Polling and other horse race news:
• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.
• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.
• The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.
• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.
• Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.
Nice-looking things on other websites:
• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.
• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.
• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.
Everything else:
• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.
• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.
• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.
Also:
• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:02 pm
nath, I’m coming down to Melbourne in a couple of weeks. Want to catch up?
That’s something that will horrify the community on here.
”
So he is not a chopped liver? Good to know. 🙂
Has Albo got covid??
If so, poor bugger can’t win a trick..
nath at 7.09pm
‘Kroges’…
I knew some small-L Caulfield Liberals when I lived in Melbourne several decades ago. They were aghast at Kroger engineering Ian McPhee out of Goldstein pre-selection.
Want to know why Victoria is crapola for the Liberal Party? The answer is Kroges!
(Like my paraphrase of Andrew Peacock’s 1984 election ad?)
Chalmers, Plebersek, Wong, Bowen, Marles, Husic can do the heavy lifting for the next week.
How Morrison plays this might be tricky for him.
Snappy Tom @ #882 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 7:10 pm
Oh, I forgot they had progressive views about the Ministry as well as The Uniting Church. 🙂
Totally discussing Facts check on ABC. News re cashless card proposal.. they didn’t even look at one quote from Ruston.. not one
1000% biased report.
https://www.facebook.com/timwattsmp/videos/minister-confirms-cashless-welfare-card-for-pensioners/332582081883885/
HT Mark Jacka
@AlboMP has Covid & won’t be meeting or mingling with the public for the next 7 days.
@ScottMorrisonMP doesn’t have Covid & won’t be meeting or mingling with the public for the rest of the Election.
#auspol
Jason Clare, he is bloody good
I think the Liberal party will just continue on with the unrebutted ad campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsCIdRvfNcg
Labor’s done some personal attacks on Morrison but ain’t no theme gene.
No movement in the polls.
We need some State polls.
“ The more time Morrison is in the spotlight the less the public like him. ”
Didn’t his approval ratings improve during the first week?
Lars Von Trier says:
“nath, I’m coming down to Melbourne in a couple of weeks. Want to catch up?
“That’s something that will horrify the community on here.”
What happens on tour stays on tour.
JayC says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:22 pm
Nath, I was trolling you. Lol
________
Well that is a blessed relief.
Sprocket, AE – Aussie cossack was arrested today at a Fiona Martin function in Reid. Perhaps he’s working for Labor (except KK)?
So Albo being indisposed, let us see how SfM is prepared to treat him during a time when sympathy would normally be extended to someone who is ill.
It’s going to be an absolute pleasure to put this individual right at the bottom of my ballot…
NSW Nationals candidate tells congregation of her aim to ‘bring God’s kingdom’ to politics
The National party’s candidate for the marginal northern New South Wales seat of Richmond told worshippers at a Pentecostal church that her “ultimate goal” in politics was to “bring God’s kingdom to the political arena”.
The comments by the endorsed Nationals candidate, Kimberly Hone, have emerged alongside a series of old social media posts described by her opponents as “repulsive”, and include a post with a broken Facebook link from 2017 that says “one way to avoid domestic violence is to marry well”.
Hone’s past Twitter posts include articles that describe transgender surgery as “mutilation”; articles questioning the parenting abilities of lesbian couples; articles that question human-made global heating; and claims in 2014 that “integration has failed”.
Hone appears to have deleted dozens of detailed blogs and videos on these same issues, but some Twitter posts remain online.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/21/nsw-nationals-candidate-tells-congregation-of-her-aim-to-bring-gods-kingdom-to-politics
AEC
The numbers are in – 17,228,900 Australians are enrolled to vote in the 2022 Federal Election. That’s more than 800,000 more voters than 2019, with an enrolment rate of 96.8%.
Australians have stepped up to enrol for 2022. Well done! #auspol
https://t.co/dXBSlYUWof
Its all very well for Alex Greenwich and Greg Piper to be ‘appalled’ at Perottet’s support for Deves. What more do they need for them to pull their support?
