas-dirty-tactic-of-honey-trapping-foreign-politicians-influential-people-and-ccp-dissenters/
Steelydan @ #1005 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 8:57 pm
Just proves they are Transphobes too.
BB, yep, you’ve got that just about right.
And if you want to know the two ministers I will report. It’s Angus and Morton. And neither for matters known in the public domain.
Again, more than happy to take any questions on my comments. I’m a real person. No reason to hide.
PuffyTMD
No one is going to convince me that pensioners, including Aged Pensions, will be exempt from the Cashless Welfare Card.
————-
Of course.
The Party of Robodebt and neoliberalism is going to privatise social security.
That’s what the Indue card is set up to do.
Liberal Party cronies will make many many millions from a taxpayer funded trough of endless gold.
Frydenberg again.
Fraudenberg is proving to be very naughty.
‘Cronus says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:00 pm
“Defence Minister Peter Dutton has suggested the Solomon Islands government signed a security pact with China after being bribed.”
….’
———————————–
Well, that is one way of covering your arse while ensuring the situation is unrecoverable.
Katter has somehow gotten more racist with age hasnt he
Friends to all?
By Mark Iani from Central Honiara
Share Sunday, 27 March 2022 19:06 PM
Hello,
Every time I hear the government talk about the friend to all enemy to none remind me of solfish. Only way solfish make money is to be friendly to all, be enemy to none (no fussy).
So my thinking as man who observe from the street is we have a solfish foreign policy, anyone like come in come, but must pay lelbet coin.
Rakali @ #992 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 8:46 pm
I reckon we could set up a franchise – “Jim’s Migration Services”.
citizen says:
Frydenberg to remove Scouts from campaign material
________________
Guide Dogs, Little kids,
Next we will be hearing of an endorsement of Frydenberg by the Teddy Bears Association of Australia.
I know Lars von Liberal will ignore the evidence so that they can continue to bait individuals here, but this is how long it takes for an ICAC case to make it to the courts after an ICAC investigation:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ex-liberal-staffer-before-court-seven-years-after-icac-warning-about-lying-20210507-p57prv.html
So, that Gladys Berejiklian hasn’t been charged with anything YET by the DPP, especially as she hasn’t even had the report into her time as Premier of NSW released by the NSW ICAC, and that Lars von Liberal is using this fact to question others who believe she ultimately WILL have findings against her made by the ICAC, should just ignore Lars for the above reason. Any case doesn’t happen overnight.
“Jayc
I would suspect the ALP would be your party, ”
wot puff said. 🙂
Worrying times
By John from Australia
Share Saturday, 02 April 2022 10:20 AM
To the beautiful people of the Solomon Islands, wow… money speaks all languages, during ww2 Australians fought and died with the Solomon Islands people.
The Solomon Islands Campaign cost the Allies approximately 7,100 men, 29 ships, and 615 aircraft.
Why does China want the Solomon Islands? Look at other countries that have let China in with Money, THEY CANNOT PAY THE INTEREST,,,, So they give up Land, Ports, etc.
How much aid does Australia give to Solomon Islands?
Australia has long supported Solomon Islands with foreign aid, including an additional $250 million commitment announced in 2019, and the 13-year RAMSI mission to stabilise the country on which Australia expended over two billion dollars.
As an Australian who’s dad and grandfather fought in WW1 and WW2, I feel so sorry for those Islanders that are going to be policed by China, O that’s right their looking after their interests, ON YOUR LAND.
One of many Aussies that feel let down.
Take Care
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:18 pm
Steelydan @ #1005 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 8:57 pm
Good to see some of our great athletes coming out and agreeing with the PM about trans athletes. I hope Deves pile on continues.
Just proves they are Transphobes too.
_____________________________________
The issue of trans people in women’s sport is a specious one. First, the number of people who might be affected in real life is vanishingly small, and even more minuscule in professional sport.
The issue with Deves is that she is a transphobe and a hater of trans people – as evidenced by the tweets that she chose to delete but which still exist. She is using the seemingly arguable issue of fair competition in women’s sport to drive a much more evil agenda.
To describe others who agree (for good or dumb reasons) with the trans people in women’s sport as transphobes is totally wrong and aligns those people with genuine transphobes like Deves.
Let’s stick with the evil comments by this women on trans people in general, rather than take her bait (and Morrison’s) and get embroiled in the totally marginal niche issue of trans women in women’s sport.
Yes indeed, Lars, worrying times for many, including ‘John from Australia’…’One of many Aussies that feel let down’…by the Morrison govt.
From the Solomon Times, sounds like its game on in the week before the election:
In parliament on Tuesday, Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, Douglas Ete made mention that an official group from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs will arrive in Honiara mid-May.
“I also understand that the PRC Foreign Affairs is arriving in Honiara in the middle of May to sign multilateral agreements and cooperation with the Solomon Islands government. That means we will be opening up cooperation in education, cooperation in fisheries and other socio-economic cooperation”, Ete said.
Tomorrow’s Herald editorial: where was Marise Payne?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/better-diplomacy-is-needed-to-curb-china-s-pacific-push-20220421-p5af70.html
Poor Lars, other than provocativeness, there’s nothing much left in the larder.
I’m rich in love Mavis.