The 93 seat Assembly has a cross bench of 11 (3 of them Greens). 10 of them switching would mean a Labor minority govt. Not completely impossible.
How about Greenwich and Piper get the ball rolling? (Piper certainly won’t lose his Lake Macquarie-based seat over it, I don’t see Greewich losing Sydney, either.)
“Totally discussing Facts check on ABC”
I originally thought fact check was a really good idea, that could help overcome the ABC’s institutional need to find any balance even completely obviously false balance (as best shown it the decades it treated climate denier conspiracies as equal to actual science).
The reverse has largely been true. If anything fact check falls into the false balance failure more often not less often.
Nothing scientific but my personal impression is that it systemically fails in story/issue selection as well.
It is worse than useless.
Actually I heard the AEC saying they missed about 500,000 18 yr olds in the enrolment. In a close election that probably means the difference between victory and defeat.
The Liberals are probably quietly chuffed at the enrolment result.
Morrison seems to be having a lot of bad luck with his ‘close colleagues’ nowadays.
“The Liberals are probably quietly chuffed at the enrolment result.”
Nothing quiet or secret about the LNPs willingness to disenfranchise voters if it thinks it will get an advantage out of it.
Firefox at 7.33pm
Your comment about the extraordinarily undeserving LNP candidate for your area has reminded of something I want to register here.
The notion of putting one of the major parties last concerns me.
For example, I think the Morrison govt is a disgrace, but I will preference L/NP ahead of the likes of UAP and PHON. So, maybe I’ll put L/NP 3rd last.
Does anyone have a different perspective that might change my view? (Note, I’ll be voting 1 Labor, surprise surprise…)
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:05 pm
Ven says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 6:58 pm
Lars
Albanese got COVID. (hand wringing emoji). Is Albanese not very careful to avoid getting it? Is it over for ALP?
_________________________
I think it will be ok ven.
I can’t decide is it Carter/Reagan 1980 or Bush/Kerry 2004. In other words is Albo Reagan or Kerry in this scenario?
”
Albanese is non of those pesky Americans. It is quite possible he is Howard in 1996. But things are changing very fast in this campaign. So who knows.
The longer the campaign, the more Morrison will be revealed for the false prophet he undoubtedly is. How the average punter fell for his sophistry is beyond belief – that he’s even in contention.
Good summary article re Solomon Islands. Sounds like a very complex scenario. More to play out.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/deep-roots-solomon-islands-ongoing-political-crisis
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:10 pm
nath says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:09 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:02 pm
nath, I’m coming down to Melbourne in a couple of weeks. Want to catch up?
That’s something that will horrify the community on here.
___________
Let’s meet up at the Melbourne Club with Kroges!
____________
Excellent – we can review the on-line strategy over suitable French
———————————
Melbournes’ famous Mercury infested Gummie Shark Fish n Chips with a couple of bottles of Château Mouton Rothschild to wash it down.
Mavis says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:42 pm
The longer the campaign, the more Morrison will be revealed for the false prophet he undoubtedly is. How the average punter fell for his sophistry is beyond belief – that he’s even in contention.
______________________
Religious metaphor violation Mavis.
Did you read about the first BRS Witness today?
SfM doubtless feels “blessed” that he got covid a while ago but Albo is in isolation during the campaign. Probably is wearing out the carpet on his knees praying to thank the Good Lord.
Well said BK, ALP has the talent on its front bench to really smoke out the tired and intellectually uninspired LNP characters like Birmingham, Michaela, Payne and especially Taylor. I would not be surprised if this lot are under whip and yell by the time Albo is back on the trail.
Watch for the last week dirt campaign ven.
“The notion of putting one of the major parties last concerns me.
For example, I think the Morrison govt is a disgrace, but I will preference L/NP ahead of the likes of UAP and PHON. So, maybe I’ll put L/NP 3rd last.”
***
Yeah, it’s always hard to pick who actually goes last when there’s three deserving contenders for the wooden spoon.
“Since its founding, CSIS “has been dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world”, according to its website.”
Not somewhere I’d head to try and understand China’s efforts to establish and use soft power.
Mavis says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:42 pm
The longer the campaign, the more Morrison will be revealed for the false prophet he undoubtedly is. How the average punter fell for his sophistry is beyond belief – that he’s even in contention.
—————————
Mr Speaker, I second the motion
Eleanor Hall the latest ex-ABC journalist to get stuck into Andrew Probyn for pro-Government bias.
citizen says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:47 pm
Dog’s Brunch says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:33 pm
So Albo being indisposed, let us see how SfM is prepared to treat him during a time when sympathy would normally be extended to someone who is ill.
SfM doubtless feels “blessed” that he got covid a while ago but Albo is in isolation during the campaign. Probably is wearing out the carpet on his knees praying to thank the Good Lord.
———————
No no Citizen. Wrong bunch. He be a happy clapping and talking in tongues.
Oliver Sutton @ #910 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 7:31 pm
That’s something that will horrify Melbourne. 😐
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
The betting markets are speaking!
The Albo COVID effect: Dont wait for polls or ‘analysis’ from political pundits for guesses on the impact of Albo’s COVID on the election. The impact is fully reflected in market changes. So far – zero, zip. No change.
Labor $1.83
Coaltion $2.20
I’ve just checked out the NSW cross bench and 2 of the 11 are ‘Liberal/Independents’ – by virtue of ICAC.
So, Labor minority very, very difficult. Now, if at least one of those two was small-L…
The markets haven’t moved fir a couple of days….
“For example, I think the Morrison govt is a disgrace, but I will preference L/NP ahead of the likes of UAP and PHON. So, maybe I’ll put L/NP 3rd last.”
That has always been my practice too, and while I’d acknowledge the LNP don’t say the bad bits out loud like Palmer and Onenation do, I’m not sure in substance they are any better, they may even be worse.
Pauline might have started the discussion but it was Howard that deliberately lied and created the environment in which Australia embraced torture and killing of refugees as a good thing.
WWP – maybe this article is more to your taste. Apparently the last cannibal was still alive in the SI as late as 1994. Apparently the victims were left to tenderise for 3 or 4 days before eating:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1994-08-14-bk-26840-story.html
Lots of talk about Morrison’s language on NDIS in progressive media today. Precious little on the fact that they are hell-bent on cutting it and number 1 on that list is autism. A rolled-gold question for Labor. Culture war conversations favour conservatives. The left sounds too much time talking about things people don’t want them to talk about, like attacking people’s language, and not enough on things they do want them to talk about, like health.
citizen @ #919 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 7:40 pm
That would be his CoS then? 😐
Where was the Ay Bee Fucking Cee in 2019 when people who didn’t have two bob to their name were mobilised to defend their totally imaginary franking credits?
The media stick to this whole “Mediscare” thing like shit to a blanket. It’s the one thing they’ve got that in their minds enables them to cancel out every scare the liberal party has perpetrated on the community since Menzies.
“Eleanor Hall the latest ex-ABC journalist to get stuck into Andrew Probyn for pro-Government bias.”
He came from 7West Stokes Inc, it is a feature chosen by the ABC not a bug.
If anything he has surprised me a bit by being better than I expected, but I put that mainly down to humility (which is great) and lack of ability (less great).
Snappy Tom @ #936 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 7:52 pm
No, they’re both dependent on the grace and favour of the Premier not kicking them out of parliament when he should have.
BSA Bob @ #941 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 7:55 pm
Yep. 100% bloody schtum about the Death Tax scare from 20 freaking 19, fcs!
NSW ICAC commissioner. ..
“Contrary to some of the wild accusations sometimes levelled at the commission, we will only make serious adverse findings against anyone when we have cogent evidence … because of the importance of personal reputation.”
“Precious little on the fact that they are hell-bent on cutting it and number 1 on that list is autism.”
My personal experience with NDIS and autism was that it already (going back 6 years or so) failed to fund a range things that would really help and funneled a huge amount of money into private companies who provided relatively little, if any value.
“Yep. 100% bloody schtum about the Death Tax scare from 20 freaking 19, fcs!”
And 2022.